Sunday Forecast

19 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 12-16)
Today’s discussion will be much shorter than yesterday’s, mainly because there are not really any changes to the forecast beyond minor tweaks. Summarizing, we enter a milder westerly air flow but still have a couple disturbances that may produce rain showers, favoring areas south of Boston with timing pre-dawn Monday, and far northwest of Boston later Monday (a disturbance I’m giving a bit more weight to than previously). A bubble of high pressure brings nice weather Tuesday before low pressure approaches Wednesday, a day that may dawn bright but end wet and windy.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing rain showers late night, favoring areas south of Boston. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of rain showers eastern areas early morning. Risk of a late-day rain shower central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Breaking clouds and areas of fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW then diminishing.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 55-62. Wind shifting to NW 15-30 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 18-22)
High pressure approaches from the west keeping it cool, dry, and breezy October 18, then settle to the south of the region with dry weather and a warming trend October 19-20 weekend into early next week. A cold front approaching sometime early in the week at least increases the wind and may bring a rain shower risk as well.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 23-27)
General west to east flow pattern continues early in the period when a trough from the west should bring a rain shower risk to start the period followed by a shot of much cooler air. I’m no more confident about the set-up later in the period, but still see a potential set-up that could put low pressure south of the region by the October 26-27 weekend, but not sure if it would be close enough for impact, if it even set-up that way. So for now will stay with the mostly dry and moderating trend for late period but with very low confidence.

19 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    2. I went apple picking at the grocery store this year, but I did go to the farm yesterday and do everything else pretty much, especially stroll around and take photos, and then a long winding drive home with much of the same.

      This morning, like all Sunday mornings, are spent with my mom. We’re planning for the holidays ahead and having a mini brunch. 🙂

    1. This could be the Yankees year (again). They’ve had plenty for sure! As a Red Sox fan I don’t partake in the anti Yankees chants etc. .. I’ve never been a fan of that kind of thing. It’s a great rivalry between those teams – just wasn’t much of a match up this year..haha. I hope you are enjoying the post season!

  5. I am somewhat surprised with all that mist/drizzle yesterday, Logan only received a teeny 0.01 inch. I believe the final total for the storm is somewhere under 0.50 inch.

  7. Philip the Astros had the best record in baseball with 107 wins which is why they have the home field advantage this series. The Yankees had 103 wins. My stepdad who is a Red Sox fan said back in the summer this is the Yankees year.

    1. I would say your stepdad is correct. If anything, I thought it might have been the Dodgers that had the best record in baseball and the Yankees at least had home field for the entire AL playoffs. The Astros series could be interesting after all.

  9. Thanks TK.

    The 12z GFS continuing to show northern and southern stream energy merging to form a significant coastal storm off Cape Cod Wed night:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019101312&fh=90

    Looks like some heavy rain and wind potential. If this were winter, we would be talking rain/snow line and some heavy snow totals in central and northern NE. In fact the mountains of western Maine may even see some accumulating wet snow out of this.

    Down the road, there are a couple shots of what would probably be the coldest air of the season thus far in late Oct. Maybe some first flakes in the air with that second shot around 10/28 as currently modeled.

  10. JJ, the Yankees have really made a statement in the playoffs so far. 3 decisive wins against the Twins and another one in game 1 at Houston. If they can find a way to beat Verlander tonight, I think this series could be in the bag regardless of what Cole does in Game 3. And for all intents and purposes, the ALCS is the World Series this year. I don’t see the Cardinals or Nationals having a chance against the Yankees or Astros.

    1. Agree. The Yankees have turned their pitching around. It still isn’t fabulous. But, for some reason guys like Tanaka dial it in during the post-season. Moving forward the Yankees have a tremendous future ahead. As good as the 1996-2000 stretch? Perhaps. I can’t say that about the Red Sox. Too many question marks and poor upper management decisions (albatrosses).

      The NL is weaker than ever in my opinion. The differences are stark, and should be addressed by MLB.

      On a very sad note, the Angels appear involuntarily culpable in the death of Tyler Skaggs (one of their employees gave Skaggs oxycodone pills, which he ingested along with a cocktail of drugs; the employee says that he had been doing this for years, and for multiple players). This could turn out to be a major scandal, involving more than just the Angels.

  11. Mark I agree with you if the Yankees win tonight and go up two nothing the series could be in the bag. The Astros don’t play well in Yankee Stadium. I am happy because all I wanted was a split in Houston.

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