Friday Forecast

34 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 18-22)
Passing clouds and a gusty breeze are all that linger from our significant storm today, but we’re transitioning toward a very nice weekend. For sunshine, the pick of the weekend will be Saturday, and for temperatures, if you want milder, Sunday may have the slight edge, but they will really be close with two chilly mornings and somewhat milder afternoons. During this time, a tropical low pressure area from the Gulf of Mexico will be crossing the southeastern US and emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Right now, it looks like all we see from this is some high level cloudiness at times Sunday and Monday, and perhaps some of its moisture getting pulled northward as a cold front approaches New England from the west by Tuesday of next week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost. Lows 35-42 except 40-47 immediate shore and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind light variable
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 23-27)
Rain showers give way to clearing October 23 as a cold front passes. High pressure brings fair weather October 24-25, starting cool then warming up. Next disturbance in a westerly air flow is due by later October 26 with risk of rain showers, and should move along for dry weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
A bit of a blocking pattern may try to develop driving a west-east elongated trough into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Jury is out on how dynamic the pattern is, but overall it doesn’t look too strong, so the trend would probably be cooler but with limited unsettled weather and more dry than wet during this period.

34 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  6. Thank you TK.

    Have you posted your winter outlook yet? I may have missed it. I just saw NOAA’s and didnt want to miss yours.
    Thanks again

    2. NOAA’s “winter forecast” is just media’s paraphrasing of the December January February three month outlook which is just part of a long-range product that they update the third Thursday of every month anyway. The outlook for those three months has pretty much been that way for about 6 months as a part of their long-lead forecasts.

      My winter outlook will be available around November 20th.

  11. I heard NOAA’s Winter outlook on the radio this morning and it called for above normal temps. I guess that pretty much says it all. 🙁

    1. Can still have plenty of snow with above normal temperatures, but in this
      particular case, I tend to agree with you. 🙂
      We shall see. NOT all information is available yet.

    2. Please see my comment above, and keep in mind that just because NOAA says it, doesn’t mean it verifies. 🙂 You also have to remember that the version you hear interpreted by whoever prepared the report may not be exactly correct.

  13. At least in the early to medium range, the contrast between southward moving cold airmasses and mild to warm airmasses will be setting up west of thus, and thus the inside runner track.

    Perhaps a change in the jet stream will bring that temp contrast closer to the east coast in the long range.

  14. I know WxWatcher had a post about an Eric Fisher tweet regarding a meteotsunami and I’d like to add my 2 cents.

    So, I was at Taunton’s weather conference years ago and went to a presentation on meteotsunami’s. short side story, before the presentation, former NHC director Max Mayfield sits 2 seats from me and when ended up talking for 10 minutes. I couldn’t believe I was having a conversation with him.

    Anyhow, as I understood the presentation, something like a squall line with a strong outflow boundary or a strong backdoor cold front traveling over a great distance, gathering and pushing water to the coast quickly were the examples given in the presentation.

    Now, I thought it was cool that Eric brought the term up, but it felt like the 4 ft surge, while quick, wasn’t sudden. The first 3 feet felt to me like it built from a strong east wind over hours of time and the last foot of surge happened as the low went over the ocean and the water literally rose a bit more under suck low pressure.

    Anyhow, that’s my 2 cents. Eric is awesome, I just wanted to present my take on the topic since it came up.

    3. Fascinating and well presented, Tom. Makes sense. Somehow I missed the use of meteotsunami in both WxW and Eric’s comments. I did see tidal surge…..or it is entirely likely that I saw meteotsunami and read tidal surge.

      1. I think it was a tweet yesterday morning, early from Eric.

        Best presentation/case study from that particular weather conference. I was so happy I attended that particular presentation.

        I had never heard of the topic and found it fascinating as well.

      1. I did go for the risk of some in RI & SE MA, but I think 95% of this system stays over water on its initial pass…

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