Monday Forecast

83 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Autumn has arrived, but it will still feel like summer today with a warm, more humid southwesterly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front will cross the region tonight, producing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, then be offshore by dawn Tuesday, a day which will be cooler and drier, but with some passing cloudiness due to a pocket of colder air aloft. These clouds may release a few sprinkles or light showers but these will be the exception and far from the rule. High pressure pushes in with fair and seasonably mild weather Wednesday, then drifts off to the east with a quick warm-up for Thursday, before a weak cold front comes through with hardly any clouds and no rain threat Thursday night, knocking the temperature back to seasonable levels for Friday with more dry weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon. Partly sunny late afternoon. More humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm west to east mid evening to overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW toward dawn.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
A little flatter flow allows a quick warm-up September 28, a front to pass through late-day or night with maybe a shower, then a slight cool down for September 29. The cycle repeats September 30 with a warm-up then a slight cool-down to begin October as high pressure builds over eastern Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)
A quick return to ridging then a flatter flow follows with a strong west to east jet stream keeping systems weak and weather mainly dry. Warmest weather relative to normal will likely be early in the period then more seasonable air follows.

83 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of temperature questions:

    1. Does anyone reach 90 today? (Logan does not count!)
    2. Logan’s high was reported as 89 yesterday. I do NOT believe that for 1 second.
    I reached 85 in JP with loads of transpiration from countless trees, so I venture
    that Logan’s real high was 86 or 87 and certainly NOT 89. (!@&(#&!)@#&)(!@*(#

    Thoughts?

    Have a great Monday all. Certainly staring out beautiful.

    2. You already know my thoughts on Logan and I continue to stand by them.

      the national weather service has apparently determined there is no problem.

  6. Dew points are creeping up there. 64-66 across MA.
    67-70 across RI and CT. YUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKK!!!!!

    GO AWAY!!!

  7. Thank you, TK.

    It’s another summer day in autumn. Warm, dry, and the air is still filled with cicada sounds.

    On a football note, Freddie Kitchens is a woefully inadequate coach. In the short span of about a minute last night, the man managed to: a. Not challenge an obvious pass interference, which would have given the Browns an additional down; b. Go for it on 4th and 9 near mid field, with a lot of time on the clock; c. Call for a draw play on 4th and 9 (has never been done before in the history of the NFL on 4th and 9, and, quite frankly, never will be). Kitchens is inept, and I wish the broadcasters would be more blunt in their assessment. Don’t beat around the bush and protect these guys. There’s a very important reason the Patriots are so much better than all of the competition during the last 20 years, and that is management and coaching. The NFL is filled with very bad front office personnel who make really poor decisions, and coaches who should not be coaches.

    1. DRY in the sense that it is not raining or drizzling or foggy. But as far as the air goes, it is anything but dry. 🙂

  9. Logan and Norwood up to 81 while Bedford is coming in at 82.

    Here’s guessing that those 3 stations reach 90, whether or not that 90 is real is another question. 🙂

    1. What I figure is that until someone does something to show they are not real, they need to be taken as such. Otherwise, other numbers are just random. But that is just how my mind works. 😉

      1. I am firmly entrenched in camp TK on this one.
        Logan’s sensor is full of crap. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        NO WAY it was 89 yesterday.

        1. I am not questioning TK or anyone. But assigning a random number seems counterproductive to me. What is that fishing term…fish or cut bait 😉

  10. currently 84 at both Logan and Norwood while Bedford is coming in at 82.

    90 appears to be in play, unless sufficient cloudiness is introduced, which is possible.

    2. If the known hotspot of Norwood and Logan are the same, that is even further proof that Logan’s temperature is completely out to lunch.

      1. Again – not questioning this as it seems reasonable. So what is the solution?

        Also, at Sea-Tac (sp?) remember, the temps are correct because of all of the other things that come into play at airports. Even more convincing that we need a spot other than an airport for temps.

  13. I sent an email to Cliff Mass regarding the temps at Logan. He had the same question with regard to Sea-Tac; and as I recall, several agencies worked with him to test the equipment. I had intended to do this a while back and was distracted by silly old work.

    I’m hoping that I will hear back from him. I did include the URL to Woods Hill Weather.

  14. Here you go if you want more info.

    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-seattle-tacoma-airport-temperature.html

    https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-great-sea-tac-temperature-mystery.html
    This one has some interesting comments

    http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/warm-weather/seattle-weather-station-inaccurate-temperatures/

    https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/its-hot-but-is-it-really-90-degree-hot-in-seattle
    if you can get this to load properly

    or just search: cliff mass sea-tac temperature inaccuracy

  17. Seems like we overshot the dewpoint expectation today.

    Thought I saw, on TV anyway, a projection of 64F or 65F, seems 67F to 68F is the most common number.

    It sure didn’t take long for the school hallways to feel sultry and uncomfortable.

  19. TK – have you called the NWS Boston office. Below is from Dr. Mass. I’d call but I would not be able to answer questions in depth.

    “Well… a lot of airport temperature sensors have problems. The NWS is responsible for checking on this…call the Boston office..cliff”

  20. Thanks, TK…

    Warm one in the classroom today! Worse yet, my classroom faces south and the sun is low in the sky and shining directly on the greenhouse-type windows spiking the temperature.

    I also have the added distraction of major construction of the new school, campus and fields right outside my room.

    This is the live camera of what I am dealing with. Lots of heat, humidity, noise and dirt!!!

    https://www.middleboro.k12.ma.us/domain/1401

    I am on the first floor. The camera is on the roof directly above me!!!

  21. 88 at my house in JP and that is the Max so far.
    91 at Logan, 9o in many locations, including Norwood, Bedford and Windsors Locks.

    1. I’m extremely impressed with 1,000 ft Worcester being 84F. Adds a bit of credence to a sea-level temp being close to 90F.

        1. 16 days out, so we know what happens with that.
          I posted it because I thought it was pretty interesting
          given all of the warmer weather we have been enjoying.

          Perhaps, if nothing else, it shows a possible trend
          towards cooler weather.

        1. I am not trying to convince, Just reporting the current
          conditions across the area. Also, this is from the Meso site, so sometimes there are rounding issues and the 90s
          being reported could easily really be 89.

          BUT you have convinced me that LOGAN is wacked out.

  25. SAK will not mind me sharing the fact that he was at the National Weather Service today and speaking to them in person about many topics including the temperature errors. Yup, we’ve been right all along.

    1. They have already replaced the entire sensor at Bradley which had gone bad.

      What was disappointing was the fact that their tolerance level is 1 to 5 degrees. I’m sorry but anything more than one degree either side of accurate is unacceptable.

      The good news is there is now a compiling of evidence soon on the way to show that Lawrence and Boston are wrong. This should lead to action in the hopefully not too distant future.

      1. Most interesting and thank you.

        To add to this, currently Bradley is reading 86, while up the road a bit in Windsor Locks, it is 90. Really 4 degrees in 10 miles or so?
        Possible, but seems strange to me. Is Windsor Locks wrong as well???

        TK I am at 89 in JP. I believe that to be accurate or very very close to accurate. Your thoughts? Thanks

      2. Hvae they fixed Lawrence? It seems to be much better lately.
        Currently 87 at Lawrence, which seems reasonable.

      3. I am glad to see this was finally addressed. It never makes sense to me not to address a problem. Frankly, I don’t even understand the one degree. If you have equipment, it should be calibrated properly….period.

        But I still don’t understand. Why don’t they simply test the equipment at Logan? It is the only way to know 100% if it is wrong.

      1. I could be wrong, but I always found Worcester reports to be fairly accurate, but have found Fitchburg reports to be suspect for temp and snowfall.

        1. Interesting. I haven’t had any concerns with Worcester and admit to not paying a whole lot of attention to Fitchburg. Snowfall reports in this area seem to be accurate. The one person in framingham that was way off from others hasn’t reported for a couple of years.

  28. On the ASOS temperature sensors… it seems that in general when they go bad, it typically results in a warm bias during the day, especially sunny days, with less obvious or negligible impacts at night or during inclement weather. I guess this pattern isn’t entirely surprising considering the sensors are probably all “going bad” in the same way. They also had this issue at Albany, NY last summer/fall when I was there, with temperatures that were clearly at least a couple and sometimes several degrees high. I’m not sure whether that one’s been repaired (I think it may have been), but it was especially bad, probably worse than Logan is now. Of course, there could be other errors out there leading to systematic warm or cold biases at individual sites, but I’m fairly confident there’s some common technological thread among the sites we’ve seen with warm biases in recent years.

    Temperatures aside, I’m impressed by the wind speeds at Logan this afternoon. Gusting to 31 mph from the SW on the latest hourly ob. Rarely do we see those speeds from that direction on a clear sky day.

    2. Thank you WxW! Great info as always. BTW, October 24 2020 – SNE Wx Conference makes its return. More info to come!

  29. If, IF, the current day 8 thru 10 outlook holds, and we’re going to run at 90F sometime during th October 1st thru 3rd time frame.

  31. So far Logan has had 15 days of 90+ degrees and Eric predicts more to come for October…at least 2 more. 🙁

    I hope we don’t have to wait until November to be rid of EEE.

    2. Actually, Eric did not predict at least 2 more 90 degree days. He said there’s a small chance we could see another one, perhaps two.

      1. I don’t recall him using the word “small” chance but I hope you heard better than me. I’ll take ZERO. 🙂

  32. Bring back the weather we had last Wednesday sunny skies highs in the 60s and I enjoy those two mornings with lows in the upper 30s. I was expecting this to come as summer never goes quietly and there is always at least one last base of heat before summer gets knocked out and doesn’t get up.

  33. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/20190917/20190917_usdm.pdf

    I, myself, believe we are set up for 1 more 90F day and wouldn’t be shocked by a 2nd.

    The drought monitor shows the southeast quickly becoming dry and should continue to do so this next week or 2 with highs regularly in the 90s and just moderate humidity, allowing for continued quick drying.

    So, the source region for our heat is dry and abnormally hot. Additionally, I think we’d all agree our region is becoming dry in the top layer.

    So, high heat in a source region (southeast US) + drying ground soils in our area + high southeast heat budget + perfect pattern to transport some heat into New England = a fair opportunity at another very warm to hot day or 2 before the pattern transitions in about 10 to 12 days.

    3. Sun angle is against us. Models are also starting to over-forecast warmth and under-forecast retrogression.

  35. HM
    “I am fired up for this pattern coming….CFS starting to show snow for the Northeast…not a lot but first flakes possible by the 8-10 Oct.”

    1. The only problem with the CFS, it’s been craptacular lately, so it’s hard to trust much of what it says.

  36. You could have swings in the weather during the month of October. In 1979 Windsor Locks CT had an EF 4 Tornado and one week later had 1.7 inches of snow.

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