Monday Forecast

69 Comments

7:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
The low pressure area that brought Sunday’s soaker is offshore, but not that far away, and is helping keep an onshore air flow going, combined with high pressure in eastern Canada, so low level moisture will keep clouds in place along with areas of drizzle and perhaps a few renegade rain showers today and Tuesday. Also, watch for some coastal flooding around high tide times from a combination of easterly fetch and astronomically high tides. As the air flow turns more southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure trough Wednesday, it will be a little milder but still clouds will dominate with a slightly better chance of rain showers. And then changes begin, but that doesn’t mean quick improvement. In fact, things get worse before they get better as a stronger trough and frontal system approach Thursday. Where last year’s Halloween night was pleasantly cool and dry, it looks like this one may end up mild but rather breezy and wet. Finally, a strong cold front passes by during Friday as November arrives, and a day that starts wet and mild will likely end colder and dry.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Isolated rain showers possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 43-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 53-60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
General westerly flow expected with a mostly dry and chilly November 2-3 weekend, though a disturbance passing through somewhere between late November 2 and early November 3 may produce a sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow in a few locations. Moderating temperatures occur later in the period and this transition may bring some cloudiness and light mix to rain later November 5, though timing is highly uncertain this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Best chance of unsettled weather comes at the start of the period before a transition from milder back to cooler weather again, with continued mostly dry weather and moderating temperatures once again late period.

69 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. #300 (Congrats BB)!

    -Offense needs work to say the least. It would never survive a shootout should the defense have a bad game.

    -Placekicking tryouts this week (I hope).

    1. Indeed.

      Speaking of Irish, has anyone seen the 2002 movie, “In America”?
      Wife and I watched it this weekend. EXCELLENT!!!

  6. Keith ~

    I was stopped on a bridge yesterday, listening to Cool 101.9 from the Cape. Suddenly, the stations switched to a talk show in Haitian Creole. When I got home, I used Google to search for stations on that frequency that broadcast in Haitian French. There is a station in Port-au-Prince, Haiti that is on 101.9

    Could that station have skipped that far from Haiti to Taunton?

    1. Wow! I doubt it. AM would be a possibility, especially at night.

      I have trouble understanding Haitian French. I like listening to it, but can only understand a few words.

      1. Replying to Joshua…See my post below it can happen (and has happened) but this is not the time of year. Eskip reception (single skip can go up to 1500 or 1600 miles). I’ve logged 37 states, 7 Canadian provinces, Cuba, Bahamas and Bermuda via eskip and tropo ducting on FM from my location here in Hingham.

    2. Under the correct atmospheric conditions, I suppose anything is possible.

      Did someone hack the station on the cape? another possibility?

      Who knows.

      Kind of mind boggling, isn’t it?

    3. Morning Capt!

      It doesn’t look like there was sporadic Eskip yesterday anywhere. This is also not the time of year for it to happen. Not to say it couldn’t however. Usually Eskip happens from May through late July or early August. There is sometimes another brief season in mid to late December. This would also likely have to be a double skip which doesn’t happen all that often.

      More than likely this is a pirate radio station from somewhere in Eastern MA or Rhode Island. The unlicensed stations have become more numerous over the past 15 years or so and sometimes put out a lot of wattage. The FCC right now is doing very little about it. I hear quite a few up in Hingham MA…most notably on 89.3, 90.1 and 92.1.

  7. Oops…forgot to say, “Thanks, TK!”

    1.60″ in pockets of heavy rain yesterday. Saw a storm drain overflowing on a nearby street at one point.

  8. Other than Pat Mahomes, who may not even play, the only quarterback that will present a major challenge to the Patriots in the regular season is Lamar Jackson. I think the Ravens win next week. The Patriots could have (and should have) selected him in the draft. I was very surprised when they didn’t. [Btw, I am not a fan of Stidham, nor do I think much of Jimmy G]. Lamar reminds me of a young Cam Newton. He’s getting more accurate in his throwing. He has a much higher ceiling than the overrated and poorly coached Dak Prescott. Dallas must get rid of their head coach. Too much talent on that team to be treading water. Sort of like the Browns. Why on earth did they hire Kitchens? It’s clear that he’s not up to the task. No team discipline, no time management skills. And, basically no game plan.

      1. I thought that under the circumstances, the offense did “OK”.
        Although I got pretty damn sick and tired of 2 runs for nothing
        and then 3rd and 6,7,8,9 or 10@*(#*(!&@#(*&!@*(#&*(!@&#

        I think they SHOULD have Thrown much MORE!!!!

        Sony Michele is USELESS imho. (yes I know he had a few decent runs) Of course some of that is on
        the piss-poor offensive line that is frankly OFFENSIVE!
        And yes, I know they are missing personnel that contributes to this issue.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    I can only recall one halloween that was a washout during the time my kids were growing up and until now. The last several have been mild enough for me to sit outside to hand out candy….. without a jacket.

    This coming Halloween has seemed to have a bit of a shadow over it all along. We will see.

    On another note, this is the first truly lovely autumn we have had in Sutton since we moved here But that was only a few years ago. Some trees are still turning. Most seem to be holding onto their foliage. Just lovely!

  10. Answers to AccuWeather Quiz

    The epic snowtober Halloween nor’easter happened …
    A. Last year
    B. In 2011
    C. In 1991
    D. Exactly 100 years ago

    The correct answer is B. Everyone got it.

  11. Yes, Philip, I agree with you that there’s a discrepancy between the offense and defense. But, I’ve actually been very impressed with Brady’s performance this year. His `weapons’ are really limited. He would `kill’ to have Landry and Beckham (and Chubb et al.), for example. Yet, he gets the most value out of players with less talent. On offense, the most desperate need, as you point out, is a kicker. They need someone who can actually kick field goals (I called Patriot Place this morning and have been put on the waiting list for a try out …), and not force the offense to go for it on 4th down rather than kick a field goal. The second most important need on offense is James Develin, but he’s probably not coming back. If Wynn can come back that would be good.

    1. I believe technically speaking AB is still available. I find it interesting that his accusers dropped their lawsuits right after Kraft dumped him so I assume AB has no more legal issues against him.

      I also find curious that Roger Goodall has no problem having AB playing but couldn’t keep TB off the field fast enough for an inflated football.

      1. I have a feeling there was some specific wording in the contract that forced the hand on getting rid of AB. Everything was far too convenient for my liking as far as accusations went. But then everyone knows quite well how I feel about trying and convicting folks in social media settings.

        My mind is a bit of mush today, but regarding your comment, Joshua, that Brady gets more from less talent, while Welker was Brady’s #1, he was #4 on the team (was it broncos) he was traded to.

  12. if it wasnt for the terrible offensive line, the offense would be clicking, this is not brady or the weapons faults its the o-line. We should never have let Trent Brown leave. what should have happened was let go of the proposed starter this year who is so injury prone and did not impress me when he was able to play. I feel everyone owes AB an apology did he act childish yes, but i find it strange that it was just when he joined the patriots this all came out and now since he is no longer a patriot there are crickets.
    We need a kicker.
    The defense needs to be able to tackle the big build running backs. it was exposed yesterday.

    1. I agree: o-line, kicker

      I disagree: Cut the defense some slack, they stopped Cleveland when had to. They are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay ahead of this offense for sure. Not even close.

      I also wouldn’t go so far as to AB being owed an apology. His off-field behavior is still a lot to be desired.

  13. Thanks TK. Looks like a 1.8 ft storm surge with the noon eastern facing coast high tide which is already high astronomically.

  14. Thanks TK.

    1.31″ the final total in Coventry, CT from yesterday and up near 6.4″ on the month and 51″ on the year. Looks like almost a given we will crack 7″ on October.

    Pretty incredible to see several of those 2-4″ rain totals from the south coastal areas. This system overperformed in many areas despite the fact that the storm was hauling pretty good.

  16. So here’s a question: think trick or treaters will be out at all halloween or will we have loads of candy by nights end?

    1. I think they will be out. I’d have preferred for towns to perhaps designated one of the weekend afternoons. However, since they are not, it makes it very difficult for parents to have their kids home while others are arriving at their door.

    2. It depends upon how hard it is raining…

      Kids are pretty resilient to be sure, parents perhaps not so much. 🙂

  17. Happy snow making in Arizona (Arizona Snow Bowl, Flagstaff). Base elevation:
    9,500 feet.

    https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/webcams/

    City of Flagstaff OBS (7,000 ft.)

    Flagstaff Pulliam Airport, AZ
    (KFLG) 35.14433N 111.66637W
    2 Day History

    Fair
    33.0 °F
    Last Updated: Oct 28 2019, 10:57 am MST
    Mon, 28 Oct 2019 10:57:00 -0700
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 33.0 °F (0.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 19.0 °F (-7.2 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 56 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 8.1 gusting to 19.6 MPH (7 gusting to 17 KT)
    Wind Chill: 26 F (-3 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1017.4 mb

  20. Regarding Halloween’s rain threat…

    Of course it will come down to local conditions, etc. But kids will be out. There will just be fewer by some amount. We haven’t had all that many rainy Halloweens around here but the handful I have participated in I’ve noticed maybe a 25 to 30% reduction in the amount of trick-or-treaters.

    I’m not yet clear on who will be raining and who will not be during those hours Thursday. The possibilities range from partly cloudy skies between 2 areas of showers with nothing in the area during that time to a solid overcast with widespread moderate showers. There’s a bit of fine-tuning ahead…

    1. I love it ( not here ) that everyone on Facebook has Halloween a complete washout on Monday morning . It may not even rain at all or not till 10 or it may rain all day .WAY TO EARLY!!!! Rain or shine Halloween will go on here as planned rain , snow or sleet it’s on .

    1. Wind not too strong is good. Keeps mosquitoes away.

      I’m trying to remember the year we drove the kids around in the back of the van and they jumped out. I’m guessing late 1980s

  22. Ryan Hanrahan’s snowfall forecast 8 years ago prior to the October Nor’easter.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1188933032390090757 I ended up getting a foot of heavy wet snow from that and was out of power for four days. This storm created the largest amount of power outages in CT history. The snow started falling just after 1pm where I was and the snow started sticking to the roads not long after the snow fell. I left my mom and stepdad’s and could not get up the hill to get home as I put off replacing my tires figuring it would not snow this much in October. I ended leaving my car in a parking lot and my mom and stepdad came to pick me up and I spent the night over there.

    1. I was just about to post this tweet as well. Over 10″ at my house and tree carnage/impassable roads everywhere. I lost power for a couple days with Irene but was one of the few in our area that had power this time around. Our house was a revolving door of people coming to shower, warm up ,etc. What a memorable storm!

  23. Mark we had some memorable weather events here in SNE 2011. June 1, 2011 with the EF3 Springfield Tornado, Irene, and of course the October 2011 Nor’easter. There has never been a storm like that October Nor’easter with the amount of snow and the time of year it happened. The biggest snow event in October was back in 1987 but that only effect the Northwest Hills of CT.

    1. I experienced that Oct 4 1987 snowstorm first hand as well living in Amsterdam NY at the time. We had over 6″ from that one. I was shocked as a kid when I woke up that morning.

      You are right about 2011 – it was an incredible weather year. In addition to the MA tornado, Irene, and the Oct snowstorm you mentioned, we also started that year with the 6 week snow blitz that dropped 60-70″ of snow in January. I recall that summer also featured an earthquake that affected a large portion of the eastern seaboard including CT, and record breaking heat in early August where Boston and BDL both hit 103F. It was non-stop weather extremes.

      Then it all quieted down big time with the worst, snowless winter I have experienced in my life 🙂

  24. Eric Fisher now calling for 70F and very humid conditions on Halloween night! Far cry from what the GFS was originally advertising…..

    Tweet:

    The 700-mile west adjustment rule seemed to work out well to make the GFS a functional model. Prepare to rinse wash and repeat all winter. Temps will be near 70F Thursday evening for trick-or-treating and very humid.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1188914363656261632?s=20

    2. Operative words here: Prepare to rinse wash and repeat all winter.

      UGH doesn’t say it well enough! How about:

      0(!@&#*&!(*@YE*(!@#$*(!@*($#&!(*@&$(*!@$(*!&@(*$^!(*@$(*@&#$)(~&@#($)*^~(*$&~!@$&(*)$~!*(#$&!@$($(*&$&@)(!@$()&~(*@$)~(*@^%_)(@$!&@*$&~!$)~($)(~$~*@()#**@$*(&@$*(&@(**~$&@&(&$$)()*$(@$&!&@$*)(~!)$*(~!)@$&(~!$&(!*@$&~@_&*$~!@$(*$&~!)$(*~!&($

      My grammerly just exploded.

  27. We saw a lot of that in CT following that October Nor’easter. Driving around I never remember in my life seeing that many trees and wires down following a snowstorm.

    1. It was the same in framingham. But it was the same for the late March 1984 storm…..but you were just born then. The October 2011 storm and the March 1984 storm were identical in the framingham area and I am sure others. The crack of branches and arcing of wires shattering the quiet and lighting up the night

  28. Thanks mark for suggesting reading the blog posts from that day. I will do that later tonight I recall being at Weston nurseries in Hopkinton to see the production of Charlie browns Halloween and worrying that the rain would not change to snow.

    I wish it were back then.

  29. “Prepare to rinse wash and repeat” all winter is a peculiar thing to say: a. in regard to the Halloween weather event (we’re more than 30 days removed from meteorological winter – things can and will likely change); b. with respect to predicting a winter pattern this early. I’m sorry, but I never buy into that. Same goes for summer predictions in April. Long-term predictions are poor at best. It’s fun to predict long-term, but I don’t think that any met can say with any degree of certainty “rinse wash and repeat all winter” in response to an event occurring 7 weeks before December 21st.

    1. I interpreted Eric’s comment more towards the GFS model’s bias and not towards the upcoming weather pattern.

      This same GFS error can take a mild long term outlook and if one retrograde’s the outlook 700 miles westward, would verify as a cold, stormy trof.

      1. I like EF, too. The “all winter” part is still strange. Let’s blame it on Twitter. While I use the medium I don’t like it, because it often obscures more than it illuminates as context and added explanation are not part of Twitter’s vocabulary. I think our president and many others like Twitter, precisely because context and added explanation are not part of Twitter’s lexicon, but I digress.

  30. Raining again in Boston this evening. Gentle rain.

    Looks like wind may be a factor Thursday evening. I fly back from DC. Don’t think it’ll lead to delays. But, I will need a sedative or dramamine if it gets rocky. More wind on the way next week, when I have to fly again. I used to fly without a care in the world. Now, I’m a basket case.

    By the way, the gray skies make for a nice contrast for today’s foliage. Though past peak the city parks are still bursting with color. My favorite colors are autumnal. There’s something soothing and also real about them.

    1. Yes, the wind potential Thursday evening should be watched.

      Already showing up at around hr 84 to 90 on the models.

      Strong low level jet and with us potentially being in a warm sector, easier to mix to the surface than if it was cool.

  31. I’m also pretty sure EF was referring more to the model. However, he could be taking clues from the pattern he sees going into mid November, which is one key in helping shape a winter forecast. If the polar jet is dominant, mean trough sitting in Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and subtropical jet is more absent than present, his comment could indeed refer to how he might think the winter goes. If it’s Twitter, he’d be more prone to poking his neck way out, versus being on the air. My personal opinion is that I don’t have an issue with the statement regardless of what he’s referring to. WBZ will issue their official winter outlook in just under a month. 🙂

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