Sunday Forecast

109 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
The wildcard was lower cloudiness, and we have some of that, but not too extensively, to start the day, so still some areas see sunshine for a while, but either way as the day goes on the higher cloud shield from the coastal / ocean storm to the south of New England will be increasing anyway, so sun eventually loses the battle either way. Rainfall from this system, as previously mentioned, must fight quite a bit of dry air to get going here and that particular battle won’t really be won until the early morning hours of Monday, south to north. This turns Monday wet for everyone eventually, and there still may be a few pockets of freezing rain over portions of central MA, interior northeastern MA, and interior southern NH. I don’t think the cold air will be deep enough to support any sleet. Any freezing rain will be fleeting too as temperatures warm to above freezing by midday Monday at the latest in those locations. Elsewhere, no icing issues with this. The low center passes east of New England Monday night and rain shuts off, but lower level moisture may keep drizzle going, and then Tuesday a lobe of energy or a trailing trough may produce another period of rain (maybe some mix higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH) as it pulls through the region during the morning hours. This is a change from yesterday’s thinking of temporary drying out timed for the morning. Drier air eventually gets in later Tuesday and may be more dominant than previously expected for Wednesday as another storm system evolves well offshore and is not a factor in the weather here, other than to help freshen a northweterly wind between itself and high pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. This high will pass south of the region resulting in a very nice Thursday, which puts us to exactly one week before Thanksgiving…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain arrives south to north overnight. Pockets of sleet/freezing rain possible interior higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mainly morning through early afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-30 MPH South Coast, higher gusts possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except possibly some ice/sleet central MA and southwestern NH. Variably cloudy afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Low pressure passes north of the region and drags a frontal system through on November 22 with unsettled weather. Dry/chilly November 23. Another low passes south of the region November 24, possibly close enough for rain and even some mix. Fair, chilly weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Will watch for another frontal system passing through around the start of the period from a low that will track across southeastern Canada, exact timing not clear this far out. Another relatively minor system should be passing by around November 29, but again timing uncertain. Overall westerly flow with changeable temperatures but nothing too extreme.

109 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    This morning Dave Epstein noted a coastal front over extreme SE coastal MA/Cape.

    Boston 28/Marshfield 39…probably a snow killer for Boston anyway. 😉

  6. If this were a snow event, the snow lovers would be about to be very disappointed with what will be largely a miss or sideswipe of what would have been a major snowstorm if it was about 50 miles further west. But this time, it’s a rain event that’s largely missing. I’ve said before and I restate, there is NO atmospheric preference having to do with precipitation type. It just depends on the weather pattern at the time.

  12. Hold ing at 34 here with some light snow grains/snizzle? in the air as I was just out
    and could feel it and see it. It is very light, but there.

    Not for nothing, but the 3KM NAM forecast this. 🙂

        3. Not correct, but this does look somewhat like
          the Black Hills region of SD, so very good guess, but you’re
          more than 1,000 miles off. 🙂

    1. ?????
      Nope, there is nothing remotely resembling this in Kansas or Nebraska.
      Farther South and please don’t say Oklahoma. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Thanks JPD. I had no idea Texas had any mountains. I always thought of that state with miles of flat “nothingness”.

      1. Yes, indeed. Sorry, it was kind of a trick question.
        But it is part of a mountain range in SE New Mexico that sticks
        down into that part of Texas. I love it! Pretty cool, imho.

  25. SNOWING here in JP with regular flakes. REAL SNOW.
    Temp 35 here and I don’t give a pig’s duff about that damn observation location for Boston because it is not real and not representative of the rest of the city!

    1. Rain over Harbor including Airport/East Boston with snow elsewhere within the city. Very sharp rain/snow line to say the least.

  27. Trivia Quiz.

    What is the last time that Boston reached 10 degrees in November?
    A. It never has
    B. 2005
    C. 1978
    D. 1932

    Answer later today.

    1. I don’t know the answer to this, but since we’re mainly talking about
      Logan as opposed to the rest of the city, I am going with A

  28. 32 atop Blue Hill, Down the street from me, ab0ut 8 miles.

    35 here still.

    39 at the Joke port, where the wind has changed to the NNE and not N anymore.

    2. Marshfield is now NE though as they were due E since well before sunrise. Perhaps that may be an indication…?

      1. Coastal front is still situated North of Marshfield.

        FROM NWS (look at last line)

        Early afternoon update…

        Coastal front remains nearly stationary from E of Cape Ann and
        Boston Harbor across SE Mass, with E-NE winds running from
        between KBOS and KGHG to E of KPVD and KOQU southward. Temps
        remain in the lower-mid 40s across SE Mass, Cape Cod and the
        islands with a 40 degree reading at KWST. N of the front,
        readings were mainly in the 30s, except upper 20s across the
        interior higher terrain.

        Dewpoints remain lower W of the coastal front, from the mid
        teens to around 20 from the interior Merrimack River valley to
        central interior Mass and the CT valley. Rather wide dewpoint
        depressions across central and western areas, from 10 to 15
        degrees. However, noting saturation from about H95-H85 through
        the afternoon as seen on BUFKIT forecast soundings. So, should
        see spotty -SHRA and/or -SHSN across central and eastern areas
        being closer to the low level easterly moisture fetch as well
        as the gradually lowering cloud deck.

        Main area of precip associated with the low off the SC coast,
        with some light precip reaching the outer banks of NC as seen on
        latest KMHX radar imagery. Some question on the track of the
        passing low and whether the coastal front will remain stationary
        into this evening. If it passes a bit further E than currently
        forecast, temps could remain colder further inland which would
        mean more mixed precip inland. May need to extend winter weather
        headlines further E.

  36. Longshot’s quiz:

    I know it wasn’t 2005. I wasn’t in the area in November, 1978. I can’t stand “None of the Above” as an answer, so, I will say, D, 1932.
    Love these, Longshot! Thanks!

    2. The conditions that it’s being posted for probably will not occur in the vast majority of the area, but since it is “possible”, as stated, they should definitely have it posted.

      It’s up to the readers to realize that “possible” is not the same term as “definite”. 🙂

  38. So let’s look back at “the models” in 2 quick examples…

    1) It’s pretty obvious that this low is going to be far enough offshore to spare the region of heavy precipitation with big amounts, really strong wind, etc, yet just a day or so ago we still had models trying to do just that. Just because a model says it, doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to go.

    2) Looking a little further back. Remember that unsettled weather event we had earlier in the week? How much snow accumulation occurred across southern England with it? That’s right. Pretty much ZERO. Do you recall when models like the GFS and ECMWF were forecasting amounts above 20 inches in some areas for that event when it was about a week to 10 days away? 😉 Just because a model says it, doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to go.

    Meteorology not modelology. 😀

  39. Temp is actually ever so slightly rising here. Now above freezing where at kickoff we were at freezing.

    1. I was just thinking the bone chilling wind/temps of the past two days seemed to have disappeared. We are at 32, but I’ve had the slider full open for an hourish. (I made scallops and wanted to air our house.). I’m toying with putting on headphones and listening to game in deck

  40. We also had a snow shower that showed the different temps of the pavement. In the shadow of my garage in the front, the snow started to stick. Where the sun hits further down the driveway it didn’t.

  41. I also forgot. I drove by some smaller and larger bodies of water in Sutton yestersay. One pond in a private yard had a very thin layer of ice. We tossed a stone about one inch in diameter and it broke through easily. The larger bodies had absolutely no sign of ice except in a limited few areas right up to shore and out maybe five feet and that is generous

    1. This is a great weather pattern for illustrating the 39F rule. The shallow water bodies have cooled to 39F top to bottom and then can cool to 32F or lower at the surface and form ice, provided it is cold enough long enough. The deeper waters have not had the chance to reach a 39F uniform temp yet, so no ice. 🙂

      39F is when water is at its most dense, so each 39F layer of water will sink to the bottom and when the process has gone on long enough the entire body of water is about 39F, doesn’t mix any further, and the top can finally freeze. 🙂

  42. Was up to 39 here just before the end of the game. When the game was over it was
    back down to 34. It is now 33, but did dip briefly to 32. Probably like 32.3 or 32.4.
    Drizzling now or very light rain. It does not appear to be freezing.

    1. Ground is still marginal in a lot of the area, especially urban locations.

      The icing will verify on only about 5-10% of the geographical region that the WWA was issued.

  43. In Looking over the observations, just back from the coast, there appears to be
    a uniform 34. Therefore, I think my sensor is off by 1 degree. Later today I am going to
    reset it up 1 degree. I don’t think it is 33 here, I believe it to be 34. IT is 32 atop Blue Hill which is some 500+ feet higher than my location. fwiw it is worth, it is 37 at the airport with a NNW. Real airport temp probably 35 or at best 36.

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