Saturday Forecast

47 Comments

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Labor Day Weekend: 2 1/2 out of 3 ain’t bad? Looks like a decent weekend, really, for southeastern New England. Our unsettled weather will probably hold off until most activities have wrapped up and people who were away are on their way back home, as a warm front crossing the region Monday brings a wet weather threat, but a lot of it probably waiting until later in the day or nighttime to pass through this area. Before that, it’s all about high pressure and a gradual wind shift from northwest today to more northeasterly on Sunday, so a cooling trend will result, but still quite nice. Out of the 3 days, today’s your best beach day. Once we get beyond the weekend, the feel of summer returns as a southwesterly air flow takes over. By later Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching, but may be doing so slowly enough so that some areas may make a late season run at 90. All the while, we’ll be watching Dorian to the south. For the last couple days, I have been leaning toward a scenario that keeps the center of the hurricane from reaching Florida. I am nearly certain of this now. The northern Bahamas will not be spared. And as the hurricane starts a northward movement, the Carolina coast will be vulnerable for at least a very close pass and possibly a landfall. A quicker acceleration of this hurricane would result in the possibility of a PRE event up here as early as Wednesday night, but for the moment any impact directly or indirectly related to Dorian is likely to be after this 5-day period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NW 5-10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, coolest inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
The September 5-6 period is vulnerable for any impact from the passage of Dorian offshore, pending the exact track and speed of the storm. Certainly rough surf along the coast. There is the possibility of showers or a period of rain somewhere during this time frame as well. Drier weather is expected for the September 7-9 period as high pressure builds in. This outlook is different, timing-wise, than previously. This is why I had been mentioning previously that the outlooks were low confidence. Have tropical systems in the area, even without direct impact, can play havoc with prediction.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Still looking for a northward-displaced jet stream over a flat high pressure ridge and domination by surface high pressure much of the period as well, leading to a drier and warmer than average stretch of weather. There will probably be a couple temperature swings within this, however.

47 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK.

    TK, I think you’re spot on as usual with your comments on the last blog. I rarely complain about this, not because I don’t care but because I’m fully resigned to our fate, but I’ll make it known here: The proliferation of (especially long range) model data by irresponsible weather “enthusiasts” and even some actual mets is by far the greatest challenge that meteorology faces today. It borders on being an existential threat to the profession.

    You’ll never reverse this problem, as it’s a total Pandora’s Box. But it’s extremely frustrating to watch the spread of confusion that would be easily prevented if people just listened to authoritative voices on the matter. There’s also a part of me that wonders if we theoretically could cut off the dissemination of weather models to the public, whether I’d actually want to do that. I personally learned a ton growing up from having model data available to me, and I know there others similar including here on the blog. It would seem unfair to punish everyone for the stupidity of some. But of course, it’s a moot argument. That’s not where we’re going.

    1. Yes and yes and yes and I agree with all of this. Especially the part about punishing everyone for the stupidity of a handful. JP Dave (and I use him as an example for obvious reasons relating to this blog) should not be cut off from seeing these models because somebody with no internet filter plastered model runs of South Florida getting killed by “the worst hurricane since Andrew” from a run a full week before the hurricane would be making its closes pass.

      I love your Pandora’s Box reference. But you’re right. It’s a legit threat to the profession yet there is nothing much that can be done about it except to fight the good fight the way we do.

  5. Regarding Dorian and it’s potential impacts to the Northeast: I think it’s reasonable to say that we should be watching the progress of the storm. It’s a time honored rule of thumb that a hurricane in the Bahamas is an automatic “watcher” for the Northeast. In this case it appears most likely that an incoming cold front and trough should lead to a fairly sharp right hook and carry Dorian out to sea with little or no direct impacts. But as we’ve seen, long range forecasts are subject to change.

    Recon data indicates the storm is currently near or slightly below Category 5 intensity. Should see 150-155mph at the 11AM advisory.

    1. Again I agree. I was talking about that with someone on a FB weather page that I admin on just a short while ago.

  6. I am selfishly happy it was just a cat 1 hurricane when it hit St. Thomas. It seemed to be just a nor- easter. Tropics have in general become more favorable. There are a few waves coming off of Africa that needs to be watched, I’m hoping they stay well north of us

    1. We have seen the mitigating factors subside and this is definitely, as we see, allowing more activity as we enter the peak of the hurricane season. I expect more activity, but falling shy of NHC’s predicted #’s.

  7. With the obvious uncertainty still in place, I think NHC’s 11AM advisory on Dorian (which nudges a bit more east than the last track) is very close to what will actually take place.

    1. Thanks TK !

      And hopefully, in time, a further right hand hook prior to Wilmington NC and the Outer Banks of NC

        1. Time to worry about my coastal NC/VA relatives once again.

          Ironic that Florida is already almost 100% safer now than Nantucket “could” be one week from today. What a turn of events.

          2. And definitely not the first time we’ve seen a similar turn of events. I’m reasonably encouraged by what I see regarding the Carolinas, but I am not even close to ready to saying the threat there is dropping. It’s too soon.

  8. WxW to speak to your point made earlier…

    I won’t mention any names and they are not on this blog anyway, but I have had people I know basically tell me there is no way that my forecast for Dorian is going to be right because of reasons that include (paraphrased quotes)…

    “Storm X did this after they said it wouldn’t hit us.”
    “Storm Y did this after they said it wouldn’t be that bad.”
    “Storm Z did a u-turn and came back and hit us twice.”
    “The weather people are NEVER right.”
    Etc.

    I know people near the keys that are currently boarding up their windows in preparation for category 4 hurricane winds. Top winds there at closest pass: Probably 15-20 MPH. Why is it that the model forecast from 5 days ago still holds more weight than an update from a set of professionals just issued in the last 90 minutes? The ignorance is getting out of control.

    1. This is certainly an interesting study in human behavior. What do you think the window-boarders would be doing now if this had gone the other way with a miss predicted five days out and then an update to a direct hit in the final days?

      1. If I understand your point, it is the same thought I had.

        As an aside…Charleston began their emergency procedure prep for Hugo when it had only a 12% chance of landfall there.

  9. A lot of good input from you both (WxW and TK) as always. I honestly cannot recall a time when Mets were not blamed for weather. It is indeed sad, and it won’t stop. A good deal of fault lies exactly where you have mentioned. But not all. We have become such a negative society that it really doesn’t matter how well you do your job, someone always thinks he or she can do better. Mets should know this as well or better than most.

    Doing a job to the best of your ability is all that can be expected and something everyone should be proud of no matter who tries to convince you differently. Not one of us is perfect. I am guilty of taking criticism of Mets to heart. But as you well know, that doesn’t just stop at that profession. Folks should be allowed to do their jobs to the best of their ability in every walk of life. And to make their own choices. And sure there are screw ups, but they do not define the group or profession….far from it.

    I just wish we could somehow start to move from the negative.

    1. Awesome article. Some may agree with all, some may agree with some, some may not agree at all

      The overriding message was to address what seems to be a problem in a positive way. I love, love the approach by Mr Morales.

      “Mr. Morales has become something of a local celebrity meteorologist, a calming, reliable voice willing to field followers’ questions and offer lengthy explanations for the dreaded weather to come.”

    2. I very much like the Morales approach, as you probably could have guessed.

      The only thing I take issue with in that story is the statement that the storm behaved in an unusual way. That statement is not correct. If you follow the track of this storm, it’s quite typical for a tropical storm / hurricane in that part of the world, to be perfectly honest.

      The only thing that threw anybody for a loop was the fact forecast model information was being distributed on the net and other media like copies of a prayer and song book at church on a Sunday.

      1. I like this comment….

        “Mr. Smith, the meteorologist in Panama City Beach, said that while the amateurs can be frustrating, their vigilance is a reminder that forecasters need to meet their viewers’ needs.”

        Maybe time to not worry about who uses apps, what met said what, who is doing what, etc., and focus on the positive. Irene Sans may be my hero #2 in this article. She has figured out that she can’t do her job well if she is trying to be all things to all people. I’d be willing to bet that gets Mets in as much or perhaps more trouble than a blown forecast.

        TK, I chuckled. I knew you’d have trouble with that comment. Remember, it’s a news piece. Down to the nitty gritty may be off a bit, but the overall picture is something we need far more of. I love it.

  12. Yesterday one of the tv mets showed a model tracking Dorian up here passing just east of Nantucket much like a winter nor’easter, then changing to a wintry mix on the backside as it reaches Nova Scotia. I thought that the late changeover was fascinating given current climotology.

    1. That was a model forecast and the mix was based on a bad upper air temperature forecast. That simple. As a meteorologist, something like that stands out like a sore thumb and we know to disregard it.

      1. I “think” it was Mike Waunkum that showed that model. I knew that it was no way an official forecast on his part and that it was “just” a model.

        Too bad though that that wintry mix could never happen, even if it is still summer. 😉

    1. That’s great !!

      As an aside, what a great weather weekend so far (since Thursday morning).

      Great camping weather.

      1. And it started early. Last night was an absolutely fabulous night at Hampton Beach. I was surprised the crowd was not a little heavier there. But I think that’s partly because so many people have already returned to schools and finished their week or two week vacations earlier. For them, summer has been over for 2 or 3 weeks. I think that’s more the case now than in the past. But nevertheless, the crowd was “decent” up there, and the parking was plentiful and inexpensive. I paid $5 for one of the main lots.

  15. Sorry I’ve not commented in a bit. Life has me busy. Thanks for the update TK.

    Question for all: when do you tend to take out your AC? I usually do it the first of september as long as I don’t forsee any heatwaves in the near future.

    1. I don’t have AC but I usually put my fan away sometime after Columbus Day. Heat lasts into October now that we are under climate change.

  16. I would wait until the last few days of September. You could still get some pretty warm days in September. The good thing about September is the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power.

  17. Thanks for the good discussion. It’s like all information on the Internet, e.g., medical without proper context, it’s easy to misinterpret what the info means and the validity of the information. There’s so many different variables that can affect the weather in general. As the experts learn more about what factors matter and the assumptions they can make and when they apply, the current models will be improved or replaced and new models will be made.

  18. Extrapolation of the 5PM NHC track is no US Mainland landfall and weakening slightly earlier than previously forecast.

    I’m on my way to Gloucester. I’ll check in now & again, but the signal usually sucks there so I may drop into an internet black hole for a couple hours. 😉

    1. Just saw that. And God Bless the folks on those islands. A bit More of FL has been added back into the cone. GA, SC, NC too.

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