Sunday Forecast

320 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
The final month of 2019 has arrived, and the first winter storm of the 2019-2020 season is about to arrive! There has been no significant change to the discussion posted here just over 24 hours before this one, but let’s try to add a little fine-tuning. We’re still looking at a broad low pressure area with a couple centers to affect the region. There will be about a 1 to 2 hour delay of the precipitation onset due to its need to overcome a lot of dry air at lower levels. This will keep most of the region precipitation-free until dusk or evening, but snow may be making it to the ground in eastern CT, central MA, and possibly southwestern NH while it is still daylight. This may still start as a mix/rain across Cape Cod and parts of the South Coast, but conditions will be borderline there. As things get going tonight, that’s when most of the guaranteed snow accumulation takes place, and I’m still leaning toward a rather quick warming of the lower atmosphere on an east wind for eastern MA and RI, eventually into eastern CT and possibly parts of at least south central MA. And as this happens, the track of the initial low pressure area should be close enough to the South Coast to allow warming aloft to push northward. These conditions should combine to produce a change to rain in southern and eastern areas, but a change to sleet and some freezing rain across interior areas from perhaps northeastern CT through central MA, and at least a mix with sleet in north central MA and interior southern NH. The last 2 areas mentioned will likely stay mostly snow before there is some diminishment in precipitation coverage and intensity during Monday morning. This will occur as the initial low center moves away to the east and a bit of drying is introduced at mid levels, where most of the precipitation is generated. And what as always been the most uncertain part of the system remains so. Colder air will start to nudge back south and east as a second low center, the remains of the original low, head eastward just south of the South Coast. This will probably help trigger yet another redevelopment of some kind offshore which may intensify fairly quickly and track a little further northward, probably doing a cyclonic loop east of New England. The re-organization of precipitation and its coverage and movement in response to this final low pressure area will determine how much additional snow falls on the back side of the system Monday night and early Tuesday as it gets set to depart. Yesterday, and today as well, I’m leaning toward limited coverage for any heavier snow banding, and probably a fight with some drier air being pulled into the system at the same time it’s organizing and moving away. This will hold me back from adding too much in the way of accumulation to the forecast of the back-end portion of the storm, and result in similar numbers for the front-end portion of the snow, which I posted yesterday, and a small additional amount for the back end added to that for a total, resulting in amounts that should break down this way.
…
Cape Cod / South Coast of MA: Coating to 2 inches.
RI and remainder of southeastern MA up the coastline to Cape Ann: 2-4 inches.
I-95 belt and NH Seacoast: 4-6 inches.
I-495 belt from near I-90 westward and northward including interior southeastern NH: 6-9 inches.
North central MA to southwestern and south central NH: 9-12 inches.
…
Can that snow forecast still blow up in my face? Absolutely. If I feel there is a need to tweak it or make even more drastic changes, I’ll re-post it in the comments section of the blog and include it on the next full blog post of course. There are no changes in the thinking of how things run after the storm gets out of here. Breezy, colder weather arrives Tuesday. The next trough swings through with a snow shower threat later Wednesday to early Thursday with additional storminess occurring too far offshore for any direct impact, and cold air is just reinforced as that takes place.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. Lows 27-32 interior, 33-38 coast. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere, diminishing but turning back to snow further east later in the day. Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix/rain coastal areas turning to snow. Lows 26-31 interior, 32-37 coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with snow showers likely and a chance of steadier snow for a while mainly NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, then variably cloudy with scattered to isolated snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible snow showers. Lows 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 33-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
A progressive trough and accompanying cold front will push through with a few snow showers late December 6 to early December 7, which turns out windy and cold. High pressure builds in with dry and chilly weather December 8 and still dry but milder weather for December 9. Next system at the end of the period should be a rain shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Fair and chilly weather returns early in the period. Low pressure trough may bring precipitation threat mid period before fair and seasonably chilly weather follows.

320 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    Winter Storm Warning = 6”+ possibility
    Winter Weather Advisory = 4”+ possibility

    Is this correct when these are posted?

    1. Straight from the NWS web page…

      Winter Storm Warning
      This product is issued by the National Weather Service when a winter storm is producing or is forecast to produce heavy snow or significant ice accumulations. The criteria for this warning can vary from place to place.
      Winter Storm Watch
      This product is issued by the National Weather Service when there is a potential for heavy snow or significant ice accumulations, usually at least 24 to 36 hours in advance. The criteria for this watch can vary from place to place.

      Around here, it’s usually over 6 inches for snow accumulation.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A couple of re-posts

    Some snow totals from selected models:

    https://imgur.com/a/ghtDJGm

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019120106/icon_asnow_neus_26.png

    https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

    Some of the shorter range models don’t take the storm to completion, so not posting those.

    SREF ensemble mean: 5.52 inches for Boston.

    Jpdave says:
    December 1, 2019 at 7:42 AM
    Can someone please explain the following to me.
    Here are 3 maps from the current 11Z HRRR. One depicts precip type, while the
    other 2 are 925mb and 850 mb temperatures. How is that SLEET showing on the precip type map? I checked 700 mb on another site and those temps are sub freezing as well???

    https://imgur.com/a/kQxiC7L

    Either there is a warm layer in between those somewhere OR what I think is sleet
    is MIXED rain and Snow????????

    I going to find a sounding to see if there is a sneaky warm layer in between those heights.

      2. Thanks, but that shows freezing just above the surface, no?
        I wanted to see IF there was something say from 4 or 5,000 feet to 10,000 feet.

          1. Thank you. So there is the little culpret.
            Mot much of a warm nose, perhaps intensity
            can overcome it?????

  4. When I arrived at Ruggles Station this morning, there already was rock salt/ice melt spread out. Didn’t see any chemicals on the city streets as of yet.

    1. Most of that rock salt and ice melt will be pushed off the surfaces they were intended to protect before the precipitation arrives.

      1. I had the same thought but then in my twisted thought process realized it would then protect the road that has yet to be treated

    1. I left out a word in one of the areas, “westward”, in the one that starts with I-495. That puts you in a 4-8 band for the event.

  7. TK – Can a Winter Weather Advisory be posted for “any” amount of snow or ice? Is it a judgement call by the local NWS?

  9. I may be wrong, but it looks like the 12Z NAM wants to produce that potent
    back end to this system again.

    1. Nice closed 500 mb system parked just to our South, same for 700mb and 850 mb all pumping in an East wind from the Ocean while surface cools from the North.

      2. It’s going to be close, in the sens of how fast that closed low moves away and will it have time to capture a reorganized blob of ocean precip and rotate it back into eastern areas.

        Looks like 12z NAM says yes from 4am to at least 10am Tuesday morning.

        The wildcard continues ……

    1. Some of the short-range models have hinted at that but it won’t amount to much of anything.

  11. Tough tough snowfall projection inside 495 to 128, not so much the first 2/3 of storm but the last 1/3.

    00z 3km NAM, plus TK’s thought of possible dry air entrainment ….. part 3 in our local area can go anywhere from a dusting to 4 or 5 inches.

  13. Off to run some errands, not the least of which is to get a nail removed from
    a tire and it repaired. )(!@#!)(@#*)(!@*)#(*!

  14. It’s pretty neat to see the 850 mb temps at 12z and 15z Tuesday.

    Under the projected heavier wrap around precip, the air really cools at 850mb to -5C.

    Get N and W out of the upper low’s precip and it’s only -2 to 0C.

    Anyhow, if that -5C verifies with intense precip, I’d think that would snow right to the ocean.

  16. Thanks, TK…
    Buckling in for a fun day(s) here.

    Tom, no “no school” days, please! I know you already have one to make up already!

    Probably the best regular season game in the NFL this season: Ravens v. 49ers at 1 pm. Great Iron Bowl between Auburn and Alabama yesterday!

    Will be dividing my time between WHW and the NFL this early afternoon.

    I know it’s only December 1, but the Boston Bruins are the second best team in the NHL. The Caps, with two games in hand, are ahead by 2 points. Congrats to Bruce Cassidy.
    No Stanley Cup Finals hangover for the Bs. Still a long way to go, but the Bruins are playing some strong hockey thus far.

    Go Pats…

    Happy Sunday and Meteorological Winter, y’all!

    1. Oh my goodness, please no snow days from this down our way.

      I’m more focused on Tuesday morning than Monday morning, if we get a delay, etc.

      Glad Bama lost, should make those final 4 seeds easier for everyone to think they have the correct 4 teams picked.

      Interested to see how 49ers D tries to stop Lamar Jackson.

    1. That Boston southwest suburbs zone with that northeast hose off of the atlantic is at 6+, if not higher, for the backside

  20. The projected 500 mb system is projected a bit closer again to the south coast, it intensifies a bit more and it’s slightly slower to move away.

    I don’t think this part is etched in stone until the 12z runs tomorrow or maybe the 00z runs Monday late. How is this 500 mb feature going to track, is it intensifying and does it move ENE when it’s passing Nantucket or tracking more NNE ?

  23. After a quick review of the 12z data I made a very slight adjustment to the snowfall numbers, edited the discussion to reflect it, but this is what it says now…

    Cape Cod / South Coast of MA: Coating to 2 inches.
    RI and remainder of southeastern MA up the coastline to Cape Ann: 2-4 inches.
    I-95 belt and NH Seacoast: 4-6 inches.
    I-495 belt from near I-90 westward and northward including interior southeastern NH: 6-9 inches.
    North central MA to southwestern and south central NH: 9-12 inches.

    Basically this represents the addition of about 1 inch to most of the amounts between the low end and top end, which were not changed.

    If you saw SAK’s discussion from last night, these numbers are very close to those so we are in general agreement. We both recognize that back-end snow remains the wildcard for final totals, and this will not have the impact of a storm in which these accumulations all fall in a shorter period of time. It comes over a long period of time, with punches at the beginning and end and a long middle period where a lot of the region won’t see much accumulation going on.

      1. Right now I like the upper side of 4-6 inches there because I think there will be a significant burst of snow to start, but warming aloft should put that area to sleet/freezing rain somewhere around 7PM or so. After that there will be a very long period of less intense precipitation between mix and rain/ice (depending on surface temp) that goes well into Monday. After that there will be bands of snow but it remains to be seen how much those will be able to produce. Maybe 1-2 inches maximum.

        1. Thanks TK, that’s pretty much what I have been thinking as well. Hoping the front and back sides overproduce!

  24. Just got word my conference at the DCU Center in Worcester tomorrow has been postponed till Tuesday. It is a 12-9PM event so probably the right call.

    No snow yet here in Amsterdam, NY but it’s cloudy and cold and smells like snow outside. We are getting ready to pack up and leave soon.

  25. I listen to Rob Carolan each morning on WSAR-Fall River. A couple of weeks ago he said that the NAM was the best performing model last winter with snow totals when the storm was hours away.
    I was wondering if you all agree with that statement.

  26. Screw the tire. I have an air compressor in the trunkl that connects to the cigarette lighter
    air lasts about 12 hours. I’ll get it fixed tomorrow.
    Loving the GFS which is handling everything so well.

  27. Just got the call for 2pm be safe all . Just got offered incredible bruins tickets go figure lol , my wife will take my son .

      1. I’m not expecting anything major in the city Tk laid it out pretty well for me . It will just be a long haul as you said if that wildcard batch comes into play for Monday night .

          1. If there is weather absolutely. The most I stayed at one time was 3 days in a row with that bad winter . No time clock with storms just get it done

  28. 15z hrr showing close to 10 inches of snow just for part 1. it doesn’t really seem like it changes to sleet or rain until precipitation lightens up. it’s one of the colder solutions out there

  32. Hmmm, wonder what the Euro has to say. Beginning to look snowier for sure, even
    if there is a change to rain for a period.

    I just came in. No Snow yet in the Boston area and that includes any ocean snow. At least I didn’t see any and I was looking. 🙂

  35. Any thoughts on freezing rain areas? I think Sutton May be one. It worries me far more than snow. I did start making ice.

  37. I’m guessing euro backside is impressive. (Hr 48)

    982 mb east of Boston, a contour of -5C at 850 across east-central and eastern mass to the south shore, probably indicative of heavy wrap around precip.

    1. Tweet from Eric Fisher

      Eric Fisher
      ‏
      Verified account

      @ericfisher
      17m17 minutes ago
      More
      Euro trying to nail eastern New England with heavy snow Tuesday morning as the second low passes by. It’s going to be very close with a sharp W-E cutoff.

  42. Just started snowing where I am. Watching the Giants game there was mixing of sleet and snow then boom it was coming down to beat the band. I would love to get a band like that here as part of the front end thump.

  44. My son is driving back from NYC and he is at a lunch stop in New Haven where he
    said it was snowing lightly.

  45. Eric Fisher
    ‏
    Verified account

    @ericfisher
    3m3 minutes ago
    More
    Some fresh Euro EPS odds of 6″+ from the second phase of this storm Monday night into Tuesday. Favors areas closer to the coast. We’ll be fine-tuning this part over the next 12-24 hours.

    https://imgur.com/a/O1DvdsC

  46. Send some of those higher totals my way. From looking at the models it looks like I am going to get anywhere between 4-8 inches.

    1. I didn’t look at pavement. I suspect snow is not sticking to that. But even the tiny bit that fell is sticking on deck and deck furniture.

  50. Sorry to be MIA. Our house got broken into as we slept last night. Everyone is fine. Cards, car keys, that’s about it missing….they got scared off.

    Still struggling to reconcile the back end snow idea with experience and persistence of known pattern.

    If Boston gets 19” of snow from this, I promise you I will never post another prognostication on this blog.

    1. sorry to hear that JMA . I am glad you’re fine amd hope the perpetrators get caught.

      I think boston might get 10 to 12 inches. just a gut feeling

    5. So sorry to hear this JMA. Thank God you are all safe but what a horrible feeling it is to be violated in your own home. Hope they find them!

  52. Well …. the trend today has been to ‘phase’ everything closer to eastern New England. In response, the pressures on the low passing by Tues morning have dropped towards 980mb.

    So, is this where it plateaus? I see the 18z at 978mb.

    Are we going to see an even more intense projected system in the next set of 00z runs?

  53. I legitimately can not believe this new Euro output. That is quite the thumping. I know jpdave is delighted at the thought but help me obi wan TKenobi you’re my only hope for realistic lower totals.

  54. idk how accurate this will be but FWIW the 18z nam never changes to sleet in part one. giving us more snow in part 1

  57. Watching this storm system being modeled Philly might be in play for accumulating snow and this started to show up in recent model runs.

  60. From Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    Pressure falls are intensifying off the Delmarva Coast and will continue to shift north towards the southern NJ coast by tonight.

  64. I wonder if this has something to do with it.
    Tweet from NsfwWx
    SLP has popped up over Delmarva, quicker than anticipated, which is why we could be seeing more cold intrusion on guidance, still almost 30 hours to go before some of the heaviest stuff modeled hits…lot of runs and adjustments

  66. Just arriving home. Had moderate to heavy snow the entire ride from Upstate Ny but roads were well treated so only took about 45 min longer than usual.

    Pounding heavy snow now in Coventry CT with about an inch on the ground.

  68. Were going to win the division by the fault. To me right now if the Cowboys played to their potential they would have a nice lead in the NFC East.

  70. 18z RDPS rocks with backend action
    with some intense snow rates.

    not near my computer, but shows 13 inches plus for Boston.

      1. Hingham / south if pans out will do much better tomorrow night than tonight . Snowing in the city but it’s light not sticking to roads really yet . Everything is salted heavily.

    2. I love that approach.

      It helps take away from the mentality that a storm total map is going to be either “all at once” or the exact amount that will be on the ground, and likely the high # of the range, even with a lull in the middle in which it may rain or any snow that fell earlier may settle considerably.

      The storm totals will never be on the ground as a snow depth anywhere. That’s why this type of system it sometimes pays off to check out the snow depth change maps instead of just the total accumulation maps on the models that have that available.

    1. That was the warming aloft that was mentioned previously.

      We’re also starting to see the surface warming from the east as expected.

          1. Yup 🙂

            Somewhere in the middle of the state, I think, won’t verify snow predictions because part 1 won’t verify due to sleet and they may be too far west to share fully in part 3.

  79. I gave J.R. some kudos on FB for the 2-part snow maps. I really love that idea for this event.

  81. Poor tv mets ….. Eric just put on his twitter account a post that was well, kind of with attitude and clearly someone who is not paying attention to the words he is using.

    His response contains some humor but also understandably contains his exasperation.

    1. Those guys take a beating. And some of the people can get really nasty. Those are usually the ones that don’t actually read and/or understand the information presented to them. If those folks would slow down, take a deep breath, and try to learn something, the online part of this would be much better.

      1. It’s a post from an Olivia that he copied and in his reply at the end, he says ‘Bueller’. Be about an hour old, maybe more ?

  82. Pounding sleet and snow mixed now. Still 29.

    I knew the changeover was coming in hot but was hoping for another hour or two of straight snow. We received even less from the up front burst than my already low expectations. Oh well.

    1. That sleet takes over when precipitation is lighter. Snow takes over under a heavier band as it drags down whatever cold air is left. It’s been moderate snow in Westwood for two hours and 28 degrees. I suspect mix gets involved after this band traverses the area.

  83. Pete B…a few hours ago

    Before we get our skivvies in a bunch about this 2nd wave of snow Tue. AM, we’d be wise to remember that there is high bust potential with these kinds of backside snow setups. VVs/snowgrowth are good, but only in a small window. Very little FGEN forcing.

  84. The models were all over the mixing. Especially the NAM. WAA seems to “never” miss on a changeover after only a couple 2-3” around here. Still snowing here but I’m sure it won’t last.

  87. My current feeling on the back-end snow: Too far east. Cape Cod may get more than anybody in MA, believe it or not. And Down East Maine may get HAMMERED.

    1. In fact my next blog update may need to raise the forecast for the Cape. We’ll see. I’m not going to jump on it yet.

  89. This is such a fascinating storm. One of the more complex setups I can ever recall. I’m still in no position to say what’s going to happen up there in SNE, but if the forecast there is anywhere near as complicated as it has been here… good luck 😉

    1. I still feel like I sorta kinda have a handle on it. The first part is behaving nearly as expected. That back end is still a tricky situation. But I’m starting to get the feeling it’s Down East Maine that ends up clocked.

  94. Mixing and melting in Back Bay. Ugh! This was never going to be a coastal special. I also don’t expect much from the back-end tomorrow night (never did expect much; back-end snows that accumulate significantly are few and far between).

  95. The tree branches starting to glaze. One storm and already feeling like last winter where more ice than snow.

  96. Heavy sleet and freezing rain mixed now here in Coventry CT. We have received about 0.5” of sleet/snow mix since the initial period of all snow. 2” of snow/ice on the ground.

  97. According to Ryan Hanrahan 3 inches at BDL and now sleeting. Inland CT will not have a snowless December.

    1. Same in Sharon. Heavy snow and approaching 3” but the flakes are getting bigger as that heavy band approaches

  100. OK, score time. Models 0, TK 1

    We have gone over to RAIN in JP. WE held onto to snow almost 1 1/2 hours longer
    than the facata airport, but it is rain none-the-less. Expected, but not quite this soon.

    Total accumulation here: 1.75 inch and that is all. 🙂

    I’ll bet almost anything that the back end is a now show or virtually a no show. 🙂

  101. Enjoy those of you getting the snow. Maybe a surprise will happen for me tomorrow and a snow band will setup shop over me.

  102. 29 degrees in Amesbury (first snow in our new condo on the Merrimack River) and we are experiencing moderate to heavy snow. Already a couple of inches up here. Hey TK, any guess as to how much we might see?

    1. You should make it to 4 or maybe 5 before it mixes and tapers off to just light intermittent stuff through most of tomorrow. Working on the back-end snow forecast still. I added an inch or 2 to cover myself but it would not surprise me if almost all of it ends up offshore.

      1. That’s great we will be watching it all night . Curiosity is high for tomorrow night we shall see .

    1. Been huge and heavy here for quite a while. No turnover. But we have our 5. Plus snow I’m sure. So turn it will

    2. Yes indeed, thundersnow in Holden!

      Oh, also, hi everyone! It’s been years since I’ve posted, but I’ve been lurking. I used to report from Worcester and later Brookline, but I’m in Holden now. (Retrac, if I remember correctly, you’re in town too—howdy, neighbor!)

      1. Hey!! Yup right in the center of town. Snowing hard now. Pretty sure we’ll be close to 6” soon. Will measure in a bit.

  111. About the same here Vicki. I’m happy so far. 🙂
    At least with the storm , the pats not so much.

    1. That heavy precip is dragging down cold air. Lighter echoes would yield mix/rain. That’s what is saving me here. Been snowing quite well for past 5 hours.

  116. We’re back to snow here in JP. Started mixing again shortly after i Posted
    that it was raining. Temp was up to 34, now back down to 33.

    Very sloppy heavy wet snow.

    1. 38 with RAIN at the airport, 33 with moderate to heavy snow here in JP.
      What a difference 5 or 6 miles makes. 🙂

    3. Not too shabby. It is accumulating here, but oh so slowly. Ratio must be
      4 or 5 to 1 or so. It is about as wet a snow I have ever seen. 🙂

  120. The heavier echoes have actually suppressed the rain/snow line. The majority if not all of the storm just may be snow here. Most of the steady stuff should shut off shortly after midnight and then a long lull.

    1. What felt like freezing rain mixed in has turned back to snow here ….no longer intense by any stretch of the imagination. Works for me if it stays all snow.

      30 with 29 DP

      Pressure 29.75 so not falling a lot

  126. 974 mb per GFS on what is now an exploding low for Tuesday.

    Moderate snows projected in eastern mass on NAM, mod/heavy on GFS.

    Glad it’s been a very productive 1st part for most locations.

    1. A good 5-6 inches in Westwood. Still snowing but precip shuts off soon. This storm overachieved in my area for part I.

      2. I wouldn’t say that necessarily it’s just that they haven’t had enough time to fully click. Nkeal causing the pick and then seemingly benched after that was where the game just went off the rails.

  134. It’s still snowing here on the Woburn / Wilmington line( by rt 129). Big, wet, flakes but a good 4 inches so far.

      1. They’ve posted here before. They said they used to read TK’s comments on the bz blog. This was back in 2012. They don’t post much and haven’t in a few years.

      2. Hi Vicki (and everyone else). My name is Barry. I’ve been following the site for quite a while, but I don’t know a lot about meteorology, so I don’t comment often. I’ve been reading long enough to know OS /Jp Dave loves how snow!

        1. Hi Barry, I was a longtime reader also. TK once encouraged us to come out of the woodwork. So I did.

          Like you, I don’t comment often, and when I do, my timing isn’t the best (like this one at 3 a.m.). But it’s a great place to learn. Welcome to the fray!

  136. 2.8” of cement here in Coventry, CT. Lots of sleet tonight and it came down hard at times. Roads are a mess and driveway was a pain to clear.

    Vicki, I can’t believe how much snow you got. Usually our reports (snow and temp) are on par with one another as you are due northeast of me but tonight you were just far enough north to avert the changeover. Pretty sharp cutoff between a lot of snow and not much.

    Surprised at the thunder snow and 3” /hour reports as well. Good little storm for many of you.

    Looks like the NAM may have nailed another one…

  138. Eastern NY, the Berkshires, and southern VT getting crushed. Clifton Park NY and portions of Schenectady County already with 18” of snow. Similar amounts in the southern Green Mtns. And still a long ways to go with this storm for them.

    These are the same areas the models had been putting out 26 and 27” snow totals. Looks like they may actually verify.

    Snow totals thus far from NWS Albany…

    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

  139. Looks like the 00z NAM’s actually deliver a decent snow tomorrow night across eastern CT, eastern MA and RI with a general 3-6” from west to east. Hopefully it verifies.

    00z GFS absolutely crushes the Cape.

  140. 00z Euro delivers as well for Part 2 with an additional 4” of snow tomorrow night into Tuesday Am for eastern CT ramping up to 6” Boston area. Very similar to the NAM.

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