Monday Forecast

146 Comments

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
High pressure hangs on today with fair weather then slides away and allows a trough to swing through for Tuesday, a day that will be a little milder but feature a risk of rain showers. Another bubble of high pressure brings fair and seasonably chilly weather for Wednesday. A quick shot of slightly milder air precedes a cold front which will slide through the region from northwest to southeast during Thursday, exiting slowly as a wave of low pressure tries to form on it. This system will bring a period or two of rain which may end as snow for much of the region, depending on moisture departure and cold air arrival, in the early hours of Friday. With some guidance turning this into a bigger event than I expect, it’s still worth watching, but for now expecting it to be a quick event with further development taking place too far south to impact the region, and Friday just ending up drying, windy, and cold.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Afternoon light rain possible. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, likely changing to snow at least north and west of Boston with some accumulation possible. Lows 28-35. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow likely early, then clearing. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
November 9-10 weekend will be fair but cold Saturday with wind and highs in the 30s, chilly Sunday with less wind and highs in the 40s. Veterans Day looks mainly dry at this time but on the chilly side as a front moves in and brings an increase in cloudiness, and this may set up the possibility of rain and snow in the November 12-13 time frame as low pressure passes south of the region .. something to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick glance ahead shows fair weather and temperature moderation November 14, a system passing by with rain showers around November 15, then another shot of cold air for the November 16-17 weekend and a moderation at the end of the period with generally dry weather.

146 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Nice. The only trade off is that 90% of the PM commute for everybody is now in darkness. 😉

  8. PSA…

    It can snow in the autumn. Snow in the forecast does not automatically mean it’s winter. It’s still autumn and will be for a while. Pass this along to the rest of the population please.

  12. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Down to 30 at my house this morning.

    Here is a re-post from earlier this morning. I completely understand
    the caveat outlined by TK earlier, but what they hey, have a look….

    Jpdave says:
    November 4, 2019 at 6:27 AM
    SNOW, you say. Well, what about the WARM OCEAN out there?
    Good question. Do the models take that into account? I believe they do.
    The Euro has 2 systems:

    #1. Overnight Thursday into Friday morning – Light Northerly wind inland, NE to N
    along the coast backing to North, so Less snow on immediate coast as there will likely be some rain, but all snow not too far inland.
    #2. Most of the precipitation falls with a North wind backing to NNW. ALL snow, except perhaps a littel bit of rain along the immediate coast at the outset.

    1st system about 1 inch for Boston and up to about 4 inches back from the coast.
    2nd system about 19 inches for most of the area!!!

    Euro snow totals are rather impressive for event # 2. Maps follow:

    https://imgur.com/a/0nCQi48

    HA HA HA

    I think system #1 as depicted seems reasonable, however, let’s see how run-to-run consistent the models are with #2. Way too early on that one.

    BUT, it is way cool seeing this stuff already!!

  13. If you can get an interaction between the 2 jets even if it’s not a complete phasing of the two, how do the warmer sst at this time of the year play a role in the strengthening of a system if any? I know it creates p-type issues especially near the coast, but does it have much of effect on rapid cyclogenesis?

    1. Excellent question. I’m sure TK will answer when he gets a chance.

      Seems reasonable to me that it at least can’t hurt.

    2. You still have to factor in what’s going on above, and in this case the ingredients will not be in place for explosive development.

      The SST is very warm.

  14. 12Z NAM coming out now…
    It will take the forecast out to Thursday, 18Z or 1PM.
    Perhaps it will give us enough information to know IF it wants to bring
    precip in here Thursday night into Friday.

  15. This is rather big news (a couple days old, but I kept forgetting to post it) :

    https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/more-ecmwf-products-made-freely-available-wmo-members

    Translation: The ECMWF (the agency itself) has significantly loosened restrictions on the sharing of its model data. There are two main consequences to this. First, it is now permissible to share many more ECMWF model graphics online. While this rule has long been largely ignored by many and is very hard to enforce, in the past you’re really not supposed to have posted “non-WMO essential” maps like snowfall, wind gusts, and many dynamic parameters. It was always technically illegal for those who did not pay for the full license (more on that below). That is no longer the case; you can share ECMWF snow maps without living in fear of the weather police 😉 .

    Second, this is a big moment for subscription weather service sites (i.e. Weatherbell, weathermodels.com, and Accuweather, although Accuweather is much more diversified). I don’t think people are going to pay big money just to see the Euro anymore. Prices for these services can and should come down. That’s especially true since another change described in the article above is a significant reduction in licensing fees (which those companies pay) to access the full suite of ECMWF data, some of which is still not freely available after these changes. Bottom line, in a world where the genie is out of the bottle and you’re never going to stop the spread of model maps on social media, this is a win. It’s the beginning of the end of “pay to play” weather.

    For example, the free site Pivotal Weather appears to have already taken advantage. Full resolution, non-delayed ECMWF maps of numerous surface parameters, QPF, and snow. If the only reason you pay for the Euro is to see the snow maps, then it really doesn’t make any sense to pay for it anymore.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019110400&fh=0&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sfct&m=ecmwf_full

    1. WOW!!!! Thank you WxWatcher. I may just cancel my Euro service for
      exactly the reasons you stated above. Although, on second thought, Pivotal
      does not have the Euro Severe Weather parameters. Hmmm
      I’ll have to think about it.

      Thanks again.

      1. I’m not sure exactly what all is free or discounted now (the article mentions a webinar tomorrow to discuss all the changes) but it would not at all surprise me if more sites begin to take advantage and also add more parameters.

        1. Excellent!

          If I (We) didn’t mention it before, we really really
          appreciate your input to this Blog. You’re a nice
          complimentary piece to TK’s input. And not to mention,
          you take the time to contribute, even though you
          have landed that most important position with NWS.

          THANK YOU!

            1. I third it I have always enjoyed your comments here & have made it a point to let you know . Your style & way of explaining things makes it easier for a non expert like myself to understand

  17. Thank you, TK.

    Mother Nature may bring us more cold and snow in November than it does December this year.

    Biggest two challenges for the Patriots are: complacency (especially in the Bills game late in the season; I expect a very close game); and Dallas. I think the Cowboys win that game. Not because I think much of Dallas (they’re talented but really inconsistent), but due to the match-up problem. Prescott is not Jackson, but he’s similar. He also has a great running back and a very good O-line. Dallas’ defense is excellent when it wants to be.

    Still, the Patriots will be where they want to when all is said and done, sitting at 14-2 or 13-3. Unless the Ravens get in the way in the playoffs – and yes I do think the Ravens can win twice in one year against the Patriots – the Patriots should be able to go to the Superbowl.

    1. PENALTIES KILLED the Pats. I may not remember all, but
      there were 2 I remember.

      #1. They stopped the Ravens on 3rd down and would have gotten the ball
      on a punt. BUT NO!, Neutral Zone infraction. 1st down and Ravens go onto
      to score.
      #2. Ravens were ready to score, but Pats stopped them on 3rd down and they
      would have kicked a field goal. NOPE! Anther penalty. Not sure if it
      was off sides, or hands to the face. Either way, 1st down and Ravens Score
      a TD.

      There’s 11 points. Add in Edelman’s fumble and you have 7 more.
      That’s the game right there.

      1. True. Also thought the Ravens caught a couple of breaks. This is not to say they didn’t deserve to win, but … Jackson could have easily been intercepted twice on one of the Baltimore drives. Twice the ball fell harmlessly on the ground after errant throws. The other break, in my view, was the intentional grounding. That did not look like IG. The ball may have landed far from the receiver downfield, but you could argue the receiver turned right when he ball was in the air and veering left. To me, IG should be blatant – and Tom B is known to sometimes commit blatant IGs – but this was nowhere near blatant.

        Belichick made an uncharacteristic move in electing for a chip shot field goal at the half yard line rather than going for it, just before the half.

        And Newhouse should get his walking papers. His holding call stalled a drive. Brady made a great pass to Dorsett, I believe, to get a 1st down. Called back and penalized 10 yards on an obvious hold by Newhouse.

  18. Good morning. Another thick frost (down to 22) but still not enough hours. I’ve decided my lonely impatien is frozen in its current state because it will not die.

    Some thin clouds today whereas yesterday’s sky was crystal blue….just a perfect sky.

  19. I meant post this yesterday, but I know Sunday was JPDave’s favorite day of the year-

    National Models Come Out an Hour Earlier Day!

  20. Patriots: Just wanted to point out that this is their 2nd opponent IN A ROW, coming off their bye week to play the Patriots.

    The Pats could have had 3 weeks off and may still have lost, nonetheless, I do find that a small factor.

  21. IMHO, The 12Z NAM is on board with precip for Thursday night/Friday. P-type
    to be determined, but it is looking like it wants to happen.

  22. I notice on the EURO that the cold high pressure is centered more in the mid-west and Plains for Thursday/Thursday night, as opposed to north of us.

    To me, that means that ripple of low pressure needs to go by to draw the cold air in. I’m not really sold on much snow for system 1.

    At least on system 2, at hr 216 on the EURO, the Great Lakes high is trying to bridge a bit to our north and the preceding air-mass is much colder and more entrenched prior to this system.

    If storm system 2 tracks as depicted, I’d be much more bullish on expecting snow locally for this event.

    1. You make an excellent point. That is why TK says RAIN and Snow and NOT
      SNOW.
      IF system #1 happens, at least along the coast, there is likely to be
      rain at the outset and then a switch to snow. How soon and how much
      qpf is available will determine accumulations, if any.

  23. I believe that the Patriots have found their placekicker in Nick Foulk. Still TBD if he can make 50+ kicks but at least it appears he can certainly handle chip shots and xp’s. Up until last night those were no guarantees. Glad that is settled before the bye.

    One other note: Offense needs to score TD’s inside the 10 yard line and not struggle so much. Had they scored one near the end of the half, it would have been a brand new game 17-17 with Baltimore having to do some “soul searching” during the halftime festivities.

  25. I dunno what’s up with the GFS, but it appears to be some sort of combination
    of timing and phasing as opposed to the other models.

    Perhaps it will be correct?

  27. Pats could have used Jacob Hollister. He’s been pretty good with Seattle. I was surprised that he was let go by the Patriots. He scored two TDs yesterday, including the game winner. The kid can play.

  28. ok, I’m glad to see the 12z models bring Thursday night/Fri morning’s wave closer to the coast. It makes sense, because the temp contrast is not supportive of a cold system, but a milder one that has to pass by first, in order to deliver the cold air from the midwest.

    Lets see though, if the 2nd system around hr 192 or so still looks cold. I’m guessing it will.

    2. And the fun begins! First we were worried it was too far south, now it’s too far north for impactful snow. The latter seems more possible so also there is no blocking.

  31. general idea this far out ….

    2nd system is the one to watch (in my opinion).

    the trof is carved out, in place and the cold is in place. Temp contrast lies just to our southeast arguing for storm track southeast of New England.

    Boston in play for snow on 2nd system IF system is close enough to the coast.

    1. Agree, however, that ocean temperature is in play. Have to watch
      for wind direction and possible coastal front which could easily introduce
      rain to Boston. Will be fun to track and see. 🙂

      1. For sure.

        With the sensor error at the airport, Jamaica Plain will be under a winter storm warning and the airport, a heat advisory.

  33. Thanks TK.

    The GFS is abominable. Boy did they totally screw that model up. At least at 12z it has somewhat come around to the idea of a system on Friday.

      2. I’m not liking any of them. I’m going for 3.75 inches on November 11………..for anyone reading, I made that up. Sometimes I tend to get caught up in a fantasy world.

  35. Coastal – we are going to be up in Jackson this weekend. I’ll be there at Wildcat if they open. Based on the fact they started making snow this past weekend as well as the latest model runs, it is looking pretty good!

  37. I was really surprised yesterday when I went on the American Weather forum and saw a Pivotal Weather Euro 10:1 snow map posted! Based on what WxWatcher said this AM, it appears this could just be the start of what we are going to be seeing made available to the general public for ECMWF mapping. This was good timing as I was just about to pull the trigger on subscribing to F5 weather or Ryan Maue’s site for the winter as I normally do. Think I will hold off a bit now….

  39. Agree with Tom, the set up next week looks really good, regardless of what happens with system. Perhaps this first one is a NNE special and next week we all get in on the action.

    For that matter, the pattern the next two weeks looks pretty interesting…may be another threat around the 17th.

    Now if we can just keep this going non-stop until next April 🙂

    1. Still a number of outcomes for the 11/12-11/13 system, including OTS, but
      I more fear that it ends up an inside runner. We shall see.
      Fun watching it unfold regardless.

    1. Wow OS – THANK YOU. I am headed out for a quick errand and will look at this more closely when I return. I suspect I may have a few questions.

  41. NAM showing curvature on the 500 mb chart. I would not be surprised IF the NAM
    takes Friday’s system NORTH of us. 🙂

    1. That part is no surprise. It’s the redevelopment that happens far, far south, on the front, after it goes by. The reason I have rain (ending as snow) is that there will be a cold front coming through with a wave forming on it, but the second wave is likely to be too far south. That would be the snow producer for a larger portion of the region if it was more amplified. I believe the ICON, ECMWF, and especially CMC are jokes. In fact, the CMC’s snow forecast is about as outrageous as it gets given the set-up.

        1. We have a shot of rain or snow sometime between late Nov 11 and Nov 13. There are several ways that thing can “happen”. But I think on paper it has a better chance of giving snow to parts of the region than the first threat does.

          1. Ok, I can live with that. Thanks

            As I said previously, it will be fun to watch
            it unfold regardless of what happens.

  42. We can’t really analyze these systems like we’re in winter. It’s still mid to late Autumn. We have to analyze them using the climatology of early to mid November.

    1. Perhaps in Jan with arctic high to our North, we could eek out some snow out of this. BUT, alas, tis November. 🙂

  44. I was never excited about snowing for late week. My thinking all along was seeing first flakes of the season and if these northward trends continue might not see the first flakes of the season.

      1. Could you possibly explain how this contributes to an error.
        Perhaps my brain is fried today, but I am not sure I get this.
        Many thanks

        1. Its warmer aloft there would correlate to too much amplitude and too much deepening of the upstream trough and associated low.

              2. I’m not sure if he is or not, because he didn’t say. But that’s what I got from the meteorology of the set-up, based on that model’s forecast.

  46. Again, Thank you, JPD, for the Sutton-specific information. I see I didn’t make up the snow potential for the 11th after all. It is Mac’s angel day so I figure anything is possible.

      1. I shared a few messages on the Town of Sutton’s FB page. To me they have done an exceptional job addressing and getting the word out with regard to EEE.

        I mentioned woodshill weather. I have always thought WHW would be an awesome resource for towns in making decision specific to the town.

        TK – am I correct that if someone wants to join in the conversation, that the person simply fill out the Name and Email info below?

        1. Not TK, but it would be helpful if you emailed TK
          to vouch for any town member wishing to join. I think.
          TK can say IF I am full of doo-doo. 🙂

        2. Yes. They just go to add a comment and it will prompt a username and email. An accurate email is required, and the username can be anything, as long as it’s not vulgar or offensive in some way. I think people have enough common sense to figure that much out. 😉

          So yes, it’s easy to get on. It just requires 1 approval.

  47. Starting to watch the 18z GFS roll in, and I can tell you a 1025ish high sitting ESE of New England with water temps in the lower 50s at the coast is not a very good initial set-up for getting much snow in SNE, even with cold air heading in right behind that front.

  48. Thanks TK for your answer to the question I posted earlier today, I just got around to reading it now. Makes sense.

  49. TK,
    It looks as if the 18Z GFS is beginning to paint the scenario you described for
    Friday. Most interesting.

  50. November and April are my favorite times to check weather twitter and weather forums because so many people “rip and read” and don’t take nuance into account. And they never learn. It’s like watching a kitten run into a mirror.

  51. From Bernie Rayno
    First periscope of the winter season coming this evening…I will release the time when I know, still at gym. A setup we see every winter is on the way. I do appreciate anybody taking time out of their day to watch…I will try to keep the waffling to a minimum…maybe

  53. @ericfisher
    5h

    Looks like this November will have a decidedly wintry feel in New England. Repeated cold shots and chances for snow over the next couple weeks, starting Friday.

    Def a trend in recent years…warm Sept/Oct then bottom dropping out in Nov

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1191409913957928960?s=20

    Follow up tweet:

    Usually November is a harbinger month for actual winter, but that failed us last year. Total dud season in SNE after the cold November

  54. I wouldn’t call 40.1 inches which goes into the records for inland CT a dud season. Normal snowfall is 40.5 inches. We got two good snowstorms last winter one in November and in early March. We had a lot of icing events last winter.

    1. Yeah, we pulled off an average snow winter in the end in most of CT and interior SNE but if you take out the initial November storm and what we got in March, most of the rest of the winter felt like a dud. We had very little in the core winter months of Dec/Jan/Feb. Just lots of small snow and mix/ice to rain events.

      1. Even I had 39 inches in JP, which is some 6 or so inches below
        average, but better than I expected. The airport came in
        with something like 27 which was a total JOKE!!

  56. Impressive trough over these Eastern US being depicted by the Euro and GFS for the first part of next week. Check out these temps being modeled for next Wed AM….20’s to low 30’s right down to the Florida panhandle with teens in much of SNE. Looks more like mid January….

    GFS:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019110412&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Euro:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2019110412&fh=216&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Couple that with an East coast storm and we are in business. The setup is there…but will need some pieces to come together.

  57. From NWS re: next storm threat:

    However, there is considerably less confidence in the precipitation
    types and storm impacts. While the GFS has consistently showed a
    progressive solution with a clipper-type system suppressing the
    subtropical jet energy well to the south, the ECMWF model has
    regularly highlighted a closed off upper low over Eastern Canada.
    Models are coming into better agreement, however, with today`s 06z
    and 12z GFS runs being less progressive, i.e. showing the short wave
    energy associated with the 500 mb trough digging further south.
    While the GFS does not quite show a closed off upper low, it is at
    least trending in the ECMWF and Canadian models` direction. The
    latest model trends would suggest that the system is unlikely to be
    overly progressive, as earlier GFS runs have indicated. So the two
    key questions now are: 1) The degree of interaction between the
    upper-level trough over Eastern Canada and moisture from the
    subtropical jet and 2) The track of the low pressure center.

    A blend of model guidance indicates an intensifying cyclogenesis,
    which would allow for the upper level trough to tap into a moisture-
    rich subtropical jet energy. Furthermore, the 00z and 12z ECMWF
    Ensemble runs show a clustering of the projected surface lows near
    the 40N/70W benchmark early Fri morning, which is used as an
    indicator if the I-95 corridor could see impactful snowfall.
    However, today`s 12z ECMWF Ensemble guidance shows a majority of its
    members` low pressure centers clustering west of the benchmark. This
    would favor rain along the I-95 corridor, with potential significant
    snowfall to the north and west. As such, there is increasing
    confidence in accumulating snowfall in interior MA/CT, and perhaps
    up to several inches in the higher elevations of the Berkshires and
    Worcester Hills. Moreover, given it is early November and that
    waters off the Boston Harbor and Cape Cod are still in the mid 50s,
    climatology would further argue against accumulating snow, if any at
    all on the I-95 corridor. So expect mostly rain near the I-95
    corridor and the coast. It is not out of the question, however, that
    there could be a changeover to light, non-accumulating snow along
    the I-95 corridor on Fri morning as colder air moves in.

  58. Re: Last November snow
    Just checked my spreadsheet from last year:

    DATE(S) JP Logan Variance
    11/15/18 4.75 0.1 4.65

    Here’s a graph from last year comparing JP with Logan. This is STRIKING!!

    I actually topped 40 inches last year.

    https://imgur.com/a/YYcXZiT

    2. Last season, I had 8.5″ from the November 16 “thump”, a foot from the March 3/4 storm, and 6″ from my private Tolland County upslope snow event on March 23rd. Aside from those three systems, it was a lot small events and mix events. Ended up with 45″ on the season….about average.

  59. If you don’t mind clarifying…..what is the definition of the 95 corridor? East of 95? So many miles east and west of 95? Is the 495 corridor enough west to make it an area of its own?

    1. Rough idea is basically 15 miles either side of I-95.

      There’s wiggle room for these “corridors” but that’s a general idea.

  60. I wouldn’t call last season a total dud either but perhaps Eric was referring to the promise indicated by the November correlation, regarding Boston proper.

    2. I think this is a case of somebody just focusing on a # in a headline, which by now, we are used to seeing written this way because they serve a purpose of getting views. Because technically, 6+ inches is possible if a certain scenario happens, but that headline is not going to give you enough information to allow you to conclude that the 6+ scenario is a long shot. That’s why they should read on. T.E. actually did a decent job on this blog. He had a job to do to please his boss and he worked in some essential reality.

      1. I so agree. I would hope folks can read two paragraphs down

        “ First off, let me just step off the hype train, the snowvember thing was just a joke. . . sort of. Yes, there is potential for some accumulating snowfall later this week. However, it is simply too early in the game to hone in on storm track, rain vs snow lines and snowfall amounts.”

  65. Tomorrow ….. I really wasn’t too focused on until I saw the tv newscasts and their simulated radars.

    Eastern/southeastern areas might get an hour or 2 of heavy rain. Possible rumble of thunder maybe ?????

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