Saturday Forecast

40 Comments

8:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A quick drop off in wind overnight allowed many areas to fall below my forecast range for low temperatures. That chill will hang around today, but will be more tolerable today than yesterday with much less wind. Some warming aloft will produce more in the way of cloudiness for Sunday, but it will still be a nice day overall. This will continue well into Monday, Veterans Day, making conditions favorable for outdoor ceremonies scheduled in many cities and towns. Things change Monday night, however, as a front settles into the region and moisture, enhanced by a developing low pressure wave, arrives. But like last time, we’ll have mild enough air around for mainly a rain event developing Tuesday, and also like last time, we’ll see a race between the end of the precipitation and the arrival of a much colder air mass, so some areas will likely flip to snow before everything exits Tuesday evening. Once again the greatest risk for any accumulation of snow will be north and west of Boston. If snowfall numbers need to be discussed, they will appear in Monday’s blog post. One thing is for sure, the next surge of cold air arriving Tuesday night through Wednesday will be the coldest of the season so far.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH, becoming N 5-15 MPH later.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Quick transition out of the cold/wind to the chilly/tranquil with fair weather November 14. A disturbance arrives with milder air and a rain shower risk November 15 then high pressure from Canada brings a dry air mass for the November 16-17 weekend, starting out chilly then moderating, and should hold unsettled weather off well to the south through November 18 as well.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Will continue to keep an eye for potential unsettled weather originating from southwest of New England but still leaning toward dominant high pressure keeping it on the drier side for a good portion of this period. Temperatures for this period should average near to above normal.

40 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Definitely colder than projected since the wind dropped to near calm or even completely calm when I did not think it would do that. The lowest temp I saw at an official site was Orange with a low of 15. General range otherwise was 17-25.

    1. Low was 11 in south Sutton and I am picky enough to know it is accurate when sun isn’t hitting it.

      It was 21 at 10:00 pm and 17 at 2:30 with a low of 11 at some point and still in 20s at 8

      I am proud to announce the impatien is finally dead and I am confident that EEE carrying mosquitoes have met the same.

  3. Snow covering our neighborhood at Attitash. I can see all are full tilt with snow making. Wildcat finally making snow at the base and the same at Bear Peak.

  6. The NAM and The GFS have been trending a little more S&E with the Monday night/Tuesday system and this Morning’s NAM appears to depict a 2nd wave on the front introducing snow to Boston.

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019110912/078/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019110912/084/ref1km_ptype.conus.png

    Here is Kuchera snow (not complete as of hour 84)

    https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019110912/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    2. NWS hints at this as well…

      Given the main wave of low pressure will
      track over our region, appears the bulk of the ice/snow
      accumulations will be northwest of our region. However, there
      still may be enough frontogenesis to result in some snow/ice and
      possibly minor accumulations before the precipitation ends. The
      best chance for any minor accums would be across the interior.
      Also, will have to watch for a secondary wave developing along
      the front as it sags south. The Euro and some of the EPS
      ensembles hint at this potential, which would bring the
      potential for some minor ice/snow accums across eastern MA/RI

  11. Thanks TK.

    Beautiful sunny and crisp morning here in Jackson. There is a light dusting of snow on the ground. Heading up to Sunday River shortly for opening day. They’ve got three trails open, including a top to bottom run. Was hoping Wildcat would have made it as we are 5 min from there but it looks like they will need a few more days. The 6-10” forecast up here for Mon night and Tuesday should do it.

    Here is the view of snow capped Mt Washington this AM from the hill here in Jackson:

    https://i.postimg.cc/gjrHyzSV/B76-DDB81-CBE2-4-B6-A-984-E-1-E980-A87-AE7-C.jpg

  12. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/f_ind.html

    Middle, right side …/ it’s not the closest satellite shot of a storm.

    Hurricane making landfall around Bangladesh. I read somewhere this morning that 500,000 people had evacuated. I hope that’s true, because those coastal areas in that region probably have massive storm surge, where many people literally already live at the water’s edge.

  13. Thanks, TK…
    18.5 was the low here earlier this morning. Up to 34 now.

    Enjoy the weekend, a three-day one for most, I suppose.

    Saluting our veterans, active military and first responders!!!
    Thanks for your service!!!!!

  15. 12z Euro aint’t buying the 2nd wave scenario. just a touch of post frontal snow with little accumulation, perhaps a dusting/ sugar coating at best.

  18. I believe the NAM is beginning to correct on what should be a solution similar to Thursday’s event.

    ECMWF this time ’round has a decent idea. You can tell it’s a much better run than yesterday’s since it got rid of that southern stream over amplified silliness.

    As we head through a pattern very similar to what we just went through into the middle of the week a bit fat high pressure area will come in for next weekend and sit for a bit. Sunday November 17 will be a great day for finalizing lawn / yard cleanup if you have that, or perhaps putting out cords and lights for holiday displays. With Thanksgiving as late as possible this year, getting a jump before it will be essential for some people. I hope to have all the lights up then. They don’t get turned on until December 1 normally, though if I finish in time I’ll go on November 30. 😉

    1. I will let kids know. I think they are putting lights on the taller (15 or so ft) trees tomorrow. But the 17th might be a great day to get the manger and deer, etc out. Thanks

    2. Joe has been doing it all day here Tk placing air blowns & lights around . Saturday & Sunday looking good

  21. 0Z NAM coming in at least 50 mile N&W of the 18Z run. Once again TK has nailed it.
    🙂 🙂

    Good bye NAM. Go join your 2nd cousin, EURO.

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