Monday Forecast

41 Comments

8:15AM

Veteran’s Day 2019. Thank you to all who have served us!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
A 5-day period that will start mild and end mild will have quite a different story to tell between those mild bookends. We start out with mild air and lots of cloudiness ahead of a cold front slowly approaching the region today. That front will almost make it into southeastern New England but will be temporarily halted by a wave of low pressure which will pass northwest of this area during Tuesday, but as it does so, it will whip the front through more rapidly during the afternoon, causing what starts as rain to end as mix/snow for some areas (minor accumulation mainly north and west of Boston), and a sharp temperature drop, and not just to levels cold for November, but levels that would still qualify as somewhat below normal for mid winter, along with wind, Tuesday night through Wednesday. Get ready! As high pressure moves closer, passing just north of the region, Thursday will still be cold but more tranquil. As the high starts to move away, a light south wind and increasing moisture will bring milder air in but also the risk of a few snow showers (at first Thursday night) then rain showers during Friday, returning the same kind of feel to the air that we will have today. By late Friday, we may already be seeing an increase in wind as the next weather change gets ready to occur…
Forecast details…
TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain showers possible central MA and southern NH midday-afternoon. Highs 45-50 north and west of Boston, 50-55 Boston southward. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain overspreading the region west to east morning, ending as snow north and west of Boston with a under 1 inch accumulation on unpaved surfaces afternoon, ending as snow/rain mix Boston southward with no accumulation later in the day. Highs 45-52 northwest of Boston, 52-59 Boston southward occurring in the morning, then a sharp drop from west to east during the afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, becoming W to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts from west to east during the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Black ice on any roads and walkways that haven’t dried off. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Brief passing snow showers possible. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S late.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in. Risk of a snow shower. Lows 25-32. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W and increasing late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
High pressure from Canada centers itself north of the region over the weekend delivering dry, chilly air November 16 moderating slightly November 17. The high center will be close enough for fair weather November 18 then slip away enough to allow more cloudiness and additional temperature moderation November 19, but looking precipitation-free at this point. A new bubble of high pressure should arrive by the end of the period with fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
A general west to east (zonal) pattern is expected with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple brief precipitation threats, mainly passing rain showers, depending on the timing of disturbances.

41 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

      1. Not everybody will get the coating. That’s about the most anybody will get, if they get anything. This will not be a widespread coating for the entire region. Also, pavements will get nothing.

    1. No flash freeze. I explained above that we’d see patchy ice on areas that don’t dry off. Most areas will dry off due to wind and crashing dew point. Also, the average ground temperature is around 40F.

  9. We’re experiencing Indian Summer south of Boston today. Most obs from Marshfield south and east near 60F and it feels that way. Very mild.

      1. JP and Logan match in temperature for a change. Does that mean the Logan thermometer is finally fixed…or just plain coincidence?

        1. Logan will often be the same as fourth cliff Wunder station in Humarock. Although fourth cliff us currently 53

          It was 61 top temp in Sutton. Clouds had it back to 53 last I looked. And a cool breeze was added

            1. Daughter just said 51 here. I was too lazy to get up. So fourth cliff which is basically surrounded by water is warmer.

  12. From DT:

    EAST COAST WINTER WX LOVERS–long term Good news /1 The development of 2 SIGNIFICANT coastal Low out of the Gulf and up the southeast US coast NOV 16-17 and again NOV 20-21 is VERY encouraging sign with respect to Winter pattern. WHY?

    Some may know there are generally two types of winter storms for the East Coast ( actually there are 3) . Those that redevelop from Ohio Valley LOW that jump re form off the Middle Atlantic coast ( MILLER B) and the Gulf of Mexico LOW which comes up the coast ( MILLER A) .

    Generally MILLER B type -LOW redevelopment of the Mid Atlantic benefits mostly New England and not Middle Atlantic & Tennessee Valley areas. MILLER A-classic coastal LOW Noreaster usually has a lot more precip and it impacts reach deeper inland & covers more of the East Coast

    so… an active southern jet means that this winter may be more likely to see MILLER A LOW pressure systems coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and impacting large portions of the East Coast. (Assuming that recent trend of active the southern jet of the last 3-4 weeks continues

    the THIRD type of East coast Winter storm is MILLER C- NC VA/ eastern MD to se New England track Missing CHO DCA BAL PHL most of NJ NYC eastern PA interior se NY interior New England

    1. It’ll be interesting to see if those can be pulled off without much of a southern jet stream. I’m going to doubt it.

      1. What do the letters “DT” stand for? He’s not much better than Dr. Cohen. Always on the snow train whether the pattern fits or not. This does nothing for true (winter) weather enthusiasts other than produce false hopes every season.

      1. Really hoping that nice weather materializes for Nov 20-21 as we fly out for our Thanksgiving holiday in London. Hoping nice weather materializes there too where the rain has been incessant…

        1. Have a nice trip to London. Nice weather there this time of year is practically unheard of. So, don’t count on it. This said, it won’t be terrible. This time of year, right through February, it’s mostly gray (90% of the time) and around 45-50F, with light rain showers from time to time.

  14. It wouldn’t shock me to see some heightened southern stream activity in the next couple weeks, largely due to the MJO. DT fails to mention that even if we do, there won’t be any cold around beyond next weekend. And I agree with TK, this is unlikely to be representative of the overall winter pattern, which should be more like last year’s with prominent Southeast ridging. Overall, of course, not every day.

      1. Thank you, North. It was a day of tears and laughter. Mac would have loved that. I went back and read comments from my whw family from four years ago. It doesn’t get much better.

        Heading for the deck now. Mac and I have a lot to chat about 🙂

  16. Good morning,

    37 here.

    Looking ahead, I say blah blah blah blah

    Yes, I know it’s Not Winter yet, but oftentimes (not always), November offers
    clues for the Winter.

    So, I sure hope this does not represent the pattern for the entire Winter because
    that would really suck big time.

    Putting together my forecast for Winter snow (read that my guesses). 🙂
    And I am leaning low, DT notwithstanding. DT is a real character, but he is wrong so often it isn’t even funny.

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