Thursday Forecast

46 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)
The cool air is in control now and will be into the weekend before moderation occurs. The pattern is a little more active in the short term as the frontal boundary that brought the chill is sitting just to the south and will serve as a pathway for low pressure, which will bring a period of rain tonight and early Friday. High pressure brings dry weather for later Friday and much of the weekend. The next low pressure area brings wet weather as early as Sunday night and more likely Monday, accompanied by warmer and more humid air as well by that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off early morning. Breaking clouds later morning then clearing afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of fog forming. Risk of frost interior lower elevations. Lows 35-40 interior low elevations, 40-45 elsewhere except 45-50 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Frost likely away from coastal and urban locations. Lows 30-35 interior lower elevations, 35-40 elsewhere except 40-45 urban centers and immediate shore. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds then fading with thicker clouds late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Humid. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)
Drier and cooler air returns October 8 as low pressure moves away and high pressure sits to the west. October 9-12 look mainly dry overall but may be rather cool as the pattern blocks up somewhat with upper level low pressure to the east and a ridge to the west. Some moderation may occur later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)
High pressure should be in general control with mainly dry weather and variable temperatures.

46 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    49 at my house this morning, but we’ve been down to 42 and 43 twice, so no big deal.
    The difference today was that chilling NE wind blowing pretty good plus no sun to speak of and no prospects for it warming up much, so rather than being stubborn, I threw on a light leather coat today. You happy TK? 🙂

  4. Thanks TK
    This day in the weather history 40 years ago the F4 Windsor Locks Tornado. This remains the costliest tornado on record in the northeastern United States and caused major damage to the New England Air and Space Museum in Windsor Locks.
    This is a good read that has images and stories from that day 40 years ago.
    https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/HAR-1979-Tornado-Parallax-Total-Devastation-Remembering-the-1979-Tornado-560284441.html?okij

    2. Great read, JJ. As you know I spent considerable time in Suffield for years prior to 1977. I have no idea how I do not remember this as well as I think I should.

  9. Thanks TK.

    47 at the house this AM…..shock to the system after yesterday!

    Impressive warmth in CT yesterday including some records on the shoreline….

    Stamford – 90F
    New Haven – 90F
    Bridgeport – 87F (second warmest Oct day ever)
    Hartford/Brainard – 87F
    Willimantic – 84F
    BDL – 83F

    Looks like the 80’s made it into most of RI as well.

    This may be the last 80+ we see for a long time.

  11. Getting back to the Windsor Locks tornado there has only been one F4 tornado in CT since then and it came on July 10, 1989 in Hamden, CT and this was part of a big outbreak of severe weather that day in the northeast which was my first weather memory at five years old.

  15. Nice panorama of the fall foliage looking towards Pinkham Notch from the Mt Washington Auto Road yesterday. Some cool cloud formations as well…

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1179451929883238400?s=20

    First accumulating snow of the season forecast in the Whites tonight for elevations about 4,000′ with 2-4″ expected. Wind gusts to 85mph tomorrow PM will create blowing snow and deeper drifts along with wind chills below zero.

    https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/higher-summit-forecast.aspx

  18. In a CBS story last night about the severe drought in parts of Georgia, Alabama and Kentucky, I heard the phrase “Flash Drought.” Apparently, the severe drought conditions have rapidly developed throughout the last month or so

  19. Went to hopkinton for lunch. It rained most of the drive. Large drops that didn’t really amount to much. I did notice some pockets of brighter colors. Here there is still a lot of green and the trees that have turned are that ugly burnt orange. I seem to recall that some turned a vibrant color toward the end of autumn last year.

  20. Some breaking weather news an EF0 tornado in Portsmouth, RI yesterday
    From NWS Boston
    CONFIRMED EF-0 TORNADO IN PORTSMOUTH, RI.
    An EF-0 tornado w/ winds of 65 mph impacted the community of Portsmouth, RI yesterday, October 2nd, 2019.

    From meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    I believe this is the first tornado on record in Newport County, RI since modern records began in 1950.

    1. Given time it would happen eventually. Of course there’s a big difference between 1950 to now and the beginning of weather to now. 😉

      RI is small. The chance of a tornado anywhere is pretty remote.

      I am also fairly certain that many, many events recorded as just “wind damage” before the late 1980s were probably events like this one, not reported or recorded as very weak tornadoes.

  21. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the ECMWF flip flop so many times regarding early next week.

  22. With just about everyone carrying a video camera (ie cell phone) with them at all times, we’re seeing more and more of these events recorded, not only does this make for some awesome video, but I’m sure meteorologists and scientists alike are finding the quantity and quality of these videos a treasure trove of information to analyze, especially with each storm being different than the next and in different parts of the country with different topographical and ocean influences.

    1. You are exactly correct. I’ve had people say they can’t believe how many weather events happen these days. I correct them: Weather has always been happening. Now everybody is recording it. 😉

      1. I have recordings from 1986 when we got a video camera and have books of photos before that. My FIL had videos to the 50s. Sweden, Rome, South Africa. My BIL has them now I think. We were probably exceptions….surely he was. It both were fascinated by weather

        1. My FILs brother was sr VP for Kodak. He’s the one who built the ski lodge in Stowe. It’s how I know the weather difference between them and now.

  23. The heat dome is dying. And as far as New England is concerned, I stand by what I said that after our recent warm up, we probably won’t see 80 again.

    1. It is 95 in Rome, Georgia right now after highs of 101 (today), 100 yesterday and 98 both Monday and Tuesday.

      1. It’s still hot down there, and will be for a couple to a few more days. But the heat dome is indeed dying. This was a smaller but concentrated version of 1983’s, but of much shorter duration.

    2. TK, does a heat dome have an actual “dome”, as in a raised height up into the atmosphere at the center?

      One illustration showed a heat dome on a map, where the center high pressure had a low pressure on each side, creating a visual shape like an arched caterpillar. In that example, the “dome” referred to the two-dimensional feature on a map (an Omega block).

      Also, how would a derecho form on top of a heat dome? Anyone have links to more information?

  24. “Storm Lorenzo” is lashing the western coast of Ireland right now.

    The full force of Storm Lorenzo is being felt along the west and south west coasts tonight with high winds, torrential rain and heavy seas.

    Met Éireann has said the system will be at its most intense in the early hours of the morning, before turning inland and weakening.

    A more prolonged period of heavy rain is forecast in north western areas early in the morning.

    Met Éireann’s Gerry Murphy said there may be wind gusts of up to 130km/hr in the coming hours.

  25. Vicki to answer what you said, we were the exceptions . I was taking numerous cloud photos with a Kodak instamatic camera in 1984. 😉

    1. I still have that Kodak instamatic. I’m in the process of finding a slide projector. We dug the slides out from my early 70s and the projector doesn’t work

        1. Neat stuff!! We have thousands upon thousands of slides preserved down in dad’s “media” area.

    1. Aww you are nice. Not from me. From her dad and her Nonno and her uncle. But you are right. My son minored in photography also.

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