Friday Forecast

61 Comments

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A warm front went by overnight, taking away whatever remained of the cold air mass that was in place. Today will be a mild day with fair weather, but 2 cold fronts are set to pass by, one this afternoon and one tonight. The second front will be producing snow showers in northern New England but the moisture with it will dry up before reaching southern New England, so tonight just some clouds will mark its passage. But you will feel the return to cold air, along with wind, behind this front for Saturday. This bubble of high pressure from Canada is going to remain centered to the north of the region during the weekend, sliding to the east, and while this happens a low pressure area will organize off the US Southeast / Mid Atlantic coast but rapidly mature and peak in strength well to the south of New England, but as it fills, broadens, and weakens gradually, it will bump up against the departing high pressure area late in the weekend and bring a breezy wet weather event to southeastern New England Sunday night into Monday. We’ll have lost any cold air aloft by then, so whatever falls from the sky will be liquid. The only risk of anything frozen taking place is a bit of sleet or freezing rain in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH Sunday night and very early Monday as just cold enough air may be in place at the surface. That system will be out of here later Monday, but a general northeasterly air flow will keep low level moisture in place through Tuesday, so at this point it does not look like much clearing will take place initially behind the low pressure system. If the air flow ends up more northerly than currently anticipated, we’d see some clearing.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling to the 10s overnight.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior valleys, 22-29 elsewhere. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Lowering overcast. Rain arrives south to north. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coast.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Another low pressure area has to be watched but current indications are it will pass pretty far offshore with just cloudiness and wind here on November 20, then a westerly air flow brings in slightly milder and dry air for November 21 before a low pressure area tracking eastward and passing north of the region November 22 brings its fronts through and results in more unsettled weather. Things moving right along means a return to fair weather for November 23, but by later November 24 we may already be eyeing low pressure tracking from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Thanksgiving Week may start with a coastal storm threat but it’s too far away to even start talking about any details. It could just as easily end up too far south for any impact. The remainder of the week looks like it will be back in a westerly air flow pattern with passing minor systems 1 or 2 times, but largely dry weather. There will be plenty of fine-tuning ahead as this is an important travel time.

61 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Pretty neat to see such agreement at 192 hrs out between the 00Z operational runs of the EURO and GFS.

    Both take a clipper and rapidly intensify it in the Gulf of Maine. While this wouldn’t offer much, if any snow to southern New England, I’m more amazed by how similar they are at hr 192.

  5. Beautiful working conditions out in the field today as I’m pulling up all the mums in front of the building .

  6. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Could you please enlighten us as to the rules for this Winter’s Snow contest.
    Cities included and the deadline for submitting.

    Many thanks

    1. As it moves up the coast, sub-freezing 850 mb temps get completely eroded
      away as we knew and expected. Too bad that high couldn’t hang tough.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    The mostly zonal flow is not conducive to snow or cold over the next few weeks in coastal SNE. Cold tomorrow, but after that I don’t think coastal Southern New England will go below freezing at night for a while. Perhaps not until December. Shows you how a few cold blips in early to mid November do not translate to anything remotely sustained in terms of cold. I’m going out on a limb to say that November 13th will be turn out colder (lowest maximum temperature) than any day in December. this year. We’ll have to wait January for that kind of cold to return.

    1. Disagree. Guarantee there will be at least one day (likely more) in December that will be that cold or colder.

  10. Thanks, TK, and Happy Friday, y’all!!!

    Topical Tidbits (I am in a punny mood today!)

    23 in the bogs of Taunton this morning

    We were all excited and getting ready for a 5.2″ snowfall this day last year.

    Weather was the topic of Wednesday’s Tournament of Jeopardy Championship:
    The inventor of the barometer (paraphrasing here): “Who is Torricelli?

    I try to be a “live for today” person, however, we only have 10 more minutes and 23 more days till we reach the earliest sunset of the year (4:13 pm on December 8).

    I am a bit melancholy today as Elton John (the “real” Captain Fantastic) plays his last (so he says!) Boston show ever tonight.

    “Boston at last, and the plane’s touching down.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsC3g3N_qUQ

    https://imgur.com/SjyVOjK

  12. JP Dave, I hope you’re right. I’m not seeing much cold at all after tomorrow for awhile, at least not in coastal SNE. Cold is well north, bottled up, if you will. This can change. But, I see a fairly persistent pattern during the next 2 or 3 weeks in which upper 40s will be the typical daytime temp around here, with mid 30s as the typical low. I do think it’ll get colder than that in December for sure. But, I’m unsure whether we’ll have daytime highs below freezing.

    1. I think, in the short term, the idea of somewhat milder temps in southernmost areas is a decent idea.

      But, all of December encompasses almost 7 weeks (15 + 31) and its hard to determine if there won’t be a pattern change in all of that time. Wouldn’t take much of a jet stream dip to grab a small piece of arctic air, throw it into New England for one or 2 days and have daytime highs be in the 20s or less.

      1. Of course we’ll have at least one if not more December days
        with day time highs below freezing. Not sure I have ever
        seen a year when that did not happen.

        I remember one extremely mild December where we still had
        a day in the 20s. 🙂

        1. 2001 was like that. There were at least 2 days in the 20s, but also many days above 50, and even a few above 60 and 70.

          2014 was mild, too. But, as JP Dave alluded to, we probably did have a full day or two below freezing that December.

          2015 was exceptionally mild, especially towards the end. I think we only had one full day below freezing; it was on a Saturday middle of the month.

      2. Totally agree, Tom.

        I’m not saying the pattern won’d change. It probably will.

        I just really don’t like the upcoming pattern. I say that because I find these patterns can persist for long, long stretches. Very frustrating for someone who absolutely loves days like Wednesday (and tomorrow), and would like to see some real snows.

    2. There’s plenty of cold not too far to our north. We’ll have several opportunities for at least shots of it to come down here in December.

    1. We can and will this winter, just not now. Remember it’s still only mid November!

      By the way, I have been standing here at the pond for an hour…..where are you???

  15. Today’s the one year anniversary of the November 15 “NYC nightmare” storm last year. That storm was basically a worst case scenario of what happens when communication falls apart in a rapidly evolving weather situation. Far from the biggest storm that region has seen, but among the most impactful for transportation purposes. That has led to what I think will be lasting change in how forecasts are communicated and in how risk is assessed leading into winter weather events, big and small.

  17. Judah Cohen tweet, pretty much pointing out the same thing as Eric:

    It’s another American vs. Euro model cage match! American models have two blocking centers in North Atlantic-Scandinavian & Greenland while Euro just one-Scandinavian. I think has potential huge implications for long term weather, whether #winter weather comes short or long term.

    https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1195081287155036164?s=20

  18. Eric Fisher
    17h

    If you want a warm winter in Boston, you want to see a warm November. Not the case this year.

    In the 2000s there have been 8 Novembers >1F warmer than average

    The following winters include the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th warmest on record. Interestingly, no ENSO correlation

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1195148974912626690?s=20

    @ericfisher
    17h

    On the flip side, we have had 7 Novembers >1F colder than average during that time. 3 of them ended up quite cold for winter. And this is definitely more of the type of pattern we have seen of late.

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1195149217125294080?s=20

    @ericfisher
    16h

    So, unless something *really* changes over the next 45-60 days, you can probably expect a cold winter on tap

  19. 12Z Euro looks interesting in 10 days, 11/25.

    https://imgur.com/a/Pbd7bcH

    Low in nice position with upper air favorable for some intensification.
    Clearly a start as rain. IF and I say a big if, it could intensify enough, perhaps it
    could do 2 things:

    1. Draw down somewhat colder air from NNE
    2. With dynamic cooling bring down some colder air from above

    IF not, kiss it good-bye.

  20. Hey Mark, I was giving you a hard time re Ice thickness
    I posted something early this AM, so I will paraphrase here.

    Generally, speaking you are correct that 4 inches is the cutoff point for safe ice and
    assumes non-contaminated solid black ice with none of the crap slush frozen in.

    However, if one wants to disregard that, I assure you that kind of ice will hold
    a person at considerably less thickness.

    Growing up, we would clearly take chances, but we skated on a pond with a Maximum
    depth of about 4 feet, so we were willing to push it. We skated on 1 1/2 to perhaps
    2-inch thickness. Once in awhile one of us would push through the ice and get wet.
    🙂 🙂
    We once skated on a pond in Westwood (Buckmaster?) where the ice was so thin,
    that a good poke with the butt end of the hockey stick would pierce through the ice. 🙂

    Btw, I have ice fished on the Charles River in Millis, Skated for miles on the Bogastow brook in Millis (see map below. skated in the area circled in black) and played hockey on the Charles River in West Roxbury.

    https://imgur.com/a/8vt7rQe

    1. Yeah Dave, I did see your post this AM and agree in many cases most people are generally safe on ice less than 4″ in depth though my point was that I don’t think the ice around here right now could support a human being. It just hasn’t been cold enough for long enough to build a consistent ice depth more than an inch or so. Even just an inch of ice can look deceivingly more thick to the naked eye.

      1. As I drove through the area here today…which, like Marks has been considerably colder than East of here….the ice in even the most shallow water areas could not support a human. Most, perhaps all, could not support a child. The water in the hummingbird Feeder that I’ve been too lazy to toss in the trash and that is on north side of house has even melted some.

  22. I have no issue with anything Judah or Eric said. Their interpretation. I am not going to dive too much into the model mayhem issue for now. It will work itself out. I have my ideas going forward which I outlined yesterday, and I am pretty sure the models will work their differences out (maybe a summit haha) in the next 10 days while I formulate the remains of my winter forecast. One thing I will say, we will get a slight respite from the cold shots for part of next week, coinciding with the more active subtropical jet stream (temporarily). But regardless of whether we see +NAO or -NAO going into December, both ways that pattern can work out will allow additional cold to enter New England. There is going to be a lot of it to tap. We will surpass our November 13 cold more than once in December. Whether we put a snowy pattern in place for a period of time remains to be seen. I am not sure if any of you remember my hints many weeks ago that it would not surprise me to see it snow early (December), but that did not necessarily mean we’d have a gangbusters snow winter either. I still feel that the large scale pattern for the upcoming winter may struggle to support a lot of important snow events here. But I reserve the right to change that thinking as well, and I have 9 days to do it. 😛

    In the more immediate shorter term, the NAM is moving the precipitation in here too quickly on Sunday. Dry air will be stronger than it thinks.

  23. Quick note… If the GFS defeats the NAM on the track of that storm upcoming and the timing of rain’s arrival in SNE it is going to go a ways to showing me that one thing that has improved about the GFS with the upgrade is its handling of southern stream features.

  24. TK I remember back on January 1st of this year when you were making your weather prediction for 2019 you said it would snow early but it doesn’t mean it would be a snowy winter.

  26. I believe December 1981 was an example of early snow. It snowed little thereafter until April 6-7, 1982. Am I correct on that TK?

    1. The Book-end winter. Dec 5-6 1981 & April 6 1982. The biggies. The rest of the winter was very modest.

  28. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely tomorrow, NWS Boston mentioned that in their AFD. Careful if you have any outdoor burning plans. Very dry and breezy following a dry start to the month/dry fuels. Not as much of an issue as it would be if the temperatures were warmer, but any fires that start will tend to spread quickly.

    1. Pretty good video by Doug here and he does a good job explaining all the “signs”. He is going with 50% above normal snow for his area which is fairly substantial. 28-37″ for Dulles (normal is 22″)

  30. FOX 5 out of Washington DC

    “2019-2020 DC Winter Forecast: Periodic Polar Vortex visits to bring waves of brutal cold, more snow to DC region”

    https://www.fox5dc.com/weather/2019-2020-dc-winter-forecast-periodic-polar-vortex-visits-to-bring-waves-of-brutal-cold-more-snow-to-dc-region

    Going with a slightly above normal snow season for the Washington area. They do mention no “big blizzards” expected due to lack of El Nino but a few significant 6″+ storms likely.

      1. That would be nice. But, do you believe it? I’m skeptial. What I’m seeing in the coming couple of weeks is a pretty significant differential in temperature and precipitation type setting up between NNE and SNE; and the interior and coast. This is somewhat similar to last year. Cold hangs tough in NNE and parts of the interior, but does not in SNE, especially at the coast. It gets more interesting where you are, Mark.

        1. He knows. Every run will be somewhat different, as usual. The 18z GFS was not initialized well, and was far too cold with far too much polar jet.

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