Wednesday Forecast

155 Comments

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
After 2 warmer days that took away most of if not all of the snow/ice on the ground, mother nature has been putting some of the snow back as a decent slug of moisture has been moving over the region after the passage of a cold front. As of the writing of this blog, the steadiest swath of snow extended from Cape Ann through Metro Boston southwestward to eastern CT and eastward through much of RI and southeastern MA, where up to a few inches of snow will be falling. Back to the west, while many areas saw 1-3 inches, a few 4 to 5 inch amounts were also observed as well. All of this will be clearing out from west to east during the morning and midday hours today, and then we’re into a cold air mass for about 48 hours into Friday as a bubble of high pressure moves across the region. The next low pressure area will be a rather fast-moving system moving south to north and crossing right over southeastern New England. This will happen Friday night through Saturday with a healthy rain event for the region as there will not be enough cold air surface or aloft to support anything frozen. So once again any snow that has fallen with this current system will be gone by the weekend. As the Saturday storm departs via eastern Canada, a gusty wind and cooling air will take place Sunday, with drier conditions except the risk of a passing rain or snow shower.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with snow ending west to east after additional accumulation of up to 2 inches and locally up to 3 inches, favoring Metro Boston to northern RI southeastward. Clearing west to east this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill 0-10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north. Temperatures rising into 40s. Wind E to SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 47-54, mildest southeastern MA. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, becoming variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog early. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Temperatures falling slowly into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
Dry and cold December 16. Next low pressure threatens the region with snow/mix/rain depending on its track December 17. Lingering snow showers behind this system December 18. Fair, seasonably chilly December 19. Next precipitation threat occurs at the end of the period but too early for details on that possible system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
One or two systems may impact the region during the days leading up to and including Christmas with a couple bouts of precipitation. Leaning toward a colder pattern and systems tracking near or south of the region but with low confidence at this time.

155 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks Tk unless it changes Boston will not receive much at least in the Roxbury/ Brookline area where I am .

    1. About an inch fell there in the last hour. But again it wasn’t about the amount but the timing. Will be over there by mid morning.

        1. The way us mets were talking? I’m not sure what you’re talking about. The temps are right where they were forecast to be at this time today.

          The coldest weather will be tonight and tomorrow. We were not going to instantly be there. I think you may have misunderstood the message. Nobody said it was going to be all that cold this morning, just cold enough overnight and this morning to support snow, which was expected to accumulate up to a few inches. Both verified pretty much to the letter.

          1. I thought I heard them saying big crash in temperature all day yesterday I may have misunderstood but the rest of the crew was saying the same thing and the Mets saying that first layer would be all Ice that definitely was not the case here at the hospital .

            1. I never heard anybody say temperature crash and I know I certainly didn’t say it.

              though I must correct one thing that I said if anything we ended up with an inch or two more snowfall in some areas than I had but we knew that was a possibility with the uncertainty.

    1. The eastward motion is accelerating now because of a very minor wave that moved by on the front.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Heading out. Have to do some clean up, take a measurement and off to work. 🙂

    Later…

  5. Answer to yesterday’s quiz.

    On the first day of summer, the sun is 71 degrees above the horizon at the maximum. On the first day of winter how high does the sun get?
    A. 40 degrees above the horizon
    B. 35 degrees above the horizon
    C. 24 degrees above the horizon
    D. 10 degrees above the horizon

    The correct answer is C.

  6. Thanks TK!
    Looks like the forecast verified with my area receiving the higher end of the projections. Looks like an active period ahead.

  10. I actually made a point of recording all five Boston TV weathercasts at 6 and 11 last evening and none of them indicated a temperature crash last night and this morning.

    As far as snow amounts most of us were in general agreement with Minor details and the National Weather Service was definitely the best at getting the finer points down.

    I like heartedly joked about their 126 inch prediction when in fact it was right on the money.

        1. I’m not exactly sure sue but I don’t find it particularly accurate I do not get that information

          1. I should say I was told freezing up but again I’m not part of that chain of command . Anyways misunderstood have a great day all . Sue my son had a 2 hr delay .

  11. Thanks, TK. Good morning…
    Snowing at a pretty good clip now in Middleborough.
    Visibility down to about less than half a mile.
    About an inch. Can still see the tops of the unmowed blades of grass outside my classroom window. How’s that for a scientific measurement of snow???? 🙂

  12. Good morning again.

    In the office now after clean up and measurement and also I might add the easiest
    commute I have had in a long time, an absolute piece of cake. 🙂

    Measured 3.0 inches on the level in JP, with about half of that on the street.

    I wonder what the joke port will report???????

  13. Thank you TK. Had about an inch and a half at home this morning. Schools opened at regular time which makes life easier for a full-time working Mom. 🙂

  14. We got less than an inch at my house but 15 miles to the east there was 5″ reports. So a tough forecast to pinpoint with such broad ranges within close proximity.

    Think wet with a general 1.0-1.5″ of rain this weekend. Temps generally in the upper 40s as opposed to 50s.

    Tuesday I am leaning colder, more snow, less mix or rain, but less in the way of precip.

    After that, too far away.

    One pet peeve – when I or others say to people that there is a threat or a potential storm around the 20th, 10 days out, that does not mean it is carved in stone or it is going to be a big one, or snow. I have had two people recently come up to me and say I thought you said we were getting a storm on this date or that date…A threat or potential is not a guarantee. It is also why I really dislike the 7 and 10 day graphics. It puts the TV folks in an impossible situation. A snowflake on day 10 gathers more attention than a sun on day 2. I know you all know that, just a rant to make me feel better.

  15. The burst probably put down 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch, on top of the 1/2 to 3/4 inch that had fallen up to that point.

    We’ve decreased in intensity back to light to borderline moderate snow, from a 30 minute burst of heavier snow.

    The warmth of the last 2 days really did help to warm the pavements.

          1. Here in the part of Quincy where I’m at it’s still wispy thin flakes. I hear in Hingham it’s still going stronger so definitely parts that are going to perform better than expected to the high end of the predictions I’d wager.

  18. As of 7am Logan reported two inches of snow. I believe that puts them close to if not a little bit above normal for snowfall for December with 9.3 inches of snow. At BDL three inches fell putting them at 19.5 inches for December. This got to be close to if not in the top 10 for snowiest December’s on record for BDL.

    1. Thanks Jimmy. For Logan to get normal snowfall for any given month lately is a success story in of itself. 🙂

  19. Thank you, TK.

    Just another week in SNE:

    – Sunny and cold weekend (interior saw the goose egg, I believe, on Saturday night)

    – Up to 60F with episodic, balmy showers Monday and Tuesday, melting pretty much all the snow from last week

    – Some snow this morning after a fairly dramatic temperature dropoff overnight

    – Back to sunny and seasonably cold tomorrow

    – The balmies again starting Friday night as more rain moves in and temperatures rise into the middle 50s in spots by Saturday morning

    – The yo-yo oscillations continue Sunday as temperatures crash into the 30s and the sun returns

    I find it fascinating, though I’m not a big fan of this kind of weather. Like Nancy Pelosi, I don’t like the word “hate” and use it sparingly. But, I will say that I hate rain in winter.

  21. Thanks TK!

    I’m impressed by the totals coming out of SNE this morning. 3-5″ definitely would’ve been a better forecast than 1-3. Well done by NWS Boston. Down this way, a better behaved forecast with generally near to below an inch of snow in my area, in line with or a little below expectations. So not an overachiever everywhere, but definitely for you guys!

  22. Matt Noyes favors snow over rain for next Tuesday at the moment, but he didn’t totally rule out rain either.

  24. From Jeremy Reiner
    Check this out….with today’s 2.0” in Boston the seasonal total is already up to 9.3”. It took until FEBRUARY 20th *last winter* to reach that same seasonal amount.

  25. Snow seems to be winding down here in Coventry CT. We received 4.1” of snow and I think that will be the final total. 24 degrees. It was really coming down hard for awhile overnight with snow rates at an inch per hour for awhile.

    School was cancelled here today. The side roads are not in great shape, especially with the snow having just ended and temps now down in the mid 20’s

    1. I love it when systems over achieve. Credit to the NWS where they did indicate that there could be swath of 4-6 inches. For all the trashing I do of them, they nailed this one.

  26. Yes I know that the National Weather Service did not predict 126 inches of snow.

    That was a very nice voice text error. 😀

  28. We sure are piling up the snow down here.

    I’d have to venture 3-4 inches on non-pavement surfaces and maybe 2 inches on the roads.

    1. Same in Plymouth. Was only in the office for an hour before I had leave to go to another building and my car was completely covered again.

  29. JMA, you’re correct. When TV mets predict a “chance” of snow next Tuesday. It is explicitly expressed in probabilistic terms: a “chance.” One week out it’s very hard to pin down the precise percentage chance, let alone snow (or rain) amounts.

    Similarly, as an economist I predicted that there was a good chance of a recession by beginning of 2020. I’m the first to admit that my prediction appears to be wrong. However, I was careful to express my prediction in probabilistic terms: “good chance.”

    It’s when our predictions – whether as mets or economists – are expressed in definite terms that problems occur.

  33. Partial sun here. Had this been several inches, it would have been a bit of a pain to move around. With a couple inches, just push away. 🙂

    Next step, let’s try for a fluffy snow. We haven’t had one of those yet. So far they have been on the wet side.

  38. I have a love – hate relationship with this type of snow. I love the way it sticks to everything and creates a beautiful landscape, but I hate how it jams up my anemometer! 😉

  41. I didn’t realize weather could be bi-polar ……

    Snow last week, 62F and rainy Monday and Tuesday, 4 inches of snow Wednesday, warm rainstorm Saturday, next Tues/Wed snowstorm?

    This is exhausting !!

    1. 12z GFS maintains the cutter theme with a snow to mix to rain event.

      12z CMC is in between the GFS and Euro.

  43. Longer range….

    GFS is a near miss with a large coastal storm missing to our southeast on 12/23.

    Then, holiday week shenanigans with a snow to mix to rain event Christmas night into 12/26 and a follow-up coastal storm brewing for 12/27-28.

    Long ways off but the theme is for an active pattern to continue.

  45. Thank you, Mark, for sharing the model information. I think we can call this model mayhem. Ah, if this were Labrador, even cutters would produce snow. Of course, we’d get sick of the snow and cold after a while.

  46. On a totally different topic, commercials. I can’t stand them, at least most of them. But, there have been a few this year that I’ve really liked and appreciated. 1. The Pedigree dog food ad with the child in a hospital who asks “another treatment?” after the nurse says “we’re going to try something different.” Dog enters the hospital room and goes right up to the little girl. There’s something about this ad that really works. 2. AT&T’s “ok is not good enough” ad with the surgeon who “just got reinstated … sort of.” Again, compelling. Car and beer ads are all so awful. Always have been, always will be. The Geico ads are weird, not funny, and almost disconcerting. None of the other ads are memorable or compelling, at least not for me. I apologize for the diversion from weather.

    2. I Loathe commercials. I will NOT listen to them on the radio. My presets are
      getting worn out.

      On TV, I can’t stand them and neither can my wife. Disgusting!!!
      We try to watch mostly PBS or Netflix and Starz, both of which we pay for
      a monthly subscription. Commercials are excessive and they ruin
      our viewing pleasure. It is totally and completely shameful. Never did
      TV ever have so many commercials! Never!

  47. No matter how you slice it, it is shaping up to be a snowier than average December, even if we oscillate between rain and snow events or even have mixed events.

    Speaking of that, does anyone have a final Logan total? Is the 2.0 inches
    from 7:20 this morning the final deal? I suspect they should have at least 1/2 inch more.

    1. Thought for a long time that December would be the snowiest, relative to normal, of the 3 months of meteorological winter. Still do.

  48. I couldn’t even begin to describe the chaos I had to deal with today at work, so I’m not going to. I’m just laughing it off. Anyway. Sitting down for a few minutes and some Johnny Mathis Christmas tunes and a cup of tea with my son before we turn on the Christmas lights for the evening. I’ll be out visiting tonight but it will be a nice break. 🙂

    No changes to current thoughts regarding the weather as far out as I went on my blog discussion this morning.

      1. Johnny is one of the classic voices of Christmas for me. Andy Williams is another. It’s funny, 2 of my all time favorite Christmas albums, both his and Andy’s were recorded in 1963, which was before I was born.

        1. Johnny Mathis and the Ray Conniff were the two albums we listened to most when I was a kid. My dad loved them.

          1. I listened to 2 Ray Conniff albums today. My other favorite. 😉

            Ray was from Attleboro Massachusetts. 🙂

            1. Never knew that, thanks for that interesting bit of information. I smile and then cry every time I hear one of his songs.

        2. Wife and I saw Johnny Matthis Live in concert
          at the old Melody Tent in Framingham. Yes, I know I am dating myself as it was long ago, but he was AWESOME!

      1. I’m tempted after today, but I’ll settle for the Advent Calendar tea of the day with Nate in a few minutes. 🙂

        1. For medical reasons, I quit alcohol consumption about 10 years ago. Just as well as I LIKED it too much. 🙂

  49. Early Sunday morning, the 18Z NAM shows a follow-up coastal.
    favorable 850 mb temps a mere 140 miles to the West of Boston.

    WHAT IF????? One never knows. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  50. I loathe all the people driving around with 2 inches or more of snow on the roof of their cars. Makes me nuts.

    1. Ha! You should have seen my SUV this AM. In fact, looking out there now, there’s still a few inches up there. Ain’t nobody got time to clear that sh!t off 🙂

      2. I don’t know about Connecticut but in Massachusetts it’s against the law to have snow on top of that your vehicle. You would be a prime candidate to be pulled over.

    3. Once you get on the highway and drive fast enough, it all blows off. It’s a win win situation as it….
      A) Keeps the tailgaters away
      B) Naturally cleans the windshields of the cars behind me

      🙂

      1. Friend of mine got in a particularly bad accident when someones icy snow flew off the roof and shattered his windshield.

    4. I joke about it but I do usually do a pretty good job clearing it off. My roof is so high though, I usually cant get it all off, and I am pretty tall.

      Today though was bad, was in a rush and didn’t even bother.

      Phillip, you are correct in that you can actually be pulled over for “failure to secure a load” if you drive around with a large amount of snow on your vehicle. I don’t think only an inch or two would apply though.

  52. We were talking about J.M., Andy Williams, and Ray Conniff earlier. The Ray Conniff singers perform what is my favorite version of traditional lyrics for this tune. Ray was a genius arranger. He took this tune that can be rather monotonous but eventually the arrangement starts messing with the song’s meter and it makes it quite enjoyable. It also is fun to hear the trading between male & female vocals as well as them being on opposite sides of the stereo sound spectrum.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R_zu-iKMvc

    1. I have all on my pandora list and some downloaded from Apple Music. Amazing talents. And Never hear Williams without thinking of your dad

  53. 2.8” at Logan which is a record for this date. The old was 2.7” (1986).

    Total snowfall to date = 10.1”

    Total snowfall for the month to date = 10.1”

    Normal for December = 9.0”

  57. Pete is onboard for snow next Tuesday. A good sign. 🙂

    Ch. 7 is onboard as well.

    Chs. 4, 5, NWS wimping out on “wintry mix” (rain/snow).

    1. You can add TK to the “wimp out” list because I’m not confident enough to call the precip one way or another, just leaning colder. 😉

      The potential event is 6 days away.

        2. I think they are all just doing whatever their style is or current comfort level. I could say I’m leaning heavily toward a colder scenario for Tuesday, which I am, but I’m not confident because a minor difference in the position of one area of high pressure will send that low west of us instead.

  61. “The moon on the crest of the new fallen snow
    Gave the luster of midday to objects below”

    Early..yes. But wow sure is lovely tonight

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