Sunday Forecast

114 Comments

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
A Sunday soaker as low pressure tracks across the South Coast later today and dumps a good amount of moisture on the region in the form of rain as it intensifies fairly rapidly and maxes out as it passes by. But it’s moving right along and the 2 days that follow will be very nice by late November standards, governed by high pressure with fair and mild conditions, and good for pre-Thanksgiving shopping/travel as well as just regular commuting on those days. I must note, importantly, that as the sky clears during the pre-dawn hours of Monday and winds diminish enough in some areas, a rapid cool-down to near freezing air temperature very well could mean below freezing air right at ground level, resulting in the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces away from the immediate coast or in warmer urban locatoins, so be on the look-out for that if venturing out early in the day Monday. Wednesday, “the big travel day”, won’t be as nice, weather-wise, as a vigorous low pressure area passes north of the region and drags its warm front / cold front combination through the region with some periods of wet weather, but coming with mild conditions here in southeastern New England, snow will not be an issue whatsoever. So what about the holiday itself on Thursday? Well remember last Thanksgiving? Yeah, temperatures in the teens to around 20, wind chills below zero, bright ineffective sunshine? The weather map will actually look somewhat similar to that this time too, but without the intense core of Arctic air we saw then, so it looks like a breezy, bright, more typically chilly late November day, quite perfect for Thanksgiving if you ask me, although it will be on the nippy side for football, and we will have wind chill, but it won’t nearly match that of 2018. Onto the forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Steady light rain, at times moderate rain, and possibly periods of heavy rain. Areas of fog. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior areas and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts. Minor coastal flooding in prone areas at high tide times.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, some drizzle and fog lingering. Clearing overnight with areas of black ice forming. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Brief light rain possible pre-dawn. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
“When Black Friday comes” (kudos if you get this reference) expect fair, breezy, cool weather, and much the same for the final day of November, as low pressure hangs out in the Canadian Maritimes for a couple days before finally moving east. Today we’re seeing a larger spread in medium range guidance as to what happens in the first few days of December, with one of the major models bringing a wet weather system (mostly rain, maybe some mix/snow at least nearby) for December 1 then a turn to windy/colder weather after that with maybe a few snow flurries, while another major model evolves the situation more slowly, with a drier December 1, mainly rain event December 2, and dry or a few snow flurries with wind and cold for December 3. My current thoughts are somewhere between this, with a leaning toward the slower solution.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Large scale pattern likely features high pressure ridge Southeast US and fast flowing jet stream across the north. For New England, this pattern can feature brief unsettled periods unless a front strings out west-to-east along the flow. Leaning toward shorter impact systems and quick temperatures swings at this time, leaning to the colder side of normal, basically a clipper type pattern. This pattern can, if timing is right, start to put some snow on the ground, but usually in small increments.

114 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Not one tv met has yet mentioned the black ice possibility for early Monday. I’ll keep a heads up for my commute (5-7AM) though. Hopefully it doesn’t happen as much of it involves walking.

  3. Thank you TK! What a fantastic day it was in Plymouth yesterday. Perfect fall weather and an amazing parade. The crowd was huge so I can only imagine what next year will bring.

      1. The full parade is available on the WCVB app. I was going to check to see if their regular web page had it..

  7. Thanks TK.

    Yesterday’s prediction of thunder and thundersnow has already verified here in the mid-Atlantic. Will probably extend to SNE later. Explosive cyclogenesis in progress, beautiful to watch!

  12. Brady has been playing and has right elbow injury now on the injury report. So his O-Line needs to get better ASAP or we could see a game or more without him if he gets anymore injured.

  13. Philip:

    Lightning strikes, but I can’t seem to post the link.
    NWS just posted a Special Marine Warning for that year.

    1. At 1154 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 nm southeast
      of The Coastal Waters South Of Marthas Vineyard, moving north at 35
      knots.

      HAZARD…Wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail.

      SOURCE…Radar.

      IMPACT…Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
      suddenly higher waves.

      * Locations impacted include…
      Muskeget Channel, Madaket Harbor, Nantucket Sound, Monomoy Point,
      Nantucket Shoals Buoy and Point Gammon.

  14. Just came in. It is Yucky Wet out there with moderate rain.
    We just now hit 1 inch on the level here in JP.

    And not for nothing and I am not saying it is correct, but the latest HRRR
    has a brief flip to snow all the way to the coast this evening as the low pulls away.

    https://imgur.com/a/8OJK7Qi

    1. From NWS

      As mid level
      low intensifies and comma head impacts the region, thermal
      profiles will cool via diabatic processes.

      NWS only talking about snow in higher terrain, but latest HRRR thinks that
      this diabatic cooling process may be sufficient to have a Brief change to snow
      right to the coast. We shall see. I’ll be watching for sure.

      1. NOT saying this will happen, but I have seen in the past
        that this process sometimes takes place Rapidly (MUCH faster than forecast). Let’ see what shakes out this afternoon. Here’s hoping for a ground whitening burst of snow! 🙂

        Wouldn’t it be great IF it happened in Foxboro sometime
        during the 2nd half! 🙂 🙂 🙂

        Now the next HRRR will have the flip go POOF, no doubt.

  18. Just in from a grocery store run. Moderate to heavy rain that feels more like melted ice. Well, I suppose technically any water could be considered that. We are at 1.07

  19. Gale Warning just upgraded to Storm Warning for the eastern coast of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands:

    STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
    MONDAY…

    The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Storm
    Warning, which is in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
    Monday. The Gale Warning is no longer in effect.

    * WINDS AND SEAS…Northwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to
    50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A Storm Warning means winds of 48 to 63 knots are imminent or
    occurring. Recreational boaters should remain in port, or take
    shelter until winds and waves subside. Commercial vessels should
    prepare for very strong winds and dangerous sea conditions, and
    consider remaining in port or taking shelter in port until winds
    and waves subside.

  23. Just had flash of lighting and loud crack of thunder here in Andover. Sounded awesome with the cooler air!

  25. Temp down to 35 according to my AcuRite. Meatloaf in the oven. Would love to see some snow flying in the air as well as in Foxboro for the game.

  27. A small lull here in Swampscott as we are sort of in a hole at the moment. The game time weather looks to be ugly in Foxboro,

      1. Hi guys. Yeah, been lurking around. It’s that time of year to come out and play! Not to worry, I’ll be complaining about winter in about 60 days

  34. I SEE SQUADRONS of Cutters heading our way, however, a few of them show
    signs of funky redevelopment。 We’ll have to wait and see, but perhaps all may not be lost.

  35. Glass barometer is dripping away, indicating very low pressure.

    Pats defense looks fine. But, offense … Other than the surprise runs by Michel, it’s been meager. Brady actually looks vulnerable. I’m not using the word cliff, because I think his deterioration is more gradual. But, it’s there. Accuracy is off. Awareness is off. All season, really. But very noticeable in the past 4 weeks.

    1. We will have to agree to disagree. Sports radio has said that for days. I talked to my SIL earlier.

      Brady has no weapons. His run is struggling some this year but it’s never been great. 15 and 16 are starting to look positive.

  36. Plenty of rain for the game based on the evolution! No flakes for Foxboro. As stated this is a rain event. Simply too warm for snow. My brother wouldn’t have minded seeing heavy snow but maybe not when it was time to exit. 😉

    1. They really do a great job maintaining that field. I realize it’s all modern drainage systems, but still.

  37. I did see some flakes at my office early this afternoon. No accumulation as temperatures were well into the mid 30s, but it was a bit of a surprise to see them.

    1. And this snow after a whopping 2.71” of rain today! Way more than I expected.

      Now up to 4.06” on the month and securing yet another month of above normal precip.

  40. Mark. Radar seems to be moving the blob of precip over you away from us. Do ya think you can do anything to push it this way?

  42. Sigh. I was torn today, JJ. I always want my Pats to win…well with rare exception…but felt badly for your cowboys. They sure are an impressive team

    1. Well, I was wrong again. The only part I got right was the 13 points.

      I was impressed again by the Patriots’ defense. To hold Cooper to no catches is impressive. They also made Prescott look relatively feeble. They’re the real deal.

  43. Cowboys lost the game due to coaching, miscues, and penalties. 4th and 7 at the Patriots 13 why are we kicking a field goal down 13-6?

  44. Jason Garrett will be gone at the end of the year if they don’t make the NFC Championship. I like Jason Garrett as a person but not a coach if you want your team to win a championship.

  45. 2.97” of rain and melted snow the final total…quite impressive! 4.32” on November.

    Precip ended as light rain when the intensity decreased and temp now back up to 34. We briefly bottomed out at 32 in the heavy snow. Secondary roads are still slushy.

  48. Mark, we can add your location for snow contest if you’d like. It may be fun to have an interior location we also know accurate data will come from. 🙂 We can leave that as an option for those who want to try it as well.

    1. OK sounds good!

      Dave, perhaps you can add another column to your spreadsheet?

      0.5″ of snow last night by the way after the 2.97″ of rain. It was all basically melted by midnight.

    1. Yup. It’s on. New forecast up shortly.

      Winter forecast still in progress. Will post that as soon as it’s done.

      2. Yes, and we are siked!

        I’m heading up Wednesday Morning with my two oldest. We hope to ski Wildcat if pole cat trail is open for the kids, if not its back to Bretton Woods.

        Probably ski Wed, Thur, Fri and Sat.

          1. I only skied there once this past Saturday. It was good but not totally sold on it yet. We only went there for the green trail for my daughter. We love wildcat but had limited trails this weekend.

  50. I heard on Twitter and TMZ that the winter forecast is slightly delayed because TK is feverishly rewriting portions previously written to make them colder and snowier.

  51. Good morning,

    Last I checked last evening I had 1.59 inches in the bucket. I was running late this morning, so didn’t even check it.

    Looking forward to TK’s Winter outlook.

    I think channel 4’s outlook is tonight at 11??? I think.

  52. Can’t get the parade video to play. There is one video that works but I had to chuckle a bit that it opened with a Cambridge savings bank ad

  53. JJ, I was rooting against your Cowboys yesterday, but I’ll be rooting for them Thursday to beat Buffalo. Of the 3 games Thursday, this looks to be the best one.

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