Thursday Forecast

55 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 5-9)
A dry and chilly northwesterly flow will dominate our weather today. It will be bright but with a bite. Please remember to use caution when traveling. The weather may be fair, but with it being cold, especially this morning, there are plenty of areas of black ice and re-frozen packed snow making hazard of some steps, walks, driveways, and side roads. This will probably be the case each morning through the weekend. A clipper low pressure system will move rapidly east southeastward across the region late Friday producing a light snowfall except rain/mix near the South Coast as the low will likely track right over that region and have just enough mild air with it. We’ll have to watch for a narrow area of briefly moderate snow and/or snow showers just in advance of and just behind the departing system. While it won’t put down much snowfall (1 inch maximum expected), it can be timed to slick up some roads for the afternoon/evening commute, especially north of I-90. Behind this system, cold air will be reinforce, and as previously stated, it will be rather cold and blustery for high school football super bowl games Friday night and Saturday. A moderating temperature trend starts Sunday as high pressure slips to the south of the region, but Sunday will be dry, despite an increase in cloudiness. Much milder air will arrive Monday on a strengthening southwest wind, but this will come along with rain showers. This will help take care of the remaining ice/snow on many surfaces it hasn’t been removed from, and while not completely eliminating the snow pack from the recent storm, will make a significant reduction to it.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Periods of snow or snow showers except rain/mix South Coast arriving west to east during the afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers early, then clearing. Snow accumulations of a coating to 1 inch expected, except no accumulation South Coast and Cape Cod beyond brief dustings early at night. Lows 10-17. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10 at times.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Cold front approaches from the west December 10 with mild, breezy weather ahead of it along with rain showers. A turn to windy, colder, and dry weather behind the front December 11. A clipper type disturbance may bring light snow or snow showers at some point December 12 followed by mainly dry but cold weather. We may be watching a system evolving to the southwest of the region by the end of the period. This part of the forecast is uncertain, as the period of time this threat exists begins about December 14 and this threat would be here only if the evolution was on the quicker side.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 15-19)
The latest idea is that cold air will be more dominant but some southern jet stream moisture may try to initiate some type of storminess that could pass near to or south of the region with a snow/mix threat somewhere during the first half of this period. We will have to watch for that, and then more dry and chilly weather to end the period.

55 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    With Philips final confirmed info on Logan, here is my revised spreadsheet.
    Note: On Tuesday, Logan received more snow than JP due to it being closer
    to the low and the resultant snow bands. We came out ahead because we stayed snow longer in JP on Sunday.

    Oh well, it all evens out in the end and on average JP will come ahead of Logan
    on the season totals.

    revised spreadsheet. Thank you Philip.

    https://imgur.com/a/mETtTte

    1. I think the term is rather quaint. I like it. Of course I am an old timer, so I can really relate to that term. 🙂

      1. Remember those old portable TV’S that you tuned into tv stations like a radio station? I kind of miss those. Now that everything is digital you’d need a digital antenna to make it work I think.

    2. Ditto JPD. My kids will often say they are taping something rather than recording or DVRing. And they range from 32 to 38. My son has just revamped my old KLH stereo and far prefers records

      Ahhhhhh the good old days 😉

      1. Funny how a lot of the old terminology still sticks a little when it has lost its meaning. Like “rewinding” a video online. Rewinding made sense with physical media because you were rewinding the film in the media you were playing it on.

  7. I see the clipper system coming Friday.

    Feels like we haven’t had a lot the last few winters.

    Perhaps with a more dominant winter trof this cold season, we’ll see more. Always like the ones that get their feet wet traveling just south of New England.

    1. Agree, but it doesn’t look like this one will get it’s feet wet. Perhaps a toe or 2 or perhaps it retreats up the beach a ways.

      1. Looks like tomorrow afternoon so I’m suspecting that one will keep us here for some time salting making sure everything is safe .

      1. Which means the snow blankets areas farther North as per usual.

        I always say clippers always track farther North than modeled, except when they don’t.

  9. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history back in 2003 we were in the begins a big early season Nor’easter. Peabody, MA got over 30 inches of snow which I believe was the highest snow total from this storm.

  11. Hopefully one of those coastal storms will pan out as were going to lose a lot of the snow pack early next week. If we get the snow pack back hopefully it will be on the ground for Christmas.

  15. Got time for a more offshore track next weekend with EURO one that starts with wintry precipitation over the interior before going over to rain.

      1. Right now, way too warm and way too close to the coast as a hugger or even inside runner as Barry would call it.

        And yes, there is time. We shall see. Well worth watching this
        baby. I hope it is not a rain maker.

  17. I do not think this storm ends up as warm as modeled. Come mid month, we have +PNA, -EPO, and some signals the NAO (which is back positive now) is going to start to dropping again to more neutral levels or perhaps even negative by then.

    MJO probably not much of a factor right now. It’s a weak 2 and trending more neutral as we get into mid month.

  18. TK I know it’s early but what would percentage would you give of having a White Christmas this year?

    1. Good lord. I’ve really had it with rain, especially cold rain. The water table is up again, after a brief period during which it was lower, and so that means flooding as I live submerged. It’s cost me several thousand dollars this year.

  20. Pattern screams cold and snowy. Been a while since we’ve had that for December. I for one appreciate it a lot more this time of year vs Feb and March 🙂

    1. I love a snowy December too. Been two years but before that much to long

      And TK found the missing spotlights. Thanks for pushing them up with your submarine

  22. Guidance has been consistent in showing a cutter early next week. Meteorological winter this year started with a bang across interior SNE.

  23. Is it ever going to be possible for the B’s to get off to a lead in a game? Their track record has been super lately but it’s always come-from-behind wins. Ugh! Down 1-0 after the 1st.

  24. JJ I can only assign the white Christmas chance for Boston as slightly above climatology average at this point. If we get to December 15 with more than a few inches of snow on the ground there, it’ll jump by quite a bit.

    1. I very much hope that we’ll see a cold and snowy finish to December. But, I’m taking a wait and see approach.

  25. JJ, Roger Goodell must intervene and fire Jason Garrett now. Assert commissioner’s privilege by claiming that the Dallas owner Jones is suffering from senility. Of course I am kidding. But, this situation has gotten so bad. A good team looks totally disinterested and unmotivated. It’s obvious to anybody watching that the coach should go, if only to shake up the team. I don’t get it.

  26. Joshua I am so frustrated with this team with another loss and now have a 6-7 record. Too much talent on this team to be below 500. Jason Garrett needs to go.

    1. And the craziest part is the Skins still have a shot at the division.

      No worse franchise in football right than my Skins.

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