Dry Days, Frost, & Record Warmth

61 Comments

4:45PM

The discussion below is an update of the previous one.

High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny – some fast-moving fair-weather clouds will pop up late morning through early afternoon. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 82.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 63.

61 thoughts on “Dry Days, Frost, & Record Warmth”

    1. Also, JMHO but I would not focus too much on the “monster” snowstorms part. I am now beginning to get some snowfall numbers in mind…more later this month. 🙂

        1. John I have a non weather question and hope you see this and don’t mind my asking. My daughter just discovered she has grubs. I told her you’d recommended a product for us to use but can remember who makes it. Also do you think they should treat now and plant in spring or wait to spring to treat. Thank you 🙂

          1. If she can see grubs she could put some down now. The ground is going to be getting colder, so those little things will be taking cover and going deep down. I like bayer products. So if she can see them, she could put some down. But the cheapest she can find. Next season treat right away with a bayer product. Next season treat twice. Ask me anything anytime.

  2. The NW wind is really howling right now and the cool, dry air feels excellent.

    I know its one model run, but if the 12z GFS is correct, then the air above New England through October 20th is mild to warm, with temps somewhere between 10 to 18 Celcius at 850mb throughout most of the upcoming 15 day period starting Friday.

    1. Tom…I am not surprised given the 14-day CPC outlook for above normal temps. Most forecasts I have seen including TK’s have been for warm temps for October. Given that, I am somewhat surprised that frost is likely for most (except cities like Boston) already.

      1. Hi Philip.

        It will be interesting to see how close to the coast a frost gets Thursday Night/Fri morning and how close to 40F Logan gets.

      2. Even warm Autumn regimes produce frost threats. All it takes is one chilly airmass and one big high pressure area overhead.

  3. The NWS in their evening’s discussion has already confirmed rain for late next week. I suppose get ready for another weekend “washout” as well…NEXT weekend, of course.

    🙁

    1. Hey Jimmy…I agree with them as well. I do believe, however, that the upcoming winter should still satisfy snow lovers and perhaps “haters” as well.

      I also expect a snowfall bonanza for much of NNE! 🙂

  6. Keep an eye for the weekend of the 21st. That’s the weekend I am go camping in Keene.

    Vicki, I will email you a picture when the windows are in. I usually put install them in early November.

    I don’t see why people are waiting to throw out their winter predictions. This is a troll free zone and would not be subjected to any persicution. I understand the entire “not enough info” or “waiting for more info” argument but come on its for fun throw them out there. We can lock them in December 1st which is after Barry issues his. We can keep track as we did with 90 degree days. By the way can keep record of those predictions?

    1. Oh and my predition is between 75 snd 85 at Logan. Front end load as TK mentioned in late August. We missing the big ones late winter.

      1. 24 to 29 inches, maybe less. Kimmirut, Canada already has some snowcover and its had highs less than 35F the last several days. Northeast Canada and Greenland are cold because the NAO is positive. I’m going to chance it and say this teleconnection stays this way most of the winter, impacting the storm track in the US with very few storms going south of New England. Most storms tracking over New England or west of the region.

        1. If you get your prediction right I will buy you anything you want at the mug. Is it likely we could have a winter
          with that little snow. All I want for christmas is a snowless winter. TK will boot me from here for saying that.

          2. Yum !! Of course, this guarantees my predicted amt will have fallen by Dec 15th. 🙂

            Vicki, dont worry !! The coast in January will not disappoint you. Just know when the full moon and new moon tides are and hope for no winter type coastal storms during those few days. 🙂

          3. You would never be booted by expressing your desire for a snowless winter. Unfortunately you live in the wrong part of the country to have that wish granted. 😉

    3. Hi coastal. How do you put them in. We have glass and use an inch wide piece of wood screwed in to hold them but I wondered if you have a better plan. Can you send to cablars@aol.com. I don’t really use the gmail address much. Thanks

      1. I use the same method. 3/4 inch cedar with two screws each. I keep the top piece in and remove the sides and bottom. I have 13 windows so that’s 39 pieces and 78 screws twice. Takes me about a hour to replace them.

  7. Sorry for the grammer errors above, hold my son and his bottle with one hand and my bb with the other. LOL

  8. 40-45 inches of snow fewer coastal storm and more inside runners and temperatures that will be near to slightly above normal.

  10. Vicki- I agree with Tom. You should have an interesting mounth. My friend has a house right on the ocean in the sandhills section of Scituate. It is on the market because he can’t take the winters anymore. Lots of damage the last few years.

    1. I figure either way it’ll be great. Last year new years day was short sleeve weather which is also nice at the beach. I’d love a place overlooking the ocean but not close enough to get the damage. We will just keep renting those !

  11. OK, for now I will predict 40-60″ at Logan from “worst case” to “best case” scenario in terms of snowfall.

    For the record, however, I actually like Tom’s numbers over Coastal’s…this warmth is most troubling with no real cold in sight probably for rest of this month. I am no met by any means, but I just don’t see how a long term pattern can just shift at the drop of a hat.

    Also, Todd mentioned on his 6:00 newscast that the foliage is 1-2 weeks behind compared to last year…hmm.

    1. Regarding the foliage, that everlasting upper level system would be a good reason for us being behind, as the nights have been warm and humid.

    2. Long-term regimes can and do suddenly shift. This will be taking place between October 31 and November 30. I realize that is a large range of time, but I think the regime switch may be tied to late-season tropical activity as one of the main triggers. I’ll explain more about that later…

  13. That area that Accuweather has us in for their EARLY winter predictions should say “Could go either way” in my opinion.

  14. The 40-45 inches is not my final call for the winter. You have to look at temperatures in October and November. When they average below normal that tends to lead to a colder and snowier winter. When they average above normal that tends to lead to a mild and below normal snowfall.
    Snowcover in Siberia is another factor to look at.

  15. Just for a good laugh Farmers’ Almanac predicts between the 20-23rd a major snowstorm. At least one good thing if that is the one major snowstorm we have this winter I will be back from vacation and be here to enjoy it.

  17. Just read the weather matrix above – they are saying that it will be cold and stormy here with mild spells – have I got that right?

    Sounds like it will be a wet winter w/a lot of rain/snow/mix. In other words, cold and stormy meaning cold w/snow and/or ice then mild to melt it all. Hope my comments aren’t too confusing.

    Looking forward to the coming wknd. – we are planning to do a little hiking at some point. Not sure where just yet – prob’ly NH – but we are thinking of VT. I have been to VT before but never actually hiked around there.

    Have a good night everyone.

  18. I think the OFA’s winter forecast is upside down. But I love the publication so they can take a mulligan on the forecast.

    I’m not going to utilize the October/November temperature correlation for the winter this season. It has not been working consistently enough in recent years to be a reliable long range forecasting index. We’re looking at a hard core regime change in the weeks ahead. The timing and persistence of the change and the conditions in the new regime have several determining factors and will take a little time to pinpoint, from a forecasting perspective.

  19. I’m really looking forward to seeing how cold it gets tonight and then how warm it gets Sunday. Regarding Sunday, its currently in the upper 60s in the Dakotas and some parts of southern Canada were close to 90F yesterday. Westerly winds, relatively low humidity, extremely warm airmass above……I wonder if 90F is attainable Sunday after maybe scraping frost off the windshields tomorrow. Love it !! Have a good day all !

    1. Boston has hit 90F three (3)times in October:

      10/1/1881
      10/7/1963
      10/12/1954

      Also, October 1963 was very warm…Boston records were set 4 times!

  20. Barry mentioned this morning that tonight’s frost will not be enough to kill off the mosquito population, especially nearby. He said temps need to be well down into the 20’s…upper 20’s-low 30’s won’t do it unfortunately.

    I always thought 32F does the trick, but I have obviously been mistaken.

  21. I would also like to add that following that warm October 1963, Boston received 63″ of snowfall for that 1963-64 winter season!

    TK…now I can understand why you won’t use October/November temps as an indicator anymore. However, I still can’t foresee anywhere near 80+” as last winter.

    1. I’m still working on how I think the #’s will turn out. This could be one of those winters that is all out crazy early, then dies, only to throw one big snow bomb in right at the end, possibly very late season.

      1. I remember a storm in Dec. 92 or 93 that had a couple of inches of rain on the front end and then as it wobbled slowly southeast of nantucket, it then dropped 15 inches of wet snow in Lowell. Recently, there was the Dec storm that exploded with thundersnow and hurricane force winds on the Cape and then about 5 yrs ago, I remember a December powdery snow of close to a foot.

  22. I would say a lot of people will be surprised by the amounts of snow we get in December. December storms have a way of being very sneaky:) I am going for at least 55 inches in Boston!!

  23. TK…I know next weekend is a long ways off regarding forecasting, but will next week’s upcoming rain be out of here by next Saturday the 15th?

    Fwiw, Henry Margusity is already calling for 4″+ rain for parts of the northeast.

    1. I don’t think we’ll have widespread torrential rain at this point, and I think the wet weather will be gone by the 15th, at least that system anyway.

  24. Dewpoints are very low..in the mid 20s to near 30…..I actually had a bit of frozen dew on my car this morning. Looking forward to the temps tomorrow morning about 6am.

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