Saturday Forecast

40 Comments

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
Again the ride is relatively easy, from a forecasting standpoint, with only one rain threat this weekend, from a cold front which will produce some showers tonight. Otherwise, it’s dry, with temperatures starting with a bit of summer feel today, then a more seasonably cool couple days to end September early in the week, and a quick reminder that summer left us not too long ago as we start October with another quick warm shot of air. How long that lasts into the second day of the month will depend on the timing of a cold front dropping southward out of Canada. Right now at several days out I am seeing signs of an “upside down” day, one that starts warm, and ends much cooler. This may need to be tweaked, of course, based on the timing of the front. The other wild card for day 5 is how much rain occurs. Also will need to fine-tune that the next few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few rain showers possible, any may be briefly heavy. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to N overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with rain showers arriving. Highs 70-77 early, turning cooler later. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)
High pressure in eastern Canada will provide cooler air for this 5-day period, but may be far enough north to allow an area of low pressure to bring a period of rain about October 4. We’ll have to watch for an upper level low to produce a few showers October 5 but otherwise the October 5-6 weekend looks mainly dry, just cool.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Slower transitions means we come out of the cool spell into a more gradual moderation that lasts much of this period. Also expecting dry weather to be dominant with no strong sign of a turn to a wetter pattern at this point.

40 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. Barry has it quite wet next Thursday into Friday. He didn’t use the term “nor’easter” but what else would one call temps of 57 and 55 respectively with NE winds of 10-20 mph?

    Awfully very early in the fall season for one though.

    Congratulations again to Barry! 🙂

    1. Not unusual for October. He has it because the Euro has consistently forecast that for a couple days.

      1. Was if October 1996 we had the tremendous rains? Or maybe late sept but right around this time if I’m not mistaken. No idea if that was considered a nor’easter tho

        1. It was October 1996 Vicki. I had tickets to game one of the World Series as the Yankees were hosting the Braves and the game got postponed on Saturday and was played on Sunday.

            1. One of many notables from October 1996 was the flooding of the T Green Line tunnel underneath the Fenway area near Kenmore. Iirc it took days to pump the water out and then several months for the system itself running back to normal. It was slow-going to say the least for commuters.

              2. Another notable is that daughter was away and mac and I were responsible for getting her pony…who needed to be out of his stall for soundness reasons….outside in the mud and rain.

                Perhaps that was notable only to us eh?

    1. I think they have a band of showers and a few thunderstorms go through there sometime later Friday to early Saturday (based on current timing) but I don’t see them as 2 wet days. Just more an interruption.

      2. What do you think about the higher elevations in the Whites on Saturday? In the clouds or perhaps gradually clearing as the day goes on? Any snow and ice above treeline Friday night? Still planning on hiking that day while we are up there but will delay till Sunday if conditions are much better.

  10. I know it’s only a preseason game but the Bruins look like they are playing a high school team dressed in the Chicago Blackhawks uniforms…

    1. Can’t believe Robin Lehner turned down a one year deal to return to the islanders only to take a similar 1 year contract with the Blackhawks. Good chance they are missing the playoffs again this year.

  11. In the past few weeks a return to normalcy as far as weather is concerned. Sure, it’s somewhat above normal in terms of temperature in SNE, but it’s the usual fantastic fall weather I’ve grown accustomed to for decades. Last year was an anomaly in this regard, with the limited sun and lots of rain. Autumn is our most beautiful season, in my view. By contrast, autumn is usually not very fun to endure in the British Isles or the Netherlands. Last year was an anomaly there as it was very dry and sunny. Well, the parade of Atlantic lows has returned in full fury, gales and all, in the past few weeks. Britain is having typical British weather this time of year. And, we’re having typical New England weather this time of year.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-49863653

    1. Maybe…except we keep setting record highs.

      Eric

      Tuesday and Wednesday lit with record highs in the east. Good chance for a number of October all-time monthly records

    2. It’s quite typical (including variation) in many places at this time. And now that the common issue of automated stations starting to read temps above what they actually are, there is a fairly good chance that some of our newly set records were not actually set at all. But with the speed of fixes, and lack of urgency to address the issue, I think the skewed data will just be taken as the real thing. I don’t even know how that can be considered remotely ok.

          3. Thank you Tom. Yikes. Am I reading correctly that Boston is lagging most places, including just west of it, in higher temp averages?

            Also thanks for telling me to hit temp above map.

          4. The position of the higher anomalies makes perfect sense. We’ve had a stable pattern with a ridge basically parked there. Not nearly as intense as 1983, but a shadow of that pattern, so the larger anomalies would definitely result.

        2. I was talking about the US NWS related sensors, not worldwide weather. It was a specific reply to what’s going on here. I am not sure how gauges are elsewhere. Would require some research that I don’t have time or health to do right now. I’m not even sure it’s possible to get info on how well-calibrated sensors are worldwide. 😉

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