Wednesday Forecast

89 Comments

6:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
An ocean storm will move northeastward passing east of New England today and tonight, but an inverted trough extending back over New England will allow for unsettled weather starting out as areas of fog and drizzle then becoming rain and snow showers. The most likely areas to see snow showers will be interior locations northwest of Boston to start, then progressing south and east with time through evening, but no accumulation of snow will occur from this activity save for brief dustings on unpaved surfaces especially this evening. Dry air arrives overnight and we’ll need to watch for some spotty ice on surfaces that don’t dry off. But that dry air means a nice day Thursday as high pressure dominates. With weather systems moving right along we’ll be seeing low pressure track north of the region Friday, bringing a warm front / cold front combo across the region. The warm front may result in a touch of light rain/sleet in the pre-dawn hours on Friday, and the cold front will bring a rain shower risk later Friday, with a nice shot of mild air between the two precipitation threats. Looking ahead to the weekend, the early call is for a split, with high pressure bringing chilly but fair weather Saturday, and a low pressure area bringing a shot at some precipitation Sunday – the details to be fine-tuned as it gets closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Snow/rain showers end evening, then clearing. Spotty black ice. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of light rain/sleet possible northern MA / southern NH overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible. Highs 35-40 north, 40-45 south. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Weather pattern for Thanksgiving Week expected to feature a west to east flow, storm track north of New England, with 2 cold frontal passages favoring late November 27 / early November 28 and again late November 29 early November 30. These would bring minor precipitation threats favoring rain showers. Much of the week expected to be dry with overall temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
As we end November and head into December the pattern is likely to resemble somebody shaking a rope with lots of progressive ridges and troughs wet to east across the US, so timing things will be very difficult so far in advance. But two things we may see heading into the early days of December include the risk of a somewhat widespread snowfall and a return to somewhat colder weather.

89 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Harvey had Dr. Cohen on with him last evening. Dr. Cohen was spouting his
    PV vortex etc. and said that his computer simulation indicated 59 inches of
    snow for Boston. So, there ya go. I am seeing many forecasts now for above-average snow. I don’t know what to make of things.

    Based on what I know now, I would shave off amounts from Dr. Cohen as he is always high and perhaps add some to TKs because he leans conservative on the Winter
    outlooks. I am thinking perhaps near or a little bit below average but not a snow
    starved Winter.

    TK, now might be a good time to review the rules for the annual WHW snow
    contest.

    Do we place out guesses on the contest page? What cities etc?

    Many thanks

    1. We can put them on the contest page so they can be easily found. I haven’t done anything with the blog set-up recently so the page is still there…

      But we need to come up with locations. Did you want to do a JP/Logan thing again, or just Logan and a few other selected locations?

      If we decide on one location, Logan will be the place.

      1. I’d be happy to try to keep up with things here. I am not dedicated enough for getting up in the middle of the night in the event of a changeover, but other than that, I should be able to do it again.
        That was fun. That is if others also want it.

        Many thanks

        1. Let’s do JP & Logan then for the official contest. It’ll be fun to compare. And it’s with the understanding that your measurements will be to the best of your ability. Let’s face it, they may be more accurate than Logan’s at this point in time. But that being what it is, we’ll go with the #’s that are presented to us from whoever measures there.

            1. I’ll do the JP vs LOGAN, the member predications is all yours. I wouldn’t want
              to take that away from you. 🙂

  3. It looks north country could do well with this Sundays System.

    I am hoping to take my daughter to Bretton Woods on Saturday. I’ve never skied there before and look forward to it.

    Will also be up there for Thanksgiving and a good snow storm up there this weekend would be perfect!

    1. They should get some measurable snow (light to moderate amounts) with the Sunday system unless it ends up evolving a bit further south which could leave them out of it.

      The system middle of next week will probably be too mild for snow there, but also be of rather short duration since I believe that low will be passing even north of them.

    2. I wasn’t introduced to bretton woods until well into my 20s. It may be one of my favorite ski areas. It has a long, gradual and wide run that I loved just doing over and over. Enjoy Coastal.

  4. **** SNOW CONTEST ****

    Put your seasonal guess to the nearest tenth of an inch (example 99.9 inches) on the Contest page. You can find a tab for that at the top menu. Locations will be Logan Airport and JP Dave’s Place (and no they do not serve beverages there). 😉

    Deadline: November 30!

  6. Just to add, Dr. Cohen forecasts a slow start to winter and he believes the “snowiest” period between MLK weekend and around President’s Day.

    1. Based on the Stratospheric warming in mid-Dec and resultant polar vortex
      disruption following about 2 weeks later. We shall see…
      He has forecast these events in the past, only not to happen.

      And cold does not necessarily translate into snow, but hey, one has to base
      a Winter Outlook on something. 🙂 🙂

      Frankly, I get the feeling that TK has analyzed the upcoming Winter a little
      more realistically than others, even if erring on the conservative side a bit.
      But then, TK has only shared some early ideas that even he said were
      subject to change with later information, so we don’t really know what
      TK’s official forecast is. 🙂

      A few more days and we will know.

  7. JPD – Can you post your snowfall amount from last year? I am curious about the difference between you and Logan.

    Logan = 27.4”

    1. Here are the closest guess from Last year.
      Remember actual:

      Logan 27.4
      JP 40.65

      Last Year’s closest guesses: I would say SSK was the closest, even though I mentioned WxWatcher before.

      Me
      Boston (Logan) 28 inches
      Boston (JP) 36 inches

      WxWatcher
      Logan: 34.3
      JP: 40.9

      SSK
      Boston 28.50
      Old salty 40

      Marjie
      Logan – 25.50
      JP – 35.00

      Longshot
      Logan: 30″
      JPD: 38″

      KANE
      Logan:33.8
      JP: 44.2

      TK
      Logan: 38.0
      JP: 44.0

  9. I placed this on the contest page, but thought I would share it here today.

    Good morning, I think I may be the first.

    I enjoyed looking at some guesses from last year. It looks like WxWatcher
    was the closest of all.

    Here is my entry for this upcoming Winter of 2019-2020

    Logan: 37.3 inches
    JP 42.6 inches

    I fear I am destined to fail.
    If I go high, results will be low.
    If I go low, results will be high.
    Thus, factoring in all that I know to date, I took the middle ground.

  11. Thank you TK! Happy to see a decent forecast for the Plymouth Thanksgiving parade on Saturday. Going to be a fantastic day if anyone can make it down here! Golden Knights Parachute team has a couple of jumps planned for the day, food festival, and of course the amazing parade. Channel 5 is filming this year and will be airing a special at 12:30 on Thanksgiving Day. Next year they will be broadcasting live.

      1. Next year’s parade should be a showstopper, Sue. Plymouth’s 400!

        I will be down and then we can all head to JP Dave’s Place for a pop! 🙂

        1. The parade next year will definitely be the highlight of the 400th celebration. I have been somewhat involved with the parade organizers as my bank provides a good amount of volunteers to carry banners for the sponsors. There are some big things being planned for next year and it will be quite the event!

    1. Unbelievable. Thanks for sharing this, Vicki.
      I cannot image what his wife and children are going through. They were supposed to go Disney on the day of his passing. And, with the holidays coming soon…

      This all has to be so draining on the WFD, too. Yet, they continue doing their job.

  16. The medium-range forecast for Thanksgiving is looking pretty nice for the morning high school football games.

  17. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Not sure if you wanted to mix it up this year and add a third more interior location to the snow contest, but I keep anal track of my snow events and as a trained spotter, I report all my measurements to the NWS. I take all the measurements on my back wooden deck which is out of the sun. So it’s no extra burden on me to report my totals here! (I usually do anyway).

    My house in Coventry is in Tolland Co (NC/NE CT) and at 675′ elevation. (I have received no accumulating snow yet this year FYI).

    Or you can keep it simple with the two locations. Just thought I would offer it up!

  20. Captain F… I live about 2 miles from that Red Robin. I drove by it this morning to see the assortment of news vans in the parking lot of course.

  21. Sue… there is a remote possibility that I would make it down to Plymouth for that parade but because of my outdoor decorations schedule with my son I probably won’t end up getting there. the parade is going to be on the channel 5 app live and as you mentioned broadcast on Thanksgiving day so I will see it one way or another.

    1. Wish you could be here TK as I know you would thoroughly enjoy it. I normally walk in the parade but this year I have been promoted to “spacing” police to make sure everyone is lining up properly and keeping up. 🙂 Now that channel 5 is involved they are trying to make this more of a “production” than just a parade. Hoping to chat with Cindy Fitzgibbons!

        1. The parade organizers signed a 3-year commitment with channel 5 to film and broadcast the parade. This year they are live streaming on their Facebook page and next year will begin broadcasting live on the air. So this year is kind of our dress rehearsal for the big leagues next year. There will also be the special that will be aired on Thanksgiving at 12:30. The morning team is our parade marshals and will be on their own float.

  22. Vicki thank you so very much for posting that tribute, it was a well done and fitting tribute! I shared it with my brother. He ended up working a 24 hour shift covering one of the stations while the Worcester personnel attended the services, it was part of a multi town effort to supply a group and apparatus to cover all the stations.

    1. Deepest thanks and gratitude to your brother and to your whole family. With a son in law enforcement I know first hand what our amazing first responders face and the worry that their families share.

      And it is truly one big family. Sutton has also been covering in Worcester

  24. Thank you, TK.

    Active pattern, indeed, as the lows zip on by with very brief interludes of weak high pressure areas.

    The gloominess is getting to me a little. I lit some candles last night to make my place look more festive, or medieval. I do understand festivals of lights as pagan and now (quasi) religious rituals. Humans need light to thrive and function well. However much I like fall and winter, the limited daylight and at times dreary conditions (peaking in November and March) that make it even darker are not easy to deal with.

    1. At least we are back on Standard (normal) time and in sync with Mother Nature. 🙂

      Be careful of those candles! It seems every day there is a major fire somewhere as “Breaking News” via tv or radio. Shouldn’t be happening so often in the 21st century.

  25. Winter 2019-2020 forecast….

    I have looked at several of the indices again and also read a number of winter forecasts posted thus far from reputable mets for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Here are my takeaways and thoughts.

    1. Neutral ENSO – No defined El Nino or La Nina. Less active but NOT non-existent subtropical jet.

    2. Siberian and Canadian snow cover – widespread. Should be ample cold air supply. Also points to a higher likelihood of a -AO which supports cold in the northern US

    3. SST warming event upcoming could displace the PV and provide the mechanism to send colder air down here come mid January and beyond.

    4. Warm waters in the North Pacific to promote +PNA and ridging in the west and trough/colder air in the eastern 2/3 of the US.

    5. Warmer than normal waters still in the N Atlantic. This could result in some Greenland blocking (-NAO) which further supports wedging of cold air into the NE and sometimes east coast storminess. -NAO is something we haven’t seen much of in the past few years.

    6. Solar minimum – we are at the lowest in a very long time. This can further support more cooling.

    7. MJO – always a wildcard but +IOD and suppressed convection in the eastern Indian Ocean could support the colder phases of the MJO at least the first part of the winter.

    Put all this together and here’s what I think:

    1. December and first half of January – rollercoaster jetstream, cold shots mixed with milder spells, a few snow events and several mix/rain events with storm track varying (some west, some east of us), near to below normal snow

    2. Later January into Feb and March – more sustained cold spells and stormier, above normal snow, more storms tracking S/E of us.

    3. With less active subtropical jet, I’d expect more clippers and moisture starved northern stream systems, but any of them tracking over the Ohio Valley would have the potential to redevelop off the Mid-Atlantic and track NE, giving us some decent coastal snowstorms (your 4-8′ and 6-12″ type storms).

    4. Introduce some blocking and I could see one of these systems with more explosive development and slower movement, resulting in the chance for a bigger storm (12-18″+?)

    Overall, I am thinking above normal snow (but not MUCH above normal) for SNE….

    45-55″ Boston and Hartford (45″ at Logan and 55″ at JP)
    65-75″ Worcester
    65″ Coventry

    We’ll see 🙂

    1. The one frustrating factor around here is that no matter how many good cold shots, we still manage plenty of rain events. I just don’t get it.

      1. There is more cold air to work with this year. This is where I think this winter is going to differ from last year. Less in the way of cutters and inside runners as we get into the heart of winter.

      2. That is with active southern jet. Like last year. It’s not an automatic. We had a string of winters around 1980 that were cold & dry. And others scattered here and there.

      1. I don’t think it is overly bold given the indicators out there and the fact that the average snow in Boston and BDL is in the 43-44″ range. I have yet to find a winter forecast issued for the NE US so far that predicts a below normal winter for snow. Of course….TK could put an end to that. But I would not be surprised if even he went for normal snow this year when all is said and done 🙂

  26. Just came in…
    I can tell you that there are occasional snowflakes mixed in with the rain
    in JP, Roslindale and W. Roxbury. Can readily be observed as they strike
    the windshield.

  27. TK – Will you be posting your personal Winter Outlook before the contest deadline? I would like something to compare with other forecasts.

    2. It’s raining in downtown Flagstaff at 7,000, but up on the mountain
      at 9,500 feet it is snow.

      Coordinates of Flagstaff (downtown)
      35.1983° N, 111.6513° W

      The mountain is about 12 miles North of downtown.

        1. I put my guesses on the contest page.

          The above was my snow totals ALREADY for this season,
          as in so far this season. 🙂 🙂

          1. I find it interesting that you only predict a 5-inch difference. I believe that darn Boston Harbor temp will be the wildcard. You could almost take a nice relaxing bath in it last year. I would be curious as to how far from normal it is currently.

  30. Sue: Since the weather is expected to be very nice for the parade on Saturday, I hope very similar conditions occur on Thanksgiving Day itself. It might be puzzling for some watching on Ch. 5 at 12:30 and next Thursday has today’s gloom…or a blizzard. 😉

    Also, am I to understand that next year and beyond the parade will be broadcast on Ch. 5 live on Thanksgiving Day itself? If so I am looking forward to it even more. 🙂

    1. The parade is always the Saturday before Thanksgiving so it would be broadcast live that day, not on Thanksgiving.

    1. Yes, mainly well after midnight, but if the NL’s get this far, they will be very low to the horizon.

  32. Philip,
    current ocean temp (boston buoy 16 nm east of boston)
    is 50.9 degrees.
    ave is 49.1
    thus it is 1.8 degrees above average.

  34. The weekend setup is actually turning into one that could produce decent QPF over SNE. However, the cold is not there for snow. Maybe for ski country if a more northern track holds.

    1. Are we going to be having mostly these cold rain events this upcoming winter while NNE gets all the white gold like last year? 🙁

      1. I’m kind of done with the cold rain events, as you aptly describe them, Philip. Man, I’m much colder today after doing my errands in the neighborhood than I was Saturday or last Wednesday. Cold rain just chills to the bone.

      2. No. I already said this winter’s pattern is not going to be like last winter’s. Those rain events were due mainly to a very active subtropical jet stream. We have a semi-active southern jet right now (not all winter though). These types of events in November are quite normal.

  36. JPD. I finished the 11 seasons of heartland and am having withdrawals. I started friends from season 1 again.

    1. I forgot. Horsey daughter is watching heartland with her two kids and her husband. They love it and say thank you

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