Thursday Forecast

74 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
The rain event that was a combination of moisture from TD Erin and a cold front is exiting via Cape Cod first thing this morning, and today will turn into a fantastic late summer day, though there will still be some humidity in the air to start, it will be drying out gradually as high pressure builds, and this will continue, with warm air, through Friday. A trough will swing through the region from northwest to southeast Friday night, but looks like it will bring only some cloudiness but no rainfall. High pressure builds in for 2/3 of the Labor Day Weekend with nice but somewhat cooler weather Saturday and Sunday. Another low pressure trough will bring more cloudiness and this time the risk of a few showers by Labor Day Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with showers Cape Cod very early, otherwise clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65 Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. More humid. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Something going on far south of New England, that is Hurricane Dorian likely impacting Florida at some point on the Labor Day Weekend, will have implications for what goes on up here sometime during this period, which likely starts out warming up and turning more humid September 3-4 as high pressure sinks to the south. A front then approaches from the northwest in the September 5-7 period and could do anything from moving swiftly through to slowing down, with the complicating factor of remnant moisture from Dorian possibly getting involved, so this part of the forecast is very much up in the air at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
However things work out in the previous period, we likely see a shot of drier air to start this period then a warm-up and increasing humidity as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

      1. Thank you, TK. I was trying to figure out the word.

        My mind went to aerial but I see it is AREA with an L oddly on the end. L being large area – Vicki’s thought process.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Well so much for a PRE, at least in the Boston Area. At home, my lawn received
    a decent drink of 0.85 inch, but it was a far cry from what I actually expected. Some models were predicting 5 inches (NWS said a general 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts). The HRRR was all over the place, but one run showed 0.84 for Boston. I guess that was the good one.

    Looking at radars late last night, it looked like far SE MA and the Cape and Islands
    were in line to possibly receive real PRE amounts. Not sure if it materialized or not?

    To me, the PRE set up more to the East than some models forecast.

    regarding DORIAN….
    Latest NHC forecast is for DORIAN to become a MAJOR hurricane and strike
    somewhere on the FL coast at 125 mph. Long way from the dissipating
    system North of Hispanola. Eh?

    Let’s see what actually happens with Dorian.

    2. Ah, thanks Vicki !

      I’d say I was under that 1.94 to 1.96 inches southwest of Plymouth. The rain came in waves yesterday. 2pm ish, again around 5pm, then sometime between 2 and 4 in the morning. Lightning was occasional on the western horizon after midnight.

      And it sure did get oppressively humid for a while overnight !

  8. Thanks TK.

    I would say the PRE did underperform, but it wasn’t a complete no-show. The idea I put forth yesterday of many areas under an inch but local stripes of 2-5” seemed to work out decently, although I only saw a couple isolated totals over 3” and none over 4. Needed rain after recent dryness though. All eyes on Dorian now….

  9. Noticing that sharp right hand turn in the projected track of the 00z EURO.

    So, at some point, the collapsing of the atlantic ridge and the sinking of the northern jet stream could be in play here.

    If those things can trend towards happening earlier in the forecast period, even by 24 hrs, perhaps Dorian can make its northward turn east of Florida, instead of over Florida.

    2. One never knows with these Tropical Systems.

      We’ll certainly have to watch.

      Unless something really changes, does not appear to be destined to
      come up here.

        2. Thank you. I had a feeling maybe it was. I can say I’m happy my girls and their families are home from Disney.

  11. Thanks TK!
    The rain event was in line with what was forecast for my area, ended with a grand total of 1.73” in the rain bucket. Nice drink for the lawns.

  13. This storm has misbehaved. It was to track between Puerto Rico and hispaniola instead it went across western st Thomas with wind gusts up to 120

    1. Indeed. This looks like a major event unfolding. Whether Cat 3 or 4 they’re both destructive.

      About 2 weeks ago Barry B said the tropics would get active by this time. He also said we’d have record heat in late August. Oh well, can’t be right all the time.

  15. Thank you, TK, for all your hard labor as we approach Labor Day weekend. Every day you provide a detailed forecast with explanations that even the lay person like myself can understand. Every day you offer your insights on the models, the climate, what to expect long-range, etc … You do this even in times of less-than-stellar health. I just want to say/reiterate we all very much appreciate what you do and how you’ve created a WHW community.

    2. It’s a pleasure honestly. I’ve always loved to do things like this. You can ask my mom about my forecasts from a manual typewriter on different colored paper affixed to the refrigerator by magnet when I was in middle school. 😉

  17. The PRE actually behaved about as expected, at least my expectations. I know some were thinking the entire state was going to get 2-5 inches of rain or something, but in my mind, no. That was not expected. More like good coverage of 1/2 inch to 1 inch rains with areas of heavier rain. That’s basically what we had. This was not a solid juiced up PRE, just a noticeable one.

    Does anybody who was around for it remember the PRE we had just before Hurricane Belle arrived in August 1976?

      1. Poured like crazy on that Sunday, more rain than the ‘cane brought, or what was left of it.

        I still feel that yesterday’s event was nothing surprising. The models had clearly over-forecast rainfall as they often do.

    2. It is what I had thought we were to expect. WxW also said a swipe or stripe (something along that line) and never full state.

      I don’t recall 1976 but I was in California. I seem to recall the thought was we would have a hurricane here and windows were being taped when we left. BUT that could have been on another trip west.

      1. It was kind of funny as a kid seeing all the tape! That was the big thing then. Tape the windows. All the stores ran out of masking tape! There were photos in the paper of all windows taped in big X’s with tape. You never hear that now though.

        And yes you are correct. WxW alluded to an area of heavier, which there was. I can’t remember how I worded it but hope that it was sufficient not to make people expect everybody was going to max out.
        🙂

        And they did the right thing issuing the flood watch, which is certainly not a warning. 🙂

        1. And I learned a new word.

          No one here made it seem more than it was….not you or WxW certainly

          We haven’t had the need to tape recently. Boarding is common. Not sure what folks do in more prone areas.

          We made the mistake of taping a big picture window once. I am not sure we ever got the tape residue off. I suppose it does keep the glass from shattering all over the house.

          2. It would be very rare to have windows blow in during a hurricane up here. Most of the time it would be from being hit with debris.

  18. One note…
    It would be wise not to get too hung up on medium range model runs of what Dorian does next week. We know these models will come up with every conceivable scenario run to run, all except possibly one of which will be incorrect. 🙂

  19. TK…
    Can you remind me again what ensemble models are vs. a “regular” model run?
    Are ensemble models “spaghetti” models?
    Please use an easy-to-understand explanation for a novice such as I.

    1. “Spaghetti” models are not a type of model but a plot of a bunch of different model tracks, because of their natural variance, appear like a pile of spaghetti.

      Ensembles are not the same as spaghetti as you are thinking of them. You can create a similar plot with ensembles, but an ensemble is a set of runs from ONE model with slightly different initial conditions. The idea is to come up with a consensus outcome, which should be reasonably accurate.

      I hope that helps. I wrote this on the fly right after a blood test and before updating the blog before I take off to work for 6 hours before a quick meeting ends my week. Wheeee!

  20. Regarding Hurricane Belle 1976, I don’t recall any PRE rains associated with her. The only aspect I recall is that it quickly fizzled out after all the usual media hype. I was sort of bummed out as it would have been my first hurricane experience since I was not born during the 1950’s and the 1960’s were very void of tropical activity around here.

    Yes, I remember the run on tape for windows back then. All tv/radio newscasts encouraged homeowners do it. My next door neighbor at the time taped all his windows but I don’t recall that we did.

    TK – Does taping windows really work to prevent window damage or was that just an urban myth that had gotten out of control?

    1. The idea was to prevent shattering which it probably would only do in a limited sense.

      You have to completely cover the window in tape to assure yourself of no glass shards.

        1. Here you go Philip. This is 20 feet long, at least four feet deep, and goes back maybe 10 or so feet. It came down, bounced off of deck below and then back into the six foot picture window. If I hadn’t out down plastic in the family room, glass would have been everywhere. Safety glass breaks in millions of small pieces

          https://imgur.com/a/OyZd9OW

            1. No problem. My thought is first to board up but had that been boarded, the ice would have pushed it in. As a huge tree would. If major storm with large trees nearby, I’d tape and board. I sure would not do nothing

              Our roof guy was coming back next day. My mistake was not insisting he do something that day. Thank heavens I put plastic down. This came through at 2 am

              1. I need to add that taping won’t protect your window. It will only mitigate…not eliminate….the tiny pieces that safety glass breaks into

    2. Having had a massive ice dam come through a six foot picture window, I can tell you that you do one of two things. Tape the window or move all furniture away and put down plastic tarps. A better bet in areas where you expect more is to board the window.

  22. TK, it’s very cool you still have the forecasts you typed (IBM Selectric, perhaps) back in middle school.

  23. TK – I am somewhat surprised that you remember Belle enough to actually apply it to meteorology without doing historical research. Weren’t you rather young, relatively speaking?

  27. I know we been focusing on Dorian but i have been watching next wednesday for the past few days and it looks interesting for severe weather. High cape, good shear. snd decent lapse rates along a coldfront. SPC also mentions a possobility in their day 5 or 6 discussion.

    2. That setup may look extremely different pending the outcome of the track of that hurricane.

      1. i know this is WAYY out there but do you see a potential for that day?

        btw have you seen the latest Euro? shows dorian hitting us as a hurricane lol
        fat chance of that happening

          1. nova scotia gets absolutely hammered in this run. i know this will probably never happen but it’s fun to watch

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