Thursday Forecast

72 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Weather systems will be on the move as we have an active pattern, driven by the polar jet stream but with contributions from the subtropical jet stream at times. First, we have a cold high pressure system moving in from the west today, a day that will be bright and cold, starting breezy and ending tranquil, and setting up a very cold night tonight. But as high pressure slips offshore by early Friday, we’ll see milder air and clouds. A storm system from the south will send its low pressure center northward through the region Friday night through very early Sunday – a rain event as mild air will be in place. There may be 2 main surges of rain with this system with a break in between. By Sunday, a consolidated and large low pressure system will be moving away via southeastern Canada, making that day cooler, drier, and windy. A narrow area of high pressure will bring dry and cold weather Monday but we’ll already see clouds later as the next system approaches…
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 interior valleys, 8-15 elsewhere except 15-20 urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north. Temperatures rising into 40s. Wind E to SE increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Overcast with rain likely morning. Cloudy with rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 10-20 MPH morning shifting to S afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain showers very early, then a sun/cloud mix with an additional passing rain or snow shower. Temperatures falling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
MONDAY: Sunshine, then clouds late. Highs 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Low pressure brings a risk of snow/ice/rain December 17. A few snow showers and colder December 18-19 with a polar air delivery from Canada. High pressure brings tranquil weather December 20-21 but on the colder side of average.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)
One more storm threat early in the period before a period of more tranquil weather arrives. Watching for the return of unsettled weather just after Christmas. Timing on this is uncertain so this is a low confidence forecast.

72 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Only had a few moments to look over charts, but the theme I hot was the system for 12/17 now looks to be suppressed and
    only provides a fringe with something like 1-3 inches of snow. mot enough for white Christmas.

          1. that is what the GFS and CMC say, however
            the Euro has all snow with a fringer as it passes
            a little too far South of us to nail us. We continue to monitor this model divergence.

  10. Thanks, TK…

    Boy, the full moon was beautiful with the snow last night!!!
    And, a breathtaking “moonset” on the commute this morning!!!!
    Wow!

      1. Sorry, I didn’t realize you already posted the model
        comparisons. 2 mugs of coffee and I’m still not awake!!

    3. Ha !

      As long as Logan is re-opened by December 26th …. and this won’t affect any school days, so let it rip !!

    1. Common theme ….

      those models with lower surface pressure, ie (more phasing) project a further west track.

      those models with a higher surface pressure and less phasing track further east.

      I think in this particular setup, a light to moderate snow event is the most likely cold scenario outcome, because with a split flow, a stronger storm with more precip is going to be a milder, less snowy event.

    1. Another one I remember well. My in laws were driving here from Charleston SC to see my oldests new pony and celebrate Santa Lucia.

      It’s the storm I’ve mentioned several times recently and the first time I recall having more than one day off from school. Framingham had three. Other than 78 of course

    2. That storm took forever to change over in Boston. It was mixing for a long time.
      I think Logan got 9 inches while we got 12 inches in JP.
      My Brother in Pascoag, RI, received about 36 inches of all snow.
      That was a beauty.

      I remember Mark Rosenthal being asked on air how much
      snow we could get AFTER the changeover and he said there was still potential
      for a foot of snow even after so much rain. 🙂

      1. What was amazing was that Quincy got ZIP!…nada!

        My dentist at the time was in North Quincy and I had an appointment the next day. I drove from Dorchester down Gallivan Blvd. and the SE Expressway was literally the cutoff between snow/bare ground. Cross the Neponset and a totally different world on either side.

  24. From Ryan Hanrahan with snowfall so far at BDL
    BDL at 19.5″ so far this season… that makes this the snowiest start to a season on record (through 12/11).

    1. That’s awesome!
      This was “I wish I had my camera” (my Canon SLR) moment. I drive east to work, so the moon was in the rearview all the way.

      1. Really? Do you think for 1 second that I would expect that
        model run to verify???? For a moment, I enjoyed the output. 🙂

        The Holy Crap Batman was for dramatic effect.

        1. I definitely know you don’t expect that to play out just like depicted. I like your HOLY CRAP BATMAN reactions. 🙂

        2. I believe a very small tiny little voice inside you said “this will never happen…. But… But maybe?” lmao!

    1. The GFS is having trouble figuring itself out at the moment. Neither one of the last 2 runs likely depicts anything resembling reality.

        1. No way. I favor colder systems heading toward Christmas. Assuming they impact the region of course.

          MJO theory, in part.

        2. CPC is currently carrying below normal temps & below normal precipitation for both 6-10 & 8-14 day periods.

  29. Well since it’s Throwback Thursday, I’ll share this…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9hR4Gg6b9w

    You can put this 2 hour soundtrack on and pretend you are shopping in Kmart at Christmastime 1974. This is the soundtrack that ran that holiday season in the stores. Sadly, Massachusetts will be losing their remaining Kmart stores in just 2 months.

    1. That was awesome I tried to save it so I could listen to the entire thing is there a way , I loved it . My wife was 9 & I was 3 .

    1. I don’t think it’s going to go into a strong phase but the last couple times when its neutral it tends to end up further left on the phase diagram than the models try to forecast. So I am using the educated guess method (the essence of science) to predict a minor phase 8, 1, 2 cycle between December 15 and 31. We will find out. 🙂

  32. Probably good to see the expected rainfall amounts come up a bit from 1-2 inches into the 1.5 to 2.5 range with some isolated 3″ amounts based on the 00z models.

    Appears a few to a handful of hours of very heavy rain in a large area prior to/around sunrise Saturday morning.

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