Wednesday Forecast

64 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Cold air more like mid winter is here for a brief but stinging stay today, with wind making it feel even colder than the actual air temperature. Boston should break a long-standing record set in 1874 (36) for the coldest high temperature for the day (forecasting a 33). Bundle up if you’ll be outside! The bubble of arctic high pressure that brought this air to us will slide offshore by Thursday, and gradually warming air will bring more cloudiness and perhaps a snow or rain shower by evening but not looking for much out of that threat. This will hang on until early Friday and then a westerly air flow will increase as a moisture-starved trough approaches and passes, clearing it out. A cold front will pass later and bring in another brief shot of colder air for Saturday before a slight moderation takes place Sunday with high pressure in control. However this high will give way somewhat to low pressure to the south later Sunday allowing some increased cloudiness. I don’t expect that low pressure area to move too quickly or too far north to spoil the end of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32 except 33-38 Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill frequently below 20.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 except 23-28 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower possible. Lows 32-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH, shifting to W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Watching low pressure to the south in the November 18-21 period, likely 2 centers, either of which can impact the region with at least clouds and a gusty breeze, but may be close enough for precipitation (favoring rain). By the end of the period a dry westerly air flow should be back.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
A zonal (west to east) flow pattern with up and down temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal overall, and a couple rain shower threats, the greater one toward the end of the period.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Bottomed out at 17 this morning here in JP.

    Looks like Logan made about 21, at least as of 7Am obs. Perhaps it was a tad lower
    between 6AM and 7AM obs.

  3. Good Morning and thank you

    Daughter said it was 14 around 6:30. I haven’t checked to see what low was. It’s up to 19 now.

  5. Thank you TK!
    It’s a hat a gloves type of morning out there today, dropped down to 14.9 here.
    Unfortunately another heartbreaking day for the Worcester fire department, as they lost another firefighter. Prayers for his family.

    1. Oh, SC, I had not heard. Just tragic. Prayers are certainly for his family and friends and fellow firefighters.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Last time it was this cold on November 13th Ulysses Grant was president. Well, actually, that’s inaccurate, because it’s colder today than it was on November 13th, 1874. If I had to guess the last time it was this cold on November 13th in Boston I’d guess some time in the 1600s. But, systematic record-keeping of weather wasn’t done at the time. So, we just don’t know.

    1. I am not sure what the temperatures were in November 1992, but it was a truly cold period. It was the year we bought our oldest’s first pony and sitting in the barn waiting for vet checks, etc., even I was bundled in jackets and hat and gloves. That was in Thompson, CT.

      1. Thompson is a pretty town. Close to Woodstock, I believe.

        I wasn’t in the U.S. in November 1992, but I can check my shoe boxes filled with aerogrammes that my father wrote to me. He mentioned the weather in every aerogramme.

  7. This hits close to home for me as my brother is a fire lieutenant. Like some other jobs out there, it can be one of high risk at times.

  8. Up to 22 here as we approach 10 AM.
    Will we break freezing? I suspect I’ll top out at 31 or 32. We shall see.

  10. Thanks TK
    I saw this on twitter from NY Metro Weather asking with one month left in this decade what do you think the most memorable storms of this decade are? I was doing something thinking and I am curious to hear what you all think are the most memorable storms of this decade? Here are mine.
    Post Christmas Blizzard December 26, 2010
    Springfield Tornado June, 1, 2011
    Irene 2011
    October 2011 Nor’easter or as some call it snowtober
    Sandy 2012
    Blizzard in February 2013 where some areas saw 6 inch per hour snowfall rates. It was the biggest snowfall from a storm in my life
    Snow Blitz in 2015 which led to Boston having snowiest winter on record. Prior to that people were wondering where winter was.
    Overnight severe weather outbreak February 2016.
    Wind storm in October 2017
    May 15, 2018 4 Tornadoes hit CT. This year had a record 9 tornadoes for CT.

    1. I pretty much agree with everything JJ but would have to expand your first one to include that entire six week snow blitz from late Dec 2010 through January 2011. The whole thing was impressive and the snow depths were incredible (40″+) by the end of it. If we had to narrow it down to one “memorable storm” during that stretch, it would be the January 12 system for me where we had a widespread 18-30″ snowfall across SNE and BDL broke their record for the largest snowstorm at the time. That system definitely outperformed the 12/26/10 storm which was actually a dud in my area (only got 8″).

  12. Thanks, TK…

    Just an unbelieveable tragedy for the city and people of Worcester and the WFD.

    This morning’s tragic accident is so terribly ironic and sad. Dr. Charles Steinberg of the Red Sox announced just yesterday that the new Worcester team will honor the six firefighters who died 20 years ago by retiring the uniform number 6. In addition, eight tickets for each home game at Polar Park will be donated to the WFD and their families. Eight was chosen as the number to memorialize the eight Worcester firefighters who have died in the line of duty in the past 20 years. I guess the number will have to be nine.

    God bless the soul of Lt. Jason Menard and give strength to his family.

    2. So sad. I can’t believe the bad luck of the Worcester Fire Dept.
      The families had to endure the losses. Pretty rough on them.

  17. Looking again today at teleconnections…

    NAO now forecast to tank the next couple weeks:
    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    PNA is going positive and the MJO is going into favorable Phases 8-1-2 for the balance of the month.

    I wonder if we can’t get a snow event out of this before end of month?

    The models are hinting at some type of coastal storm next week. The issue seems to be we may not have enough cold air in place. It is still November but there is plenty of snow cover to the north of us. Just need a mechanism to get it down here. Could be interesting if that NAO forecast pans out.

  18. Mark thanks for me of reminding me of that six week snow blitz that started with the post Christmas Blizzard on December 26th, 2010. BDL did have their biggest snowfall on record in that six week stretch with 24 inches of snow as you mentioned. Second is the blizzard of 2013 with 22.3 inches of snow.

    From Judah Cohen
    CFS this morning predicting classic troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling event with Ural blocking in Nov, #PolarVortex disruption in Dec & -AO/+PNA in Jan bringing #cold to east North America/North Asia. Not sure if this is kiss of death or so obvious even CFS sees it!

    Jeremy Reiner response to tweet
    Translation…*perhaps* our cold blast today is a harbinger of things to come this winter….

  19. Ok, I had a high of 29 and low of 17.

    TK, is my sensor a little low? Should I recalibrate? Or does it seem in line?
    Please advise

    Many thanks

  20. Quick update: Well there really is no update. Leaning is for losing the cold air when we have a “kind of” storm threat next week, but most of that should remain offshore versus being a direct hit.

    The series of cold blasts come to an end for a little while next week. I find it interesting that the ECMWF is interested in more polar jet and cold air Nov 22-23 on the current run. That doesn’t mean much, just a trigger to monitor future runs, which I’d be doing anyway, so I guess it’s not really even a trigger now, is it? 😉 It’s just interesting. Hmm, I should have just quit there. 😛

    1. Further shows how Logan’s sensor is out of whack big time!!

      Logan’s high was 30 today, Perhaps 31. NOT 33!!!!!!!!!!!!@(*)#&!*@#&!&@#

      Even though TK forecast 33. 🙂 🙂

        1. Logan still broke the record regardless. I suppose the “actual” Airport temp never got above freezing but that is moot now. We have to live with it. 😉

          33

    1. I am really wrestling with that.
      I am wondering if Mother Nature wants to throw a little surprise our way this Winter.

      Which means no matter which way I go with my snow forecasts, I’ll be wrong.

    3. Definitely not a carbon copy.

      Last winter we had a much more active subtropical jet stream than we’ll have this year.

  26. The cold today was really impressive. We beat some very long standing records. Particularly in the current global climate, it is not easy for widespread record lows to occur.

  27. Forecaster’s tip: the second night behind a cold front is usually the coldest. The first night may feel colder, but the actual air temperature stays up because of the sustained wind. The second night, the winds drop off as high pressure crests overhead and the temperatures fall like a rock at sundown. We’ve already undercut some of last night’s lows by 9PM this evening and will knock out more in the hours ahead. Teens and single digits on the way tonight. This is what I think of as the winter equivalent of those very warm days in April-May where we often run 5-10 degrees above guidance.

      1. Thanks for the tip WxW! I never knew that.

        Of course Logan will be immune to any big temperature drop with their faulty thermometer and all.

    2. Exactly right, and forecast tonight’s lows based on this. We will cap the temp drop soon though.

  28. Good morning,

    Bottomed out at 17 here this morning while the jokeport is at 25.
    Looking at temps around the area, my 17 looks good. Last night at 11,
    I was at 20, while Milton and Needham were also at 20, so that looked reasonable.

    So, perhaps my sensor is OK after all?

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