1:17AM
Expect a windy and mostly dry day today behind departing low pressure to the east and approaching high pressure from the west. Enough upper level energy and cool air may still allow a few showers to form in the afternoon, but they will be isolated.
High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.
Updated Boston Area Forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially from mid through late afternoon. High 60-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 80.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 73.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 64.
Thanks TK ! The roller coaster temps sound good to me. Hope the below 32F temps make it to Marshfield Thursday night/Fri. Morning to get rid of some of the mosquitos. They have thrived in the recent mild, wet, humid regime. At the same time, more warm weather sounds good to me too for the weekend.
With the sun returning, the lower sun angle should be noticable. The sun does not even reach 43 degrees above the horizon at max height in Boston today and is decreasing by almost half a degree daily.
I agree Tom! As much as I love the chilly weather I won’t mind what this particular weekend has in store, coinciding with outdoor plans more like those you’d make in mid summer!
Just now, at 7AM, I’m noticing how much “less light” it is, compared to just a few weeks ago at the same time.
Thanks TK.
Any comments on something Trpoical down the line:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F05%2F2011+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=168&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
According to Henry Margusity the models show the moisture coming north for next week…flooding is possible. Just what the northeast doesn’t need.
I hate this “summer” type pattern we have been in since fall began, not to mention all the mosquitos as well. 🙁
oh dear – I have two roof leaks and can’t get hold of the roofer who “fixed” those after last winter’s ice dams. No more rain please – at least not heavy till I find someone.
Thank you TK for the update 🙂
06z run. Eh. If I see some consistency then we’ll talk. 🙂
Here is the latest AccuWeather Winter 2011-2012 Forecast for the Northeast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55833/more-monster-snowstorms-for-the.asp
Back from my trip and the forecast was dead on TK!! Everyone commented on how unusual the warmth was for the time of year. We were never below 70 for daytime highs and never a cloud in the sky.
Glad the weather was great for you, Hadi. Most importantly we’re glad you have safely returned! Welcome back!
Just had a quick shower pop through Framingham / Natick. Guess the forecast above was right on!
We had a monarch butterfly hatch out late yesterday, the kids were hoping to release it this afternoon but it is quite windy… Might have to wait until friday when it warms back up to the mid-60s…
TJ
The Framingham shower was a surprise to everyone in my house but me since I “read it here” 🙂 We had a lot of rainshine yesterday also!!!
BZ is reporting that ACCU weather is predicting “another brutally cold and snowy winter” but less snow than last year. I’m hoping for at least one blizzard in January. If all goes well we will be renting a house on the ocean in Humarock for the month and I’ve always wanted to be at the ocean for a snow storm. My husband thought that was a better choice than my other wish to spend the winter in the summit house of Mt Washington !!!
Awesome Vicki, hope that works out !! Winter weather by the ocean is rarely dull.
We usually put the glass in the screen windows on our porch by this time of year and had planned to this weekend but I’m thinking we’ll wait another week since the temps will be lovely through the weekend.
I keep watching for Coastal to find out what he came up with for glass options on his screen house since his windows/screens are identical to ours.
Don’t think the winter will be brutally cold. I think were going to be near to slightly above normal for temperatures. As for snowfall I am thinking between 40-45 inches.
The cold forecasts are based on climate indicies that are leaning heavily toward negative NAO more often than not during the 1st half of winter.
Giving credit where it was due, Ch 5 also mentioned the risk of a few pop up showers today. I’m not sure why most, including the NWS, did not. I used a combo of guidance (the disturbance and lobe of cold air was visible on the NAM’s forecast) and basic meteorology as I verified its initial position early this morning with the help of IR and moisture satellite loops. That immediately made it obvious (I thought, anyway) that we’d have advecting stratocumulus first, which would erode, then the sun would fire off diurnal cumulus, some of which would grow into the cold air above them enough to produce isolated showers. That was my basis for the “variably cloudy” vs. “mostly sunny” that you saw on NWS forecasts. Another thing that has to be taken into account is that there was plenty of leftover water at the surface in the form of wet grassland, forest, etc., for the sun to work on. That just aids cloud development once the sun goes to work on it.