Monday Forecast

117 Comments

7:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
A two-day warm-up starts this week off, but you won’t have sunshine to enjoy it with, just clouds, rain showers, and areas of fog, as a relatively humid southwesterly air flow meets a cold snow cover. But that snow cover will take a significant hit and the mild air and rain will help eliminate icy areas from side roads, walk ways, and driveways. But as a strong cold front passes by to end the brief warm spell Tuesday night, we’ll turn the snow machine back on as moisture lingers to meet the incoming cold, and a light to moderate snowfall is likely through Wednesday morning, enough to have some impact on travel. After this moves out, cold high pressure moves in for Thursday into Friday, but clouds will begin to return later Friday ahead of the next low pressure system, which we’ll discuss in the next section. Onto the details for the next 5 days first…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers arrive this morning and become widespread through afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Widespread rain showers, some heavy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, changing to sleet then snow west to east. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snow likely morning, accumulation a coating to 2 inches South Coast, 2-4 inches elsewhere. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Temperatures steady 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Widespread icy ground. Lows 16-21. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near 10.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
We’ve been keeping an eye on the period around the December 14-15 weekend for several days following a potential storm for that time frame. It still looks like one will impact the area initially, but the thinking is a little different from previously. The upper air set-up should allow the initial system to be close enough for mix/rain instead of snow, favoring December 14, with cool-down / dry-out for December 15. Colder air would settle in after that for the December 16-18 period and a low pressure wave coming along around December 17 could bring a mix/snow threat. This reflects a pair of more separated systems instead of two much closer together, but there is still some uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Watching for potential precipitation-producing systems around December 20 and 23.

117 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Had ice on my back walkway this am from the precip this morning. Still waiting for the south wind to arrive here. Sitting at 38.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    What a miserable day, but then we just had a beautiful weekend, so who am I
    to complain?

    We “could” possibly go above the climatology average snowfall for December if all
    goes well tomorrow night into Wednesday AM. Some of the models have been
    backing off a bit. 12Z Nam is cooking now.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    14 years ago this afternoon was the most intense weather event of my lifetime: the severe short term winter storm for Rhode Island and EMass, December 9, 2005.

    I remember it was raining at 1:30. It was whiteout conditions with zero visibility. As I was walking to my car in the school parking lot, I could hear the tall pine trees on our campus cracking and falling and not knowing where they were going to land.

    105 mph on Block Island; 101 in Wellfleet; 100 in Orleans; 96 mph in Eastham “before the anemometer was knocked down by a falling tree”; 81 mph in Taunton.

    Random snowfall amounts from 1:30-4 pm: Avon CT 12.0; 9.9 in Taunton; Newburyport 16.0; Goshen 12.0; Littleton 15.7; Keene NH 16.8; Burrillville RI 12.0

    There was thundersnow (I witnessed it in Middleborough) and waterspouts in Chatham.

    My source is a NWS public information statement from December 13, 2005. It’s from a hard copy I printed. I cannot find it on-line anymore.

    2. That event has to be on my top 5 list. What a finale to a long storm.

      Intense, quick hitting and coming at the start of the evening commute with plenty of thunder/lightning.

      1. If I recall correctly, it stopped the evening commute in its tracks. Hours upon hours for people to get home.

          1. Macs was upwards of five. He was leading two women from work. They sat on rt 30 over 128 in newton for over an hour.

        3. Yup.

          I was driving a standard shift Mustang at the time
          and it took me 1 1/2 hours to travel a mere 3.4 miles. 🙂

    3. I remember that one also. I was 8 months pregnant and was petrified driving home from work. Thankfully I only had about a 4 mile drive but it was the longest 4 miles of my life.

      2. I was working at a law firm in Boston at the time (Contract work). We were about 15 floors up and I remember the thunder/lightning creating a vivid and surreal hour or two during the afternoon. Our Christmas party was that night an I remember the snow had stopped by the time we left to go to the party but it was blustery and cold and the footing was pretty bad.

    4. It took mac hours to get home also. We had thunder snow in framingham. At one point I couldn’t see the houses across the street. And that was one of many. I believe there was a repeat 2007 and my mind won’t let me recall the other years

      EXCEPT 41 years ago today with thunder snow over the Charles River that mac and I watched on our wedding night. December 9 is one of those dates that just loves snow. We had a storm two years ago today.

  12. Thanks TK.

    2 hour delay for Coventry schools this AM. Now wind blown rain showers. Rain came down very heavy for a time.

    12z RGEM is much more robust for Wed. This is the depiction at 48 hours at the end of its run…..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019120912&fh=48

    This is the Kuchera snow only through 12z Wed and still snowing….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2019120912&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  17. I try to make a sporadic post or two about this topic especially this time of year; Joshua may appreciate this as I believe he’s an economics guy… it’s a hobby of mine as well. If I didn’t work in NWS I think I’d enjoy working in the energy sector. Anyhow, natural gas prices are down sharply today on big changes in expectations for the weather over the CONUS over the next few weeks. I could’ve told you on Saturday that we’d probably see a move like this today based on a dramatic shift to warmer weather in the long range ensemble guidance. About a 6% downward move in natural gas, pushing prices to their lowest in several months; that would equate to a more than 1500 point drop in the Dow. So Wall Street is betting big on warm weather to come… but if you think the latest models are wrong and that the next few weeks will turn out colder… go buy some natural gas futures on a discount today 😉

    https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/120413-natural-gas-futures-down-sharply-on-big-move-warmer-in-weather-models

    1. That’s incredible it would change that much over a couple model runs. I’m sure those prices will skyrocket again in the near future once the models pin down the timing of the return to more consistent colder weather in the longer range.

    1. Eric Fisher is going with 1-3 but mentions that it could drop more if the low slows down. Something to watch for JP. Could be a surprise or two.

  23. Anyway that storm next week can come in Tuesday and stay away from Wednesday? Still have plenty of time but I’m heading out of town Thursday and don’t want that storm anywhere near us!

    1. If that wave impacts this area, I like Tuesday over Wednesday right now.

      I’d have to confirm this, but I believe in the last 20 years, it has snowed on December 17 more than any other day in the month.

  24. Upon review of the 12z info, no changes to the post above. 🙂 Hope everybody is having the best day possible, and if not, I hope it gets better.

    I have a little cold, but emphasis on the word little. No complaints. 🙂

  26. Not for nothing, given Eric’s post, the NAMS REALLY want to slow down onset
    of the snow, whatever there is of it. 🙂

      2. I take that back. I think I was referring back to some Earlier runs
        where snow onset was around 6Z. Now clearly in the 9Z
        to 12Z time frame, but it was like that with the 12Z and 6Z runs.
        Oh well, me thinks my brain is fried, plus I think I am
        Christmased out. I have been helping my wife with packaging up
        for shipment. 3 packages ready to go out tomorrow AM, plust
        shipped one package to Australia this morning. Boy, do I love
        spending time at the USeless Post Office. They are simply
        PATHETIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
        I’d use UPS, but it would cost me a fortune to ship this package to Australia. As it was the USeless PO charged $96.

        )!@(&#*^!@&*^#*&!^@&*#$%@*&#$*^!@&*#%!&@%$*&@#%$%!@&#$!*&@^$*&!%*@&$%!*&%$^*&!^@&$^!&*$

    2. FWIW, the WRF suite of models from 12Z all push the front off
      quickly leaving virtually no snow in the Boston Area.

      I smell another BUSTORAMA!!!!!!

  31. JPD – Just curious. How is the USPS “useless” as you say? Via their tv commercials I get the impression that sending a package is quite easy, if anything.

    1. How about exceeding long lines with one stinken clerk to service anyone.
      piss-poor staffing planning. Useless!!#%%%@$$@$$#$$$

        1. Sorry to hear that. You would think there would be clerks at every station this time of year. I haven’t sent a Christmas package in awhile.

      2. Did they get cut too. I know it was threatened.

        I have a small post office nearby. The woman is awesome. But mail from Sutton is exceedingly slow

        Personally, I’d take usps over fedex ground and ups. Amazon delivery is beyond horrific

  34. I am rooting for that snow. After BDL has 16.5 inches for December why not go for the record and have the snowiest December on record.

  35. The hrrr would lay down a blanket of robust sleet upon which the snow would accumulate making for some Nasty road conditions come Wednesday AM.
    We will need to watch for that.

    1. 1-2 in Boston should be tops seems to be what I’m hearing more like low end . I think freeze up will be the big issue vs snow which is worse .

  40. Tk can you work on getting rain out of here by say…10:00?

    Now that Mac has arranged for the rain to clear snow off of deck seating, I really would like some time outside to look up.

  41. I hope the snows next week and the week after materialize. We’ll see. My daughter is visiting from England on Christmas Eve. Hopefully, if there’s snow, the snow won’t delay flights.

    I like USPS, and I like my local post office. Much prefer to FedEx. 1. FedEx is way, way overpriced. 2. FedEx never leaves packages in my vestibule. Always a note telling me to go to an office about 1.5 miles from my apartment. I usually wind up picking up `overnight’ packages at least 48 hours after they were sent. 3. Then the bureaucracy begins. Yes, the private sector has bureaucracy, too, only worse than government in some instances. First, the wait. They can never find my package right away. Then the checking of my ID. They’re worse than the INS at Logan Airport. License has to come out of my wallet (they won’t accept me showing it to them from the translucent, plastic cover in my wallet), fill out an electronic form, and usually go to another waiting area to get the package! UPS isn’t much better, but at least they try to put my packages in the vestibule by ringing buzzers to let them into the vestibule (FedEx never does that).

    1. Never had an issue with Fed Ex or UPS. The post office, forgettaboutit! They
      SUCK!((#*!()@*#)(!*@)(#*!)(@*#)(!*@#)(*!)@(#*!(*@#(*(!*)(@#*(!*@#)

  42. Interesting discussion from the NWS:

    So at this early stage our preliminary snowfall forecast could range
    as little as a coating to an inch (our 10% percentile snow forecast)
    to possibly 2-4 inches (50% percentile snow forecast) if arctic
    short wave verifies stronger with mid level flow backing more to the
    SSW and with longer duration yielding higher qpf. Also can`t
    completely dismiss the more extreme NAM/HREF solution with 4+
    inches, albeit a low prob but within the envelope of solutions.
    Nevertheless will need to watch this portion of the forecast given
    its potential impact to the Wed morning commute.

    1. hmm, is this why the HRDPS is more bullish? More experience (being Canadian) dealing with Arctic short waves??? 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. That sounds about right again I don’t think the snow will be the issue ( will have minor precipitation of that ) I think respectfully it will be icing issues & that’s worse at a very bad time the morning commute

      1. The HRRR major cycle runs (0z and 12z, and I think 6z and 18z) go out to 36 hours now.

        00z GFS is a little beefier than that. See Kuchera snowmap below…

  46. 00z GFS still pretty juicy with a swath of 3-4″ for most and pockets of 5″ amounts for Wed AM….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019121000&fh=54&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

    Also GFS now agrees with the 12z Euro on a snowstorm threat for next Wed 12/18…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019121000&fh=198

    Kuchera Total Snow for both storms (second storm delivers a good 6″ especially Pike south)….

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019121000&fh=240&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  49. After a quick look at the 00z data, there will not likely be any change to the above ideas on tomorrow’s update.

    Hope nobody thinks this is going to be a decent snowstorm Wednesday. It’s going to be a minor to borderline isolated moderate snow event (mostly minor). Never expected anything more than that.

    1. 00z CMC agrees with GFS and Euro on a storm around the same time middle of next week but track is right over us, delivering snow to mix to rain.

      Active period ahead for sure….

  53. Yawn…

    Good morning as I awake to prospects of a BUSTORAMA for tonight/tomorrow
    AM. NOW, it clearly looks like a coating to 1 inch at best. What a BUMMER!!
    I doubt there will be a last minute change at this point, but one never knows.

    2. Latest SREF ensemble Mean snow for Boston: 2.99 inches. I think not, but
      time will tell.

      time to make the donuts. 🙂

    4. There isn’t really anything to bust. It was to be a minor event anyway, with minor adjustments made to the snowfall forecast, which I did to focus it city to southeastern MA on today’s update.

    2. I actually explained that one yesterday, saying that I thought it would be 2 more separated systems instead of a double-barrel colder one. First one is wet, second one white. It’s just been posted again in today’s blog update.

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