Wednesday Forecast

67 Comments

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Our 3-day winter storm now history, we re-enter a faster-moving weather pattern during this 5-day period with progressive systems moving generally west to east. Today, a trough crosses the region with clouds and a few snow showers. A dry but chilly northwesterly flow dominates on Thursday, a cold early December day. On Friday, the next system moves through. It will be a clipper low pressure system and its track will determine its impact here in southeastern New England. A track further north brings a few snow showers (rain showers south). A track further south brings a more widespread light snowfall. At this moment I’m leaning toward the track further south. Regardless of track, behind this system comes a brief shot of arctic air for Friday night and Saturday, coinciding with high school super bowl football games around the region. By Sunday, as a center of high pressure slides south of the region we’ll already see moderating temperatures, but also introduce more cloudiness. The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 24-31. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. A period of snow probable. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
High pressure offshore and a trough to the west along with an approaching cold front with low pressure waves on it will result in milder air and rain showers December 9-10. The front will pass by with colder air arriving and a few possible snow showers December 11. A clipper type low pressure system may bring cloudiness and a risk of snow or snow showers later December 12 into December 13, but this part of the forecast is low confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
General west to east flow overall but mean ridge position off the East Coast and a minor amount of moisture from a very weak subtropical jet stream may bring a wet weather threat around mid period (favoring rain over snow). This should be the mildest stretch of the month, although not overly warm.

67 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Of course Saturday evening will be super cold when I’m going to be at a holiday stroll event. Thanks tk

      1. Noticed? Oh wait….I thought my eyes were not quite yet focused.

        😉

        Yes, and I like it. Feels like Christmas greens surrounding the blog.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Beautiful day, even if there are clouds. I saw snow showers around, but I didn’t see any.

  8. This morning I am seeing NWS conflicting info on Logan’s snowfall amount. The final total in the Public Information section is 7.1” but the Climo Data has 5.9” to date.

    TK – Can you check what’s going on here?

  9. Thank you TK!
    The green looks good on the blog, but let’s keep the yards looking white until Christmas!

            1. Would not hurt but unfortunately it needs to be by midnight Sunday morning. We get paid every two weeks so the storm this past weekend was a nice gift .

    2. When you capitalized the word snow you made me fear the worst because I thought you were excited and somehow a foot or more was on the menu. Your enthusiasm for snow frightens me so.

    1. Oh I like that idea. First thing that briefly popped up those was a sign for FBI agent. I wondered where you were going with that until it blinked off

  15. Staying with the southern track idea for the Friday system, a minor system. Current thought is that accumulations will be under 1/2 inch around the MA/NH border just from the snow being too light to accumulate much there, and under 1/2 inch along the South Coast with a wetter snow possibly mixed with or even becoming rain, and 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inch everywhere else centered along I-90. There is obviously wiggle room because the low pressure wave won’t have formed until it’s nearly here.

    Saturday will be a bundle up day for shopping or spectating / playing at HS Football Superbowls! Brr! Not frigid but definitely below normal for early December. But it will be dry with lots of sunshine!

    I think Sunday will be dry as well even if we start bringing cloudiness in.

    Monday & Tuesday will have the mild/wetter look. This is a faster advance of the wet weather than I had previously but it still doesn’t look like a major storm system. Just moisture ahead of a front and a mild southwesterly air flow.

    The shot of Arctic air that comes through here the middle of next week will likely have some bite to it. I have a some concern that coming out of that as early as December 12 through the start of the December 14-15 weekend could end up more white than wet despite the milder look to the models. We’ll address this later.

    Looking way down the road, there will be at least 2 more snow chances between December 15 and December 25.

        1. Looking forward to it Vicki and SSK ! Never been. Been following the weather for a few weeks now to try to understand it. Looks like 60F by night, 70F by day. Sounds good to me !!

      3. Bermuda is our favorite destination.
        We have been there 5 times.

        Where are you staying?

        Bermuda won’t be hot that time of year, but it has been
        known to have temps in the 70s on Christmas Day.

        I have been there in February and gone swimming in the Atlantic. Also been in March, April and June.

        Enjoy and have a great time!!!

        1. 5 times, wow !

          Fairmont. My wife is our planner. 🙂 🙂

          Been looking online and researching a lot. Looking forward to the beach and the caves and whatever else my wife takes us to.

          1. Tom,
            That hotel is really nice. It used to be
            the Southampton Princess. It has it’s own
            golf course, or used to anyway.

            We have stayed at the Sonesta Beach on the ocean across the street from the Fairmont.

            There is a light house on a hill very near
            that hotel. The view is spectacular. Well worth
            the walk and climb.

            Check out the Crystal Caves. (this is the one
            where they filmed Esther Williams)

            There’s Fort Hamilton Bermuda

            The beach offered by the Fairmont is OK, but
            May I suggest Horse Shoe Cove or even visit
            the beach at the Elbo Beach resort.

            Horse Shoe Cove beach

            https://www.gotobermuda.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero/public/head-horseshoe-bay.jpg?itok=TScK839c

      2. While you are under the sea…or maybe in this case snow….would you mind locating my spotlights and doing an up periscope. We have three. One has been located.

  17. Thanks TK for the thoughts above.

    I am liking our chances for a white Xmas this year, even for the areas that will lose their snow cover with the quick but significant warmup early next week.

    Just running the 12z GFS for example, I can count 4 opportunities for potential snow events towards the middle to end of the run (roughly 12/13 through 12/20) basically consistent with what you said above.

  18. Update: It now appears that Logan received 5.9” for the long duration storm after all and NOT 7.1” as earlier reported.

    It would seem not only is their thermometer off, now it’s their yardstick. 😉

    Correct snow to date = 5.9”

    1. Sorry I didn’t get to that info earlier. Yeah, once upon a time Logan was very dependable for data. I hope they can get back to that level again.

      2. yeah, probably when the NWS service office was located there.
        The data has gone down the tubes since the moved their office.

  19. WeatherLink Live
    Product number:6100
    Has been ordered for Christmas.

    I will then be able to access my David Instruments instrument package remotely
    from any device that has internet, either by visiting their cloud website and enter
    my info or by installing a few mobile app.

  22. Sounds like Santa is going to be good to you this year JPD! Weather link live should be really neat. I would like to upgrade to that myself. Maybe Santa will be Good to me too! 😉

  23. Final (I hope) Update: The NWS final total snowfall to date at Logan is in fact 7.1”

    This morning Logan forgot to include 1.2” that fell the day before and posted 5.9” as what fell for the “entire” event.

        1. Sorry about that JPD. From now on when I see Logan data that doesn’t look right, I won’t post it here until they correct themselves later. I hope Logan isn’t representative of all NWS offices.

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