Wednesday Forecast

37 Comments

6:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
The feel of summer will be in full force today as we’ll sit at the northeastern corner of a large wedge of warm to hot air under a ridge of high pressure. Low pressure tracking across the St. Lawrence Valley from west to east dragged a warm front through, introducing this air to the region, which will hang around until a cold front sags southeastward through the area tonight and early Thursday, slowing its progress as a wave of low pressure ridges along it west to east. So Thursday is a transition day back to cooler, but will be somewhat unsettled. A stronger push of high pressure from eastern Canada will send the unsettled weather on its way and provide nice weather during Friday. This high will sink to the southeast and the return flow around it will drag the front back to the north and return the warm and more humid air to the region Saturday, which will once again be pushed away by Sunday as another cold front, though weaker than the first, comes through. So Sunday will be a nice day, drier, but still on the warm side.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early morning. Isolated showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms late-day. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a shower early. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N around dawn.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring areas south of I-90. Less humid. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm mainly late-day. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible early, then partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
Weak cold front passes by early September 16 and high pressure moves north of the region with a cool-down to start next week, then the high sinks south with a warm-up to follow. Mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
The opposite of the 6-10, starting warm, ending cooler and possibly unsettled as we watch high pressure offshore, a trough approaching from the west, and potential tropical moisture near the East Coast.

37 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. Good Morning and also thank you, TK.

    AC is back on. Partly to get the muggy out and partly because I’m not sure if they sprayed last night so will keep windows closed fro a bit as it is windy.

    Mama…..would love to connect on FB. TK said he can send you my name later today. TK—-big thank you!

  5. Good SW wind blowing out there. Warm air advection for sure. BTW, Word Press
    underlines advection in red as if it were misspelled. Interesting.

    6Z GFS has a 940 mb hurricane hitting the Middle West Coast of Florida.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Winter 2019-2020….

    I have been looking at some of the early winter weather forecasts posted on the net. Boy is there a lot of garbage out there! But of the few I watched so far from actual meteorologists, it appears at this early stage that a couple of things will be at play:

    1. Neutral ENSO. Long range models show no tendency towards either El Nino or La Nina. Subtropical jet is less active than last year when we had El Nino.

    2. Very warm waters in the North Pacific should promote ridging over the western US and result in a relatively warm and dry winter for the West.

    3. Ridging in the west translates to more troughing in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Greater chance for a cold winter there with frequent clippers.

    4. North Atlantic waters near Greenland are warm which is promoting Negative NAO. Does this continue into the winter? If it does, it locks the colder air in for the Northeast and increases the chance of coastal storms. Less frequent or non-existent NAO probably means more up and down temp swings – cold shot then warm up and so on as the mean trough sets up to our west.

    5. Precip wise? If subtropical jet is less active and we are depending on clippers from Canada and NAO does not materialize, would seem to support a drier winter.

    6. Solar Cycle – I read that the last time we were in the current cycle was 2009-2010. That winter had strong NAO and the mid-Atlantic got hammered. We were actually cold and dry if I recall as the NAO was so strong, sending storms to our south. Not sure what impact solar cycle may have this year.

    Of course there are many other factors and indices that play into this that I didn’t mention, like Canadian and Siberian snow cover and MJO which can have a big impact on snow chances as we saw last year. Siberia is getting some early season cold and snows now…early season cold air supply?

    Bottom line is that it is early but I do at least like the fact that the North Pacific and North Atlantic waters are warm. The potential for ridging in those locations usually puts troughing somewhere over the eastern 2/3 of the US. I don’t think it will be a snowless winter for us and could even be another quite productive snow year for the interior Northeast and NNE. But we are in that wild card zone and there appear to be no strong signals right now for us in the coastal Northeast.

    This is why TK and most wait till November to make a winter forecast but nonetheless fun to speculate now.

    TK, WxW, and others – I’d be interested to hear your thoughts!

    1. My first inklings:
      Cold start, mild finish.
      Drier than normal.

      That is taking into account what is written above which I have been looking at as well.

      Still some major puzzle pieces missing.

      1. Thanks TK. We shall wait and see what transpires over the next few months.

        Forgot to mention that I looked at the CFS and CanSIPS long range models as well.

        CFS is colder to start, then warmer mid to late winter. Dry to start but then wet Jan and Feb.

        CanSIPS is dry all winter with near to below normal temps from here south, trending colder towards March. It actually has above normal temps for NNE and Eastern CA most of the winter.

        Not much agreement there.

        1. I don’t know what effect it will have, but according to the Alaska’s NWS ice page, the ocean temps north of Barrow are in the mid-upper 40s !!!! (unreal !!)

          A good part of the arctic ocean south of 75N is going to freeze up incredibly late and I assume that this is going to alter the normal arctic jet stream and thus probably affect the mid-latitude jet stream. I wont be surprised by anything we experience in late autumn/early winter.

            1. Oh, not necessarily.

              My thought is because of the lack of ice and the warm arctic, warm air will more easily reach the arctic in winter and in response, the polar vortex will be sent unusually far to the south.

            2. No, this does not look like a 2011-2012 setup. That was a countrywide inferno and virtually snowless.

              And Tom is absolutely correct, when the Arctic is warm, that is when the cold air gets displaced south…

    3. Mark: really great post! I’ll try to go more in depth myself at some point but you covered a lot of key points here. Like you said, the funny thing is that at this point you can do all the analysis in the world and it just seems to give a bunch of mixed signals. It’s still early of course, I’ll probably wait to see where things stand a month or so from now and then take a stab at it.

      2. It changes so much with each run. It’s a long way from the final solution, but it appears a hit could happen almost anywhere.

    2. My mom called them June bugs and said the noise was their call for water. Accurate or not….the sound brings back wonderful memories of my mom.

      1. My older brothers told me the same name, but since I never heard them in June, as I got older I became skeptical and went on to find out a June Bug is a type of beetle and doesn’t sing like its non-beetle distant cousin’s mating call. I’ve never heard the part about the call for water. That one is a first for me. 🙂

        I started to associate the cicada’s song with the coming of the end of summer vacation and the start of school not that far off! OH NO!

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