Saturday Forecast

54 Comments

10:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Dorian is not done yet, giving Nova Scotia a decent hit today. Nova Scotia averages 1 hurricane landfall every 3 years (of course that can be very uneven, as that is a long-term average). Clusters of landfalls there have been observed at various times in weather observation history, seemingly related to large scale patterns, such as the AMO. And yes, Nova Scotia gets more landfalls than New England. It actually makes perfect sense if you look at the average hurricane path through the Atlantic Basin. Simple statistics. For New England, we’re not completely done with the impacts from the passing of the hurricane, with rough surf continuing through today into tonight before subsiding Sunday. Cloudiness has been dominant through the morning so far (10AM writing this) with the rain shield sitting over part of Cape Cod earlier in the morning, since having moved out. The drier air is in the process of eroding the lingering lower clouds as the higher deck of clouds from the storm’s circulation moves away. So the theme will be increasing sun as we get to and into afternoon, but still some cloudiness as well, but later in the day or definitely by tonight more clouds will show up from the northwest in advance of a cold front that will drop through the region tonight, producing nothing more than a brief passing shower in a few locations. This will be followed by the arrival of high pressure, bringing great weather to the region Sunday through Tuesday, with local variations based on wind direction and speed relative to the high’s position. By Wednesday, a trough arrives from the west with a warm front / cold front combo, lots of clouds, and a risk of showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clearing late morning-midday. Cloud/sun mix this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty early, shifting to NW and gradually diminishing later.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
High pressure to the north with fair weather expected September 12-13 but may have to watch a boundary not too far south that could mess up this forecast. Front pushes through September 14 but shower risk looks minimal as high pressure ridging builds aloft and results in dry/warmer weather for the balance of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
Overall pattern will be dominated by west to east flow with a mean ridge in the eastern US, but a disturbance may cause a few showers and possible thunderstorms around mid period. Predominant weather will be fair with above normal temperatures.

54 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Coffee…

    It was Green Mountain Breakfast Blend. I like light roast, sometimes medium. The powerful coffee will kill my heart.

    Green Mountain is my favorite to make at home.
    Peet’s, tried it, hated it. It’s about as bad as it gets for my taste.
    But I am open to trying various ones and I get a variety pack once in a while. Some of them I make hot, others iced. I can brew single cup iced coffee because I have a hyper chiller that will make the fresh made coffee cold in a few seconds by putting it between 2 surfaces that have ice on the other side. So you can chill it without watering it down. When you pour it over ice, the ice stays as ice. 😉

    1. My youngest likes green mountain. It would be my second to Peet’s . Peet’s has been my go to for years. No oil. No indigestion. Youngest likes Starbucks too. I do not. Too oily. Founder of Peet’s taught Starbucks founders how to make coffee. Then Starbucks was derailed.

      1. I’m not sure what it is about Peets I don’t like. I can’t really drink Starbucks either. My son works there. Sometimes he makes me one of their teas though. Love those!

        1. I also like Starbucks tea. Their citrus defender is amazing if you don’t feel well.

          People have different coffee tastes. I never cared for DD. McDonald’s isn’t bad. Neumann always did things right imo

    2. Ironically, the lighter the roast the higher the caffeine content. Dark roast coffees, while strong taste have less caffeine

      1. Correct, so I usually make smaller cups of light roast. The darker roast coffees don’t sit well with me. I don’t enjoy the flavor and they tend to make me queasy.

  3. Thanks TK !

    JpDave, my wife and I were just talking about the cold wind coming through the window.

    10am : Bacarro Point, NS : NE wind at 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph.

    2. This is fun. Thanks. Brier is on west side and lunenberg about 1/4 of way up east side have wind in 50s with gusts to low 70s

    1. With this pressure, the massive wind field and the fetch of ocean, as well as the momentum of the surge towards Nova Scotia, I am very very concerned about the storm surge just to the right of landfall. I’d think it’s going to be massive.

      1. The good news is landfall will be when the tide is just beyond half way between high and low, trending toward low, and tides are down at this time of month anyway. That should minimize the impact.

  8. Just a quick meteorological autumn overview based on pattern review I’ve done in between tracking the hurricane this week…

    September (not including the first week which already happened):
    Above average temps, below average precip through mid month.
    Near to below average temps, below average precip second half of month.

    October:
    Below average temps, above average precip (but not excessive). First snowflakes for many.
    Warm spikes with tropical intrusion and one tropical cyclone threat.

    November:
    Below average temps, coldest relative to normal first half of month, more seasonable thereafter.
    Near to below average precip. Near normal snowfall (yes I realize not much snow occurs in November, but it occurs, and I think it will be close to average).

  11. Seemingly interesting wind field in Nova Scotia.

    Center just east of the western coast of the southern part of Nova Scotia.

    Winds turning north and there seems to be another wind max area to the west of the center, probably with the rush of colder air into the storm’s western flank.

    Digby, Brier Point and Yarmouth now all with a N wind around 50 mph, gusting to 65 mph.

  12. The NHC has done an excellent job with Dorian !!!

    I wish, this morning, they had stuck to last night’s forecast of 100 mph, because now based on satellite data, they’ve had to go back to 100 mph sustained.

    I hope the 85 mph this morning and forecasted landfall intensity didn’t cause anyone up there to become complacent.

    1. The Lunnenberg cam and the Peggy’s Cove) cam are showing some heavy rain and some nice waves (on the Peggy’s Cove cam) to bad it seems to be just a capture cam every 5 seconds or so.

  15. The “October” snowflakes pretty much kills the snowfall season around here. At least we know in advance what “not” to expect.

    Winter 2011-2012 repeat? 🙁

    2. It’s just a tad early to say that. For one thing, it’s just a rough outlook. And the correlation, which equates measurable October snow to a below normal snow winter, only works approximately 60% of the time.

      You can’t draw an analog of 2011-2012 based on what I said above. That’s just a rough outline on where I think the pattern is going the next 3 months and has nothing to do with the winter at this point.

    3. At this point, as much as I love snow, if it kills snow for a winter, it’s a fair tradeoff for killing the mosquitoes and EEE.

  17. Average November snowfall at Logan = 1.3”

    Not totally certain but I think we may have actually had more notable snowfalls in April than in November.

  19. JPD. I always preferred fresh water fishing. My son enjoys fresh and surf casting. He said he caught a good number of striped bass today. They apparently love rough water and it’s one of a few times they’ll be out during the day. Like you, he catches and releases

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