Sunday Forecast

77 Comments

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
A little change has taken place during the night. After an evening with a mainly clear to partly cloudy sky with just areas of mid level clouds when the temperature was allowed to drop off rather quickly with light wind, we’ve seen a southerly breeze and more cloudiness arrive overnight, capping the temperature drop and evening causing it to rise in some locations. This is a result of warmer air arriving both at the surface and aloft, and while there will be somewhat less sunshine today than there was yesterday, it will be noticeably milder. This more pleasant November feel will also hold on for Veterans Day Monday, not bad at all for outdoor ceremonies and parades, even if sunshine is not plentiful. The additional cloudiness will be the signal of a cold front pressing toward the region from the northwest. Similar to the system of last Thursday, a wave of low pressure will form on this boundary and will cross close to the region Tuesday, a day that turns wet and then ends with a mix or flip to snow in some areas, especially north and west of Boston, as much colder air arrives upon the departure of the low pressure wave and passage of the front. Not looking for any significant snowfall, but as mentioned previously, there will be the threat of some wet ground freezing up with areas of ice. A quick increase in wind and drop off in dew point will help to evaporate / sublimate any water / ice, but still be aware that there may be slippery spots later Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Wednesday itself will be the coldest day of the season so far, along with wind, making it feel more like January. Expect dry weather other than a risk of a few passing light snow showers. High pressure moves in Thursday, a day that will still be cold but much more tranquil.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow late-day central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 40-47 morning, falling slowly afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 10 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Passing snow showers possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A weakening disturbance along with a warming air mass will bring lots of clouds and a slight risk of scattered light rain on November 15. High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected. At this time not thinking much moisture will be available from the south so will have to watch for systems coming along in the zonal flow, and one such should come by around November 21 with a rain shower risk, with otherwise mainly dry weather dominating for this period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

77 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The Euro appears to have been correct the earliest on this next event.

    Enjoy the rest of Autumn as we march towards Winter.

    1. If it’s anything like last winter, “March” may be our only opportunity for a good, decent snowfall. I believe that was our only good “all snow” event. All others changed to rain eventually.

          1. Even if it knew how to do that it’s not going to do it before it begins.

            Our winter weather will depend on the weather pattern we have during the winter.

            The current weather pattern only holds clues and is not a 100% guaranteed forecasting tool.

  5. Thanks TK. I was watching the quick drop off of temp and then the stall at 18. It squeezed out two more degrees and then reversed just as you of course said.

  6. Thanks TK
    Looks like I will see my first snow flakes of the season on Tuesday. I missed out on Thursday night with the flakes falling north of me.

  7. AccuWeather Quiz.

    What is the latest it has reached over 70 degrees in Boston?

    A. November 10th
    B. November 15th
    C. December 1st
    D. December 29th

    Answer later today.

          2. That’s why I went with D. Although I can guarantee 60s in dec, my memory isn’t good enough to recall 70. Those are things I remember only if some other event coincides

      2. I do remember back in 1998 that we hit the mid 70s early in December. I remember sitting out in the plaza at 133 Federal Street all in our shirtsleeves.

  8. Down to 25 here before the stop and the slow rise.

    Currently 39.

    btw, Logan’s high was 41 yesterday. Baloney!

    Our high here in JP was 38. I believe that Logan’s true high was 39.

    1. JimmyJames. I’m sending warm hugs to you. I seem to recall this is the fourth anniversary of your uncles angel day.

  10. Thanks, TK…

    I will go with C for the quiz. I remember having Christmas dessert on my mom’s deck in shorts and polo a couple years ago, but I don’t think it was 70.

    Normally, I can’t stand Patriots’ bye weeks, but, after the performance in Baltimore last week, I think we need the time off.

    The Celtics’ Gordon Hayward broke his left hand last night and may need surgery tomorrow.

    1. He seems to be injury prone at beginnings of seasons. Much like a couple years ago. Too bad. Hopefully another player can step up for the remainder of the season.

  11. Off the top of my head, I believe the “earliest” 70 degrees was New Year’s Day 1876.

    I suspect with climate change that long time record temp will be broken if not smashed one day soon. I am somewhat surprised it hasn’t been at least challenged by now.

  12. Thanks, TK.

    It’s November 10th. Premature for us to write off winter. November is hardly ever a snowy month around here in SNE [different story in NNE, and we see evidence of that with recent heavy accumulating snow squalls]. By the way, November in SNE isn’t as cold as it’s been in recent days or by the middle of this week. In fact, I can’t recall the temperature dipping below 25F in the first two weeks of November ever in my lifetime in the city of Boston.

    In closing, I remember writing off winter in November and December of 2014 only to be really, really wrong once the middle of January rolled around.

    2. What’s funny is this seems like an annual thing across the internet.

      for fun I visited some Facebook weather pages and they have all basically exclaimed how this winter sucks so far. Ummmm…

          1. I always put November down as my third least favorite month with February and January taking the top spots respectively lol

  13. I feel terribly for Hayward. He worked very hard to come back from a gruesome injury, was finally playing well, and then he breaks his hand.

    On the Patriots, the media overreacts to their losses. This is probably because they lose so infrequently. It’s tiresome, though, to see the overreaction again and again. You even read things like the loss against the Ravens was the worst since the Pats lost to the Chiefs 5 years ago. Well, no, it’s not. Last year’s loss to the Titans was worse, as was the loss to the Lions. These things do happen. And they’re meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I leave you with an embarrassing (well, dumb may be a better word) article written in the wake of the Pats’ loss to the Chiefs 5 years ago: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2215366-embarrassing-mnf-blowout-loss-to-chiefs-sounds-death-knell-for-patriots-dynasty

      1. In 1975 the Patriots started at 7-0. Their final record was 7-7.

        Just throwing it out there for amusement only. 🙂

          1. It wouldn’t surprise me if either happens someday. Neither occurrence of course would get a team into the playoffs and the former for team pride only.

  14. Hi Vicki…. Today is the four year anniversary of my Uncle’s passing. I can’t believe it is four years. Thank you for your kind words.

  17. Answer to Quiz.

    What is the latest it has reached over 70 degrees in Boston?

    A. November 10th
    B. November 15th
    C. December 1st
    D. December 29th

    The answer is D. Maybe this happened in late 1980’s …?

    As for the Pats, maybe 14-2 or 13-3 worst case.

  18. There have been sporadic 70+ readings through the years at Boston in December. I think they did it twice, significantly, in a very warm December 2001. I believe on December 1 the high temp was 77. That was the day of the SNE Weather Conference in Worcester. We were outside basking for a while. HAHA!

    1. Indeed, December 2001 was warm. But, there were a few very cold days thrown in, right around the solstice. They felt particularly cold because it had been so warm.

  19. My winter prediction – for what it’s worth, and that ain’t much given my limited knowledge of meteorological models – is average in terms of total snowfall and temperature. Snowfall in the 40-45 inch range for Boston. Much more up in NNE, but not the bonanza of last year. Temps slightly above normal on average, with no prolonged cold snaps or warm-ups (a lot of short-lived ups and downs).

  20. The Steelers-Rams game is still in the first half. It’s taken close to two hours to play 30 minutes of football. I’m sorry, but that’s truly ridiculous. I sound like a curmudgeon. But, when I was a kid – when the Pats started 7-0 and finished the season 7-7 in 1975 (Philip reminded us of this) all games were over after about 2 hours and 30 minutes. Al sports need to do something about the problem of game length.

      1. Price $1.00 (1984), Price $2.00 (2001)

        The Boston Globe always was expensive. Still is today at $3.00 and $6.00 Sunday.

    1. I concur. Thanks Longshot! These quizzes provide a lot of historical weather and climate info as well as generate more discussion here on WHW. 🙂

      Of course TK knows all the answers already so he can’t be stumped. 😉

  23. 1984-85 = 26.6”
    1985-86 = 18.1”

    The 1980’s were not really kind to snow lovers. Most of that decade snowfall was well below normal. Only 2 winters had above normal amounts and one near normal.

      1. That’s two years. I have photos of my kids …born 1980, 1984, 1986…in snow well over their heads as well as Mac sliding off the roof trying to clear it. I was talking to his mom when I heard the thump

      2. I always call the 1980s “the snow drought” decade. It was the lightest snow decade of the last 4 by far.

        1979-80, 1980-81, 1982-83, 1984-85, 1985-86, 1988-89 were all quite light on the seasonal snowfall. The other winters were a little more respectable but none of them were blockbusters.

        The “big” storms were sparse. But we had a few.

        The decade ended with the coldest December on record in 1989, but there was almost no snow that month as it was exceedingly dry.

        1. I think it added to the difficulties of the ski area. We did, however, have some storms that left us “buried.” More one offs but still significant

          1. December 5-6 1981
            April 6 1982 … Making the 2 largest storms of the 1981-82 winter both occurring outside of “winter”. 😉
            February 12 1983 (lone big storm that winter)
            March 29 1984 (biggest event of that winter, after winter was over)

            The 1986-87 and 1987-88 winters both had series of significant snowstorms, nothing like the 1990s but I remember a series of difficult commutes coming home from classes at U Lowell in my rear wheel drive Chevy Chevette. 😉

            1. Those are what I recall. But even before the March 29 1984 we had a foot in metro west….March 13 😉 1983 storm I have pics of my oldest and her cousin one year younger popping out of a snow pole along the street that was taller than their 3 and 2 year old height.

              But it was not enough to keep too many ski areas Alive. Very sad

              1. I’m sure I missed a couple significant snows. And there are some that were more localized, some that were further inland than Boston, and some ocean-effect. It was definitely not a snowless decade. 🙂

  25. Looks like anywhere from a dusting to 1 1/2 inches post frontal passage tomorrow.
    Depends upon model choice. GFS is the lowest with about .2
    SREF has mean of 1.38 inches for Boston. NAMS about 3/4 inch or so.
    Euro is about an inch. We shall see.

    1. Going back in my memory banks for any analogs and I come up with
      about 1 inch for similar situations. (couldn’t tell you the date, but it was a long time ago) It doesn’t mean a thing of course, but I thought it interesting just the same.

Comments are closed.