Wednesday Forecast

38 Comments

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)
Transition day, starting with clouds, fog, showers, and in some cases downpours over eastern MA and NH Seacoast area as the day dawns, but this all moves out during the morning and drier air arrives from the west during the day bringing clearing but fairly mild air to the area. High pressure builds in for a fabulous Thursday, and nice weather will linger into early Friday before a front approaches bringing clouds back and eventually some wet weather for Friday night. This will move out by early Saturday and high pressure will try to build in from the north but will never quite make it, but it should hold close enough and strong enough to keep the next threat of wet weather at bay until later Sunday, a potential set-up we’ve been uncertain about and keeping an eye on for some time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and rain showers, some heavy early morning. Clouds break, patchy fog, lingering showers mid morning. Clearing west to east late morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day rain showers possible. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain possible early, then clearing. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Increasing cloudiness with late-day rain possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
Low pressure bring wet weather to start October 28 before drier weather returns and lasts through the middle of next week, cool at first, then a warming trend through Halloween. The first of November may see the arrival of a strong cold front with a transition from mild to colder accompanied by some unsettled weather, but well into the future confidence is not high at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
Low to borderline moderate confidence for pieces of the Midwest trough to make it into the Northeast with a chilly start and milder finish to this period, along with mostly dry weather to start and end with a wet weather threat mid period (about November 4).

38 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Had 0.33 inch in the bucket this morning, but it was POURING when I left the house, so I assume I will end up with somewhere around 1/2 inch give or take.

  9. Turned out to be an absolute super day! (as forecasted!!!!!)

    A couple of “agos”…

    A year ago today, tornado in Lincoln, RI, Attleboro and Norton; funnel cloud over Raynham; waterspout over the Cape Cod Canal.

    30 years ago (last week), the World Series Earthquake in San Francisco.

    15 years ago tonight, Game 1 of the 2004 World Series at Fenway. Doesn’t seem like 15 years at all! What a ride that was!!!

    1. Wow. Sure doesn’t seem like 15. A good deal of Macs family was here for his cousins sons bar mitzvah. It was wonderful watching with them

  10. TK,

    Could we Categorize a current pattern as a persistent Rossby wave(s)?

    If not the same, very similar? no?

    Thanks

  13. Thanks TK.

    Pats game Sunday looks like it could be a complete washout at this point. Then again, last time people were thinking that it didn’t happen, so I wouldn’t lock it in 4 days out. But the latest guidance isn’t pretty.

    1. Patriots practice had better include wet ball drills. There still should be no excuses for fumbles and loose balls.

      What time of rain arrival Sunday? morning?

      1. Probably late morning or early afternoon. But the models have struggled with this system, so there is still some room for change.

  15. Thanks TK.

    I had 0.63” from the overnight rain event and am up to 5.13” on the month. Well above normal precip on the month again and well above normal on the year with still over two months to go.

    Regarding the Sunday rain event, the NWS updated forecast has rain chances beginning as early as late Saturday with likely POPS for rain after 1am in my area and after 5am in eastern MA. Definitely does not look promising right now for outdoor activities on Sunday.

    1. I have what looks like 5.71 for month and 96.86 for year?? What is your yearly amount mark. My month seems in line but no idea re year

  16. Just got this email from our school superintendent….

    EEE Update
    October 23, 2019
    RE: Risk of Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) Exposure

    Dear Coventry Families,

    We have received updated EEE information from the Eastern Highlands Health District. In part, the email stated that, “both the Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station (CAES), and the Department of Public Health (DPH) are of the opinion the surveillance data suggests that the risk of anyone acquiring EEE infection from a mosquito bite at this point is almost zero.” In addition, they stated they are supporting local decisions to lift dusk-time restrictions in reference to outdoor activities.

    Due to the extensive athletic rescheduling that has already taken place, Coventry will be lifting these restrictions effective on Monday, October 28.

    1. From everything I’m hearing, this risk of contracting EEE at this point is infinitesimal. Mosquitos don’t come out in temps in the 40’s and very few are out in the 50s. Of those few, the percentage that might actually have EEE is negligible. Barring an anomalously warm Halloween night, I think the risk to kids walking around and trick treating after dark is extremely low. Any towns seriously considering canceling Halloween should at least wait until next week for a more accurate temp forecast for the 31st.

      1. Regardless of triple E Halloween should not be postponed and saying that is not saying who cares about triple E it should be up to the parents if they want to send there child out or not . Things are getting crazy on what you can or can’t do I heard today they are considering banning the word Bitch !!! Don’t these people have more important things to handle .

        1. Triple E indeed scares me but I would not stop my kid from going out instead he would be warned & prepared

          1. Thank you, Mark:

            The New Bedford Standard-Time just ran this article.

            https://www.southcoasttoday.com/news/20191023/eee-still-threat-health-officials-say

            The official quoted in the article says there is still a risk, but the mosquito population has been reduced greatly. The state stopped testing mosquitos on October 11.
            Many towns and cities in the area are still in the critical warning risk, including Middleboro where I work.

            Go Nats! Go Celts! Switching between games.

        3. The problem here is that things would not have to be banned if folks were respectful. Bitch is being banned if used as an insult. We can always go back to the other words that have been used in a derogatory manner. Several come to mind.

          As far as EEE…with rare exception, it is a death sentence. And for the few who survive, the majority of those folks never fully recover. I am sorry to hear towns are moving back to after dusk events since there is still a risk

          Captain, I’m interested in your views on kids going out.

          2. I actually heard that the B word will not considered it violates freedom of speech . Speaking of Halloween I need to get candy I’m behind .

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