Thursday Forecast

86 Comments

6:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
A cold front will approach southeastern New England today, sending clouds and eventual rain into the region later today into tonight. This front is the leading edge of a cold polar air mass from Canada which will be moving in tonight as the precipitation gets ready to end overnight, and will be quick enough north and west of Boston to flip the rain to at least mix and probably snow before it moves out. There’s an outside change that the rain/snow mix makes it all the way to Boston but no guarantee. Either way, if there is any accumulation at all, it will be minor and fleeting in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The bigger story will be the wind and cold air on Friday which will make it feel more like early winter. Brr! The wind will keep up into Friday night, and any late-season high school football games will be played with wind chills as low as the teens as the air temperature falls from the 30s into the 20s. Saturday will be dry and cold, but the wind will ease up a bit so it will not feel as cold as Friday. A slight change to the weekend forecast is that a small disturbance and warming air aloft will combine to produce some cloudiness for Sunday, though temperature moderation will occur. By Monday, Veterans Day, an approaching cold front looks like it will be a little slower, allowing at least the morning and midday hours to be reasonably comfortable for outdoor Veterans Day ceremonies that are scheduled for many cities and towns.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding up. Late-day light rain possible, favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, mixing with or changing to snow north and west of Boston with some minor accumulation possible favoring higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and briefly mixing with snow into Metro Boston (staying rain further southeast) while tapering off around or shortly after midnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The front that comes through Monday will sit just south of the region and allow a wave of low pressure to move up along it on Tuesday (Nov 12) with rain/mix more likely than snow, but still need to watch as changes are possible. Wednesday (Nov 13) should see clearing, windy, much colder weather behind the departing wave, before high pressure moves in for a cool but more tranquil Thursday (Nov 14). Current timing would take a weak disturbance in from the west for Friday (Nov 15) with milder air and a risk of rain showers, before a chilly high pressure area approaches and clears the region out with a colder wind for Saturday (Nov 16).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Dry, moderating temperatures as high pressure dominates early in the period. Some unsettled weather is possible middle or later portion of the period with milder air more dominant.

86 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    As it stands now, it looks like climatology will win out Tuesday with little if any snow
    as the wave cuts over us or to the West of us. Waah waah waah!

    Are the upper air winds being influenced by that warm ocean and to an extent
    the SE Ridge? Will we plagued by this phenomenon all Winter?

      1. I suspect Boston may mix with a few flakes at the end if the precipitation hangs on just long enough.

  6. Don’t get too excited about that “thing” coming out of the Gulf and off the East Coast late next week on the 06z GFS – something ain’t right on that run.

  8. Thanks TK!

    Needless to say, the setup for next week does not scream “snow” to me. It is extremely similar to the setup for tonight. Split flow with the southern stream MIA. And yes, I would expect to see a lot of that this winter, similar to last winter. I think last winter will be a good analog to this winter, which I think is something TK has mentioned as well. Last winter was not a complete dud for snow, nor was it exceptionally warm, but the overall pattern was warmer and less snowy than normal, and was sparse in terms of “big ticket” snow chances. I think we can expect more of the same this winter. As has become the norm, don’t be surprised if the early part of the winter (December) is especially hostile for snow chances, with a trend towards more variable conditions heading later into the winter.

    1. Thanks for making my day WxWatcher. 🙂 🙂
      Just kidding. You didn’t say anything I already didn’t know or suspected.

      At my age, I just enjoy seeing a new day. 🙂 🙂

      1. 🙂 🙂

        Just remember one or two storms can completely bust that outlook. That’s why I would say my confidence on above normal temperatures for winter overall is quite high, but is lower on what I expect to be snow totals that run about two thirds to three quarters of normal.

        1. Of course, that is a given and I know that well.

          Just don’t look forward to another Winter like
          last year is all.

          Oh well, not much we can do about it, is there?

    2. Two similar winters back to back? That does not sound possible.

      No complaining, North Country did well!

  17. 12z EURO just deflates snow lovers hopes Tuesday of next week. GFS and CMC on board with some snow. I am not sure what the UKMET is showing in terms of snowfall.

  18. Split down the middle two models show snowfall two don’t. We have seen this play out before and know who wins.

  21. I should not be disappointed in no snow as it is only November and it should not be expected. However, it can and does happen, so when a chance gets washed down
    the drain, it elicits disappointment. Human beings are strange creatures, they are.

  22. If it doesn’t snow in November I am not disappointed. December through March is when I want to see the snow. Come April 1st I am ready for spring but if we do get snow in April I am not upset.

  24. Quick summary of upcoming…

    No big deal tonight – and no surprise. It wasn’t expected to be a big deal.

    Friday will feel considerably colder than Saturday, with a wind gusting up to 30 MPH and high temps in the middle 30s for many, putting wind chills to the upper teens and 20s. Saturday’s winds of 5-15 MPH and high temp around 40, while chilly, will feel much better than Friday. That was also expected.

    Sunday and Veterans Day both look very nice, 50-ish Sunday which will feel mild, and maybe just a touch cooler some locations Monday but no big changes.

    Colder air does come in gradually Monday night but is probably delayed or even pushed back a bit by the track of low pressure on Tuesday. This system will be progressive. I think a lot of SNE may deal with rain/mix, versus snow, but the jury’s out for sure. I can remove the unsettled part from Wednesday’s forecast other than possible cold air advection snow showers.

    Wednesday/Thursday cold shot will be the coldest of the season so far and the wind on Wednesday will create a borderline brutal wind chill, by mid November standards.

    You may recall my comment about the early-season snowcover making cold air plentiful, and just having a mechanism to get it down here is what we needed. Well, the mechanism will be there.

    1. Many thanks for the quick update. Much appreciated. GFS coming out now. Curious to see what it does this time around. Probably shoot the system up
      through Manitoba. 🙂

        1. Dave likes snow. I do too. I always looked forward waiting for the first flakes of the season. Reminds me of how excited my brothers and I would get.

          I like watching Dave’s annual snow quest. It reminds me of my childhood.

              1. As much as I hate winter I’m glad for the snow lovers here who can enjoy it . I’m just a warm weather kind of guy .

          2. It’s nothing but a pain in the ass for me . I can make the same money staying warm & doing easier things . The snow will come in time .

  27. So my son’s middle school soccer team has advanced to the finals and the championship game is tomorrow at 4:30 under the lights. It is going to be brutal. I expect temps will be dropping into the 20’s by that point with wind chills in the teens.

    So much for leaving early for NH…..probably wont get up there till midnight now. Looks like Wildcat hasn’t committed to opening this weekend yet but Sunday River has announced that Saturday will be their opening day. One way or the other I am finding snow this weekend!

    4. Good luck to the team! I promised my boys I would take them to the high school football game and am already planning the layers I will need. 🙂

      1. I will be at Woburn High watching a non playoff football game Friday evening. It’ll be cold. That’s what they make winter clothes for. 🙂

        1. Totally agree. And there is nothing better than the ride home in the nice warm car when the fingers and toes thaw out.

  29. In Montreal. It’s crisp. I’d say about 29F. There’s a little snow on the parked cars, and some snow on the leaves and grass.

    The plane (a small regional jet; Bombardier) shook pretty violently and dropped about 2 or 3000 feet in altitude in a few seconds as we started the descent. Very disconcerting. My only explanation was that we were in the front, if you will (my guess is we were flying near the Canadian border at around 5pm). Light winds at the surface so that part went well.

  30. Thank you everyone! Their opponent is Mansfield who beat them 2-1 in a tight game in the regular season. Their only loss of the season. Should be a good game!

    Down to 37 here in Coventry and still raining lightly. Looks like the back edge of precip is going to beat out the cold…

      1. Thank you. Stay warm up there! And maybe rent a car and drive back past Jay. Might be a little less stressful!

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