Friday Forecast

136 Comments

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
This forecast period includes the 3 day Labor Day Weekend and the 2 days that border it. Maybe you made it an extra long weekend? I didn’t. I’m actually working Labor Day itself, but you don’t care about that .. “just get to the weather TK!” Ok ok! Here we go. High pressure centered to the south dominates today which will be a very warm and slightly humid day, typical of late August. A weak cold front passes by late today and kicks off no more than a brief isolated shower over north central and northeastern MA and southern NH. I didn’t have these in the forecast on yesterday’s blog but I am adding them because the moisture is borderline and I don’t want people to see one and think the weekend is about to go downhill. If you see one, 5 minutes, maybe 10, and gone. Behind this front comes another high pressure area for Saturday with slightly cooler and drier air, but still very nice if you have beach plans. As we get deeper into the holiday weekend, that high will slip off to the east and we’ll turn the wind more easterly by Sunday and southeasterly by the holiday itself on Monday, when a warm front will be approaching. So we’ll see some cloudiness and slightly cooler air Sunday although it will still be a very nice day. By Monday, more in the way of cloudiness will be noted and the wet weather threat will increase as a warm front approaches. If we get a period of rain it should hold off until later in the day, based on current timing. It’s very hard to string together 3 completely dry days in New England at any time of year, but overall this particular holiday weekend will be quite nice. By Tuesday, post warm frontal passage, we’re back in warm air and increased humidity but with fair weather as a southwesterly flow takes over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny with the exception of some clouds and a possible brief shower southern NH and north central to northeastern MA late afternoon.
Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Risk of light rain, especially afternoon/evening. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Hurricane Dorian’s path will have an impact on the outlook for this period. The storm is expected to impact Florida around Labor Day but what it does after that is still uncertain. It is possible that remnant moisture arrives here by the weekend of September 7-8, but that could just as easily head somewhere else ranging from the Ohio Valley to out to sea south of New England. So the outlook for those days is very unclear as of now. Before that, expect a warm/humid September 4 with a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible as a cold front moves through, then high pressure to bring pleasant weather for September 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Currently expecting a flat ridge of high pressure and a general west to east flow with a fairly dry and warm stretch, but this can also change with respect to the remains of Dorian and how it can potentially alter the pattern. So the forecast is low to moderate confidence at this time.

136 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. This doesn’t mean anything really, but SAK noticed (and then showed me) that the old GFS, or “GFS Legacy” was the first model (about 5 days ago) to show what is very close to the current NHC forecast track. 😉 We won’t have this old model around for winter though. It’ll be in the trash heap in a matter of days.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Please keep Dorian’s winds away from the Carolinas northward into SNE. I guess we can’t stop his moisture. That’s OK.

    Poor Florida. Another Andrew? 🙁

    2. He actually posted recently. I don’t remember the exact date, but it was
      within the last week for sure.

    3. I’m still hangin around, lurking mostly. Not much time anymore with a new baby and a terrible 2 running my life.

    1. Dorian will likely make even more history than Andrew just in terms of areal coverage. Iirc Andrew only affected the extreme southern tip of Florida. Almost missed the state entirely, correct?

      1. 27 year’s worth of additional construction and thus that
        many more people in harms way, so you could be 100% correct.
        It is still too early to know, but it is not out of the question
        that Miami could take a direct hit.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    I love your insights and style here, TK…

    If you have a second, can you explain the difference of an ensemble models and a “regular” model? Are ensemble models spaghetti models?

    No golf in Norton this weekend for the first time since 2003. The PGA changed up its schedule and now that playoff tournament is the Northern Trust that will be rotated year-to-year with New Jersey/New York and Norton as the hosts. The Northern Trust is the second weekend of August.

    Four-day weekend after three days of teacher meetings and workshops. Students start Tuesday.

    How was your first week, Tom?

    Enjoy the day and weekend!

  9. Thanks TK
    Andrew made landfall near Homestead Florida as a category 5 storm. Andrew raced across the southern part of Florida. Dorian could be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the eastern part of Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

        1. Water temp has nothing to do with the shear. It is all about what is going on above the surface.

          There “could” be some Northerly shear as it approaches
          Florida. That is what they need and they need it to
          be strong.

  11. Thank you, TK.

    Someone posted something about the potential for a hurricane to hit Nova Scotia at a certain point. This does happen. I recall that Hortense in 1996 hit Nova Scotia hard, after grazing the Cape.

        1. Yes, the High over Bermuda is strengthening, thus
          forcing Dorian more to the South. We shall see as Dorian will do what Dorian wants to do.

  13. The worse part for the people in Florida is Dorian is forecasted to hand around which means more time dealing with storm surge, damaging winds, heavy rainfall which will lead to flooding, and with any landfalling tropical system the threat for some isolated weak tornadoes. What is ever left of Dorian the 0z EURO has it taking a track offshore of SNE.

  15. The one thing right now is no model solution is good for the state of Florida. If we could wishcast we would all be hoping for a turn out to sea but that option does not look likely.

  16. 1992…might as well be 1972. Fortunately we have come a long ways in forecasting and warnings since then. Not to mention such changes in society as well.

  17. MOST Interesting….. 12Z NAM
    Yes, I know it is NOT a hurricane model nor should it be taken as reliable.
    I show this as a “what if” possibility. This could spare South Florida as it shows
    Dorian taking a turn to the SW and then South at the last minute before striking
    Florida.

    https://imgur.com/a/CuI0wvP

  24. It should be noted based on current track that when it gets into the Orlando area still forecasted to be a category 1 hurricane. There is no model solution that is good for the state of Florida at this current time.

  26. This is not a tweet that you want to see from Levi Cowan a graduate student studying tropical cyclones at Florida State University
    The GFS forecasts nearly uniform flow with height in #Dorian’s environment Monday evening, indicating a highly favorable environment for strengthening as the storm approaches the northern Bahamas. Dangerous situation unfolding.

  27. Captain… Unless it didn’t send I answered your question on the previous blog.

    Ace posted once last week, as did SAK. They pop in now and again!

    1. Ahh, I answered his question below as I didn’t see your response on the previous blog either until just now.

  28. Captain Fantastic – regarding your question on models and ensembles:

    Models such as the GFS, Euro, and CMS have one standard “operational” run and then numerous “ensemble” runs. Each ensemble is run with the input parameters slightly tweaked from the operational to account for possible model errors during initialization. Typically all the ensemble runs are then averaged together into a “mean” which usually serves as a good alternative forecast from the operational model. In fact, at longer lead times, the ensemble means are typically more reliable than the operational runs.

    “Spaghetti” models are just the graphics you see that show a compilation of all the individual model runs on one map. These typically only come out during hurricane season as there are a lot of models out there (besides the standard operational ones that we use all year) that specialize in tropical system forecasts.

      1. Which no landfall idea? The one presented by the
        Hurricane useless NAM?
        A new one as yet untold?

        By missing land, it sure doesn’t look like a turn OTS is
        in the cards. The only possibility is a turn to the South, is it not?

        Would this be the first time in History the NAM is onto
        something in the Hurricane realm?

        You have doth confusededededededed me. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. The one that myself and a colleague have been talking about behind-the-scenes for 36 hours. 😉

            1. So the Western Atlantic ridge
              will continue to build and sink Southward
              forcing Dorian to turn to the SW and
              then South, then who knows where?

              How could it be anything else if it
              is to miss Florida???

              UNLESS
              Something builds to the West and forces
              Dorian to turn more Northward,then
              NE and MISS land all together??????

              1. I see a pretty Good ridge building
                in the US South West. IF that
                were to protrude Eastward just enough, it could influence Dorian
                to just slide off shore of Florida.

                Hmmmm

  31. We are heading up to north central Maine this afternoon for a wedding on Sunday and are going to make a long weekend out of it. Going to do some hiking at Baxter State Park tomorrow. Weather looks great and fall like up there with highs in the upper 60’s-low 70’s and lows in the 40’s and 50’s. Probably wont be able to check in much on the storm here as I’m sure service will be sketchy!

  34. Dave..

    It is entirely possible that the center of Dorian never reaches the coast. However that does not mean there will not be significant impact, should that scenario come to fruition.

    1. Well, what are you thoughts on what happens, where does it go?
      And what causes it to do so. I know it is not cast in stone, but you
      do have thoughts on the matter. thanks

      1. I can copy a tweet, but don’t know how to capture the URL

        Pete Bouchard

        Steering currents go limp as #Dorian nears the Florida Peninsula. Essentially means the storm could slow to a crawl. Likely to be a terrible outcome for the east coast of Florida.

  37. Mark, Baxter State Park is one of the world’s wonders. Katahdin is a magnificent mountain. I’m glad wi-fi is still sketchy there.

  44. Euro has Dorian staying OFF shore of SC/NC as well. Surely there will be impacts,
    but the whole East coast from Florida to NC spared the worst of it on this run.

    TK, You da man!!!!

      1. Looks like close enough for impacts, but enough off shore to
        prevent a catastrophe. Still, it is only one model, but it happens
        to be a very good one.

        1. Thanks JPD. It sure is fun watching it unfold. I appreciate all of the information you and others provide.

      1. if it is 949, that is a CAT 3.

        Category 3 Hurricane
        Category 3 and above are considered major hurricanes. The maximum sustained wind speed is 111–129 mph. Damage from this category of hurricane is devastating:

        Mobile homes destroyed or heavily damaged
        Major damage to framed homes
        Many uprooted trees and blocked roads
        Complete power outages and unavailability of water for several days to weeks
        Coastal storm surge reaches 9–12 feet and the barometric pressure is approximately 964–945 millibars.

        Hurricane Katrina, which struck Louisiana in 2005, is one of the most devastating storms in U.S. history, causing an estimated $100 billion in damage. It was rated Category 3 when it made landfall.

    1. Awesome, thanks Sue. I had no idea. I’ll keep my eyes peeled Saturday night. Looks like a nice clear might.

  48. 12z EURO track looks similar to Matthew a few years ago where it stayed just off the east coast of Florida.

    1. Indeed it does. I’ve been talking about this scenario with a fellow met for a couple days and that was one of the storms I brought up.

  49. Started out nice & dry this morning in Boston etc., dew point in middle 50s, but now it’s creeping toward and over 60. But that will be short-lived. Drier air is just a few hours away.

    The only thing that remains to be seen is if any showers pop up on the boundary as it crosses the region from now through this evening. So far there is nothing (as of 3:15PM).

    1. Great day on the south coast of RI.just got out of the ocean water temp72°. Hopefully it will warm up a bit more with next weeks warm weather. Probably a losing battle with lower sun angle.

      1. No big impact yet from the sun angle. It’s so very subtle at first, with the warmest water from August going into and sometimes through the first half of September.

  52. From NWS Boston in regards to Dorian
    Then by late next week/weekend will be watching Dorian. Lots of uncertainty at this time range especially where will Dorian be at day 6? Then next question is the timing and amplitude of northern stream trough over the Great Lakes. Will this trough have enough amplitude to capture Dorian? Way too early to answer these questions.

    1. I think I would have waited until Monday for that, but it is what it is.

      I’ll venture a forecast and say they won’t have winds above 25-30 MPH in gusts from this event, and a couple bands of showers/thunderstorms.

        1. IF a landfall happens, Monday night or Tuesday. Impact should be in that time frame. The thing is, that area that cancelled already will probably end up well outside the zone of anything different than “typical Florida weather”. They definitely did not need to cancel today for next Tuesday.

    2. If they have to evacuate, especially the keys, it should start now. Ted had a place in islamorda. The photo I put on FB this am was taken when we stayed there in 1968

      1. Evacuating the keys would probably put people in more danger, since they would end up heading toward where the storm is more likely to impact, and could end up on the same roads that others that are in more danger need to use for evacuation. If the keys needed to evacuate, they could probably start that late Saturday or Sunday, based on current storm timing.

        1. The back up makes sense. But The rest of FL should absolutely be starting voluntary evac tomorrow morning.Latest That only gives them a bit more than two days. . That would put folks from keys behind them. Rule of thumb for the seasoned folks in Charleston anyway was furthest away start first. Otherwise your scenario would certainly play out. I know you know a good portion of the problem with Katrina was the fact they not only started evac too late but didn’t open all highways out. Any success with Hugo and some other hurricanes was because evac started early.

          Either way….as you know…they have disaster plans and I sure won’t second guess them

          1. Either way it takes school out of the picture and gives people time to prepare. I’m hearing some gas stations in key west are already out of gas

  54. Latest NHC forecast is even slower, and eventually a turn to the north a bit further east than the previous outlooks. That is heading in the direction of the scenario described above, and if the trend continues, it will be better news for Florida.

  55. Reminder: The NAM is not for forecasting tropical cyclones. It always turns them to the southwest and south in this set-up and it’s incorrect.

  56. Heading to Hampton Beach for the evening. I’ll be checking the blog from time to time!

  59. If I’m not mistaken, didn’t the 1938 Hurricane “miss” Florida and literally shot northward around high pressure?

    1. Just about all New England hurricanes don’t really have any impact on Florida. The 1938 hurricane turned northward east of the Bahamas, then accelerated.

  60. How ironic that much of the Florida peninsula is going to have fabulous weather for nearly the entire Labor Day Weekend. Even if the hurricane was going to fully make it there, it won’t be until pretty much after the weekend is over, and now it may be only some outer bands that reach central and northeastern Florida, and of course pretty rough surf all along the eastern shoreline.

    This may be one of the better examples of how computer models not designed to forecast tropical systems were a major deciding factor in hundreds of thousands of people altering their plans. Not saying the decision was right or wrong, just pointing out the impact that these models (through their interpretation and media delivery) now have on the population. It’s rather fascinating if you think about what’s actually going on there.

    1. I think it is disgusting. It’s a shame actually.

      For now anyway, it looks like a hit in SC is a possibility, but I wouldn’t
      take anything now as a certainty. This system has been tricky all along.

      1. As always, the approach should be cautious, KNOWING model limitations, knowing that subtle speed changes in the storm while it’s still days away can have a huge impact on the eventual outcome. For some reason, there is this repeating mistake of looking at medium range models and deciding they are the outcome and we know it days in advance. Mets like SAK, WxW, JMA, and I caution about this. The people here understand it, but unfortunately we’re not going to be too successful in reaching the masses with reasonable information because media drowns out voices of reason. Think about it. These instances are increasing. We had a couple last year. We had a glaring example very similar to this in Matthew in 2016. Now I don’t want to say too much because we are still a few days away from seeing this all play out, but it’s pretty obvious now that FL is going to be spared a direct hit and may be spared even a lot of the “side-effects”.

        1. Totally agree. Pretty sad.

          I am so happy that we have the voice of reason available
          to us here. 🙂

  61. I am updating now. Have been multi-tasking. I’ve been sick for 4 days, not severely. I thought it was allergies but I think it’s a “slow-burn” virus. I’ve still been able to work, go out, etc. Just a lot of sinus issues and body aches. No fever that I have detected. It’s almost like a miniature flu. But yet I’m functional. So I’m waiting for my tea to brew (I don’t usually drink this particular one but it’s good when you have sinus issues) and it takes TEN min to brew, but it took me that long to realize that the water wasn’t in the cup yet… So now it’s a 20 min wait for a cup of tea which is long even for this patient soul. 😉

    So yes, I’m updating…right after I get my tea… HAHAHA

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