Monday Forecast

87 Comments

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-29)
High pressure builds in today which will be a fair and “November nice” day, a little cool but not bad. This high slips off to the east Tuesday, another nice but even milder day in which many locations may reach or slightly exceed 50 for high temperatures. These are both good days for travel and errands and just regular commutes in the region, at least in terms of weather. We don’t go 3 for 3 however, as Wednesday will be an unsettled, albeit mild day, as a mature low pressure area traveling through the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley pushes a frontal system across the region. This front, in its occlusion stage, will start to spawn a new low pressure area just as it passes offshore, and while this won’t make the day any stormier, it will serve to pull down some chilly and dry air in time for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There may be enough cold air aloft for some passing clouds and even a brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow, but the day will be dry otherwise, just breezy and chilly, so you’ll want to keep that in mind for football game and local travel. Thursday night / early Friday, for those venturing back from holiday visits or venturing out to join the ranks of shoppers in the dark of night, it’ll be on the cold side, and still rather breezy, so dress for it. It will not be as brutally cold as last year was, however. The daytime hours of Friday will be dry and chilly as well, as we’ll be in a northerly air flow as the new low that went offshore later Wednesday will still be out there in large, mean form, just too far east to have any direct impact on this area besides a gusty breeze.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Brief light rain possible pre-dawn. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly sunny. Brief light rain/snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Dry, breezy, cool November 30 as a northwesterly air flow hangs on for at least part of the day. And then when December comes, forecast confidence plunges. Today we still have 3 different solutions from 3 major models as to the evolution of an upcoming storm threat to start off the new month. And please don’t take the phrase “storm threat” as “uh-oh, here comes a big storm”. It probably won’t be that powerful a system, but it may take a while to evolve and occur, with the details not really decipherable until we get a little closer. For now, I am staying with yesterday’s idea of a drawn out, multi-stage evolution, which would result in cloudiness arriving with a light precipitation threat eventually for December 1, milder air taking over with a rain threat for December 2, then a switch to windy, colder, drier weather behind the departing system December 3-4. That’s the general idea for now, but it’s subject to change for sure.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
No changes to this part of the outlook. Looking for lack of subtropical jet stream overall with mean ridge position between the US Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, fast flowing polar jet stream to the north. Will have to watch the boundary between in case unsettled weather tries to string out along it and impact this area longer. Otherwise most systems are quick moving and relatively minor with temperature swings rather frequent.

87 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Still wrestling with the 2nd half of the winter forecast. Easily the most difficult of the last 3. If I’m wrong about the subtropical jet this thing will explode badly in my face.

    1. Meaning you want to got with a more inactive sub jet and thus less snow, but
      if more active than you anticipate, we could get more snow.
      Is that the correct interpretation of what you said? Curious.

      Dying to see your forecast and most especially the numbers. 🙂

      1. Pretty much. Most factors point to less southern jet stream, but you know it only takes a couple of systems to do “damage” to a forecast. That’s why long term precipitation forecasts are almost pointless to even attempt.

        Temperatures are not much easier to forecast, but they are easier than precipitation.

        I may not get this worked out in my head until sometime tonight, but as soon as I do, the outlook will be posted. It’s 75% written.

        1. Don’t cheat and be influenced by Channel 4’s outlook tonight. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          Just kidding.

          Perhaps you won’t go as low as I thought and just maybe you’ll come in somewhere around average?

          1. I had forgotten they were even doing that tonight… I’ll be done writing mine (I hope) by then.

            I’m also decorating for Christmas a bit early with Nate because of the late Thanksgiving date and the tradition of putting everything on by December 1. So he and I are spending most of today & tomorrow working on outside stuff. Inside stuff is getting done in increments with the 2 rooms most used for Thanksgiving being saved for Friday & Saturday. Should leave us all set to go for 12-1!

      2. I have also talked to a couple of longer range forecasters in the business (can’t mention them by name on the blog) and they are not so convinced that a lot of the long range forecasts we’ve seen from TV outlets so far are going to verify, and present a compelling set of reasons why. To say these well-respected forecasters don’t influence me would be a lie. 🙂

  6. I need all of Saturday dry . Took a vacation day Friday as this is a busy weekend for me & would be a bonus if Sunday is dry as well as I just got a call for an estimate

  9. The problem is so many winter outlooks come out so early and are presented as if they are locks .. I’m not going to directly fault anybody for this, it’s just the way it’s done. And then we all know what media does when it gets hold of things for headlines…

    This is not so easy a forecast.

    2. Ahhh the old catch 22. People ask for a winter outlook…or beg. Then when the Mets give them what they want, they somehow find fault because of course a forecast months out would be 100%. Gee, I wonder who holds the blame.

      1. The Holidays seem to be coming so fast this year it’s crazy . Did 106.7 start there Xmas marathon as it was on yesterday but I just could not do yet . I will play it Thursday Am & light my traditional Frazier fur yankee candle . For years on the night before thanksgiving I bring my wife home a big kissing ball as it was her mom’s favorite & I hang it on my farmers porch

        1. Yes, they started on thursday or Friday, I believe.
          I Detest that they do that! I don’t mind Christmas Music
          as we get closer to Christmas, but in November?
          Give me a break.

  13. I have only seen snow accumulations once like what the 12z GFS is showing in December once in my life and that was back in 2003. I believe parts of the North Shore got close to 30 inches. For Boston I believe that storm delivered a top 5 December snowstorm.

    1. I can remember some pretty big December snow storms.
      There was a douzy on 12/12-12/13? I believe in 1960. It was a powder blizzard.
      I think Boston received 14 inches.

      I can remember one in the 70s sometime where Boston got 18 inches.

      There are many more, I just can’t remember them all.

      1. Well it did have a ridiculous snow output a day or so for November 7th rain event and so did the ECMWF, but for about 4 days.

        1. Last night’s Euro presented a far more realistic outcome, so perhaps the Euro is closer to the final outcome than
          the GFS is. 🙂

          Either way, good bad or indifferent, I look forward
          to viewing whatever the Euro spits out.

  14. Thank you, TK.

    SSK, you’re right. July 4th seems like yesterday. Here we are, at the beginning of the holiday season. I believe it’s age. The years are zipping by. Too fast. If I’m lucky I’ll have another 25-30 years to live. And, that will go by just like that.

    JJ, Garrett is a nice person. And, I think nice guys don’t always finish last. However, I don’t know of a successful NFL coach who is a nice guy. In fact, the same applies in the college ranks.

    I might have already given my winter outlook a month ago. Can’t recall what I said. In any case, I predict slightly above normal temps on average. No sustained cold. 32.3 inches of snow in Back Bay; 29.8 inches at Logan; 36.1 inches at Dave’s house in JP; 48.2 inches at Vicki’s; 39.2 inches at TK’s; 18.9 inches at Tom’s and Sue’s; 39.4 inches at Mark’s; 56.2 inches at JMA’s (I believe he lives near Pittsfield).

    1. Hi Joshua –

      I live in Amherst about 50 miles east of Pittsfield. In the valley we only average about 40″ of snowfall. We are frequently victims / beneficiaries of the shadow.

  16. JpDave to go along with the big December snowstorms you mentioned Post Christmas Blizzard in 210.
    Joshua Jason Garrett needs to be fired at the end of the season. He can’t get this team over the hump and he has been here this entire decade and no NFC Championship game appearances.

  17. Here is one of key things to keep in mind about long range forecasting, particularly for the media and for pay private entities. No season gets eye balls and attention like the winter. If you predict a dull season then people tune out or don’t read. It pays to go cold and snowy because it garners headlines and repeat traffic and if it doesn’t materialize, no big deal. “mother nature had a mind of her own, we were just on the line between rain and snow, cold and warm, or what a difference 100 miles or 1000 feet in elevation made.” Sound familiar?

    There is a lot of money in this and all of these people have jobs to keep, mortgages to pay, families to support, etc. It is why I find myself less angry at the individual TV Mets and there incessant “extreme weather warning days” or talking up 2″ of snow at 1000′ feet. They are doing the job there bosses want them to and like it or not we all have bosses and very few people can say “take this job and shove it”

    1. Love love love love love this comment. One reason I react as strongly as I do when Mets are criticized and when one their forecast is misstated.

      1. My frustration is generally with the media industry, not the individuals who deliver the information. There are a few who just refuse to admit forecasting error, or won’t hear any counterpoint, which is different than hype, so I don’t mind giving a those few individuals grief.

        1. Good points. Media has always used headlines as a catch. I get that to an extent. And a listener or viewer has multiple media sources. Shame on the individual who doesn’t take advantage…..from politics to weather I have more problem with a corporate America that insists the Mets get the forecast out first and with the greatest catch words.

    2. Very well said and most interesting.
      Thus, I will be watching with interest tonight (I think tonight) when Eric presents his Winter outlook. Wonder if you goes cold and snowy as well?

  19. JMA,

    Any chance you will present your thoughts on the upcoming Winter?
    Adds yet another perspective for us to mull over.

    Many thanks

  20. A few quick thoughts –

    December is key. If we could get one or two winter weather events in here 12/1-12/15 that would help those looking for higher seasonal snow totals. But I still lean towards separate zonal flow with up and down temps with progressive systems.

    I have moderate confidence that the back-loaded idea of winter is not going to come to fruition.

    FYI – I am a horrendous seasonal forecaster. Diagnosing model error, event specific synoptic forecasting, I can hold my own. Each of you are probably better seasonal forecasters than me.

  21. Great comment, JMA!

    I know Amherst well. My sister went to Smith College in Northampton, which is, I think, west of Amherst. In the late 70s we used to get in the old station wagon and visit her at college at least 4 times a year. We took the back roads at a certain point (my mother was not fond of highways or efficiency!) and meandered around the towns of Amherst, Holyoke, Goshen (is that a town?), and Northampton. One thing I do remember is that it was almost always significantly colder in that region than Brookline (where we lived then). And, whatever snow fell during the winter tended to stick around there, whereas in Brookline it turned to slush and then completely melted away. The exceptions to the rule were the 2 blizzards of `78 (January and February) which hit Brookline harder western Massachusetts. And, the snow stuck around a long time (at least after the February storm; though not the January storm as I recall – my memory could be off).

  22. As much as I’d love to see that GFS run verify, I don’t physically see how that run can happen. Primary low north of Detroit spawns a secondary low south of LI, and then that low basically explodes into a blizzard as it temporarily stalls south of us.

    We do have some blocking in place this coming weekend with -NAO which adds some intrigue for a snow event but that “bomb” scenario seems out there.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

    1. The turkey day disturbance on the 12z euro looks to follow a similar path as the 12Z gfs disturbance for this weekend.

  24. I’ve noticed over the years that even when we get decent snows early-mid December, the snow almost always melts long before Christmas itself. Only 1995 comes to mind when the snow stayed on the ground through the end of the year into the next (1996). A true “White Christmas” that was. 🙂

      1. Yes, but the idea of a primary storm tracking west of us and redeveloping into a “Nor’easter” coastal storm is there like the GFS. Details will work themselves out.

        Important thing is that the models are seeing a strong block that should prevent this thing from cutting west of us.

      2. Even if that solution verifies verbatim….interior areas see significant snow and even most of SNE right down to the coast have the potential for the first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season.

  27. JMA… That’s exactly what I meant when I said “that’s just how it’s done”. The general public should be smart enough to know this. Should be. Some are. Some? Eh…

    And as always I appreciate your thoughts.

    For about a week I’ve been having this vision of shoveling snow on December 2.

  31. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    Replying to
    @ryanhanrahan

    Cutter with transfer probably means go interior for snow but looks better than yesterday’s

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    15m

    Replying to
    @ericfisher

    Yeah agreed. Not a great high to the north.

    Eric Fisher
    14m
    More marginal thermals par for the course this early in the season

      1. Sorry, I thought he was replying to you and not Ryan.
        However, he usually will respond to a public tweet. He has
        answered many of mine. 🙂

        1. Eric is very good at communication with anybody who wants to ask questions or discuss the subject at hand.

  35. The Winter Forecast 2019-2020 post is now up. I hated my first version and basically re-wrote it between last evening and early this morning. It’s the same forecast, just totally re-worded. Please let me know if you find any errors!

    Working on a quick daily blog update now which will be up by about 8AM.

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