Saturday Forecast

49 Comments

9:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)
A dry weekend, coldest today and tonight, and then moderating Sunday as high pressure, which delivers the cold air initially, slips to the south and starts to help circulate milder air northeastward into southeastern New England. The next storm system is going to take a track through the Great Lakes and help strengthen a southwesterly air flow Monday and Tuesday, which will be very mild but also feature rain showers. Some of the rain may be heavy enough, combined with melting snow, to create some minor flooding. A strong cold front will come through later Tuesday. What remains to be seen is whether or not a wave of low pressure forms on the front to bring a period of snow Wednesday as cold air returns. We should at least see a few snow showers as a weak disturbance comes across the region.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-5 deepest valleys, 6-11 other interior rural areas, 12-17 most suburbs, 18-23 urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady 33-40 evening, may rise slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, some of which may be heavy. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Areas of fog. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely. Temperatures fall through 40s into 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind NW-N 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)
One or possibly two low pressure areas may impact the weather any time in the December 13-15 window with a chance of rain and/or snow. Generally dry and cold weather should start and end the period although a clipper low may be near by late December 16.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Clipper low may be nearby or departing to start the period. Next storm signal is around December 20-21 for a rain and/or snow threat.

49 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK!

    JJ, I remember that storm in March 2005 well. The back-end snow was impressive. In the wake of that storm it got very cold in SNE for a couple of days. Similar to the cold we experienced in early March this year. We seem to get that almost every year. I think early March has been (often much) colder than early December at least 10 out of the last 15 years.

    I’m not convinced the rest of month is going to turn out snowy and cold in Boston. In fact, I’m skeptical. I’d like to see it, but there’s quite a bit of model discrepancy. And, the positioning of lows and even cold highs is too variable for my liking.

    1. The signals are tilted rather significantly in the direction of above normal precipitation and slightly below normal temperature.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Mark, looking to update the snow spreadsheet. Did you receive any measurable
    snow yesterday? I suspect not, but wanted to check. thanks

  3. Thanks tk. A lot of holiday events in towns today. I’m considering doing the holiday stroll in Cohasset. Anyone else doing anything fun?

    1. A bit of morning decluttering to some of my favorite holiday tunes and a couple non-holiday songs as well.

      Visiting Boston Metro High Railers model railroad club open house in Wilmington early this afternoon where I will have lunch and ask about where to get my 1954 Lionel train locomotive tuned up.

      After that, a walk at Willards Woods in Lexington, then a visit to Burlington MA for their annual tree / common lighting celebration which includes a fireworks display as well.

      After that, off to get the Christmas tree and decorate it while watching the Bruins play this evening.

      All along I will be keeping tabs on the remaining 6 high school football super bowl games which started at 9AM and will wrap up sometime around 10PM tonight.

      It’s a rare Saturday night at home so I’ll probably end the night with a couple Christmas movies including one of my zillion versions of A Christmas Carol. 🙂

      2. I heard a promotion on the radio this morning of a tree lighting and fireworks display tonight at 5:00 pm in Taunton.

        When I heard “fireworks” I immediately thought of you TK. But I see that you already have similar plans. 🙂

    2. Chain of lights is in Sutton. There is a ring of trees on Sutton common that are in honor or in memory of individuals. We have one for Mac. It says “Papa, sometimes the most important things are the the things you can’t see”

      My youngest and her oldest’s idea when we moved here. They had just put up with tree when daughter took pic so it is leaning a bit still. They will all be lit tonight.

      https://imgur.com/a/lCZbgyr

  5. The other T.K. (Tim Kelly) was your first to venture a guess on Wednesday’s snowfall: 2-4 inches. I’m not that brave. 🙂 He said it last night at 11PM. He’s been in for Pete the last few days. I like Tim’s ability to explain the weather during his presentation. And he always has a signature finish: “That’s our forecast!” …

    Anybody remember “Altitude Lou” McNally who would always end his telecasts with “And that’s the way it looks from here!”

      1. Was he even an actual met? I don’t think so.

        I seem to remember him for maybe a few laughs more than actual meteorology. 😉

  7. Thanks Tk spending the day getting much needed rest after a very busy work week .I am hoping to do a fall cleanup tomorrow if this snow melts today but highly unlikely.

    1. Snow doesn’t tend to melt with temps in the 20s most of the day so I’d say highly unlikely. 😉 We’ll lose a lot of the snow (most of it in many areas) by late Tuesday. But we may start putting it right back shortly after that.

      Dec 11, 13-15, 19-21, 23-25 all target periods of time for potential snow events.

      2. I get it though we have lost a decent amount since Tuesday and I think today is beautiful out I’m just in a sweatshirt. Sounds good regarding the snow threats just nothing past the 23 please . I thought it was going to warm up around Christmas time ?

        1. Temp says 31 in pembroke but feels Warmer with the bright sun shining today just again a great weather day .

    2. I know I’ve said it here before but I’ll repeat…

      I worked with Al briefly in the private sector and he was very very quiet and shy. The on-air personality was in huge contrast to what he was like in the office. He was also very quiet when I ran into him at the Hampton Beach Funarama arcade. Also saw him at a few conferences. But I’ve always loved his on-air personality. Fun stuff. 🙂

      1. Awesome. Happy you repeated that because I honestly didn’t
        remember. He is still broadcasting anywhere?

        He was briefly here. Channel 7? I think.

        1. I don’t believe he worked in the Boston TV market at all.

          As far as I know he has a few radio slots and a web page. Not sure what else he’s up to these days.

          1. Oh brother. A little too much “schtick” for my taste. Glad he was never in Boston. 😉

            No offense I hope TK. 🙂

            1. His style may not have been for everyone, but I’ve seldom, in all the years he’s been known, met anybody who didn’t admire Al for his spunk. He actually knew how to forecast too, which was a plus. 🙂

          2. I swear I saw him on in Boston very briefly.
            Else how would I have ever even known about him??

            Of course, My memory is mush so I dunno.

  11. re: Al Kaprielian

    I was racking my brain. I think the reason I thought he was on air in Boston
    briefly was because our cable service, for a short time, included channel 50
    in Derry, NH which is where I must have seen good ole Al. Mystery solved. 🙂

  14. Thanks TK.

    I’m not entirely sure how the rest of this month is going to play out. The cold/snowy start has not been very well in line with my thoughts on how the month would go. However, as we head into a strong +AO/NAO regime with a less favorable MJO, I’m not convinced the cold and snow are going to flow as easily as some believe. I’ll wager the next two weeks have about a +1 to +3F anomaly on average for most parts of SNE, but with some sharp ups and downs. There will be several opportunities for widespread precip as TK has also indicated, but with a lot of ups and downs in the temperatures I expect ptype to be a challenge for the rest of the month. We can safely say we’re looking at a rainstorm Monday-Tuesday, but many questions beyond then…

      1. Still feel that’s what we do. DRY back side of winter. The more I look at things though the more I see cold being far more dominant than milder stuff.

  16. Today, at least on the GFS, as well as the currently running 00z GFS, the 12/14, 12/15 southern stream system is tracking SE of New England.

    As currently projected, not a snow maker as a high is in retreat and a northern stream low is to our northwest.

    But instead of a very mild, phased cutter, this would probably be a raw, chilly rain, with perhaps some ice in the normally colder inland valley locations.

Comments are closed.