Wednesday Forecast

246 Comments

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 16-20)
High pressure is exiting today but is close enough that we start with sunshine, but a vigorous low pressure trough moving eastward from the Upper Midwest and carrying a surface low will spawn a secondary low just southwest of New England this evening that will move rapidly northeastward right across southern New England tonight, maxing out in intensity by early Thursday as it does a cyclonic loop over NH/VT, then pulls away through Maine later Thursday. This type of track brings a quick shot of heavy rain to the region in most cases, and this won’t be much different than the average case, though the heaviest of the rain will likely occur west of southeastern New England, with another strip of heavier rainfall offshore, leaving this area somewhat “in the middle”, though not to downplay the impact of heavy rain reducing visibility for overnight driving, and road flooding especially as wind/rain knocks down leaves and clogs up storm drains. So even though the heaviest rainfall, which may contain embedded thunderstorms, will have exited pre-dawn, there may be some lingering road and parking lot flooding into the Thursday morning commute to be aware of. The other story with this system is the wind, which will become moderate to strong from the southeast and east ahead of the low’s arrival, variable during its passage and somewhat weaker, then returning from the west to northwest at moderate to strong speeds during Thursday, then diminishing only gradually through Friday as the low expands its size while traveling through eastern Canada as high pressure approaches from the west. Some tree damage is inevitable in our aging forest, and therefore some power outages will likely result. Coastal flooding will not be an issue with this storm system. Need a break? You got it this weekend as high pressure takes over, centered to the south, allowing a nice moderation in temperature, although expect a cold start on Saturday morning and a chilly Sunday morning. It will be the afternoons that are pleasantly mild to warm.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening from southwest to northeast, peaking overnight with moderate to heavy rain and possible thunder, diminishing to scattered rain showers by dawn from south to north. Lows 50-57. Wind SE to E 15-25 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, stronger gusts in all areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with numerous to scattered rain showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated rain showers. Highs 56-63. Wind variable 10-20 MPH early to mid morning, becoming W to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 21-25)
High pressure moves off the coast and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley early next week, and our weather starts mild and fair October 21 then transitions to rain showers followed by clearing and cooling during October 22-23 based on current timing. Next disturbance may bring rain shower threat by later October 24 or early October 25 followed by breezy/cooler weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Still feeling that westerly flow should dominate overall but will continue to watch for a digging trough of low pressure trying to kick something more important off in terms of storminess to the south of the region. We will probably see an overall trend to near to below normal temperatures. Still much fine-tuning to do for late month’s weather.

246 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    You don’t appear to be as bullish on the wind with this event.

    Looking forward to this one.

    At the 11PM broadcast, Harvey was saying gusts to 53 for Boston and 63 for the Cape.

    NWS has a high wind advisory up. Interesting that they have the winds
    from the SOUTH. Apparently, they expect the low to pass West of Boston.

    ..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
    THURSDAY…

    * WHAT…South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
    expected.

    * WHERE…Eastern Essex MA, Southeast Middlesex MA, Suffolk MA,
    Eastern Norfolk MA and Eastern Plymouth MA Counties. This
    includes the cities and towns of Gloucester, Cambridge, Boston,
    Quincy, and Plymouth.

    * WHEN…From midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Thursday.

  5. I see rain forecast from models from just under 1 inch to nearly 3 inches.
    We shall see what happens, but I understand completely what TK was saying
    about us possibly being in the middle concerning total rain.

  10. Power up phones, laptops, etc. before going to bed tonight???
    I am going to set my alarm on my phone just in case, although, like most of us, I will probably be awake most of the night following the storm!!!! 🙂

    I wonder if the winds will affect schools in the morning, like the October 29-30, 2017 storm.

    1. Depends on the model.
      12Z HRRR very similar to the winds you posted above, perhaps a tad
      lower over the cape, but the same up here.

    1. I always like the maps!

      sometimes when I’m doing things quickly I’ll click your links instead of going to the sites

      1. Full disclosure. I pick the model hour that shows the highest
        wind for the boston area. If you want to check your area,
        I suggest visiting the following site and click on surface and wind gusts. Not all models have that, but the NAM Nest and HRRR
        certainly do.

        https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

        This is a really good site for valuable model information.

  15. Thanks TK !

    I’m a little concerned about the SE wind gust potential here in Marshfield, further concerned by such a quick drop in pressure and wondering if the models truly have the wind gust potential diagnosed.

          2. Not without damage, downed trees , wires etc . I remember I think it was right before Halloween we had a decent wind & rain storm on a Sunday night & some schools on south shore had delays . I would suspect only a delay or closing if the above said was hazardous in my opinion

            1. That was in 2017, SSK. Middleborough (where I teach) was 90% without power on October 30. No school.

              2. I remember that Monday pembroke got a nice little hit & the surrounding towns as well think it was a 1hr or 2 hr delay

    2. Well, one thing for sure, right or wrong, the models are NOT backing down
      on this storm’s intensity, climatology or no.

  17. Eric has some interesting tweets. Tom your fears are surely real.

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h
    Main headline with the storm tonight is damaging wind gust potential, particularly near the coast. Up to or even a risk of over 60mph. 1am through 7am in particular.

    Also note the strong southwest wind tomorrow, which could also be damaging…especially near the South Coast

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    13h
    Unlike last week, not on the edge of this storm. Right up the gut means rain for all. A general 1-3″, most of it falling overnight.

  18. The start of a fun ride of storms, or might these be the biggest of the season. Say it ain’t so but it looks vigorous, but quick moving that sets up a great weeken!

    1. Wow!! WELCOME BACK OUR FRIEND!!!!

      Very nice to see you stopping by. I figured you would be around once
      we began to get more into Winter mode. 🙂 🙂

    1. Very curious. Eric mentioned the winds on the back side also. May I assume they would also be focused more along the coast than inland?

      2. Well, Cape Cod gusting over 100 mph in that December storm I mentioned above.

        That was the storm with thundersnow that hit the afternoon commute and caused a standstill commute for a while.

  22. These types of systems often do carry more wind on the back side.

    If we had a strong high to the north the winds on the front side would be as or more powerful.

  23. I realize the set-ups are a bit different, but I’m always wary of wind with explosive development because of the December storm many years ago.

    Also, the heavy convective band of thunderstorms repeatedly shown overlapping the core of the 850 mb jet overnight has me concerned that we are going to see a high percentage of the max winds mixed to the ground in areas within 10 to 20 miles of the coastline.

    1. There were several December storms I can think of. I’m guessing at dates but think they are close. Dec 9, 2005. Dec (maybe 13), 2007. Way back to December (again around 11-13?) 1992. For all of those I remember it taking Mac hours longer than normal to get home. I seem to recall your area took a beating for all as well.

      1. I think its the Dec 9, 2005 event. 🙂

        I remember the one from 1992, it rained 2 – 3 inches in Lowell, then turned to wet snow, which piled up to 12 – 15 inches.

        stalled feature offshore, incredible precip amounts.

        1. That was a crazy event. At one point I literally could not see the neighbor’s house across the street. We did have thunder snow with that one.

          Of course there was also the infamous one on Dec 9, 1978 – timed just right for someone’s wedding 😉

  26. I am unhappy to report that my impatiens are still alive and well. Translation: the mosquitoes are as well.

  27. Crazy day down here in Plymouth. We are in lockdown due to an active shooter situation. Thought they were caught but apparently still looking for another suspect.

      1. 4 in custody and looking for one more. His car is parked in the parking lot of the apartment complex where my husband works.

  28. One of the TV mets late last night (think it was NECN) said there could be a small threat of a spin-up tonight. Anyone out there think that?

  29. The HRRR is really impressive, and has been consistent and seems to be capturing current trends pretty well. I would definitely make sure everything is charged that needs to be. I share Tom’s concern that this will be right in the midst of explosive deepening as it passes over SNE, and with the more westward track and the potential for convective elements to become involved, some of those winds up towards 850mb could mix down at least in gusts.

    How high for a highest gust? Maybe an elevated location like Blue Hill, or possibly somewhere on the Cape, has a shot at gusting to 80mph. Those would be much more exception than rule. Most places should peak in the 45-60mph range, though that’ll still cause tree damage/power outages especially with all the leaves. I think the very highest gusts will come on the front end via convective enhancement (and if the convection really delivers, 80mph will be too low for a peak gust). But the more widespread 50-60mph gusts will probably occur with the wrap-around early tomorrow morning.

  31. Really bummed that KBOX radar is down. This was a long planned outage that all NWS radars will have to go through as part of the Service Life Extension Project (SLEP). We’re going to lose an amazing data set tonight though. There’s a lot you can learn from the radar data of an event like this. KOKX radar will be interesting too but I think southern New England is going to be the star of this show, and we’re going to have a big hole there.

    It will certainly be much harder to detect any tornadoes in eastern SNE tonight as well, especially since convection will be low topped. The TDWR (TBOS) can partially compensate, but not for a very large area. The tornado threat does look more interesting this afternoon than it has been, again mainly because of the more westward low track.

    1. That is insane and PISS-POOR planning. There always should be a weather contingency to postpone the maintenance.

      Asinine!!! @*&$*(@R(*@&#*($&(*@#$*(@&#(*#&@#^$&*@^#*&$^@*&#$^*&@#^$*&^@#*&$^*&@^#$*&*@^*#&$^*@&#^$*&@^#*&$^@*&#$^*&@#^*$&@^#*$&^@*&

  32. SREF so far not highlighting any part of SNE in a tornado risk area. SREF has the low coming in around New Haven CT tracking toward Worcester. SPC has parts of SNE in marginal risk including a 2% tornado chance.

  33. Hello all. Was out running errands. Back home at my computer before the wife
    and I start preparing dinner.

    Check out the latest HRRR regarding wind gusts. 57 knots for boston or 65.5 mph.
    Pretty impressive, if it were to verify.

    https://imgur.com/a/Pe3EXKw

  34. Re: tornado risk
    I have been watching the helicity for this thing all along and it is IMPRESSIVE.
    Get a convective element and viola! anything could happen.

    And CRAP, it would be right in the middle of the night, wouldn’t it?????

  42. From NWS service Norton

    As for convective threats, we expect a tremendous amount of
    shear in the lower levels. Most of the high resolution-guidance
    has helicity values in excess of 300 m2/s2. The key ingredient
    which is missing will be convective instability, due to the time
    of day. Will have to see if the strong vertical motion which
    develops is enough to overcome that deficiency.

  43. Conditions are somewhat there for small tornadoes but the full connection of upward motion in the lower levels will likely be missing, so I don’t think we’ll see anything like that. Kind of like having the plug next to the outlet but not IN it. 😉

    And don’t get me wrong, my “downplaying” of this event is not saying it won’t be a significant autumn storm. It will be. I just don’t think we’re about to set any records and I also think the rainfall amounts will still be mostly in the 0.50-1.50 range with a few exceptions.

        1. For sure. Although sometimes with these powerful storms, the dry slot punches in quicker than forecasted. But, yes, that may be an interesting ride.

  46. As precip wraps up here in south-central NJ, it was a fairly uneventful storm here inland. Rain totals in the area are ranging 1-2″, about what was expected. A needed soaking. SNE should see similar totals; any 3-4″ amount should be isolated, though there may be an orographically enhanced 3-5″ band out towards the Berkshires. Winds were a non-factor here inland but gusts to near 50kt/60mph have been reported on the Jersey shore as Tom mentioned, and with explosive deepening well underway that should assure some gusts near to above hurricane force in coastal SNE tonight.

    1. Thank you, WxWatcher. I am not expecting much and would not want any rotation. But a nice power outage would be fun

  47. Thank you, TK.

    It’s been a cold start to `winter’ along the Chinese/North Korean border, as evidenced by the photographs the North Korean News Agency released of Kim Jong Un riding a white horse near the revered Mt. Paektu (summit is 2700 meters above sea level; so around 8850 feet). It would appear that Kim Jong Un was riding just above the tree line (probably around 5000 feet), and also below it (4000 feet), judging from the pictures (one of which looks like a Hallmark Christmas card from the dictator).

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-50064893

    1. I was just about to post that the lowest pressure I could find in that general area was 29.26 inches or 991 mb, down almost 3 mb in the last hour compared to the 7pm obs.

  50. Just started here in JP within the last few minutes. NADA in the rain bucket. 🙂

    Highest wind gust I could find was 38 mph at Lagaurdia in NYC.

  51. The winds, which I mentioned weren’t an issue during the actual rain, have cranked now on the back side. We’re “only” getting gusts up to around 40mph but already numerous downed trees/limbs reported across the region with over 10,000 power outages reported regionally.

    As I mentioned for SNE I expect winds to be a factor both later tonight during the heaviest rain but also more consistently tomorrow. This will probably be the largest regional power outage event in quite some time.

  56. Those power outages numbers are only going to increase. I got my cell phone charged and flashlight ready just in case I lose power.

    1. Nice !

      I couldn’t help but look at Dorian’s landfalling pressure, which was around 910 mb, which is sub 27.00 in. Insane !

  61. Can’t remember if I’ve posted this before, but in case not: This website is fantastic for tracking power outages. You can track outages by state, county, and utility provider. It won’t give you the exact pinpoint location of outages like you’d get on the website of an individual utility, but it’s great for a quick big picture overview.

    https://poweroutage.us/

    1. If a severe thunderstorm overlaps the 850 mb jet, than the winds not too far aloft will be strong enough, should they get mixed to the surface, to produce such a gust. I guess it’s which locations lose the thunderstorm lottery in coastal areas.

  63. 29.17 inches at Laguardia and Teterboro.
    That’s a bit under 988 mb Like 987.7 or so. I didn’t feel like interpolating exactly.

  67. 00z is 8 pm ?

    If so, crunch time for winds in Boston area to marshfield appears to be 1 to 3 am. A little earlier to the southeast, a tiny bit later on the north shore.

  71. Highest wind gust so far in CT at Ledge Light.
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Oof! 65 mph gust at Ledge Light. Just ripping out there.

    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Lowest pressure I see so far is 986mb Teterboro NJ and LGA. Storm is still deepening.

  76. Vicki, I’m here….just had an extremely busy week!

    Wind is roaring here in Coventry CT with heavy rain . We are up to 1.20” of rain and raining at about a quarter inch per hour.

    Barometric pressure on my acurite has been crashing….now down to 29.07”! For point of reference, 29.00” of mercury is about 982mb. Getting down towards Cat 1 hurricane strength range.

  85. No power here in Sturbridge. Since I’m hitting the sack for the night there is no need for the generator as it’s warm enough not to run it for heat. Will wake up in the morning and assess the situation and run it then. School for the kids??? Will see. Night all!

  86. As of 1am…

    2.93” in the rain gauge and still raining though finally lightening up.

    Barometric pressure down to 28.81 in hg. That’s down near 975mb! Granted I am up a bit in elevation but I’ve never seen it this low here.

    Winds have finally died down as we appear to be near the “eye” of the storm now. I presume we will be roaring again by daybreak with the backside winds.

  87. Route 2 eastbound was a slight adventure with a lot of wind gusts and a lot of leaves on the road, so had to keep it slow. With light traffic there isn’t much to “push” the debris off to the side. I-95 north Burlington to Woburn wasn’t bad, but again sheets of rain and gusty wind blowing me around a bit, nothing I haven’t seen numerous times before.

    Once in Woburn I encountered a tree blocking Route 38’s northbound side, but the police were already on the scene and directing any northbound cars around it. Again pretty much nobody on the road anyway.

    Just got word from a local photographer who monitors regional news that a good part of west Woburn to the Burlington line has no power. At Woods Hill which is east of Woburn center, we still have power at this point, no flickering or anything. I think if we get through about 2-3 more hours at my location we’ll be ok, power-wise.

  89. Ryan Hanrahan reporting winds in Greenwich Ct gusting over 60 mph out of the west now on the back side of the storm. NWS has extended the high wind warnings for southern CT due to these higher than expected back side winds.

  92. Pressure down to 28.96” at BDL or 980.7mb. I believe that breaks the all time record low pressure for the month of October!

      1. Tom a lot in Marshfield out with blown transformer Also hearing many downed trees use caution . Will be interesting to see what the schools do

  94. The wind gusts here are rivaling any winter storm I can recall.

    Occasional flashes of light happening outside.

  95. The outage in Woburn is about 700 people, west of me.

    Friend in Sutton was just woken up by thunder that I believe was part of a super-bolt that stretched a big part of an elevated squall line and had a cloud-to-ground extension that struck west of Gazzaville in northwestern RI.

  98. The back edge of the rain is flying and should be to Boston by about 3AM. And it shuts off instantly.

  100. Boston Harbor has a 2.6 ft storm surge right now at high tide. The tide height with the surge is currently 12.1 ft.

    Wave heights at harbor buoy went from 4.9 ft this evening to 12.1 ft now.

    I wonder how the shore roads are faring …….

  102. Well so much for Fairhaven being #1. Truro reported a gust to 103 MPH at 2:03AM. Your new and probably final #1. The worst wind core is now beyond that area.

    1. It’ll be brief, to soon pick up from the west-southwest. Probably more gusts to 50mph. Pretty neat though, low nearly overhead our area.

      1. I love it when low centers come right overhead. It doesn’t actually happen that often here.

  106. Boston harbor storm surge up to 3.25 ft.

    Like the water level is still rising a bit after high tide …. under the very low pressure of the storm.

  107. Good morning everyone. My alarm was set for 6:30AM. GIANT part of the tree fell right outside the window by my head where I sleep. Fun times.

      1. Same. From what I could see in the darkness I didn’t see any roof tiles from the shed or the house. But the ground is super saturated and I didn’t want to stay outside in that wind. The wind has since died down for now and the bugs started making sounds again – they had been mostly silent or overtaken by the wind.

  111. Power remains steady without so much as a flicker here. Rain shut off rapidly a short time ago and wind is settling. The break is arriving about 1 hour ahead of what I expected at my location. Going to rest for a few and will be back up about 6:30AM.

  112. 3.77 rain here. I would think west of here is more

    What wind. And yikes on some of the speeds reported

    Power……is……..still……..on 🙁

  115. Boston harbor surge maxed above 4ft, just about the time Logan gusted to 70mph

    Duxbury police dept twitter : numerous trees and wires down

    Taunton NWS reporting 80 mph wind gust in Duxbury.

      1. I mean yes I knew what was coming & if I left It I knew there would be problems . Tree down across my street like 4 doors down . I wish I was all night to experience it .

  119. Since retiring back in January, I have been driving for Lyft about 15 hours a week in the early hours of the morning. I had a scheduled ride to the airport at 4:50 AM and just got back home. Tree limbs down everywhere; police blocking off streets; flooded streets; and the worst is traffic lights not working in many places including busy and what I would call dangerous intersections.

    Be careful!

  121. GOOD MORNING. Slept through it all. Damn!
    Well climatology be damned! The storm performed pretty much as modeled.
    Logan Pressure as of 5:54 Am which means it was probably lower was: 975.6mb.
    That “should” be an all time (well since records were kept) low October pressure.

  124. Storm total rain here: 2.41 inches
    highest rain rate: 2.76 inches per hour at 2:27 AM

    4.11 inches for the month of October so far.

  126. The wind is still going to be cranking today. I lucked out so far and did not lose power. Some kids here in CT are getting an unexpected day off today due to no power. I would assume up in MA there are schools closed today.

  130. Logan’s current pressure is 28.86 inches or about 277.3 mb. I am reading 976 mb

    I entered the wrong elevation when I set up my equipment.
    Just changed it to the proper reading and now my pressure agrees with Logan.

    I am at 977.7

    Logan is at 28.87 inches or about 977.7 mb

    Now I feel better and time to get ready for work. 🙂

    Have a great day the best you can all.

  131. Good morning! Well this storm certainly didn’t underperform, was lucky that my power outage brief and appeared to be just my area which is not unusual considering the amount of wooded area around me. It looks like I received 2.04” in the rain bucket. I echo what mark said about the pressure,I bottomed out here at28.838” or 976 millibars!!

  132. Jp Dave
    are you happy with your new weather station’s anemometer? Are you able get fairly accurate readings?

  133. We’re now in “part 2” of the wind event. Things are moving along a little ahead of “schedule”. New post is up! Head over…

    I’ll be a little slow today but will respond when I can.

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