Thursday Forecast

101 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Minor adjustment in this blog update, slowing the arrival of the cloud shield of Hurricane Dorian, which will continue its track just off the Carolinas (bringing the eastern portions of those states significant impact from wind, coastal flooding, and heavy rain) during today, then accelerating northeastward while losing tropical characteristics Friday-Saturday. The center’s closest pass to New England will be about 200-250 miles southeast of Cape Cod about dawn Saturday. Large ocean swells and rough surf are the certainties. It is likely that rain will get into southeastern areas, with a period of moderate to heavy rain possible Cape Cod & Islands while lighter rain can get back up into the I-95 corridor. This will arrive Friday evening, peak Friday night / early hours of Saturday, then clear out quickly around or just after dawn Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will see a gusty north to northwest wind behind the departing storm as high pressure starts to build in. A cold front will pass through the region north to south Saturday night, pretty much without any notice, and high pressure will continue to build in during Sunday and then overhead Monday with some great late summer weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Highs 70-77. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 56-63. Wind light variable
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Cloudy early morning with any rain ending, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
West to east flow dominates. High pressure sinks south with fair weather and a quick warm-up September 10. Cold front slides through September 11 with a shower risk. High pressure builds in with fair weather September 12-13. Weak front approaches with slight shower risk September 14.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
West to east flow continues. One or two minor systems may bring shower threats, but the overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures not too far from normal overall.

101 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Dorian’s temporary re-intensification was because it entered a better environment briefly while over warm enough water. The weakening process will be reestablished and the transition from tropical to non-tropical, while taking time, will occur as the storm continues to re-curve and accelerate. It’s a very slow process at first. It’s still pretty far south.

    Significant impact for sure, which has been a concern for several days now, for the eastern Carolinas. Moderate impact at most for southeastern New England, in terms of swells/surf, and maybe a period of heavier rain confined to the far southeastern areas, later this week.

  4. Thanks TK.

    We’re watching Dorian to gauge impact to our sailboat, currently moored in Onset Bay in Wareham. That location has good cover from the north and northeast. What would you anticipate for peak winds in that area and what would be the timing?

    We were planning to sail the boat north to the home mooring in Winthrop this weekend, but conditions will prevent that. R rr r

    1. It’s hard to say when the ocean swell will peak but the rough surf will definitely take place from Friday to very early Saturday. It will still stay somewhat rough over the exposed Waters and coastal areas through Saturday.

      1. What about wind? What are the current top wind speed estimates for the Cape Cod bridges, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket?

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Today is an absolutely Stellar day and I would rank it 11 on a scale of 1-10. 🙂

    re: Storms yesterday
    0.00 inch in the rain gauge as we received a few drops with the storm passing
    “just” to our North. Oh well, the way it goes.

    Here is a photo of the tree down around the corner from me in JP.
    NOT from any storm. Trunk was clearly rotted and the wind prior to any storms
    was enough to do this.

    https://imgur.com/a/D9IHJSR

  11. Thanks TK.

    Dorian has pulled a bit of a nasty surprise this morning: it has turned out to be an unusually prolific tornado producer. It’s common for tropical cyclones to produce a few tornadoes in their outer bands, but Dorian has unleashed a parade of mini-supercells with several tornadoes and waterspouts on the coastal Carolinas this morning. The 13z SPC outlook is a good read. Not often you see them making “major changes” to their day 1 outlooks, especially on a morning update.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    2. There’s one ongoing right now where I can confidently identify a tornado debris signature to at least 10,000 feet. With less confidence, potentially as high as 15,000-18,000 feet. A 10,000 foot deep TDS is quite rare and typically associated with strong (~EF2/EF3) tornadoes. But for a tropical cyclone, where tornadoes tend to be fairly weak and short lived, I would guess such a signature borders on unprecedented at least in the dual pol era.

    1. Last frames show a distinct turn towards the West. Could just be a temporary
      wobble, but it doesn’t look good.

  14. From the Nat’l Hurricane Center

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
    * North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
    * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
    * Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
    * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
    * Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard MA

  18. Thank you TK!

    And thank you all for your kind birthday wishes! What a great feeling to come on here this morning and see all the messages. Much appreciated!

  19. As I posted above, there is a Tropical Storm Watch for:
    * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
    * Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard MA

    When I look at it, I am not sure why that was issued. The only thing I can think of is that Dorian remnants will obviously be in the area, and maybe because winds from that will exceed 39 MPH which is usually some sort of cutoff point.

    Can someone enlighten me further?

      1. also to add, because it can always shift west or east like any system. If it comes closer more wind. St. Thomas was not suppose to be hit with a land falling Hurricane but we did.

  20. I hope that any Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings don’t spread any further north into Boston.

    I have relatives in Elizabeth City NC and Portsmouth VA.

  21. FROM our local NWS office re: Dorian

    The main concern will be the track and impacts from Hurricane
    Dorian. Given we are 48+ hours out in the model guidance, the exact
    track remains uncertain but appears Dorian will pass near or just
    east of the Benchmark Fri night into Sat am. Just a 50 mile shift
    in either direction will make a significant difference on how much
    wind and heavy rainfall reaches northwestward into southeast New
    England.

    1. Hey Tom it’s to bad they moved the lobster event from Saturday to Sunday as TK has that as a decent day rain moving out around dawn

    2. Oops, Eric made a statement that was quickly countered with hard information to show it was an incorrect statement. 😉 Twitter can be dangerous that way.

      BTW SAK informs me that Lowell has had it’s 4th coolest summer of the decade (June-August). Most of the information (except Boston) points to this summer being middle of the pack when it comes to heat. I agree with that.

  28. A couple awesome shots of the storms last night as they approached the CT shoreline….

    @Eweather13

    Whoa!! Absolutely epic capture of the storm moving in over the East Haddam Swing Bridge, taken from Goodspeed Airport.

    :Kim Edwards #StormHour

    https://twitter.com/Eweather13/status/1169407322445234177?s=20

    Neal Perron Photography
    @nealperronpics

    Panoramic of the shelf cloud that passed over CT River in Haddam Neck, CT.

    https://twitter.com/nealperronpics/status/1169387458007588870?s=20

  30. Just completed binge watching six (6) seasons of the 100. (It is a CW production, but
    available on Netflix).

    Really exhibits the very worst and the very best of humanity, not for the faint of heart.
    It is full of violence, but still well worth the look. One must overlook some holes
    in the plot and the science at times, but that aside it was wonderfully entertaining and kept me locked in the whole time. I couldn’t stay away from it. Season 7 is filming now and “should” be available sometime in the Spring.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_100_(TV_series)

  31. Thank you TK

    Rough day in the Carolinas. A friend who lives in Charleston harbor said the eye went by about 40 miles east but that it was low tide so surge wasn’t bad. His sister lives on one of the barrier islands and they have had tornadic activity. Philip and SClarke ….I hope your families are all right

    1. Thanks Vicki. I’m most concerned about my aunt in Elizabeth City. I’ll try to contact my relatives over the weekend. Coastal VA is a concern as well.

    2. Thanks Vicki. Early on, I was more concerned about relatives in Satellite Beach, FL. They evacuated, but had no real damage and no loss of power. Now it looks like those in NC could be hit harder than that.

  32. From Ryan Hanrahan in CT:

    EF-1 tornado confirmed in Coventry and Mansfield Depot. The tornado was on the ground for 3.2 miles and had winds of 85-90 mph. #nbcct

    1. It was magnificent. I’d have taken pictures but after 6:00 we can go outside ….brought to you by the letters E ~ E ~ E

  35. Tropical Storm Warnings on Cape Cod and the Islands
    Frost Warnings in Northern Maine (Allagash)
    This why New England Weather is so cool!

        1. Ohhhh. Not here. I was so excited I couldn’t read.

          I recall below 32 and fishing in the rangeley area this time of year

          1. I have been to just about every area of New England except the following Rangeley, Mt Khatahdin and the Litchfield Hills of CT.

            1. Keith Litchfield Hills in CT is beautiful especially during peak foliage time. I love driving around there and seeing the fall colors. There are number of wineries in the Litchfield Hills to if your into wine tastings.

              2. And the same ex I mentioned to Keith lived in suffield CT off season and we spent a lot of time in the Litchfield and other areas fishing. CT is such a beautiful state.

            2. My ex fiancé but dear friend and family had a summer home on an island in Moselookmeguntic lake (sp) in Oquossoc
              ME which is part of the rangeley area. I spent a ton of time there. It is spectacular

  36. Good job by the SREF yesterday sniffing out areas where tornadic activity was possible and there was an EF 1 Tornado in CT yesterday with winds of 85-90mph and on the ground for 3.2 miles. This is the first tornado that CT has had this year. Last year there were nine.

  37. JJ, the tornado missed my house by about a half mile. I can walk to the skunkamaug golf course from here.

    I just did some drive bys on my way back from picking up my daughter from softball practice. It was starting to get dark but worst damage I saw was on Plains Rd and Depot road on the Mansfield/Coventry line….several large trees down and a portion of the adjacent corn field flattened in one direction.

    2. I saw a few trees changing color at Baxter State Park last weekend but likely will be a few more weeks before they peak.

  39. Wow Mark a half mile from your home where this tornado happened. Were coming from work when this tornado was happening or were you home? Great Drone video of that golf course giving us a view of the damage. Thankfully no injuries or fatalities. Two of the last three Wednesdays your part of CT has gotten hit by severe weather.

    1. I was driving home and was almost back as the storm was coming through. My son said it got wild at the house for a minute or two right before I got home but nothing more than a few sticks down in my yard. I was watching it on the radar and could tell it was sliding just barely to my north and east.

      I nearly kept going to try and catch it and I would have. Probably best I didn’t as the last thing I need is a tree coming down on my car.

  40. As South Central said, an absolutely stunning sunset tonight thanks to Dorian (and as Dave Epstein amusingly tweeted, maybe the most viewed/talked about sunset of all time, lol). I got these pictures, the first from just outside my office and the second two during a subsequent chow run to a sandwich shop up the street. It was magnificent!

    https://imgur.com/a/PZD4z62

  41. WxW, the NWS employee who surveyed the storm damage here in the NBC video I posted above was Alan Dunham – did you work with him when you were there?

    1. I did! Alan’s a great guy and he’s been at BOX for a long time, probably heading towards a well earned retirement soon. Also a long time volunteer fireman. He leads the observations program at the office.

  42. Great sunset pics WXWatcher, and mark.
    Mark it’s amazing to have a tornado come so close to you and have barely any wind damage, but yet yards away it’s a different story. I have mentioned this before but the 6/1/11 EF 3 tornado missed my house by about 800 – 900 feet, leveling the forest behind my house yet in my yard there were only a few small twigs down. My anemometer registered a peak gust of 27 mph. The smell of newly cut pine and wood was strong. My next door neighbor was home and he said he could hear it through the woods. Unfortunately I was at work and missed out on what I’ve always had the curiosity to experience, and wouldn’t have had to leave my own home. I’m glad it missed your property.

      1. Its tough in the Outer Banks for flooding, because on the north side of the hurricane, the wind piles the water into Pamlico Sound. The east side of the Banks is flooding from the ocean.

        Then, when the center passes, Pamlico Sound floods the west side of that Outer Banks. Its a 2 storm surge scenario they go through.

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