Friday Forecast

67 Comments

7:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
High pressure dominates aloft and a surface high will sink south of New England allowing the feel of summer to return for the next 4 days. A weak cold front passing through the region Monday night will provide the only rain threat of the 5-day period in the form of a passing shower for some locations, and Tuesday will be slightly cooler as we get into a northwesterly air flow behind that front, though an upper disturbance may produce more cloudiness than we will see any of the 4 days preceding it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)
High pressure dominates with seasonable temperatures September 25 and 29 and warmer than average temperatures the other 3 days.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
High pressure continues to dominate with some up and down to the temperatures, averaging above normal overall, and mainly dry weather.

67 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. We should start to see more frequent intrusions of Canadian air at that point with the ridge weakening overall. But that transition may be slow.

      1. Given climate change, no surprise there. Cool falls are in the distant past for now. In fact, I can’t recall a recent cool Columbus Day weekend.

        1. You probably missed my comment yesterday…

          1) not every autumn is warmer than average, though lately several have been due to AMO.

          2) AMO shift will help return cooler falls again. It will be evident this year.

  5. Mt Washington Auto Road temps help to show why there will be such a quick warmup today.

    The airmass above is fairly warm, in spite of the very shallow surface cool air.

    At 1,600 ft, the air temp is 43.0F.

    Rise up to 4,300 ft and the temp is 62.5F.

    At the summit, its a balmy 51.5F (6,288 ft).

  6. I’ll preface this link by saying it isn’t intended for anything other than amusement. I noticed several media sources used the same term and when you look at the photo, I have to say it is amusingly accurate. (Although, the media sources in South Carolina use a more “appealing” term, so perhaps they would say Palmetto bugs 😉 )

    https://www.fox10phoenix.com/weather/they-are-forming-like-roaches-6-storms-over-atlantic-pacific-regions-tie-a-modern-record

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Even cooler this morning than yesterday at my house. Bottomed out at 42.

    TK: Love you cover photo above.
    It looks like Italy or France. Sure does not look like the USA to me. 🙂

        1. Yes & no . It’s a trip of a lifetime for a fraction of the cost . He leaves on his birthday. We are hoping to take this rare opportunity & go to Aruba

  10. Very nice tree color coming around in the city considering it’s still September. The last few years most trees still were in July-mode.

    An early winter perhaps? A sign of the times to come?

  12. Vicki, my lawn is looking better than it has in awhile as well. I think largely because we have just come off a July and August with above to well above normal precip in our areas, and we have had 2.5″ so far this September. That is normal month to date despite the drier pattern we are getting into now. Even Logan is only -0.3″ departure from normal month to date. So getting into a drier pattern but hardly bone dry yet. In fact, we even have an outside shot of getting to normal precip here for the month of September with 10 days to go. NWS discussion mentions the possibility of “widespread showers and appreciable rainfall possible” Monday night though the rainfall chances look to me to be more focused more to the north.

  13. TK, any early thoughts on the weather the weekend of Oct 4-6 in the White Mtns? Are we back under a ridge and dry/warmer that weekend? I know it’s a long way off but the GFS seems to want to push the ridge further south with some somewhat more unsettled weather riding along the north side of it from the Great Lakes into NNE.

    1. It has. That’s quite true.

      And to answer your question from above, I think ridge will retrograde enough for NW flow and more seasonable.

      1. The “past 4 months” haven’t been true around here but certainly the past month or so have been near or below.

    1. That’s a mouthful. Thanks Mark.

      I still would like to know as to how it effects seasons, short and long term.

  18. From what I understand….

    Positive AMO is warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean waters, Negative AMO is cooler waters. This index usually remains in the positive or negative phase for 20+ years before flipping. We were negative in 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s before flipping positive in the mid 90’s where we have been ever since. However, we are about to the point where we are going to flip negative again for probably the next few decades.

    Negative AMO with the cooler Atlantic waters is typically associated with less hurricane activity in the Atlantic and more droughts in Africa. Plus less dry conditions in the Midwest US.

    My understanding is that AMO’s influence on air temps in N America is most pronounced in the warmer seasons but TK would need to elaborate. Above he is indicating an association between +AMO and warmer falls here in the Northeast.

    2. Thanks again Mark. According to TK we will be having cooler falls in the future. Is that -AMO? I don’t know about the other seasons though.

  19. The AMO correlation is not the strongest, as it has not been observed long enough to be confident it’s a major driver, although I believe we will find that to be the case over time. If we could see into the future that far, it would be cool. But…. not the case. 😉

    As far as we know, so far, the effect is most pronounced in the warm season.

  20. I’m not 100% sure I have the timing of the “above normal” versus cooler days beyond day 5 down quite yet. I may have to make adjustments. In this pattern, which is pretty simple in terms of forecasting weather, forecasting temperatures can be a pain in the butt if you don’t get the timing on wind directions correct. As we have seen, we can be under a big fat upper ridge and still be near to below normal because of the surface wind direction, and likewise we can be much warmer than normal, as the case will be this weekend & Monday.

    1. Last week BB said: “When we know more we’ll say more.” He should have said “when we know more we’ll release him” because I’m guessing that’s what just took place. I don’t really have an opinion on allegations because there is an ongoing investigation. I don’t like to comment with partial or circumstantial evidence given to us by media. Pointless. Ah well, on we go!

      1. If I understand your comment, I agree. I am not even sure I’m ok with the Yankees putting German on administrative leave with pay. I’m not a fan of acting before something is proven. All of that said….I don’t have a clue what ABs contract says. That may have played into it. Our culture now tries in the court of public opinion …e.g., by social media.

    1. I hadn’t seen that yet. I respect whatever the team’s decision is, either way. He’ll have his day in court and hopefully that will all get ironed out. The team did what was best for them, and now they shall move forward with the season.

      1. Agree, TK. I was not in favor of having AB here given his erratic track record. And, this was before we learned about the rape and sexual harassment allegations. These allegations did reinforce my negative image of him as a person. Extremely talented, but a troubled person in many ways. He needs help, in my opinion, and I mean psychiatric help.

        1. I agree he needs help. But I think we have to be careful not to assume he is guilty before he has his day. No matter how something looks, we can never lose sight of that right

          1. Vicki, you’re right. Please note, I was careful to say “rape and sexual allegations.” I don’t presume he’s guilty. But, optically it looks bad, especially given the evidence we do know about him – habitually threatening people, from employers to those who have accused him.

        2. AB thinks he’s going to hook on to another team but I can’t imagine any team willing to undergo off-field drama every week never knowing when the last shoe will drop. The 16 games themselves are tough enough.

          1. Talent is pretty sparse or simply on the IR in the NFL at multiple positions, QB being exhibit A. There’s a need for talented wide-receivers, so I would not be surprised if another team picked him for cheap money.

      2. Yeah the artist there that came out saying. Sexual misconduct well him & his buddies were on a group text & AB was basically harassing her unfortunately. She notified the league ( it’s a definite suspension type thing this happened the other night . Though he still practiced today & all that I basically think when ownership heard that they said screw ( don’t think bill or Brady wanted that . Better off we don’t need him he’s a head case & more

  23. Thank you, TK.

    Ridging is producing Indian summer like weather. The light reminds us that it is autumn, but the temperature suggests summer.

    Today was the first day in well over a year that I could sense the recent prolonged dry spell. That is, the vegetation looks dry and in some cases parched, and the air had a different feel to it, the kind we felt a lot several years ago during the drought. TK, you were right to point this out in one of your previous forecasts. It would not surprise me if some brush fires crop up this weekend and next week.

  24. North America accounts for 4.8% of the earth’s surface, including the oceans.

    Good that that 5% wasn’t warmer than average.

    1. I think it was just being pointed out as a statistic for the region. It’s been a while since the continental US had been that cool.

      It’s also far more common to see larger above average areas than below average areas. This ties into something I have touched on before but will expand on further.

      1. Agreed !

        I’m not a Joe Bistardi fan at all. I don’t share his view on climate change, which is fine. It’s the way he communicates it that I don’t care for. I had seen his post and Eric Fisher’s response a day or 2 ago.

  25. I neglected to mention that Boston’s high temperature on September 19 1983 was 97. That was during that blistering hot September that the country had, the likes of we have never seen since.

  26. Next up today for images of flooding, North Dakota.

    Grand Forks, ND : 4+ inches of rain last several hours, 3 of which occurred in a 3 hr period.

    1. They’re on the wet side of a stable pattern. Stable as it it doesn’t change much. This is when we tend to see “extremes”, like our extremely dry weather.

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