Tuesday Forecast

84 Comments

7:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
High pressure builds in today with very nice weather. As the high sinks to the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest, we get a quick shot of early September heat and humidity Wednesday, but the day will end with a few showers and possible thunderstorms from that front, which will move through overnight, introducing much cooler air for Thursday and Friday. However during this time, Hurricane Dorian will be in the process of its re-curve and acceleration to the north then northeast, a process that will bring its center about 200 miles southeast of New England Friday night and early Saturday before it accelerates away. The impacts from this storm will be a cloud shield that spreads across the region Thursday, thickens into Friday when some rainfall may get into parts of southeastern New England. While it’s still a few days away it does look like the bulk of the rainfall will miss the region. The other main impact will be large ocean swells for several days, and rough surf mainly during the shortly after the closest pass of the system. Late summer beach visitor should exercise caution late this week as some waves can be very large and the rip current risk will be very high. As far as the weather, any rain that does glance the region Friday will be gone by first thing Saturday, which turns out to be a nice but breezy day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure will dominate this period but the weather will change as the center of the high shifts, starting out north of the region with pleasant and dry air, then drifting more to the east before sinking to the south, turning the air flow onshore by mid period then eventually more southerly to westerly later in the period, with increasing warmth and a little humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
A few showers and brief cooling possible early in the period, a quick warm up, a few more showers, then a cool down later in the period as disturbances come along in a jet stream near the region.

84 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    The NHC now has the cone of uncertainty just barely up to the Canal. Hope the trend is even further east.

      1. I was driving down the VFW Parkway last night at 6:30 and it was a complete wall of water. Never seen it rain so hard. I know you live around there so it must have been very local. There was well over 0.43″ of rain

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Dorian now down to 120 mph, a mere shadow of its former self.
    Looks destined to end in the great hurricane grave yard of the North Atlantic.

    The Euro was the 1st model to sniff out the OFF shore track along with TK and a few of his colleagues. Forecasting tropical systems is a tricky business for sure. Kudos to TK.

    The Euro may have its faults, but it is still KING of the models.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    I was saddened to see that Dorian is still creeping. It’s beyond comprehension to me. I am glad to see that the U.S. is going to help.

    1. That was 408 km/h or 253 mph. News to me as I always thought that
      what you posted was true. Perhaps up until this one?

      I dunno.

      TK???

    2. Thank you, Joshua. Awesome link.

      Based on Vicki knowledge, you are correct about Mt Washington. Based on truth, however, it is Australia.

      The 231 wind speed on Mt Washington was 231 on April 112, 1934. Australia became the highest on April 10, 1996 with a 253 gust recorded.

      I seem to recall there is some dispute about this, although that could have been in my head since I seem to want to refuse to give credit to anywhere other than Washington 😉

  10. Link below is of an article previewing fall foliage in New England. The article emphasizes the dates of “peak foliage.” This is a little misleading. For example, the article fails to mention that colors in the higher elevations are already appearing in Northern New England. And, while the Boston area won’t be at peak until some time in October there will be plenty of foliage by late September. Personally, I prefer the pre-peak foliage period – when dark green leaves mix with purples, oranges, yellows, and reds.

    https://www.boston.com/travel/travel/2019/09/03/2019-fall-foliage-forecast-maine-new-hampshire-vermont-massachusetts-connecticut

  12. Thanks TK
    Latest SREF bullish with that tornado potential tomorrow for the interior. Marginal instability values are not high though according to NWS Boston discussion but does mention if the instability is higher there would be an increased risk of a more widespread severe weather event.
    SPC Outlook tomorrow. This will be updated around 1:30pm today
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  13. The CAPE not all impressive on the 12z NAM run. Couple pockets over 1,000 across interior MA but a lot below 1,000. If the CAPE was higher with some of the other ingredients in place we may have something tomorrow.

    1. Helicity is plenty high enough, however.
      All we need is a decent cell to develop and rotation is very possible.

    1. We still have plenty of time for heat and storms the rest of this month into the first week or so in October. I would be pleasantly shocked if we were done Jimmy.

        1. Yes, especially now with climate change. Of course back in the day it would never occur as late as December.

          1. The instances of severe weather, statistically, have not really changed at all, beyond having many times more weather spotters and far easier communication than we had previously.

            December severe thunderstorms are exceedingly rare and always have been.

  15. I agree. When I think of our best opportunities for severe weather here its from early June through early September. I know we can have severe weather past those time periods the October 3, 1979 F4 Windsor Locks tornado comes to mind but most of the severe weather happens in the time period I mentioned.

  17. what is limiting instability tommorow? is it cloud cover as spc mentions? Or other things too perhaps. if we can get a lot of sun, maybe instability will be hugher

  18. Some of the 12z ensembles look closer to the Carolina coastline and at 48 hrs, the 12z EURO op run looks really tucked in to the coastline …….

    1. appears small atlantic ridge on this run projected to be slightly stronger and ever so slightly further west.

      But, with a track so close to the coast, it wouldnt take much strengthening of the atlantic ridge to have this interact with the Carolinas.

  19. I really feel for the people who live on Grand Bahama.

    The hurricane’s sinking air on its periphery and its circulation, drawing in 20C 850 mb temps overhead the next 72 hrs are really going to make for some very hot temperatures in the Bahamas, even by their standards.

    1. Yikes, that run is close. Just looked at it. Brings about 1 inch rain all the
      way to Boston. UKMET very similar. We shall see.

  20. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan’s thoughts for tomorrow
    Nice signal on the SREF for tomorrow with the potential for supercell storms. Some question as to how unstable we get and how widespread the storm coverage will be… but plenty of wind shear for the storms to organize if they do get going.

    Strong low level wind shear will need to be watched tomorrow. Any storms that develop have the potential to rotate – we’ll be watching closely.

  21. Latest run of the SREF rolling out now and will see what it shows as it has been consistent in showing that potential for supercell storms as Ryan mentioned.

  22. Everything going as expected…
    Track: beginning movement NW to NNW.
    Intensity: Weakening.

    It’s not often I get to make a track forecast and leave it unchanged for nearly 6 days.
    And once the ECMWF model figured out that the hurricane was not going to make a FL landfall it also nailed the stationary period almost to the hour.

    SAK wrote a special blog for Dorian. Here it is…

    https://stormhq.blog/2019/09/03/tropical-update-that-escalated-quickly/?fbclid=IwAR27s_6Fs9nrFrHJpjtOq2BEW2nJJ9FDPTIKi_dYDlq3AVMqdYHlesp0QiE

    1. Thank God it has progressed slightly from its Stall.

      Thanks for posting SAKS blog. Absolutely clear cut explanations. No getting into the weeds. Thank you SAK

  23. Really awful destruction in the Bahamas. A truly catastrophic event. I feel terribly for people who have lost everything they own. Very sad situation.

    Does anyone know if reputable donation sites (eg, Red Cross) have been set up?

    1. nothing has been set up yet, there have been a series of bad things posted. There is a fleet of ships in Florida thats going to go over and give aid.

    2. Highest point on GBH is 41 feet above sea level. Much of the island is 20 feet above or lower. Can you say it was only a question of when and not if something like this would happen. I know. I’m not trying to be uncaring. Believe me. I feel for the people that live there. But I am talking about stats. There are many places that live dangerously and are basically on borrowed time. Nature doesn’t care what’s in the way. She’ll move it. We could have easily seen that storm stall over open water. Most times storms do that, they are over open water. This time, it was not the case.

      1. Charleston is basically at sea level. Boston is built on swamp. Tornado alley is….well, you know. The entire east coast is subject to disaster. California and Texas could be removed from the map. Heck, Humarock is living on borrowed time with sea rise due to changing climate.

        A good portion of this country is in precarious locations. Storms are creating more damage for multiple reasons….one of which is undeniably the changing climate. And we sit and do nothing.

        And I haven’t even touched on other countries.

        1. Agree. You see a relatively small place like this get wiped out and then you think of how many millions are just as vulnerable. We should be taking steps all the time to evaluate, protect, re-evaluate. A lot of things are taken for granted and that makes us far more in danger than we need to be.

          1. That is why we need to address climate change. We create our own danger more than we know. Florence….Harvey…..Dorian. But we can never fault people for building where they do. It is a very slippery slope

    1. It’s peak time! And the conditions are far better than they were. I think for about 3 weeks the pattern will be favorable for activity, then we may shift it a bit.

  30. I’m a little skeptical of much severe weather in SNE tomorrow. It’s not a zero risk, but looks like a typical marginal event. Wind profiles are pretty good, but everything else is rather unimpressive. I’d expect a broken line of showers and storms with probably a couple of embedded stronger cores with a gusty wind/small hail threat.

    1. I agree completely. Never overly impressed with this set-up, but if things come together just right, you can get 1 or 2 decent storms.

      1. Not now. I rescheduled an appointment for tomorrow till Friday so I could enjoy the storms. My best advice is plan on storms Friday.

  31. Joshua. My youngest has been following Frankel (sp) for a while. She has been doing some tremendous humanitarian work. She is sending a water plane (wrong name but you get it) to the Amazon because she is frustrated we are doing so little. I’m not advising donating before doing your due diligence. But I am betting this is where my money goes. It seems 100% goes to the intended recipient. Once I verify, I’ll donate

    http://www.bethenny.com/bstrong/

  32. On a very non weather topic. OS. I’m on vacation for a couple of weeks while my business associate is away. I started watching heartland. Thank you for the recommendation

    1. I didn’t want to bug you. I watched all 11 seasons and a 12th is being filmed.
      It can get a tad sappy at times, but overall, I think it was wonderful.
      Happy you are enjoying.

      1. Yikes 11 seasons. I’m on episode 2 of season 1. It is nice to have something to look forward to. Thank you

        And you could never bug me 🙂

  33. OS….my oldest is riding again and working with a trainer who has the same gentle approach my daughter does. This is a video of my daughter working with a horse that needed to be brought back because of a hard approach by the previous owner.

    https://i.imgur.com/qCox6FZ.mp4

  34. So I just looked at some of the video and images from the storm for the first time…. The problem is that even marginally and limited destructive weather has consistently been described so hyperbolically for the past 20 years or so that anything I say is just going to sound cliché and that’s too bad because all of the words that should be reserved for this type of event have been stolen from us. I’ll do my best however and just say plainly that the images are awesome. And I don’t mean the diluted and commercially overused definition of awesome. I mean the version that would bring you to your knees if God showed up on the horizon tonight and cleared up a lot of mystery.

    In the meantime, get all of those poor people off that island before they succumb to the elements and disease. Give the island back to nature for a while.

  35. Thank you for your note, Vicki.

    Also, you must be proud of your youngest. Humanitarian work is so important.

  36. Humanity leaves a giant footprint on this earth, sometimes the earth takes that footprint and boots us in the ass with it.

    1. Had we only listened ….this and so many more.

      Will you teach your children what we have taught our children? That the earth is our mother? What befalls the earth befalls all the sons of the earth. This we know: the earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth. All things are connected like the blood that unites us all. Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself. One thing we know: our god is also your god. The earth is precious to him and to harm the earth is to heap contempt on its creator.

      Chief Seattle

  38. So true Vicki. Thanks!!
    Looks like those feeder bands are pretty strong just north of Daytona beach. The eye doesn’t have to make landfall to cause damage. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a tornado or two with those bands coming ashore.

  39. The 00z NAM ……

    Hint of northern stream energy trying to sharpen/cut off around hrs 75 to 84.

    Tugging a bit at Dorian ? Certainly infusing it with new energy …..

    Stay tuned ?????

      1. Thanks Mark !

        Comparing to its previous 12z run, a decent NW adjustment. Easy to understand when looking at the projected 500 mb hrs 75-84.

      2. You know ….. the weak steering flow certainly has been a savior to Florida, but the negative is allowing this thing to move so slowly that it doesn’t gain much latitude for days and then something out in the pacific or arctic can alter the northern stream projection in the days to come.

  40. Charleston harbor may be looking at significant surge….possible 10 feet but of course remains to be seen. Hugo was ….from what I recall …13 feet.

    1. The difference between the 2 is that Dorian will be about half the strength Hugo was, and moving more slowly, and in a direction about 90 degrees different, parallel to the coast versus a straight on hit that Hugo was. So the impact should be significantly less this time.

    1. Ha! When Dave posted the NAM last week showing Dorian making a turn south at hour 84, I was trying to find that cartoon of the kid writing on the chalkboard over and over: “Thou shall not use the NAM to forecast tropical cyclones.” That was a good one…. 🙂

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