Thursday Forecast

145 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)
No big changes, as the wettest part of your October 31 is expected to be during the daylight hours as scattered to numerous rain showers move through in an increasing southerly wind, and then we see a diminishment of shower activity by evening as winds continue to increase, so that towns and cities still holding trick or treat will escape heavy soaking rainfall for the most part but will still have to deal with gusty winds, blowing leaves, and possible downed tree branches. Use caution if you will be out and advise caution if you are sending kids out. And this is a good place for a reminder to use extra care if you will be driving. Overnight, as a cold front approaches, one or two lines of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms will move across the region from west to east, and this is when some of the strongest wind gusts will occur, with potential tree damage and resultant localized power outages. When we get to dawn on Friday, the front will be moving offshore and we’ll see it clear out during the morning with sun and passing clouds the remainder of the day, and temperatures will be “upside-down”, starting fairly warm, ending up much cooler. The weekend continues to look dry, but we’ll actually have a fairly close call that many don’t even notice, as energy moving through from west to east almost catches up to an offshore disturbance Saturday night. A phase would have resulted in a period of rain/mix/snow in at least eastern areas, but it looks like this is not going to be the case. So dry weather should continue even if clouds move overhead, and then additional dry weather will round out the weekend and continue Monday as high pressure dominates.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Humid. Highs 63-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers evening. Numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms arriving west to east overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S 15-25 MPH, higher gusts into the 35-45 MPH range evening, gusts 40-50 MPH and locally stronger overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely around dawn then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 early, then falling through the 50s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH early, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)
A west to east flow will dominate with a mean trough position temporarily in the Great Lakes to New England. This is a cooler but mainly dry pattern. Two disturbances will likely pass by, the first sometime late November 5 to early November 6 with nothing more than clouds, the second sometime November 7 with more cloudiness and a risk of showers, likely in the form of rain. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
High pressure should control the weather to start the period with a chill giving way to a moderation in temperature, then a turn to unsettled weather is possible during the second half of the period.

145 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thanks, TK.

    Long-suffering fans of the Senators and now Nationals can rejoice. What a resilient bunch. Unbelievable. I wish it wouldn’t end, that is, the series. I’m going to have some serious baseball withdrawal.

    1. Thank you, TK…

      I agree, Joshua. Most of the time, playoff baseball (and hockey) does not disappoint. Way to go, Nats!

      1. I didn’t watch. I now wish I had. Reading, it makes me think of our first series win after far too many years.

  6. Thanks TK!!
    Mother Nature is giving us a trick for the people venturing out this evening, but a treat for us weather lovers. Happy Halloween!!

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So the 6Z runs showed the following for winds gusts:

    HRRR: 51 knots or 58.7 mph
    3KM NAM: 54 knots or 62.1 mph

    Just a tad breezy. Waiting for the 12Z runs.

    Just think, starting Sunday morning, we get the models ONE HOUR earlier! YEAH!

    HIGH WIND WARNING for Boston South Eastward to the Cape and Islands.
    Wind advisory elsewhere.

    1. Wind should be ramping up as the morning move on and be pretty strong this afternoon, but the strongest of all will be in the wee hours tomorrow AM.

      1. This highest wind gust I see within a 300 mile radius of Boston is currently 26 mph atop Blue Hill. 🙂

  8. One thing I am seeing and TK has been saying all along and that is
    there “may” be a rain free period coinciding with peak trick or treating time, although
    it will be very windy.

      1. Well, that’s because you have been well informed by TK,
        unlike the general public. We are privileged people here.

  9. Thanks TK and looks like the worst of the weather will be after trick or treat time.
    From Eric Fisher
    Another damaging wind event on deck tonight. Peak gusts 40-65mph should bring down trees and cause areas of power outages. Strongest 12a-6a

  12. From Judah Cohen
    October Siberian snow #cover advanced steadily if not dramatically. I don’t know the final monthly snow cover extent due to idiosyncrasies but the snow cover advance index came in at +0.6. This does suggest a negative winter Arctic Oscillation and upcoming #PolarVortex disruption

  13. I don’t have high hopes this winter. If we get 1-2 good Nor’easter’s and have a JPDave HOLY CRAP BATMAN I will be happy this winter.

      1. I will say you will bet at least one HOLY CRAP BATMAN In Mid-January a few days after I leave New England for my second semester. I am planning on going home December 7th and going through the first week or 2 of january. That time frame will probably be snowless and then it will go bonkers when I leave just to piss me off 😛

  14. Thankfully were missing out on the severe weather in SNE with this storm system. I would not be surprised in parts of the Mid Atlantic we see a couple tornadoes based on some of the computer model guidance.

  16. In a series like we just witnessed you get to `know’ baseball players. I think it helps that they don’t wear helmets and masks. I absolutely loved hearing Trey Turner explain to his teammates his base-running the other night, you know, when he was called for interference: He wasn’t mic’d up, but I could hear him say: “Joe Torre’s right there, he’s got his head down, he doesn’t want to look up, but he knows what happened, what am I supposed to do [he then gestured with his finger, showing how he’d have to have taken a circuitous route to the bag to avoid the errant throw].” I also loved seeing how nervous Max Scherzer was last night in the dugout. That was so real, something we all can relate to. He couldn’t sit still. Pacing, rubbing his eyes and face, exhaling. Then, Rendon, ice water in his veins. And how about Soto, what a character at the plate. Fun to watch.

    I don’t believe baseball has a fundamental problem with the game. It has a problem the media has created, and it’s mostly a false narrative in my view, namely, that the game is too slow and long. Well, the average length of a post-season baseball game was shorter than the average length of a football game. Moreover, there’s more actual real action in a baseball game, much more than the typical 11 minutes in a 3 hour and 30 minute football contest. But, the media spins a different story. Sadly, I believe that some of this is driven by commercial interests. Football is made for television commercials. It’s ideal, in fact.

  17. Happy Halloween WWW team . Should be a fun night my neighborhood is the most popular in pembroke for trick or treating I’m expecting at least 100 or more kids . Bummer we can’t put out all of the annamatronic guys must 60 of them but way to expensive to risk with the wind .

  18. Hartford and Tolland Counties in CT been upgraded to a high wind warning. I wonder if other parts of interior SNE will get upgraded to a high wind warning later.

      1. Indeed it will and even before that, the trick or treatsters are
        going to be buffeted pretty well with gusts approaching 50 mph
        during that time.

  23. To me, the HRRR gusts have been consistent all day. The latest (to this untrained eye) run has a 54 knot gust (62 mph) right on top of my home in Taunton at 3 am.

    If I remember correctly, for the last wind storm, the HRRR was pretty accurate with the highest winds along the eastern coast.

    For this storm, the highest gusts seems to be Taunton through Providence into SW Rhode Island and NE Connecticut. We shall see.

    Charge up those devices!

  25. Halloween is still on in Boston for tonight as far as I know.

    JPD, are you going to give out candy again this year? 🙂

    1. Yup, Regular sized bars as treats.

      I am sweating bullets as I just swept down all of the walkways around the house and drained a huge puddle on the side of the street. Don’t need any little
      one drowning tonight.

  26. Just received an extensive robo call from Eversource stating that severe weather
    is expected tonight and that there might be power outages, blah blah blah….

    1. Those forecast variations are typical because of the convective nature of what will be coming through.

  31. Some of the highlights from that discussion on the tornado watch JpDave posted.
    A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible
    This watch goes until midnight

  34. Winds really picked up here in Middleboro in the last 15 minutes with the sun trying to break through!

  35. Captain Fantastic: you mentioned the HRRR’s consistency today, and you’re correct. Meaningless wobbles of a few knots in max gust not withstanding, the HRRR (and basically all of the hi-res guidance such as 3km NAM, RGEM, WRFs) have been extremely consistent with this event. That’s a product of the unusually strong forcing environment that we have today. Hi-res/convection allowing models like the one’s I mentioned tend to be much more consistent, and also more accurate, in strongly forced environments versus in weakly forced ones where they are often almost useless. Forcing strength is the number one biggest factor in their performance. So on a day like today, you can pretty much take the HRRR to the bank in terms of the overall idea. It’s just a matter of exactly how strong those peak winds end up being.

      1. Same! All the models basically have the same idea but the HRRR seems a little more realistic on the winds to me versus some of the higher numbers. Still, a wall of 45-55kt gusts will leave a mark!

  36. Wind picking up here. Not like it is East of here. We are at daughters home in Uxbridge this year. I put out a bowl but it might blow away.

    We usually get 100ish. Daughter does as well. Will be curious to see if there are fewer. We do have a safe neighborhood in that no trees or wires and only two streets so it is a great place to drop kids at one end and meet at the other

  44. Nothing even close to impressive so far within 300 miles of here.

    Highest wind gust I could find was 39 mph atop Blue Hill, indicating that the
    stronger winds are still a fair distance above the surface.

  52. Total as of time I left in Uxbridge was 18. No kids out on our street as of 7.

    Fairly steady drizzle here pretty much throughout

  53. Quite a few kids here. Top wind gust maybe 25 at my location so far but those will be going up. It’s been rain free with the exception of two very brief sprinkles here in Woburn.

    A moderate shower just went through the North Leominster and Fitchburg area.

    once again I will stand in the position of respecting the decisions of each city and town of whether or not to postpone or hold it. I just hope everybody gets the opportunity and everybody gets back safely.

  56. I would guess from comments from JPD and TK the problem here is EEE. I was also out front. We have had a consistent number near 100 for four years. My daughter has been the same in Uxbridge for 14 years. She was down a conservative 70 percent. Looks as if we were about there but even if it is 50, that is huge

      1. That was my thought. Rain was never a concern but EEE is here as well as wind. Just wind is a concern there. So simple deductive reasoning which I’m not usually capable of at 8 pm tells me it is mostly EEE out here keeping kids in and not maybe a bit of wind.

  58. I had 30 kids for trick treating. Quite breezy out and thankfully most of trick or treat time it did not rain. Severe Thunderstorm Watch west of me and will see what happens to that line as it moves this way.

  61. Even though our town postponed Halloween until Saturday, our neighbor five houses down who owns horses, loaded up the neighborhood kids and went through the neighborhood on a covered hay ride wagon pulled by the most beautiful draft horses. Trick or treating the old fashioned way!!

  64. It’s such a beautiful night, sitting out on the screened in porch with the feel of a summer night. The wind is really starting to ramp up here now, and I’m hearing some small branches start to snap in the woods behind me with the strongest gusts.

    1. One of the few times I miss a screened porch. First house without one. Enjoy SC and I do love your trick or treating story.

      I suspect I will open slider and keep screen closed and pretend I’m on a porch thanks for the idea

  66. SC..I owe you one. Just sat in doorway with soft music playing . Drizzle blown in but still just awesome. Wind is like a freight train. Great night

    Thanks for reminding me

  67. Power just went out here in Harvard. Thankfully it was well past trick or treat time. During 6-8 pm just some sprinkles and a stiff breeze.

    JpDave – I hope you understand that the neighbors who give the full size candy bars pretty much are guaranteed legend status by boys 4-10+, right? (I have 3 with me tonight and they were naming names. Full size candy is -per my son – “a goldmine!” You are so awesomely quintessentially New England with your claims of curmudgeonly tendencies as you sweat through clearing your sidewalk and entrance so carefully for little kids. But we have your ticket now / the full size candy bars is a dead giveaway! And please at least 2/3 holy crap Batmans this winter or I won’t make it!

    1. What an absolutely lovely post to read at the start of my day. No one should be surprised that my eyes are a bit misty

    2. You’re too kind.

      In all honesty, the full sized candy bars are my wife’s doing. Not sure
      I’d do that on my own. The other stuff, yes. 🙂

    1. Your best bet is whatever you can find from NWS. Anything detailed and complete you’d probably need NCDC and it’s not free.

  69. Good morning…

    A couple of delays and closings…
    Sacred Heart in Kingston is closed and Bristol-Plymouth Voc has a two-hour delay.
    WBZ-Radio is reporting that Pembroke has many homes without power.

    The front came through here at around 4:45. My home is very tight. It was shaking in the wind with the frontal passage!

    Onto November!!!!

  71. Updating momentarily. Fighting a semi-epic battle with my immune system that is taking about every ounce of energy I have. Zzzz.

  72. Norway maples have lost / are losing their leaves about 10 days earlier this year than any recent year.

    2. We would have been weeks later than normal as all of our leaves were intact until the wind. Although, the vast majority of trees that line the streets in the neighborhood are intact and most have not completely changed.

  73. I may have to repeat this, but my final tally last evening was 115 as I did have
    a few stragglers between 8 and 8:30. We delivered every piece of candy we had, including dipping into the reserve snack size.

    It was a beautiful night for trick or treating in the city.

    re: the big wind overnight
    Honestly, not much to write home about in JP. A few nice gusts here and there, but no big deal.

    The strongest winds I have ever experienced at my house was during the blizzard
    of 78. I have never seen such ferocious winds!

    1. Was windy in pembroke but the storm a few weeks back was definitely worse with damage , power outages etc . Half of pembroke is out as of now .

        1. Yes I said that above since 2am . It was extremely windy Believe me but not hearing much on the damage part of it . Last storm hundreds of trees were down throughout the south shore , businesses closed for days & no power for some for days .

  75. Sutton was anything but peaceful. I can honestly say we have not had winds anywhere as close to last nights since moving here. As is the case with Captain, our house is tight, but it was literally shaking and creaking. Our decorations were all over the neighborhood. The trampoline moved about five feet and deck furniture was all over the back yard.

    At one point Sutton PD posted on FB that they might as well just ask who has power since most of the town was out. But then that is typical for Sutton. I’m very thankful this morning that the weather was exactly as predicted. Well done to TK and to all who nailed the timing! The downed trees and lines were less than an hour from the time the majority of trick of treaters have gone home.

    1. Agreed Vicki and I said the same thing to my wife overnight as we were awoken by it. Strongest winds I have seen in the few years we have been at our current house.

          1. Thanks Scott. This confirms my thoughts about
            it being no big deal last night at my house.

            …SUFFOLK COUNTY…
            LOGAN AP 51 356 AM 11/01 ASOS
            BOSTON 49 500 AM 11/01 CWOP
            WINTHROP 45 305 AM 11/01 CWOP

            1. Last event Logan had a 70 mph peak gust.
              The obs at Blue Hill tells me that there
              wasn’t enough convection to bring
              the higher winds down to sea level.

            2. It pretty much confirms mine that interior was as impacted as the shore – or even more – something not usual. Thank you, Scott. We also have altitude and I would be surprised if 39 was the highest here.

              If only I had a weather station that created charts….oh, wait, I do. It just doesn’t work!

  76. I’m very sorry to hear about the people without power.

    I hope the kids had fun trick-or-treating.

    TK, please take care of yourself.

    November and the start of holiday season is upon is.

    Was able to land last night. Thankfully, at and just above the surface there was a brief semi-lull in the action, so the landing went well. Between 1000 and 3000 feet the plane was rocking around like an unmoored boat in a storm in the high seas. The pilot landed the relatively small aircraft (only 17 rows) with less of a bump than my flight on Wednesday when there was no wind. Go figure. Needless to say, I thanked the pilot upon exiting the plane. He must think I’m crazy. I admit I am a little nuts in this regard.

    1. Good news. Welcome home.

      I have had a few rocky landings coming into McCarran International Airport
      in Las Vegas. There is something about the desert air and surrounding mountains and thermals etc. etc.

      One time the damn plane tilted from side to side and the wing tip
      nearly came into contact with the runway!

    2. Joshua….I would have thanked the pilot also and I guarantee he appreciated it. So glad all went well. I was thinking about not wanting to be in a plane last night when I heard several overhead.

  77. Seems some of my comments are awaiting moderation. TK…..please ignore. I will repost as the error is on my side.

    Just read up – and TK I was thinking there might be something wrong since you had not updated. PLEASE DO NOT WORRY ABOUT AN UPDATE. We are all fine. Please relax

    2. Found it. The username “Vicki” was somehow replaced with just “.” and WP immediately flagged you as a new person. Only 1 character has to be different and it will do that.

      2. Yep – that is what I did – all on my own 😉 Thanks for looking and I apologize for making extra work for you.

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