Sunday Forecast

28 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)
No changes today from yesterday’s outlook. High pressure gives way to the approaching low pressure remains of Nestor today, the center of which will pass southeast of New England early Monday with a risk of a period of rain mainly southeastern areas mainly late tonight and very early Monday. Fair weather returns with a sliver of high pressure over the region between departing Nestor remains and an approaching trough from the west. A surface easterly wind will bring in low level moisture for what likely turns out to be a cloudy Tuesday, but rain showers from the trough and associated surface low pressure area and warm front / cold front combo will hold off until Tuesday night and linger into early Wednesday. After this a drying westerly wind arrives during Wednesday and high pressure builds in for Thursday with fair weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period or two of rain possible favoring RI and southeastern MA. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)
High pressure moves offshore October 25 and a weak cold front approaches later in the day so this day would start chilly and dry followed by a quick warm-up and feature a rain shower threat to end it. Current thinking is this front will push offshore but October 26 may start with cloudiness as a wave of low pressure passes by, but high pressure from Canada should be strong enough to lean away from the unsettled weather risk somewhat. Still need to keep an eye on this being as far away as it is. The drier pattern may carry through the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
Continued medium range model differences and current leaning continues to be for the up and down temperature pattern with a risk of minor precipitation events in an overall dry pattern.

28 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Frost is heavier on the pumpkin than I’ve seen all season. Final test will be to see if it zapped the impatiens

  3. Im sad to report the impatiens still live.

    Tk. This is a heavy frost. What do we need for a killing frost?

    1. 28.2F for a couple hours for most living plants and small insects. I think we may sneak that in before October is over.

      1. We had a low of 28 last night and 27 another. I see that the amount of time at that temp is as key as the temp. Thanks, TK

  6. Precipitation from the remains of Nestor wants to get up here, but it has to battle dry air and a more ENE to E flow at the 250-200 mb level above. 500mb want to bring it up,
    but nope. Boston struggles to get a few hundreths, but will likely see a bit of rain in
    the air and it does not get much farther North. Perhaps the dry air will even eliminate that. DP 40 here.

  7. Thanks TK
    Well a very disappointing end to the season for the Yankees last night losing on a Jose Altuve walk off two run home run. I thought when DJ Lemahieu tied the game with a two run home run in the top of 9th there would be a game seven. The Yankees just could not get the big hit at the right time this series is to me why they lost the series. Starting pitching has to be the priority in the offseason.

    1. The Yankees had a very good season. They have a very bright future, given the young position players on the roster and a core bullpen that is still excellent. As you said, starting pitching will likely be a priority in the off-season.

      They lost to a great team in the Astros. There’s no shame in that.

  8. There window is open for many years for the Yankees to win a World Series title. The core of the team is young. They had major injuries this year to big players and they overcame and won 103 games and got to an ALCS. I was saying at the time with all the injuries if they stayed around the 500 mark until everyone came back I would be happy. I want to see an aggressive attempt to get Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, and Stephan Strasburg if he opts out of his current deal. The Yankees could have had Patrick Corbin last offseason but there were not willing to go the extra year and they had an opportunity to get Gerrit Cole in a trade a couple years ago but there were unwilling to give up bigger prospects.

    1. With non-contributors Chris Sale and David Price (unless losing games is a contribution) for the rest of their careers, the Red Sox certainly won’t be getting in the way towards a Yankees WS title. Oh well.

      1. Thanks for sharing JPD. Very interesting.

        I also wonder if climate change plays a (subtle) role as well perhaps?

    4. I love that we can keep discovering things that have always been present, because of advanced technology. Shows you that science always has some progress to make. 🙂

      1. Been the case a whole lot longer than man has been here. Even mathematics was always there. We just had to discover it.

  11. Wildcat Mountain has a planned opening of November 2nd. I wonder if they will be able to make enough snow by then.

    1. My brothers thought they might just pull it off for a bit. He said when Washington gets snow, it motivates wildcat to get going

  12. The GFS runs from 12z & 18z (I didn’t look at 06z) have come around to the ECMWF ideas for later in the month. A lot of west to east, but Canada is much colder so even though our pattern will feature variable temperatures, our cold shots will get colder. This would happen anyway just from climatology, but the air they will be grabbing will be colder because of the snowcover that has been put down in the northlands of Canada and across the polar region into Siberia.

    If you review the 500 mb loop on both of those GFS runs today from about 200 hours out to the end of the run, I believe you are looking at the pattern we will be dealing with as we enter winter.

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