The Week Ahead (October 3-10 2011)

14 Comments

10:25PM

As I like to do when the weekend upcoming is a holiday weekend, as it is for us in New England, I’ll attempt an 8-day forecast all the way through Columbus Day Weekend.

Some of you may not realize that a Category 4 Hurricane (Ophelia) was racing northward in the western Atlantic this weekend, now weakening and accelerating and will pass near the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, Canada, early Monday as it turns northeastward. Some large ocean swells have been sent toward the US East Coast as this storm was churning up the waters offshore, and some of these will be arriving along the New England Coast Monday with some splash-over likely in prone areas during the pre-dawn and late afternoon high tides.

As for our weather, it will continue to be governed by low pressure spinning around in the Northeast through Tuesday. This low finally gets out of here by Wednesday, leaving us with a shot of cool and dry air along with a gusty breeze.

The end of the week will feature high pressure building eastward out of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. This should provide fantastic October weather starting Thursday and lasting through most of the weekend (through Sunday at least). Can it last through Monday, Columbus Day? Obviously being 8 days away confidence is not that high, but going with hints on guidance and the kind of pattern we’ll be in, I’ll make the early guess that we may be dealing with a back-door cold front which may introduce clouds. Can’t say much more than that now.

So here is the detailed forecast for the Boston Area!

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers. Low 51-56. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers. High 63-68. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Low 52-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Periods of drizzle with isolated showers in the afternoon. High 61-66. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle early then breaking clouds. Low 45-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 37. High 63.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 66.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 69.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 72.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 64.

14 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (October 3-10 2011)”

  1. Thanks TK for the update…I had no idea that Ophelia was that strong a hurricane. Mike Wankum mentioned yesterday that the combo of Ophelia and the upper low that has been pesistently spinning just to our west caused much turbulence on a couple of flights on their way to Logan even though winds on our surface were quite light…not even breezy.

  2. TK, sunny and 74 in Prague; no breeze; no humidity.Todayis the last day of the trip. Back to Boston on Tues. Your forecasts we’re all correct except Prague where we got lucky with all sun! Again thanks for your help — we definitely had the right clothes.

  3. I was quite surprised to see the sideline reporter (Michelle Tafoya) bundled up and wearing gloves at the Jets-Ravens game last night while it was barely jacket weather here in Boston. Makes no sense since the game was in Baltimore no less.

    Of course, if the game were in Buffalo or Green Bay etc., then I could understand even for early October.

  4. She must have lived in Florida or somewhere down south. I know Stephanie Abrams on the weather channel thinks anything below 80 is cold.
    Interesting outlooks I have been reading on the Farmers’ Almanac for the upcoming winter. Click on forum and then weather and its a list of posts some of which I said give outlooks for the winter. As a snowlover I hope what is being predicted will happen but the Farmers’ Almanac is calling for a mild wet and stormy winter with more rain and mix events but in February some potent east coast storms.

  6. What was a fairly sunny afternoon has turned very dark, especially on the south and southeast horizon and the clouds are moving due north and maybe even a bit north-northwest. Peeking at the radar, anticipating rain soon.

  7. Thanks Jimmy for the “Snow Day” link! I have added it to my “favorites” for future use. For now though I believe that SNE should be in the “normal to above” snowfall range rather than the “above to well above” range for the 2011-12 winter season.

    I am just not “feeling it” for similar amounts of snow (80″+) that we received last winter. Perhaps I may change my mind later this month. 🙂

  8. Jimmy,

    That was a good link and surely would be fun if it came true. Here’s hoping.

    When I think back to last year at this point and compare it to this year, I see one huge difference. While both years have had amplified flow, last year’s amplified flow was also featuring blocking in far northeast Canada. Not this year. Northeast Canada and Greenland are already cold. Last year, that area had temps in the 40s and 50s through December……..Things in the upper atmosphere are moving up there. The NAO has now been neutral or positive since mid August and there’s no change forecasted in that over the next 2 weeks…….My thinking is that if this persists, then while cold will visit New England, it will also be in quick retreat as storms approach from the west and southwest of the region. Shots of brief snow to quick coastal rain or ice interior.

  10. So I read that blog, I sure hope it is wrong as I want a quiet winter, sorry guys but storms for me is nothing but a hassle, believe me.

  11. Flash flood warning for a small area just north of Boston and the radar looks very impressive. Quiet down here now, though I could hear rain most of the night. This sure has been one long lasting upper level low. Looking forward to the great upcoming weather with its perfect timing of falling over the end of the week and into the weekend.

  12. Currently in school during a 2 hour delay… The radar shows a strip of 5″ of rainfall around my area. A bit unexpected.

    1. Looks like from the pictures, there must have been some detours in many towns getting around this morning. When I had a break this morning, I noticed that southern NH got into the flash flood warnings as the morning went along. Seeing the impressive rainfall totals on the north shore.

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