Friday Forecast

235 Comments

8:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
If you were out shopping overnight, welcome back! Now get some sleep while the sun shines on this bright late November day! It will be a gusty and chilly one, however, due to air flow between low pressure well offshore to the east and a high pressure area over southeastern Canada. This set-up hangs on through Saturday as well, and then the next in a parade of storm systems arrives during Sunday, and this elongated system will take its time passing by so it will be impacting us through Monday as a precipitation event, and even into Tuesday as a wind event along with a few possible lingering snow showers. The main precipitation shield will likely start as snow for all areas except possibly the South Coast and Cape Cod, and will stay mostly snow in southwestern NH and central MA, while areas to the east and southeast of here eventually see a change to rain due to the warming influence of an east wind off the still relatively warm ocean water. However some of these areas will go back to mix and snow as the storm begins to pull away and it starts to cool down both at the surface and aloft Monday night. We still have a couple more days to work out details on this so I will hold off on snow accumulation numbers beyond just a general idea in the forecast below. Lastly, just a reminder that if you missed the nice celestial sky show, it happens again this evening at dusk in the southwestern sky, with the crescent moon sharing the sky with Saturn, Venus, and Jupiter.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. Light to moderate snow accumulation away from coastal areas especially I-95 belt northwestward. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere. Highs 33-38 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with any mix back to snow interior, rain to mix/snow closer to the coast, additional minor accumulation possible. Breaking clouds but lingering snow showers overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
A progressive low pressure trough will swing through from west to east later December 4 into early December 5 with a few rain/snow showers here and a new storm forming offshore but too far out for direct impact. Next trough, likely weaker, moves through and drives a cold front across the region with a few rain/snow showers either nighttime December 6 or sometime December 7, then high pressure moves in with seasonably chilly weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
High pressure hangs on with dry weather to start the period, a disturbance comes through with a minor precipitation threat in the December 10-11 time frame with a broader area of unsettled weather threatening later in the period.

235 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Here is a re-post of something I was working on while TK was updating…

    Here are some of my F5 service Euro snow totals for around the area:

    Logan: 6.7
    Brookline: 8.7
    Woburn: 12.6
    Westwood: 10.5
    Hingham: 0.9
    marshfiled: 0.4
    pembroke: 1.3
    sutton: 15.1
    holden: 20.2
    coventyr,ct: 15.0
    waterbury,ct: 14.2

    sorry if I missed anyone, I used what I could remember.
    If anyone wants a Town, I’d be happy to plug it in and see what comes out.

    re-post

    I know most of these do not agree with TK, but here are some snow totals from various models:

    https://imgur.com/a/lLXF0ad

    2. It is MILDLY amusing how much snow that model can forecast for Boston with an east wind in late autumn. 🙂

      1. Ahhhh but it has happened in the past and it is Christmas and magic happens.

        I like that 15 plus, even if it’s cut in half 😉

  4. Hard to ignore some of the trends that are anomalous to the typical and we need to mold this data into our thinking. More QPF, longer duration, etc.

    However, we are seeing model weaknesses in identifying thermal profiles, banding intensity and locations, and backside snow accumulations where a lot of these high accumulation numbers are being achieved.

    Ultimately you have a weakening Quebec high that is going to be key to so much of this. So even with the high remaining in the same general place, the cold air profiles will be impacted and models struggle with identifying weakening high pressure. At the same time the post low passage deformation zone precip creates lots varying intensity precip and that just can’t be predicted well and of course the intensity impacts thermal profiles.

    Much too think about.

    1. The models definitely need to consider the Atlantic not just this time of year but deep into the winter as well. This is not the Midwest.

  6. Hello from Maine, a little snow here yesterday. Cold and blustery today.

    Interesting set up, but man that East wind is a killer this time of year. Models certainly spitting out high number and nothing I would than that. I am surprised they don’t account for warming temps from the ocean in the snow algorithm.

    should be an active winter and lots of opportunities.

    1. Hi Hadi,

      Great to see you here!!

      12Z NAM seems to be correcting some. Interesting cut off in the snow north
      to south. Maps soon.

  9. 12Z NAM maps, Kuchera Snow and Surface with precip-type at 84 hours. Still Snowing with more to come. These maps are zoomed way in to see the snow gradient.
    Please note the sharp differences from the immediate coast to just a short distance inland. The model clearly is taking into account the ocean temperature, perhaps not nearly enough, but it is there.

    https://imgur.com/a/2UgvJjZ

    Not sure what this means, but it “appears” the system gets a kick in the ass after
    a lull in the middle and even though 850 temps remain below freezing in Boston,
    there is still a change to rain for a period, presumably due to boundary layer issues.
    There’s a surprise. 🙂

    I find it all interesting no matter how you slice and dice it.

    Precip-type loop:

    https://imgur.com/a/HBDUBps

  12. I wonder if ‘part 2’ trends to impact very, very far southern areas ?

    Potential for not a lot of precip to fall in northern Mass ??

  14. As I said last night on the previous blog I need something to smile about after an embarrassing Cowboys loss. Come out of the gate scoring a touchdown then give up 26 points. South Shore Kid was right when he said it’s coaching. Looking at the models it looks like I am going to see my first accumulating snow of winter 2019-2020.

  15. I do hope that people, who are visiting eastern New England from western New England or NY State, etc know to either head back late Saturday or very early Sunday, otherwise they are really going to have a long, slow ride home.

  17. FWIW,

    I just ran a loop of the 12Z NAM 925mb temperatures. They remain below freezing
    for the duration from about 20-30 miles South of Boston N&W.
    Interesting.

    It would not let me save the loop. Let me try another site.

    https://imgur.com/a/8YQoCHz

  21. From Meteorologist John Homenuk
    Far from a classic evolution with the winter storm from Sunday into Monday, but one that could produce significant snowfall in parts of New England. Snow potential exists on both the front end WAA banding and secondary coastal formation. This will be a tough forecast for many.

  27. JPD. Please keep the posts coming. I love the anticipation and your enthusiasm makes it that much more special.

  29. TK, and even if there were attic air, wouldn’t climo suggest a bias more toward freezing rain and sleet vs. widespread heavy snow amounts? I try to remember this is more typical for decemeber.

      1. December 9 has surely delivered multiple high number storms….back in 1978 complete with thunder snow in Boston. I rule nothing out based on time of year. My very non meteorologist POV

    2. Not so sure about the icy stuff. Surface temps may not be cold enough for most areas. And cold air thickness may not even be enough for significant sleet anywhere. I think it’s just a case of cold enough aloft for snow at first, marginal at the surface, and then too warm everywhere except staying marginal over the interior. Then a bit of a reversal as the storm departs.

    1. All you need to know that we are experiencing significant model error. Those maps show the greatest snow accumulation in valley locations and less in the adjacent hills during a marginal temp profile event.

  32. Hi everyone…back from summer. I guess I’m the opposite of a snow bird?

    Anyone think TK is starting to sound Belichickian (I don’t mean the obstinate part – just the Yoda part). Hmm, has TK ever really posted during a live Belichick game or interview… could they be…

    I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and only best wishes for a wonderful winter.

  33. TK – to your point above – not a difficult forecast, but there is a generation of forecasters and enthusiasts who have come of age is the era of broad availability of model information. So they have to think about how to filter the information they have been programmed to receive and regurgitate.

  35. It’s not an “easy” forecast. But it’s not that difficult. We’ve seen this set-up many times. Models always over-forecast snow, or just blow up. I have no idea what the higher amounts in the valleys is all about. That’s kind of a new one on me..

    These models were developed as guidance for the forecaster, who still needs to apply meteorology to interpret the data. Most of the time, virtually all of the time, there is some error involved. And we won’t make it perfect either, but we will hopefully make it much better than just model output. Met’s won’t be obsolete for a long time to come. 🙂

    1. I think I have an idea on the valley inverted snow totals and something you note above – which this is a reverse of typical storm scenarios – and these models
      seem to be creating an orographic inhibition (instead of lift) and remember most of these snow algorithms use maximum temp at 500hpa and create a greater than or less than multiplier which doesn’t work so well when we know that it is already struggling with thermal profiles interpretations.

      I got draw it out, but I think I might be onto something.

  36. I like the posts that link the model output. For one they save many people looking it up, and Dave loves to do it and in turn I love to see it. It’s perfect information for the sake of the discussions we have. Dave knows very well that you can’t just look at the models and make it the forecast. So there’s definitely no issue there. Keep them coming JP! 🙂

    1. Thanks TK and yes, I am fully aware that the models need meteorology to interpret the data. As much as I am loving these snow totals, I am
      well aware of that ocean temperature out there and it does concern me,
      most especially if the wind is more East than North.

      Still, I find it exciting to watch it unfold.

      1. Exactly. And I always enjoy watching you post your enthusiasm and occasional disappointment even though I don’t like to see you disappointed. I must admit it’s still funny to watch. 😉

        1. But is it true disappointment since anticipation is half the joy. Disappointing to me….and I only speak for me….is not having anything to follow

      2. And that says it all JPD. I am also smart enough to know these are models and they do not tell the entire story. It’s just fun…period…to watch it unfold.

    1. Look above from today’s blog: TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45.
      Yesterday’s blog: FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45.

      It is currently 40 here in JP, I’d say pretty much in line with those
      Highs posted. So, please tell us what your reasoning is that it is much
      warmer today than expected? Curious.

    3. Not sure where you’re getting that from SSK. It’s pretty much as it was expected. Maybe a degree or 2 over in a few spots. But “much warmer”? No, not even close.

  44. Good afternoon and thanks TK. I got up quite late today after black Friday shopping online until 4AM 🙂

    Not much sun here in Amsterdam, NY today…mostly cloudy, breezy and cold! There are a few dirty snow piles around from the storm earlier in the week but otherwise just bare ground.

    Still planning on getting some skiing in at Gore tomorrow and will try to leave as early as possible Sunday but don’t think I am going to avoid a snowy ride. I don’t mind driving in it….I have 4 wheel drive and just got new tires Wed. But its always the other guy you need to worry about….

    I have an all-day conference at the DCU Center in Worcester Monday too. As much as I love the snow, crappy timing with this storm.

  45. Nice reminder from Eric for all those uninformed people who don’t read this blog 🙂

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    1h

    User beware on 10:1 snow maps they will fail you here with the mixing, likely coastal front, warm ocean to deal with, etc. But idea is better chance of significant totals inland vs coastline/SE Mass

    1. In certain circumstances, well actually most of the time, 10:1 maps
      are not all that useful, unless of course one is able to deduce snow ratios etc
      and extrapolate.

  46. Wow, surprised to see Gil Simmons of Ch. 8 in CT going with 8-12 or 14″ for an early call across northern CT. Looks like he is all in on the Euro…

    Gil Simmons
    @gilsimmons
    6h

    Early snow thoughts:

    START: Sunday 9AM Greenwich & 1PM Putnam
    All snow to start statewide
    Mixing & changing Sunday evening/night
    Heaviest: Sunday night
    EARLY THOUGHTS ON HOW MUCH: 1-4 shore, 4-8 central & 8-12 or 14 northern CT. #StayTuned #WTNHweather

    https://twitter.com/gilsimmons/status/1200371346695426050?s=20

    1. I figured you’d like that. 🙂

      Here’s another favorite BB quote: “Sign me up…” *slight smirk included*

  48. So that Canadian snowmap has a 24″ jackpot in the Pioneer Valley over JMA’s house.

    I’m sure he’s frantically hoarding his cart full of bread and milk at the Big Y as we speak….

  53. I usually under-estimate temps on days 1 and 2. It’s my weakest forecast area, believe it or not.

    Today I went for 38-45. As of 1PM, the temps across my forecast area are 37-44. I’ll take it. An entire 1 degree COOLER than forecast. 😉

  56. 12z Euro looks a bit more tucked in and warm at the mid levels.

    Still pumping out ridiculous 10-20″ snow totals

    1. Crap loads of RAIN along the coast)!(@&#^!@&#^&!@^%$%
      !@)(&#*!&@$^@!&($#@^&*$^&@$*^*&^@)($~)@#&*(&$^@&*($&*(*&~@$^@*&^~!)$&@^(*!~@$(&$($(*~!@$)(*!&#_*@#)(#*$&~@&#$)(@#*#()@#(!@#()*!~@#&()!~*@)(#*~)(*@#)(~*@#()!~#*!)(@*#()!

  58. Thank you, TK.

    Coastal issues will prevent much snow from happening where I live. Perhaps a bit more in places like Jamaica Plain, but not much. I think the jackpot areas are well interior and elevated.

    I’m not liking the strong zonal flow that’s coming. Not only will this brief wintry period not be so wintry, it’ll be followed by a prolonged period of mild. I’m hoping some real cold will return by the 20th of December. But, these patterns tend to get locked in for a while. Essentially, the patterns I’m talking about are extensions of the current one we’re in: Persistent, mostly zonal flow, weak highs to our north, progressive and active systems of mostly rain or mix at the coast. Not my kind of winter so far. But, winter won’t officially begin until the 21st of December. Let’s hope we see real changes by then.

    JJ, I don’t understand the owner of the Cowboys. He had to see that the team is woefully unprepared and lacks motivation as well as discipline. Yet, the team is talented, so this is on the coach. I think they’re better on paper than almost any other NFC team. The team needs a kick in the pants. I’m afraid Dallas may be headed for a totally lost season now. They could easily go 7-9 or 8-8 the way they’re playing.

  59. I’d actually be surprised if even a third of those snow totals south of the Pike verify looking at how warm the midlevels get mid storm.

      1. You are right, its actually the 2m temps which rise to the 34-35 degree range for an extended period mid storm Pike south and in eastern MA.

        The 850 temps look good for most across the interior but I am highly suspect on those.

  60. Joshua to me the only reason Cowboys have a shot at the playoffs right now is because there in the NFC East. This team should be better than a 6-6 team. Elliot not rushing like he did his first three seasons, defense looks like world beaters at times and other times can’t stop anyone, and these bad starts which is coaching. If I were Jerry Jones I would have fired Jason Garrett after the Patriots game. We have seen enough and that was the time to shake things up.

  63. Thanks for posting those links JpDave. Looks like a HOLY CRAP BATMAN with the EURO snowfall maps your showing for my area.

  66. If you want a visual that will explain a lot of what was talked about here in pretty pictures, compare the positive snow depth change map to the snow accumulation map on the 12z 12km NAM.

  68. Its probably a good time to remind everyone with the impending snowstorm on the way to keep your exhaust vents clear of snow. From the look of the snow maps posted this could be a really bad one.

        1. OMG hahahahahaha. I hadn’t seen that commercial. How true. I hope this freaks everyone out and my commute into town is easier on Monday cause everyone stays home in panic mode. (Switched jobs and I drive into Boston each day now)

            1. yeah it is – great work though so it’s worth the drive. I work for a high end remodeler. We have lots of work in the back bay.

    1. Looks like I am on the line between 3-5″ and 5-10″ there.

      That’s a pretty aggressive snow map for northern and western CT. It’s achievable, as long as round two performs on Monday.

  71. NWS Norton going with…

    4-8″ Boston except 3-5″ immediate shoreline
    5-10″ Hartford and Tolland Counties
    8-12″ western and central MA

    NWS Upton going 8-12″ interior southern CT

    NWS Albany going 9″+ for the Berkshires and Litchfield County CT

    NWS snowmap is not updated yet.

    1. NWS going 4-8″ Boston except 3-5″ immediate shoreline per the latest WSW statement.

      Their snowmap showing 2″ is not updated. That map was as of 3AM this AM.

  75. I don’t think that WSW is warranted for anywhere near Boston. We shall see.

    Looking at the trends, and most especially the 18Z NAM to go along with the 12z Euro, it looks like this thing wants to come in hot, as in too far North AND too close to the coast.
    That ain’t a snowmaker even in January!!!!

    Let’s see IF there is any adjustment in the 0Z runs. Here’s hopig, but NOT expecting it to get better, only worse.

      2. That’s not the right link…old map.

        Looks like Dr S found their updated snowmap in his link above.

        It is showing 8″ Boston.

        I’ll refer to my previous comment about streaking nude thru the Common if that happens.

        2. Actually the last few seasons their track record for snow forecasts is excellent.

          While I don’t agree with this one I think they’ll do a reasonably good job yet again this season.

  76. 18z GFS wants to deliver more of a punch with round one of snow for my area. Then like the NAM that second round packs a punch.

  77. My guess for north shore is snow>mix>rain>snow. I’m thinking 2-3″ and I do not expect anything to seriously accumulate on paved surfaces.

    Of course this assumes no real changes in the track … lol!!

  78. I think I’m believing in these models ….

    As you know, I tend to go low on snow projections. From that, I have often been too low and the models have been a lot closer to reality. No way did I think the models were accurately projecting last november’s snowstorm. Too early, ocean too warm, I said, but in reality, the models projections weren’t far off.

    Today’s euro may have a low center over Cape Cod. But, at that time, all the 850 mb temps are below 0c. In fact, the low seems so occluded that a -5c (850 mb) isotherm is wrapping around east of Cape Cod.

    The isobars from the low elongate well east into the ocean. I didn’t interpret that is the initial secondary low, which might earlier present mid-level temp issues, but rather a second energy punch located under a rather vigorous 500mb feature tracking along the south coast. Translated, I can see this feature Monday night being a decent snow producer on top of anything that has fallen previously late Sunday through the day Monday.

    Now, will Boston get 8″? Probably not because Logan won’t, but I think later Monday into Monday night might do well for areas just away from the coastline as surface winds become more northerly, while 850mb winds continue a moist NE flow. And by just away, I’m implying a handful of miles.

  81. It was good to hear the voice of a familiar name at BOX on the storm coordination call today. Hoping to see many of them in person in January at the AMS conference. There’s been quite a bit of turnover at that office since I was last there. Honestly, I can’t really speak to the forecast for you guys up there as it will be quite a different storm there than here, and I’ll be heavily engrossed in things here for the next couple days…

    I love tracking winter weather though. I’m always ready for a change after convective season, and these events are just a lot of fun as both a meteorologist and weather enthusiast.

  82. FWIW no frozen ground in Sutton. All stakes were hammered in with no resistance. And for dinner yesterday, my oldest in Uxbridge pulled a couple of dozen carrots that will grow in her garden until the ground freezes. And there is absolutely nothing like fresh carrots from the garden

  84. I just watched the weather here on the news on WNYT (Ch. 13, Albany NY) and this is the snowmap that was presented by Bob Kovachick who is the Barry Burbank of meteorologists here in the Albany area (been doing the weather here since I was a little kid)…

    https://wnyt.com/article/13368

    He even posted 4 model snow forecasts for Albany (Euro, GFS, NAM, and RPM) ranging from 19″ (Euro) to 9″ (RPM)

    Quite a high bust potential with a lot of these TV forecasts for this storm if part 2 doesn’t materialize!

  85. My predictions are worthless. But, I’ll continue to weigh in. To me the novice the storm’s track, water temperature, weak high to our north, high in a less than ideal position, and mostly an easterly as opposed to a northeasterly, will produce a mixed bag at the coast with little accumulation (maybe 1-3, 1 being Logan; 3 being Newton). Different story away from the coast. But, in this case, you have to go west of 495 for significant snowfall (over 6 inches). I could see some places along 84 in Connecticut getting over 6 inches.

      1. I think you have 2 times in the duration of the event where you’ll either be chemically treating or shoveling in Boston.

        The first is Sunday evening, with the initial period of snow and then again Monday after sunset into Monday night and perhaps Tuesday morning.

        I’d think very late Sunday night, into most of Monday, Boston will have rain/drizzle/lull in precip and temps above 32F.

        I think Monday night Boston receives more snow than Sunday evening.

          1. I think that sounds reasonable Tom . And it will be OT in time for Xmas check without busting my ass.

  88. If this forecast holds I think for inland SNE there will be kids happy getting an extra day added to Thanksgiving break on Monday.

    1. Thank goodness it will be raining, I hope and think in Marshfield Monday morning. We already lost a day to wind damage from that wind event in October. Already sitting at June 17th for 180th day. Need to get to December vacation without another day off. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  89. Looking ahead, seems that a chunk of arctic air will be developing on our side of the hemisphere in northern Canada in the long range, by day 10.

    We need to keep an eye on that for where that may be headed by about Dec 10th and beyond.

    2. That will probably evolve a little more slowly. Big fat high pressure should be over us around Dec 8 then off to the southeast Dec 9 when we may have a very mild shot of air.

  91. 00z NAM pounds Monday night with snow.

    Overdone, but I like the idea that Monday night is the most opportune for snow in eastern areas of New England.

  93. 00z NAM pressure projection of 982 mb at hr 84, lowest I think I’ve seen so far.

    Going to be one pretty good wrapped up system as that is quite a bowling ball that will be passing along the south coast at 500 mb.

  94. If this general projection verifies, I hope that folks can be patient with the snow later Sunday into the day Monday because I don’t think that will impress very much.
    But this feature later Monday evening and overnight Monday night could be good and the timeframe that really produces some decent snows.

  95. We all know when a model makes a big change that whatever it changes to is the new correct. 😉

    Basically it has no idea what to do when the initial batch of energy from the old primary low comes to the coast.

    1. All it takes is a small error like that for it to be very wrong.

      This is such an example.

      The GFS will not make that same mistake and will be much more realistic.

  98. 00z GFS is heading in the right direction.

    Snow depth change map a little closer to reality versus the snow accumulation map.

    1. So let me ask in all honesty. All I have heard for months is how awful the GFS is and the the first storm and now it’s right? I am clearly not a professional but that makes zero sense to me.

      1. GFS solution is much more in line with how the other models are handling this storm.

        That NAM run was pretty comical. Look at the difference between the low centers at hour 60. GFS has the low south of LI while the NAM has a dying low center halfway to Bermuda before exploding what is essentially a second storm off the NJ coast when the trailing ULL comes through.

  99. Yep, 00z GFS is nothing like the NAM. Doesn’t really have a defined “Part 2” to the storm. Not much back end precip when the upper level low comes through.

    Still fairly significant snow totals inland:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019113000&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Interesting that both the NAM and GFS are showing 27″ of snow Kuchera for Albany NY and the Euro showed 19″. Perhaps I should get the hell out of here at the crack of dawn on Sunday!

  101. Hadi..

    You must have missed my comments about how the GFS has been handling a winter type systems much better than it did Summer stuff.

    It isn’t just suddenly right. I don’t go with models because they show what I wish to happen.

    I use meteorology to analyze things, whether the outcome is correct or incorrect.

  102. I must add. I still think the GFS straight numbers are overdone. It’s just better than the run before it.

  104. So the GFS, NAM, and now the CMC all remarkably consistent and showing a 27” bullseye over Albany. Either the models are all making the same mistake or they are going to get crushed here. Even 2/3 of that is a huge storm. Boy do I wish I could stay here a few more days 🙂

  106. lol wsw for boston from 3 to 12 inches of snow. That’s the highest variety i have ever seen norton do. I guess this will cover one way or another

    1. Those people down there have lost their minds!!!
      Since when does 3 inches qualify for Winter Storm Watch?????????????????

      At the most, Boston should have a Weather Weather Advisory.
      Guarantee for Boston there will be no Winter Storm Warning, it will be an advisory at most, if that even.

      However, I do understand that it is a watch due to uncertainty and the watch
      could easily be changed to an advisory which it will be for part of the area.
      May still end up a warning for areas N&W of Boston, but no way a warning
      for the city. No way.

      This whole thing is a JOKE!!!

      This system continues to trend N&W too tight to the coast. NO WAY is this
      a snow maker for Boston. No way. Sure may see some snow up front
      and backside, but no big deal.

      EURO actually has the most snow for Boston, But even that I’ll believe when I see it.

      This system has been nothing but another tease for snow lovers. Just a tease.
      Hope this doesn’t happen all Winter. AND, have we learned anything?
      TK and JMA just ain’t whistling Dixie when they speak. 🙂

      At least major ski areas should benefit.

      Is there any time for this to trend South again? I think Not. If anything, it keeps
      creeping Northward.

      My 2 cents and complaints and rants for this morning. May be more later, who knows.

  107. Snowfall maps:

    Ch. 4 = Dave Epstein 2-4”/4-8” Boston, rain/snow line playing cat-and-mouse with the city.

    Ch. 5 = Kelly Ann 3-6” Boston, rain/snow line all the way past 495/Worcester.

  108. Interesting tid bit from the Euro….

    I checked temperatures for the duration of the event. It is hard to believe in this set up, but the Euro shows 925mb, 850mb and 700mb temperatures ALL remaining below
    freezing from about 30 miles or so South of Boston N&W. In other words the atmosphere above us would support Snow. But alas, it will be raining. Why?

    Can you say Boundary Layer (due to that warm ocean!).

    Look at this surface temperature map from the Euro:

    https://imgur.com/a/UVo8Ma9

  109. a) on the 3 to 12 inches of snow : the locations that this range is for probably will have a large snowfall range over a very short distance. In early December, I have seen plenty of times where Brant Rock has 1″ and four miles to the west, there is 6″ at Rte 3. Whether the 3 and 12 are the correct numbers is debatable, but the large range for Boston and Quincy and Gloucester are reasonable.

    b) don’t discount part 3 of the event. The NWS mentions the potential for some heavier snows Monday night. That’s an impressive backside this system can have. That’s where I believe the snow potential exists. I know it will be midday Monday and we’ll be commenting on where the snow is or why inland locations only have 3-4 inches, but I think patience on what happens in part 3 will be needed.

    c) the models have their deficiencies, but they aren’t awful either. Many of them have a decent amount of snow. I’d trust in them to some degree.

    1. Hi Tom,

      Re: a.
      It is not the range. It is the 3 inches. The areas for 3 inches should NOT be
      in the watch. They should then say the watch is for all areas, except along
      the immediate coast. I dislike they way they are handling this.
      Not for nothing, but with the 0Z runs in, they only adjusted Boston down
      1 stinken inch on their latest map prepared around 4AM.

      re: b
      Call be doubting Thomas. I’ll believe it when I see it.

      re: c
      Agreement.

      NWS snow map: (note preparation time)

      https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.png

      1. I see what you are saying. However, probably for the public, it would be hard to convey a watch for the majority of Boston and an advisory for east Boston and the airport. I can see this where you end up with 6″, Fanueil Hall area has 3.5 and the airport has 1.6

        I agree with you 1,000% on the technicality of watches vs advisory, but probably impossible to not confuse a majority of the public.

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