Friday Forecast

61 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Our weather pattern is one that leaves New England vulnerable to shots of cold polar air from Canada, and one such shot is arriving now. Today will feel more like late December or early January due to cold air and a gusty wind, but other than the remote risk of a brief rain or snow shower from ocean moisture over Cape Cod and the remote risk of an orographically-induced snow flurry over the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA during the day, it will be dry. The cold and wind will continue into tonight, making it rather uncomfortable for high school football games. If you will be at one of these, dress for mid winter conditions. The weekend, a 3-day for many as Monday is Veterans Day, will be generally nice, but starting out rather cold on Saturday. However less wind will make it more tolerable than today will be. By Sunday, some cloudiness may be around at times as a disturbance moves through, but it will be slightly milder. It looks like an approaching cold front will be sluggish getting through the region on Veterans Day Monday, and the front being starved for moisture initially means just some cloudiness is expected but with temperatures on the milder side. Just as the cold front is coming through later Monday and Monday evening it will likely be halted and temporarily pushed back a bit north as the progressive nature of the pattern is going to allow low pressure to develop sooner and move more quickly along the boundary, moving north of the region during the first half of Tuesday. This set-up will be similar to what we just went through and we should see a band of rain or rain showers which may end as snow showers or a period of snow especially north and west before the front pulls through and much colder air starts its arrival later Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill middle to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible mainly midday and afternoon, may end as snow or snow showers north and west late in the day. Highs 43-50, but a sharp drop late-day or night. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-25 MPH late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Coldest air of the season so far along with wind and dry weather with only a slight risk of an isolated snow shower for November 13. Continued cold but less wind November 14 as high pressure moves in. Disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15. High pressure returns from Canada with another dry and chilly air mass for November 16-17 but not as cold as the previous shot.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
A little tricky here as medium range guidance says “hey, watch for a coastal storm” but I’ve seen this indicated before in this pattern and it doesn’t really come to fruition, so I have my doubts for now and will lean toward southern energy staying south and northern energy staying mostly north and just sending fronts through with overall dry weather, brief precipitation (mainly rain shower) threats with overall moderating temperatures, not too far from or slightly above normal. This is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

61 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Winter feel today, but there is only one real Winter feel and that is SNOW in the air.
    So see ya later and good luck with that one. 🙂
    Could this be the overall pattern for the whole Winter????? If so, YUCK!

  7. Thanks TK!

    Chilly this morning. In terms of storm chances, and why we seem unable to generate one in this wintry pattern, one underrated factor to keep an eye on is the MJO. If you recall, it was a key influence behind the lack of big storminess last year. You really want to see this towards phases 8 and 1 for larger storm events on the East Coast, particularly in terms of getting southern stream energy and moisture involved. We’re 180 degrees off right now. That may change late this month, but by then, will we have the cold? Always a balancing act especially in these early stages of the cool season.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

    1. Thank you WxWatcher.
      Always something, but it is early. BUT, Is this a precursor to the pattern
      for the entire Winter?

      1. Thanks WxW. I was wondering why in spite of the cold shots, we still get only rain events. I much prefer snow in December anyway with so many leaves still around in November. It’s just too bad that the same snowless pattern is going to continue all winter long. Oh well. Maybe next winter…

  9. Heavy snow up here in Portsmouth NH right now. Ground coated and blowing around. It’s getting brighter to the NW now so lasting maybe 5 minutes. Winds picking up on the backside of it. Pretty awesome!

  10. Thank you TK, and WxWatcher!!
    Mark best of luck tonight in both a win for your son, and in staying warm!

  11. Also of note on that satellite loop, you can clearly see who has the snow cover from that system, and it’s not here! 😉

  12. Snowing heavy again and winds blowing along with it. This time grappul mixed in. Sorry if misspelled! Reminds of an arctic blast in January type day.

  14. Thanks TK, and WxWatcher too (and JMA) and the others who comment.

    It’s fun to see the comments light up with storm possibilities. What a great resource. Have learned a lot here!

  15. I think I understand the frustration some feel with November and missing out on snow opportunities.

    I go through this in May watching medium and long range projections of summer warmth end up as 53F and foggy with a NE wind.

    For our location, it just seems that consistent summer and winter start around or a week after the respective solstices.

    So, hang in there winter enthusiasts. Its so early. Another 5 or 6 weeks until winter truly arrives.

    1. Tell me about it….it’s November 8. Winter doesn’t even officially start for 6 more weeks!

      We’ll get our share of winter weather this year, I’m not worried about that.

  18. I’d like to report that I saw a snowflake in Sutton. I was talking on phone to Macs brother and you’d have thought by my reaction that we had a blizzard.

    There is something so magical about that first flake

  20. Drove through some light snow showers between Reading and Wakefield and Stoneham and Woburn during the last hour.

  21. Periodic heavy snow squalls in Montreal. The sun is out now, but the squall that hit around 2:15pm was impressive, with accumulating snow, even on the roads. Temp is at or below freezing.

  22. I do not agree with ECMWF’s solution for the weekend of Nov 16-17. It’s too amplified with that southern system and has it way too far north.

    1. ECMWF clearly displaying its typical biases and was consistent last year as well with these biases in its mid-long range
      1) Over Amplification
      2) Too Much Southern Stream Emphasis
      3) Split Flow Denial
      4) Systems Move Way Too Slow
      5) Backside Fantasy Precip
      5) Too Cold in its high / lows

      See yesteday’s system and depth and duration of current cold as modeled last Saturday.

          2. Just keeping it real. 😉 We may actually have some legit chances of snow when winter arrives. 🙂

            IF the ECMWF solution was correct, that would be a rain event anyway.

  23. Waiting impatiently for the score of the Middle School Soccer championship, Mark.
    It’s not on ESPN. I checked. 🙂

    Congrats to your son and family, Mark! Cold, but lots of fun, I am sure.

    Middleboro High’s varsity football team is at Falmouth tonight. I love my Sachems, but I am not going to the Cape. Brrrrr. I will be following the game via the Twitter feed in front of my fireplace. 🙂

    No Gillette Stadium this year for Middleboro at 2-6. We’re home next Friday night versus Sandwich and the Thanksgiving morning game is home this year vs. rival Carver.

  24. Completely frozen solid but they did it! 4-0 champs! This is the first time the Coventry middle school soccer team has won it. Great game all around.

  26. 28 here in JP (DP 12) and it’s only a little after 8 PM. Fairly chilly for 11/8 if you ask me.
    I think We could bottom out under 20 here, despite what the Stupid airport does. 🙂

    32 currently at the Jokeport.

    1. If I remember correctly, Eric mentioned that Logan hasn’t been below 30 this early since 2004. Tonight could be the night!

  27. Got down to 22 here in JP. I really thought it would go under 20. nope. DP still 13.
    28 at the jokeport.

    1. It was definitely not expected to get to the teens anywhere in Boston. In fact your 22 is already lower than the low number on my forecast range.

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