Monday Forecast

72 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
We start this late autumn day with a winterish issue, and that is pockets of icing where drizzle is occurring over some inland locations. Surfaces are just cold enough in some cases, especially untreated walks, stairs, overpasses, etc., for some very light glazing as the drizzle falls into air that sits just below freezing, so be careful if you are heading out and test surfaces before you fully commit to them. The issue won’t last long, even though some areas of light rain will be moving in as an ocean storm passes by today, because temperatures will rise to above freezing in all areas, although not that far above, making it a very chilly and raw mid November day. Incidentally, some locations will receive more rainfall from a follow-up disturbance crossing the region Tuesday morning than they see today, and that ran may mix with or even end as snow with borderline temperatures over interior higher elevations by midday Tuesday. Beyond that, the departure of this system and the further offshore evolution of another storm Wednesday mean gusty and chilly but drier weather into midweek. If there is a pick of this 5-day period it will no doubt be Thursday, as it will be fair and slightly milder as high pressure passes to the south of the region. However the mildest day of the stretch will be Friday, but the trade-off will be rain showers returning as low pressure tracks north of the region and drags a warm front through very early in the day and a cold front across the region later.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of drizzle, some freezing drizzle especially interior locations west of I-95 through mid morning. Periods of light rain (maybe briefly heavier Cape Cod) mid morning on. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, gusts 30-50 MPH possible Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Minor coastal flooding around high tide times.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of light rain evening. Areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations, during the evening before diminishing somewhat overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain that may mix with or briefly turn to snow before ending over interior higher elevations, but no snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
The weekend before Thanksgiving and the days leading up to the holiday are big food shopping and travel days, along with a handful of regular (or irregular) work commutes, and are vulnerable to foul weather. The weather pattern during this period, likely to be dominated by a fast west to east flow, makes it a little difficult to pin down what will happen so many days in advance. For example, 3 different medium range models have 3 different solutions for the November 23-25 period. What I do know is that we will likely watch a low pressure system or two passing south of the region sometime between late November 23 and November 25, but it is not clear at this point whether or not it will be close enough to impact the weather directly in southern New England. If I had to venture a gut feeling guess, it’s that after a shot of cold air for November 23, one low will come by and close enough for at least cloudiness and possible brief rain/mix as it passes by to the south early November 24, with a second one also passing south of the region November 25. This would be followed by fair weather and typical November chill for November 26, and then we would have to watch for another system from the west by the end of the period – way too far out for details.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
If the 6-10 DAY is low confidence, you can be assured that this further-out-in-time period is even lower confidence. I believe the overall jet stream will be a fast-flowing west to east but appearing like somebody creating waves in a rope. So the only thing I can say is that while it may not be outright stormy it may be active with several changes in the weather to track.

72 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. The temperatures appear to be safely above freezing in well over 95% of the WWA area, so I think since it wasn’t doing much in the way of precipitating anywhere while it was colder (after last night’s snow showers ended) then the glaze part of the event is pretty much a no-show.

    Most of the rain will also be a no-show. Dry air is waging a powerful war.

    The rainfall from the Tuesday morning portion of the event will be much more productive.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Looking at instant weather maps, the frigid arctic air in the medium and long range will be in Siberia.

  7. Thanks TK.

    There are signs of a major pattern shift 7-10 days from now, which we’ll get a brief preview of later this week. It’s the return of the Southeast ridge. We’ll likely stutter step our way there, as we go from what’s been a very cold November with an East Coast trough, to the fast, mainly zonal west-east flow TK has described for the next 7-10 days, to the more pronounced Southeast ridge regime. The 0z ECMWF may have went a little overboard with it, but the trend towards the end of the month and into next, will be warmer times here and less activity from the southern stream.

      1. We’ll likely have quiet times for awhile in terms of winter weather. However, while I think that pattern will be fairly prevalent through the winter, if anything I’m a little more bullish than I have been on getting a couple good periods for cold and snow as we head towards actual winter. One of those may arrive towards the holidays.

          1. The Southeast ridge pattern isn’t a death send for ski country; in fact, they did very well with it last winter, which should be similar to this winter. We’re still a little early in the season even for them, and they probably won’t see a whole lot of natural snow in the next couple weeks. But I don’t foresee them having any problems as we head a little deeper into their season. It takes a rare seasonal pattern (i.e. 2015-2016) to get them to the point where they’re struggling for snow. That won’t happen this year.

    2. Yes, I agree, and also think 0z ECMWF may be a little over-the-top. We’ve seen some of that. I was also a little nervous about a lot of those “continued cold” declarations all over the net lately. I couldn’t be that confident. There have been too many misleading model forecasts … oh, like that 15-25 inches of snow that SNE was painted in on a couple model runs for the system on November 12. 😉

  8. I reset my Davis Instruments temperature sensor up by 1 degree. I have been
    carefully monitoring temperatures and felt that my sensor was reading 1 degree
    too low. Around 6:30 this morning, I noticed a uniform 34 degrees just back from
    the coast. I was reading 33, which was clearly too low.

    I’ll keep monitoring in case it needs further adjustment. Right now I feel
    good about it.

    So, all of those low and highs I have been posting, add 1 degree to all of them.

  9. Boston Harbor Buoy running +2 ft above expected tide level.

    With a 10.3 ft tide expected around 3 pm, that would put the height at 12.3 ft with waves. Nothing major or moderate but definitely some decent splashover at high tide.

    1. Looks like somewhat heavier precip (darker green) about to enter the Boston area and out towards Brookline, etc. Kind of crappy day to be traveling or working outside.

      2. Disagree.

        It is raining pretty damn hard. I got drenched walking to my car at lunch. It may not be heavy rain, but it is surely Moderate. It ain’t light that’s for certain.

        Currently 0.11 inch in the bucket.

        🙂 🙂

        1. Yeah we never got over light rain here even with the “yellow” echoes.

          This will fall easily in my range, and under-perform most forecasts.

    1. “sometimes” the 850 temp crashes to the coast way sooner than modeled.
      Probably NOT this time though. 🙂

    1. Eric Fisher response to tweet:

      Replying to
      @Eweather13

      JB: Look how warm the CFS is, what a terrible model

      Also JB: CFS says cold 6 weeks from now, lock it in!

  16. 12z models are a parade of cutters the next few weeks.

    The 12z Euro is colder for 11/24 and does try for some coastal redevelopment but it is too late for much in SNE. ICON is also further south for that system.

    1. BTW Dave – did you notice that the Euro comes out earlier on the Pivotal site? It was already out to hour 24 by 12:50PM….

  18. This is pretty awesome. This island is off the north coast of Australia…

    Bureau of Meteorology, Northern Territory
    @BOM_NT
    · Nov 16

    Have you heard of Hector? Hector is a thunderstorm which forms on the Tiwi Islands north of #Darwin. It forms so regularly it has been given its own name! This loop shows Hector yesterday. To learn more about it see this video ow.ly/Iqht50xcAgR

    https://twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/1195789293811163137?s=20

  21. Just ran an errand was out. Still raining decently, not pouring buckets, but coming down
    at a decent clip. up to 0.19 inch here in JP.

  25. Ice report. What I think is Meadow Pond in northbridge/whitinsville has signs of very thin layers of ice in a few spots.

  28. Today had a November feel to it. Yesterday, too. Saturday was more like a January day. I prefer that. November is gloomy, usually. There’s no getting around that. December can be gloomy, too, though I believe less so in terms of number of overcast days. And, the holiday lights really brighten things up. January and February tend to be less gloomy, with more sunny, cold days. I heard someone today say at the supermarket “at least it’s rain and not snow.” I couldn’t help myself and said that I really think snow is preferable to cold rain. There’s something about cold rain that irritates me to the core. Snow never irritates me, even when I have to shovel and slip and slide around on the sidewalks. There’s something joyous and uplifting about snow. I just can’t characterize cold rain as joyous and uplifting.

  30. Storm behaving as expected.

    Radar made it look heavier than it was. Nobody reported heavy rain. Borderline moderate in a few locations briefly but if you look at rainfall rates it was, by definition, LIGHT rain. Some areas will get more rain tomorrow than what fell today. Back piece of energy is rather potent.

    1. That’s what the 12z Euro is showing. The GFS and CMC are much cooler. I suspect the Euro is probably over-amplifying everything in the long-range like it often does.

    2. One person’s single-digit forecast on day 10 based on a model run is hardly evidence to forecast an above normal temperature month.

      It’s best to get out of the habit of paying attention to individual numbers that far in advance.

      If you recall, 10-day forecasts had temperatures in the 30s for Halloween. Those forecasts were only about 35 degrees off. 😉

  34. 0.35 in the bucket for yesterday’s Rain, which was moderate here for a time for sure, but then mostly light as TK indicated.

    0.07 inch so far today.

  35. A decent slug of rain overnight .40” so far, that makes up for the 0.00” yesterday. Waiting for the flakes to mix in, nothing yet. I thought maybe with the heavier rain it would.

    1. 0.14 here. 0.34 yesterday. You may or may not see a flake as 850 mb temps still above freezing. Perhaps it will cool off in time before precip quits.

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