Sunday Forecast

82 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)
An even quicker update for your Sunday, as there are no significant changes to the forecast at this point. A nice weekend continues, chilly early November weather, but pleasant during the day, although today will turn out to be a little more breezy compared to yesterday as a gradient sets up between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure pushing toward New England from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This high will control our weather through Monday, another nice day. A trough of low pressure swings through Tuesday when it will be milder but also carry a risk of rain showers. Another area of high pressure takes a similar route to the previous one on Wednesday, another nice late autumn day for southeastern New England. But quick-moving systems mean the next front will be in the area Thursday when more clouds and a risk of rain showers will be back.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33 interior, 33-40 coastal and urban areas. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Cold front comes through early November 8 when rain showers may end as snow showers as colder air arrives. Front should push far enough south to allow a wave of low pressure to pass south enough to keep additional precipitation south of the region but some clouds at least over southern areas for November 8. The November 9-10 weekend will be fair and cold, windy Saturday but more tranquil Sunday. November 11 (Veterans Day) will become breezy but milder, and a cold front passes late-day or evening with a rain shower risk. This front may sit just south of the region and keep clouds in place through November 12 and we may need to watch for a rain threat if a low pressure wave moves along the front.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Unsettled weather risk to start the period then overall drier weather with some up and down temperatures. A little low confidence on how things work out during this period at this time.

82 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Wouldn’t you know it, usually the GFS comes around to the Euro, but in the case
    of this Friday, the Euro has come around to the GFS thinking. Now the CMC
    stands alone. I suppose there is time for it to change, but right now not looking
    like our first snow on Friday. Oops, now the ICON is also on board with a system
    for Friday with at least some snow. 🙂

    Euro = NO
    GFS = NO
    CMC = YES
    ICON = YES

    Interestingly, the above is listed in about the approximate order of model reliability, however, one could argue that CMC and ICON should be swapped.

  2. YIKES, break out the snowblowers, the NAVGEM is also on board! Add that to the
    bottom of the list. HMMM, interesting.
    Does this particular type of set up EXPOSE a glaring weakness in the bottom rung
    of models? Are they bottom-feeding for snow?

      1. I disagree with that. There would be rain along the immediate coast, but even there would be a change to snow with some
        accumulation. But the discussion may be moot anyway.

  3. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry, 2-3 cold shots for the next 2 weeks.

    Present guidance has Friday event “just” missing us. If it’s Barry, it has to be the Euro. 😉

  6. Thanks TK
    Hopefully this is what Bernie Rayno calls a windshield wiper effect and the models will shift back north. I thought yesterday first snow flakes late week.

  7. Thank you, TK

    A second heavy frost. Darned impatiens have not changed but I’d think all but the most hardy mosquitoes are gone. Either way, by the time they typically come out, it is too cold for them to move

  8. I was just reading the Mets comments on twitter. This is Barry’s

    My Fresh 7-Day WBZ Weather Forecast: Warmest Day Will Be Tuesday When Showers Are Likely That Afternoon. After That, It Turns Much Colder With The Coldest Next Saturday. I Haven’t Totally Ruled Out A Friday Storm Yet But Present Indications Suggest A Path Out To Sea

  9. Apparently the town of Sutton has not ruled out mosquitoes. Good for it. I’m not sure why the town doesn’t know we have had at least five nights below 28 but I believe it has to be 2-4 hours depending on whom you ask

    https://imgur.com/a/gvJJlwF

        1. Awesome. Daughter and her girls started watching but are not into it yet. I encouraged them to give it a bit of time.

          1. Yes, give it a bit. I loved that show.

            Funny story, was at a baseball game this Summer
            and wouldn’t you know it, there was a couple from Calgary sitting next to me. We got into a discussion about Heart Land. They thought that it was pretty cool that I was familiar with Calgary and this show which is filmed near that city.

  11. The WordPress time setting was changed at 10:19AM EST. Any comments from this point on reflect EST while anything before this was labeled EDT.

  12. The pattern laid out at the end of the 12z NAM run does not look like a precursor to a storm in SNE to me. It does look like a precursor to a graze or pass to the south scenario. Will keep monitoring for changes. As of this time, the forecast idea above stands as is.

  14. TK – Do you know how WP readjusts to the twice a year correct time changes? Why not at 2AM like our clocks and other devices?

    1. GFS tends to be too far south and east with these and adjust northward with time. I don’t think we’ll see a major adjustment for this system, however, but it’s rather early yet and the parameters that will determine its ultimate outcome are in very scattered locations on the globe at the moment. 🙂

    1. I can’t recall the last time widespread snowfall occurred in SNE in November. It’s been awhile I believe.

      1. Hi Philip…

        I am remembering an 8.0″ snowfall around Veterans Day in 1987.
        I think Thanksgiving was impacted with snow in the 1980s, too. I cannot remember the year.

        Thanks, TK…Hope you’re feeling better and stronger today.

        Go Pats!

  17. WP is too cheap to adjust the time automatically. It’s adjusted by the “Whenever TK goes in and changes the settings” method. 😉

    1. What is interesting about that scenario though, is that it would have a better chance in April than now.

  20. Cap’n F … that 1987 Veterans Day snow event was a COLD one. Fluff snow, about 5 inches in Woburn. Similarly we had another very cold fluffy snow the day before Thanksgiving earlier in the 2000s (the exact year escapes me at the moment). A lot of the high school football games were postponed until Saturday. Some fields were able to have the snow removed for the game. They spent the entire night in Woburn (it had to be an even year) clearing the field with “soft” plows and clearing the stands so fans could attend the Thanksgiving Day football game between Woburn & Winchester. 🙂 They did a great job!

  21. Euro coming out and at 96 hours, the 5oo mb flow was almost exactly like
    that of the CMC at 96 hours. We shall see really soon. 🙂

  23. Thanks TK!
    I definitely remember the thanksgiving snowstorm in 1989, it was my senior year in high school and our thanksgiving day football game was postponed due to 7” of snow that fell here, we ended up playing that Saturday instead. It was a little bit of a bummer having it be your senior year and not be able to enjoy the tradition of a thanksgiving day rivalry. However the win on Saturday which punched our ticket to the super bowl was a good consolation.

        1. Just because the Euro is on board does not make anything a lock, especially this many days in advance. That would be a huge mistake to make as a forecaster.

  26. Today I had the best morning commute in months starting with a faint glimpse of light in the eastern sky right out the door followed by streetlights going off while waiting for my bus then full sunlight at my arrival at work. I will enjoy it while it lasts until we plunge back into morning darkness in another week until around mid-April or so. 🙂

  27. Thanks SC. I did remember we had. I just went back to read. JPD had 5 inches. Retrac had 9. More to the west. I know there have been other small events in November also.

    I’ll have to see if I can find some pics too. Well done SC

  29. Thanks Vicki!
    Yes that is my driveway, although a horse drawn sleigh would be fun, I can tell you that a dad drawn western Flyer wagon has gone up and down that driveway more times than the GFS or NAM have been wrong. Nice pics, to be that age again, no worries in the world.

  30. The overall upper level pattern we’re getting into for the next 10-15 days is basically as good as it gets for cold and snow in the Northeast/mid-Atlantic. Trough after trough coming through the Great Lakes. Frankly, if you’re a snow lover, you’d rather see this two months from now. This time of year, climatology is still not our friend. But I would be surprised if most of SNE escapes the next 2 weeks without an accumulating snow. I tend to think the bigger risk in terms of missing out on snow, at least with this first potential Thursday night-Friday, is that it ends up as a suppressed wave.

  31. Thank you, TK.

    Looks my my business trip to Montreal Thursday and Friday will be clear and cold. Teens at night. Beautiful.

    If you’re a Jets fan you should hope that ownership realizes Adam Gase is way over his head and fire him first thing Monday morning. He’s clueless. He’s managed to make the Jets worse than they were last year with more talent. That’s really hard to do.

    If you’re a Browns fans you should hope that coach Kitchens receives his pink slip Monday as well. He’s worse than clueless, if you can be that. Ownership should provide Kitchens with a lifetime supply of gum as a parting gift, and tell him to chew on it anywhere except as coach of the Cleveland Browns. Goodness gracious he is a dreadful coach.

  32. 18z GFS way south for the late week storm but does have the snow event next week on 11/12 with two additional storm threats on 11/15 and 11/19.

    Potential active pattern setting up indeed….

  34. Harbaugh knows how to coach against the Patriots and make key decisions, like going for it on 4th and 4. Also, they have themselves a real QB in Lamar Jackson. But, their defense is sub-par. This will be the Ravens’ achilles heel this season.

    1. That was a great game by the Ravens. Did anybody expect an undefeated season? I sure didn’t. On to the bye week to regroup!

  35. Time for the week of overreactions, plus an extra week because of the bye! Good wake up call for the Pats, but this loss is not a reason to worry.

  36. No one really has had an answer to the ravens offense. they are extremely unconventional and also I saw some formations that were on the boarder of illegal (they were called on it once)
    There was some bad calls in the game
    1. Patriots defense did not do all bad, They limited the ravens to 17 passes the entire game with just 160 yards passing and his third lowest running yards of 63 yards.
    2. A major issue was Ingram and after watching last weeks game against clevaland, I had little hopes for this game. If the patriots defense was able to stop at least one of these they would have won.
    3. The patriots offense would click better if the darn O-line was better. the Pats should not have let go of Trent Brown, we should have gotten rid of the injury prone junk of a left tackle we have now thats always injured.
    4. I feel that this game needed to be the game that the patriots offense despite it being ranked 2 in points, and 8th in passing its 23rd in running. The years the patriots make it this is more balanced. Last year extremely balanced.
    5. I did see good things though from the offense, I feel just in time for the patriots defense to get some help the patriots offense will be healing and we will be getting alot of players back from injury first week after the bye. Sunu was a great pickup

    1. Sunu was awesome and will get even better as he learns the system.

      To me, the key was the Pats USELESS offensive and OFFENSIVE line AND the D
      didn’t adjust soon enough.

      Too bad Edelman fumbled. The outcome of the game “may” have been different, but probably not.

      The Pats will be BETTER because of this. Would have loved to hear Belichek in the lockeroom after that game. 🙂

  37. Please look at the EURO!!!!

    IF one believes the Euro, then the SNOW TRAIN is about to arrive. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. If one believes the Euro, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Euro is correct. We all know the Euro’s rep on snowfall #’s more than a day or 2 in advance. Nothing different this season either. 😉

  38. SNOW, you say. Well, what about the WARM OCEAN out there?
    Good question. Do the models take that into account? I believe they do.
    The Euro has 2 systems:

    #1. Overnight Thursday into Friday morning – Light Northerly wind inland, NE to N
    along the coast backing to North, so Less snow on immediate coast as there will likely be some rain, but all snow not too far inland.
    #2. Most of the precipitation falls with a North wind backing to NNW. ALL snow, except perhaps a littel bit of rain along the immediate coast at the outset.

    1st system about 1 inch for Boston and up to about 4 inches back from the coast.
    2nd system about 19 inches for most of the area!!!

    Euro snow totals are rather impressive for event # 2. Maps follow:

    https://imgur.com/a/0nCQi48

    HA HA HA

    I think system #1 as depicted seems reasonable, however, let’s see how run-to-run consistent the models are with #2. Way too early on that one.

    BUT, it is way cool seeing this stuff already!!

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