Tuesday Forecast

47 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
There’s enough uncertainty in guidance these days for me to not do the see-saw thing, but rather make very few changes unless I glaringly see something going wrong (and this will apply to the 6-10 & 11-15 day periods below as well). So summarizing, a slug of rain (some interior higher elevations mix/snow) this morning moves northward beyond the region leaving us with clouds that may break this afternoon. Storminess we’d been eyeing for midweek evolves too far offshore for direct impact other than maybe a brief rain/snow shower Wednesday from an inverted trough that reaches from it toward southern New England, a feature somewhat common to such systems. Thursday’s the nice day in terms of the most sunshine, while Friday’s the pick-of-the-week for milder air, but it comes with cloudiness and a threat of rain showers as low pressure passes north of the region. The cold front that trails the low introduces another November chill for Saturday, but this one will not be as sharp as the series we just went through.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain that may mix with or briefly turn to snow before ending over interior higher elevations, but no snow accumulation. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Still low confidence but keeping the same general idea of watching 1 or 2 low pressure areas passing south of the region November 24-25, possibly close enough, especially November 24, for brief impact with precipitation, and another low pressure area probably passing north of the region later in the period with some unsettled weather at least briefly possible in the November 27-28 window. Thanksgiving is November 28 so leading up to and including that date weather will be closely watched for any travel impact.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Also a low confidence forecast but will see a westerly air flow, ridge of high pressure in the southeastern US and plenty of cold air in Canada. This puts us in a zone where we can have brief storminess but quick temperatures swings, depending on the exact set-up. There’s one scenario that could give SNE its first regional snowfall of the season somewhere in the December 1-3 window. Can’t say more than that right now.

47 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!
    Your right we did hear that somewhere. Boy that farmer’s almanac never misses! 😉

    Good call as always.

  6. Jp Dave, if my memory serves me correctly, you have a new Davis weather station, vantage vue maybe? I just saw that Davis has put out their latest weather link data logger and software that allows you to view your station in real time. I have the older version that updates every minute. Sounds neat although the price tag is pretty steep at a hair over $200.00 new.

    2. I just looked this up:

      For my Vantage view, the data logger with ALL of the goodies including
      a moble app to access the data is $165.

      Sounds like a perfect Christmas gift. We shall see. 🙂

  7. That’s a good price. Was that through Davis or another source? Unless the one I need is unique to the VP 2. And yes a great suggestion for Santa for me also. 😉

  8. 0.24 in the Logan bucket for yesterday.

    Btw, is Gronk back by chance? The radio stations this morning were really playing up the possibility of his return. 🙂

      1. I saw two or three stories floating around the net about his return to the Patriots and the date.

        Even if this turns out to be true at some point (and he has until November 30th to decide) those stories were completely made up, false, lies.

        1. Gronk shouldn’t be teasing the fans like this. He knows good and well that Brady has to deal with a crappy offensive line and rookie TEs that can’t/don’t follow instructions. Until this month ends, the speculation of his return via the media will still be there. Gronk should announce up front once and for all.

          1. Thanks Vicki. I’m now starting to lose some respect for Gronk. In fact, a couple radio personalities this morning were discussing it and had similar thoughts as well. If the offense were clicking up and down the field consistently then Gronk’s cryptic tweets would be harmless since it would be obvious his services would not be needed, but with the offense clearly struggling (Brady himself is clearly frustrated in his interviews) he should announce a definite decision either way once and for all and STOP toying with Patriot Nation.

            1. I think it’s just gronk and i suspect he’s having some trouble not playing so take him with a grain of salt. I don’t tend to question what the pats themselves do such as trades, etc. To me it is hard to question decisions they make when they have the record they have.

  9. Thanks as always, TK…

    Former Red Sox announcer Ned Martin used to like to call these gray, drizzly days “grungy.”

    1. I heard on the radio this morning that typically November is the gloomiest month of any given year. Nothing unusual.

      1. The combination of average cloud cover and length of sunlight would make it qualify as at least one of the top 3 “gloomiest”, which is a subjective term. I happen to love November, regardless of the weather pattern.

        1. Because the precip is long gone. That was just a combination of thick cloud cover & low sun angle.

    1. Not surprised to see 1992 in that list. I’ve mentioned it several times lately and we had at lease one massive storm that December where, for the first time, framingham missed three day’s as opposed to one of school

      It has 11/17/92. We finalized purchase of daughters first pony 11/16/92 and I can say several days prior to the 17th were also extremely cold.

  15. HRRRv4 rocked the precip type and change to snow in eastern NY last night. Apparent big improvement over v3….

    @AliciaMBentley
    7h

    According to family and several meteorological friends currently in Albany, NY… looks like a p-type win for the HRRRv4!

    Forecast initialized at 18Z yesterday (Nov 18th) and valid at 12Z this morning (11/19)!

    HRRRv3 vs. HRRRv4 forecast comparisons:
    https://twitter.com/AliciaMBentley/status/1196786106114568192?s=20

    1. This season, by far, has contained the most number of named storms that were either not storms, or not even tropical, of any season I have been watching this stuff.

    2. This one actually seemed reasonable to me. Satellite showed a well defined center with plentiful convection, albeit displaced east of the center due to shear. But it will be another weak and short lived storm in a season that’s been filled with them, and while I think the naming of Sebastien can be justified there are at least a couple that I think could’ve been held off on this year. Overall this has been the lowest impact hurricane season for Atlantic land interests in several years.

      My *very early* thoughts are for an active 2020 hurricane season. We’ll revisit that in a few months 🙂

      1. This one is at least close. I’m not impressed by the loop I’m looking at. But I do agree priliminarily about 2020.

  18. For the balance of November, we may give a fair amount of that negative temperature departure back. Not all of it, but a significant chunk of it would not surprise me at all, which will then play havoc on all of the “cold November = cold winter” correlations, at least to some “degree” (pun intended). 😉

    We’re not going into an anomalously warm pattern by any stretch, but we’re going to lose the arctic connection for now. I fully believe it’s coming back, and significantly at times, in December.

    Oh yes, CFS seasonal model red flag: Massive inconsistency means that model is struggling. I will wait for some stability before paying any serious attention to it.

  19. Uncle NAM wants to snow some on us tomorrow being fringed by an ocean storm. 🙂
    Right, we’ll see about that. Cousin NAM 3KM says What??

  21. I was on channel 5, reading an article about the upcoming winter…..

    In it, I believe Judah Cohen is quoted that Martin Luther King weekend to President’s Day weekend might be the heart of the upcoming winter.

    Deep sigh ….

    I predict the heart of next summer will be mid July to mid August, that if you walk into water, you’ll get wet and that the North Pole is likely to be colder than the equator.

    Can’t wait for more insight ……

  22. Watching the TV weather forecast last night I heard two things that made me chuckle. I believe the met was Jeremy Reiner:

    1. “If you’re traveling – you know, getting a head start on the Thanksgiving holiday – here’s your forecast for tomorrow.” First thing I thought is, who’s getting a head start on their Thanksgiving holiday and driving to Grandma’s today, a full 9 days before Thanksgiving? Now, maybe if Grandma lives in Barrow, Alaska, and you’re driving. Then, you’d need to start some time this week.

    2. “The Pacific Northwest, well, geez, they’re looking at several weeks of unsettled weather, pretty much every day.” He’s right. It’s been bad in Seattle for a long time, and that ain’t changing any time soon. It did make me chuckle a bit. We think we have it bad if we have a closed off low and it rains for 3 days in a row. How about a 6 week stretch of rain. Mostly light rain, but still.

    1. I feel like lately that there are so many things on the plates of these people (numerous on air feeds, recording feeds for the station’s web page, sometimes doing extras for an affiliated station that also uses their news, answering and updating Facebook and Twitter) that they are literally winging it on air with maps that were loaded by interns, etc. .. I know this has been more than alluded to by some of the broadcasters that have appeared at the weather conferences in the last several years. I think some rather silly things tend to make it on the air because they are not even given the time to think out their presentation. Another case of tech that is supposed to make the job easier ending up making it more stressful.

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