Sunday Forecast

49 Comments

8:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
No changes again. Quick summary. Two nice day to end September, a quick shot of summer-like warmth to start October followed by a fairly strong but slow moving cold front which brings unsettled weather in during Wednesday and again later Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves along it, and after a warm start Wednesday things go the other way, turning much cooler by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then lots of clouds with rain showers arriving. Highs 70-77 early, turning cooler later. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain late-day or night. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)
A low pressure wave departing the region October 4 will bring wet weather to start then a drying trend. High pressure in eastern Canada will bring fair and cool weather for the October 5-6 weekend followed by a moderating trend as the high center slides to the southeast early next week with continued mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Mainly fair, milder start to this period then unsettled weather returns with a cool-down later as the same general pattern continues, but with slower transitions.

49 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Starting out reasonably mild this morning. We’re up to 66 here in JP already.

  5. Good morning, everyone, and thanks as always, TK…

    I think we should establish a new weather category called “Deck Days.”
    I have sat out on the “piazza” (as my grandfather used to call the porch) so many days this summer and early fall enjoying my backyard, my coffee and my music !

    I nominate Vicki to keep track of “Deck Days!!!”
    (All in favor say “Ay!”) It’s unanimous!

    🙂 🙂 🙂

    At least we wouldn’t need to recalibrate “Deck Days.” (a little snark????)

    Hey, enjoy the day, y’all, and the Pats game!

    1. Haha. You won’t like my tally. Every day…rain,snow, etc….is a deck day. Of course there are two exceptions…..thunder and EEE.

  8. Barry has it quite hot for this time of year with a high temp of 88F for Wednesday. Can I assume his favorite Euro? 😉

    At least by next weekend there will be no more talk of “abnormally dry” conditions any time soon, if not for the rest of this year.

  9. Thanks TK! Should be a beautiful day out there.

    Last night was an exciting one for me: I issued my first severe thunderstorm warning as an NWS meteorologist!

    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SVRPHI&e=201909290241

    As warnings go, it was an interesting one. For one, because of where it happened the warning affected ~1.5 million people which needless to say is rather nerve-wracking when you’re issuing your first warning. As it turned out though, this became a little more than one of the marginal severe storms we typically get in the Northeast. Cherry Hill, NJ (not far from where I live) was hit quite hard just before 11PM. Numerous trees were downed including some onto homes with thousands of power outages. Ideally I would’ve “beefed up” this warning a little with something more than the generic 60mph winds as I suspect Cherry Hill saw some 70-80mph downburst gusts, but that’s tough to do in real time especially at night and I was glad to get it out in time and in the right place. It was just the one storm too, only game in town. So I’m 1 for 1, maybe a good time to call it a career 😉

    https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2019/09/29/storms-leave-their-mark-in-camden-county-pulling-down-trees-power-lines/

  10. TK has it in his medium and long range and the models are starting to signal it repetitively.

    A building back of mild to warm weather after the last week cool down.

    Troffing returning to the inter mountain west and ridging in the east.

  11. As it stands now, I think Logans wind will turn N or NE early Wednesday, before Boston can approach 90F.

    But Tuesday overnight is going to be one warm October night and I could see logan approach 80F by 9 or 10am Wednesday.

    Hartford, Providence might have a shot at 85F or a bit higher.

  12. Congratulations, WxWatcher!

    I’ll bet your adrenaline was pumping during the event!!!

    Were you by yourself? Before issuing a warning, do you have to consult with your colleagues or get approval from the MIC?

    1. It was definitely a lot of emotions! There were three of us on shift at the time, and as is common practice I consulted with the lead forecaster before issuing.

  13. I may be lowering Wed’s temps a little more next update. We’re going to be on the cool side of that front sooner rather than later.

  14. Thanks TK.

    Nice job WxW! I didnt even realize there was a threat of severe weather down there last night.

    And thanks Captain for the links to the Gloria coverage. Always fun to look back at the old videos. I remember tracking that storm on TWC as a kid from Upstate NY. I remember being envious at the time of the people living in CT 🙂

    1. It was very bad football, except if you like defense. Brady was awful, plain and simple. But, the Bills have excellent defense. They did last year, too. This year it’ll propel them into the playoffs. I think it’s the best defense the Patriots will face all year. Thankfully, the Patriots have excellent defense, too. However, I did not like the unnecessary hit on Allen by Jones – helmet-to-helmet and Allen was already tackled. I’ll never understand the NFL rule book. On that play, the penalties on both sides supposedly `offset.’ Well, no, they did not. One was a 15 yard (egregious) personal foul, the other a 10 yard holding call. In my view the only time penalties should offset is if they’re equal in value. Oh well, I could go on and on about the illogical NFL rules.

      2. I would never wish a team to lose from the actions of one player. They should have just tossed him from the game and he should be fined and maybe miss a game.

        1. Sorry but that is how I run. It was an evil play and he deserved to be benched. They did not deserve a win after a helmet to helmet on a man that was already tackled. The damage that could and may have been done is possibly irreparable.

          If the pats had been worthy of a win….they should have pulled him.

          1. But remember I had an uncle being scouted by the professionals who spent most of his life in a mental institution because of a hit to his head.

            1. I fully sympathize. But I don’t think Tom Brady and the rest of the team should pay for the actions of one. They didn’t do it.

              The player should have been immediately benched and the NFL should fine and suspend him for the action. But to give the team a loss in a game they all were trying hard to compete in? I don’t agree with that at all.

              1. If they had the decency to pull Jon’s I would agree. But they left him in which condoned what he did. Because the rules suck….doesn’t mean the team cannot show respect. I lost some respect for them today

              2. I never said that the nfl should give them a loss. Not sure how you read my comment as that? I simply said they are not deserving of a win by allowing a player to do what he did

                2. I knew we’d agree at some point 🙂 😉 That is the reason I don’t think they deserved the win. The team didn’t step up. But it is what it is.

                3. The league can and will
                  fine him. They can also suspend him. The league will look and see if the defender should have avoided that helmet to helmet or if the QB moved vertically that caused what would have been a shoulder hit to be a hit to the head. It looked like option 1 and I wouldn’t be surprised by a league issued 1 game suspension and very large fine.

    3. A bit of both. Not the Pats best game on O, but the D was great. And in the end, a W is a W. Onto Week 5!

  17. At the moment I think we’re looking at a morning cold frontal passage in Boston on Wednesday.
    1) 90 was never going to happen. Those were poor forecasts made off model #’s.
    2) 80 is still achievable in southern areas with enough sun and a high enough launching pad, but that may be a stretch. We’ll need the front to be slower than I think it’s going to be. At this point, I don’t see that. It wouldn’t even surprise me if I have the timing too slow. We will see any rainfall behind the front, and we may get a few hours of it sometime later in the day.

    Also, I’m starting to lean a little faster and further south with the later-week rain threat. The trend is actually drier.

    Also also, next drought monitor should have parts of southern New England in moderate drought. If not then, by the one after that, unless I am REALLY wrong about what I think is coming up.

  18. I’m very happy with the Pats win today.

    Gutsy road win, won by the D and special teams, in a tough environment against a team that has an excellent defense and a chance to go something in the order of 9 – 7.

    Onto the Redskins.

    1. Thank you! And thanks to all you guys for the kind words! Yes, that is it. It’ll definitely be getting a spot on my walls 🙂

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