Tuesday Forecast

40 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Onshore flow ahead of a warm front has delivered ocean moisture in the form of low cloudiness which may be tough for the sun to burn though, as there will be high & middle clouds above this as a warm front approaches today, so don’t look for as much sun as I previously had indicated we could expected. Not the best forecast there. Anyway, shower activity with this front will be limited and mostly north of this area tonight and early Wednesday. Very warm and humid air does overtake the region Wednesday with a mid summer feel. A cold front will sink southward across the region Wednesday night and early Thursday, maybe producing a shower or thunderstorm, and the front will not sink too far south on Thursday so cloudiness may linger with a cooler day than Wednesday. A push of high pressure from Canada will bring more sun and cooler air still for Friday, but this high will quickly be offshore by Saturday morning and we’ll see a quick warm-up Saturday with an approaching but weakening cold front possibly causing a late-day shower or thunderstorm in limited locations.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower. Increasingly humid. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90, a bit cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm South Coast early. Less humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52 Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. More humid. Slight risk of a late day shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
A new high pressure area arrives from the west with warm but drier air September 15. Above normal temperatures continue September 16-18 with high pressure dominating. A front in the region at the end of the period may trigger showers with higher humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
Overall dry with above normal temperatures as high pressure remains the dominant player.

40 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    It’s been so nice, so far this school year, to not have one of those 96F to 97F days in early September.

    Coolest start to school year that I can remember in the last few years anyway.

    1. Tom, I was thinking the same thing yesterday when my older son actually needed a sweatshirt in the morning. We’ll take it!

      1. Like the start of the year I recall as a youngun. Sue, congratulations on getting a sweatshirt on your oldest. Grands here are still fighting for tank top and shorts!!!

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thank you for the explanation of the low cloud deck this morning.
    I figured it was something along those lines, but I must admit I was not
    expecting it. I watched Harvey last evening and unless I nodded off, I do not
    recall him even mentioning the possibility.

    I don’t mind it in the slightest. The air today had a really nice feel to it, if that
    makes any sense at all.

      1. 🙂 🙂
        Maybe I was so tired I missed him mentioning it, but I thought
        that Harvey did not mention it. Oh well, no big deal.

  5. No one has mentioned this today, but our tropical as depicted on previous
    GFS runs has basically gone poof (OK, a very weak system remains). We shall
    see if it returns with today’s 12Z run.

    But now the CMC has it. Go figure.

    Euro has a weak system at hour 240. Who knows what it will want to do with it
    on later runs.

            2. I will be more than happy to return to New England with snow on the ground. 😀 I would probably imitatively make a snowball and find my brothers

  7. the models been rather consistant of what ever does form will be weak until after the USVI. I am more than happy about that. There are several tropical waves that if conditions form just right they can form into something but it looks very unlikely through the middle of the month

    Anyways a side note we need to applaud Louis Uccellini director of the NWS he stood with his fellow scientists.

  8. Not sure if anyone on here has been following Hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman’s experience riding out Dorian in Marsh Harbour but he posted a detailed account of the entire ordeal yesterday that is a fascinating read. Terrifying and heart wrenching as well. He is very lucky to be alive.

    https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/posts/10157257013954597

    You should be able to access the link whether you have Facebook or not.

    https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/posts/10157257013954597

    1. I remember the “spray truck”, as we used to call it, would spray well into September in the 1970s. That was the truck that would fill the entire neighborhood with fog that everybody loved the smell of and would run through. How healthy! 😉

      1. I rememeber as well. And we did the same. Scary isn’t it.

        In framingham, 80s, it was this time of year. They didn’t get the word out well that they were spraying. So when we heard the struck was coming, Mac and I would run around the house like mad men closing windows but trying not to wake kids.

    1. I noticed that run did something that I was actually thinking about last night before I started my blog notes.

      I can see a scenario where an tropical reaches the the northwestern Atlantic (off the East Coast) and when it goes north it helps flip the pattern. We’ll have to see.

      1. Yeah, that is exactly what it does there. The end of that run is quite cold after a preceding week in the furnace. I can recall past years where that has happened.

        I have a funny feeling about this next tropical system. It’s peak season, conditions are pretty good for development in the Caribbean, and set up is good for a northward turn towards our latitude. The set up has to be perfect for a direct hit here but I could see a decent sized storm developing and coming at least as close to us as Dorian.

  11. Wow – I just read the hurricane chasers FB post re Dorian that Mark posted above this afternoon. Everyone who loves weather should read that post. His extraordinary experience coupled with his great writing style really pack a punch. We cannot yet comprehend what happened I think. And the thought that absent major behavioral changes these type of events will be ever more common – well… wow. Just wow.

    1. Yes. I’m hoping I can share this on our town FB page. It is something we rarely see and, I think, something we need to read

      1. We should connect on FB – are we allowed to post our names here? If so I’ll post mine and you can find me – I’m likely the only one with my name in us.

        1. You’re allowed to share your name if you don’t mind others knowing it. It’s definitely not required as you can see. 🙂

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