Wednesday Forecast

81 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
Low level moisture, still present, will be less in the form of a low overcast, fog, and drizzle today, and more in the form of considerable cloudiness, more humid air, and scattered rain showers, which will morph into a strong southerly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday, when more numerous rain showers will occur, but in waves, leaving a distinct possibility that towns that did not postpone trick or treat may be doing so in rain-free but windy and fairly warm conditions. If this is the case, even without rain, people will need to beware of many leaves on the ground, which can be slippery, and keep an eye around older trees for branches that may be vulnerable to stronger wind gusts. A final band of rain showers should come through in the pre-dawn hours of Friday, which will turn out to be an upside down temperature day, starting out quite warm for the first hours of November, then turning much cooler, along with a gusty westerly wind. The weekend looks mainly dry and on the chilly side. A very weak disturbance passing by Saturday night and early Sunday will not combine with offshore energy, so just some cloudiness and no more than a shower of rain or snow would occur, but probably north of the WHW area.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. More humid. Highs 60-67. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely around dawn then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s to the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to N with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
General west to east flow. The only weather system of note should be a frontal system trailing from a low passing to the north between late November 6 and early November 7. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A general west to east flow continues with another disturbance due about November 10. By the end of the period, a broader area of unsettled weather may arrive. Temperatures should show a moderating trend overall.

81 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  6. Overnight tomorrow night 3KM NAM has wind gusts up to 60 mph
    with gusts up to 44 mph during prime Trick or Treating hours.

    Probably over done, but it does indicate that it is going to be pretty windy tomorrow
    night.

    1. I’m getting a kick out of the several posts on the Sutton FB page that say give the kids an umbrella and send them out. I see many instances of Mary Poppins in our future.

      1. All of the town pages around here are filled with debates on what to do about trick or treating. Amazing how much animosity such a silly thing as trick or treating and some rain and wind can produce.

          1. No one cares about the rain anymore, everyone has moved onto being hit by falling limbs. There is a very easy solution…..STAY HOME.

  9. Thanks, TK…It is a beautiful morning here in the Boro.

    Dave, I have been meaning to thank you for sharing the College of DuPage website for the weather. It is a treasure trove of information, most of which I have no idea what I am looking at!!!! 🙂

    I don’t see the European model in the ensemble. Am I missing something?

    By the way, the College of DuPage is in Glen Ellyn, Illinois. Their nickname is the Chaparrals. Go team! 🙂

    1. No one even mentioned that the poor child is from Weymouth
      and Charlie Coyle was on the ice for the ceremonial face off.
      Not coincidentally, Coyle also is from Weymouth. Nice touch to the story.

      1. I think a lot of people know he’s from Weymouth as he has daily high profile guests stop by his window daily .

  14. I think, in the overnight hours, after trick or treating is done, the wind projections may be a bit underdone, given what the models are projecting.

    Its not the kids that are the problem on a windy, showery, dark night.

    Its the dopey drivers that come through the neighborhoods from 6 to 8 pm. Can’t people stay off the road for 2 hours ?????

    Its scary enough, with these cars, on a clear, calm night …. that’s what I’m worried about. The people driving, their visibility will be poor at best.

    1. Can we please keep the power on? We certainly don’t need another school cancelation so early in the season.

      1. I’ll take the power losses so you don’t have to 😉

        And Tom — I have been thinking the same thing.

        1. LOL…all yours Vicki!

          But I do also agree about the visibility and that is truly a concern for the trick or treaters.

  17. No surprise parts of SNE at this time are under a high wind watch or a wind advisory from tomorrow night into the day on Friday.

    1. 18Z NAM has 50 mph gusts in Boston in the 6-8 PM window. Not good.
      Looks to be more robust than the 12Z run. Still coming out.

  19. I don’t want to be a Jawbreaker here, but it makes me Snicker to see all of those Sweet Tarts light up social media about moving Halloween. Granted, the weather will be less than optimal to see the Milky Way, and the wind will Blow-Pop all night, but it’s completely NutRageous for anyone to Go-Ahead Bar Halloween on Thursday. There are Good and Plenty of Musketeers that want to go out in search of that big candy Payday, and who knows, it could be worth 100 Grand. So to all of you Lemon Heads that want to put a Crunch to the evening for the little Runts, put a Bit-O-Honey into your hearts and Take Five to reconsider your decision and let them have the chance to enjoy Whatchamacallit on its rightful day.

    Sincerely,
    Mr. Goodbar

          1. TK mentioned a child who has sensory concerns. He said something that should give us all pause. That little guys mom will make whatever happens special for him. I have always believed God gives children with special needs to special parents.

            I’m truly tired of listening to complaints from parents who truly have no reason not to make any day equally exciting. Is that what you mean when you say go out or stay home

            Enjoy your evening.

          2. Yup. It is indeed time to let it go. Towns made their decisions. Like them or not, they are what they are. In the end, everybody is still going to get the chance to go, be it Oct 31 or Nov 2.

            Back in 1991 coastal communities were happy to finally go out sometime in November. In 2011, similar story for many who had no power for days after a snowstorm.

            While I am not always the biggest fan of making decisions based on forecasts, it’s pointless to carry on about whatever decisions are made. Those put in charge of doing it have done it. If we don’t like the way they conduct things, we have the ability to make changes when the time comes. That’s how it goes.

  20. Thoughts update…

    18z HRRR depicts about what I expect for rainfall.
    I like the HRRR’s representation of the wind over the NAM’s as I think the NAM is probably over-forecasting convection and therefore over-forecasting wind gusts. Nevertheless, rain or no rain aside, it will be a gusty & warm Halloween evening.

    I have stayed away from too much commentary on the decisions to hold trick or treat on Halloween or postpone it. I will say that I think too much of a big deal is being made of it, in terms of people being in a tizzy about whatever decision is made. I get tradition, but I’m not going to scoff at a city or town’s decision to move it. In the end, there are options: Go with the change, go to a town that’s still trick or treating on October 31, or don’t go at all. There is always some inherent risk and danger in anything we do. Postponing it from Thursday to Saturday may limit that risk in some areas. It may be a town with notoriously dangerous roads. Areas vary. I respect whatever decisions are made by each town. In the end, the parents/guardians decide what to do with that.

    When all is said and done, every child that wants to will still get the opportunity to trick or treat. That’s the important thing. In 2027 nobody is going to still be banging their head against the wall and saying “I can’t believe in 2019 we had to take [insert child’s name here] out trick or treating on November 2 and not October 31! We haven’t recovered!” Safety and happy children should be the top two priorities here. Personally, I know a sweet little boy with sensory issues who will be much more comfortable going out in dry weather versus rain (should it be wetter than I expect). It works out well in his case, and I’m very happy about that. 🙂

    So that’s my 2 cents on that issue.

      1. I find it interesting that you used the year “2027” in your statement. I certainly understand your point but is that year in particular of interest to you personally TK, or literally off the top of your head? Just curious is all. 🙂

    2. GREAT comment. It is a curious thing that we have adults arguing over something that to me truly has ONLY one priority – safety…..not the date, not that it has always been done “this” way….just safety.

      I have a grand who has been counting days. He would be disappointed to have two days added to his count. In the end, I know he would fully understand the reasoning. And what an amazing learning experience.

      That grand also has a sibling with sensory concerns. I smiled to hear you mention that. I’ve heard a few others say the same only to be criticized. Funny world we live in.

      1. Nobody should be criticized for that. And of course if the date was not changed and it was raining, the wonderful mother of this child would do her best to make him comfortable. Thankfully she won’t have to worry about that. I’m 99% sure the make-up date (Saturday) will be dry, just a bit chilly.

          1. I think the freeze comes in 3 stages between November 4 and 11. If it works out the way I think, about 40-50% of the region goes to freeze the morning of November 4. Of what remains, about half of that may go on the morning of November 6 (but that’s going to be highly dependent on the position of high pressure) and any surviving skeeters (and vegetation for that matter) are toast by November 10 or 11 when we may have widespread upper teens to middle 20s one of those mornings. Of course I realize that’s a long way off and way out on a limb but we’re going to be on the colder side of average the first 10 or so days of November and I think it will be more than adequate to do the job.

            1. I’ll take it. If it doesn’t pan out at least I have a target date to get back outside late night. Thanks TK

              1. I think if one of those dates fails to help, it’s the middle one. Time will tell and I will update the thoughts as needed.

    1. Probably, but I do caution if any portion of what will probably be a disjointed decaying squall line holds together, some of those gusts could verify in isolated locations. The vast majority of areas will remain under 50 MPH, probably under 45 MPH.

      JPD I haven’t forgotten to email you with some info I had, will do so very soon. Just been running around like a headless chicken while battling a long-term health issue at times.

  22. Just want to let the WHW community know that I posted that in complete jest, satire and to make light of all the local social media posts regarding this issue. I cannot disagree with any town official who postponed Halloween for the safety of all children including my own.

    1. Mr. Goodbar’s satire was definitely taken as a little comedy. It’s fine. 🙂 I can keep such things separate from the actual issue.

  23. TK, re: Friday morning commute 5:00 – 7:00 AM

    Widespread downpours, severe winds etc. or gentle showers?

    I am much more concerned regarding rainfall and a soaking.

    1. 5AM should be about the time any showers exit. There may be an embedded downpour or even thin downpour line in places but if so it will be very short-lived. I think it’s clearing rapidly around dawn.

  24. TK is gonna blow a gasket when he sees this one ;). I can’t say I really blame him… the tropical naming convention is a nuanced issue and there’s a lot of arguments to be made. But to me, it seems like the direction we’ve gone in now isn’t working. We’ve badly over-complicated the matter, something scientists have a truly unique gift for doing.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    2. Looks like Becky is going out for Halloween as the “Invisible Storm”. Anyway…

      I’m going to try to save the gasket for now. We’ll see how that turns out. 😉

        1. Perhaps because it is NOT worthy of being a named storm, so why should the NHC even name the damn thing.
          I wonder IF they are being FORCED to name extra storms?????

          1. I fully believe there are in-house politics involved. But that’s just speculation. All the years I’ve watched this process, I’ve never seen it like this.

        2. Based on everything I know about meteorology, there’s no storm there, not a tropical one anyway. This has been the case a few times this season, along with 5 storms that have been named for just a few hours before dissipating or going extratropical, at least a few of which were not tropical systems either.

  28. It’s raining in DC. I hear periodic cheers from Nationals’ fans.

    What a baseball game and series. And what an incredibly weird run the Nationals are on. Talk about road warriors. Love the player and character of Juan Soto. And when you’re 9-0 and may go 10-0 in the post-season with Strasburg and Scherzer on the mound you know you’ve got two winners. I feel badly for Verlander. He clearly doesn’t have it in the World Series. It’s a long history of futility. A.J. Hinch’s non-move – not putting in Cole before the Kendrick homerun was really bad. We’ll see what happens in the 9th.

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