Monday Forecast

30 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 21-25)
The remains of Nestor exit, dry air replaces that and today turns fairly nice, but an approaching trough and a surface east wind will turn Tuesday into a grey day, even if some areas start with sun, and then that trough will swing through with significant showers Tuesday night, but moving right along so that fair weather returns Wednesday and continues Thursday, thanks to an area of high pressure. By Friday, the next frontal system will approach with the return of clouds, and by Friday night we may be back into some wet weather once again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early rain showers possible southeastern MA. Clouds most dominant morning, sun most dominant afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind E under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with rain showers possible, then mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day or nighttime rain showers possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)
Cautiously optimistic about a dry October 26-27 weekend but will have to keep an area on 1 or 2 waves of low pressure on a front to the south, just in case. In either case, expect below normal temperatures. Brief unsettled weather possible about October 28 otherwise mainly dry and cool into the middle of next week as well.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
Leaning toward a mainly dry pattern with a quick moderating trend then another cool-down.

30 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Thank you, TK.

    We had warm weather after the 2011 October snow also.

    I remember the 1979 weather. Mac and I had just found out our first little one was on the way.

    1. I don’t recall any specific date even though I was in my second year of college. I do know that following winter was pitiful in terms of snowfall.

      1979-80 = 12.7”

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    WxWatcher,
    Was in your neck of the woods yesterday as we had dinner with friends
    at Luciano’s. Wow! was the food ever so excellent. I have been there several times before, but didn’t remember the food being so good. 🙂

    GAME DAY! GO PATS!

    1. I think tonight’s game is going to be very tough for the pats , they usually struggle here , Jets want two in a row with staring QB back & pats down with even more offense injuries.

      1. I agree that it may be a tougher game than some think, however,
        I do believe that the Pats will prevail.

        1. TB has better not be “choosy” in his receivers. He needs to put his “trust” issues aside for now until everyone gets healthy again.

    2. Luciano’s is great! Definitely one of the best restaurants in that area. Glad you enjoyed!

      And go Pats!

      1. 🙂

        PS I once lived in Millis and thus I am quite familiar with
        Wrentham. Used to hit Lake Peal and Archer often.

  8. Good grief – it is the attack of the lady bugs at my house – although, these may be the ones Matt said something about a while ago. I can’t recall if it was to kill them or they smell if you kill them.

  9. Is it just me, or is the event for tomorrow evening looking less and less wet?

    Also, fwiw, the system for Oct. 31, is beginning to look a bit more interesting in
    terms of some snow for at least some of New England.

    2. As SAK stated (and I agree), models are over-forecasting precipitation for that event. They are probably correcting gradually as we get closer to it.

      There should be air cold enough at least nearby for snow late month, but I’m not convinced it’s all the way in here at that time. GFS has been a bit hasty (as usual) in bringing that in. I actually thing odds favor Halloween being rather warm for New England while the middle of the country is in chill mode.

      1. Oh, not surprised by what you were saying.
        As usual, just discussing what I have been observing with
        that one particular model. 🙂

        1. The GFS struggles with progression and how quickly to bring a deeper trough eastward with cold air. It’s certainly possible, but I think we’re more in for glancing blows with the mean trough NOT quite in the Northeast through month’s end. There have been signs of it at times, but those have since pretty much vanished. I’ve not been convinced we just dive into a cold pattern, regardless of how much early snow/cold is north of us. We still need the right set-up to bring it in. I think we struggle getting there. Not to say it will be super warm either, just more “normal” as a result of ups/downs.

  10. I was going to post the 12z GFS for Halloween evening earlier but got tied up. Needless to say it would be very blustery and cold for trick or treating with temps in the 30’s, colder wind chills, and scattered flurries if this were to verify:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019102112&fh=252

    And some accumulating snow across the higher elevations to boot:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019102112&fh=276

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