Saturday Forecast

100 Comments

8:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)
It is sometimes the patterns that don’t look it, that do it. Take this how you’d like to take it. Anyway no big changes in today’s update. A large area of low pressure with a double center, the first passing right over the region and the second taking the inside runner route, bring mild and wet weather to the region today. As the first center passes through this morning and midday, the most widespread rainfall will occur, some of it moderate to heavy, and while there is not much wind for a good portion of the area, Cape Cod will be different, being east of the initial low center there will be a gusty southerly wind there. As the second center basically tracks up the Hudson Valley this evening, a south to southwest wind will freshen across the entire area and one more spoke of energy will produce a round of showers, some of which may be heavy and possibly contain thunder. So while your Saturday night will not be all out rainy from start to finish, if you are traveling be aware that downpours are possible. Any of today’s and this evening’s rainfall can result in some street flooding in poor drainage locations. The dual low centers join to become one powerful storm exiting via eastern Canada on Sunday, and when that happens we usually end up with drier but windy weather, and that will be the case this time. A couple minor tweaks to the Sunday forecast remove the rain shower threat from the early part of the morning and the passing rain/snow shower threat from the day as I think it will be dry. Despite the wind, it won’t be all that cold on Sunday. Winds diminish gradually Sunday evening as colder air settles in. Clouds will already be on the increase Monday ahead of the next system, which is a much smaller and weaker low pressure area from the Ohio Valley. This one will have colder air to work with at the surface and aloft and will likely start as snow in most of if not all of the region late Monday night. The question to be answered is how much warmth gets in aloft to flip the precipitation to ice and rain, depending on surface temperatures. Since this is to be a minor system there’s no need to panic about major impact, but timing would still mean that one or both commutes on Tuesday will be affected by this system. For now going to go with minor to borderline moderate snowfall then a flip to rain South Coast up to around I-90 and mix to the north. A subtle shift in track in either direction will change what happens, so updates will be necessary. Behind that system, a potent disturbance will be dropping out of Canada and may bring a round or two of snow showers/squalls Wednesday. This is also the type of short-lived event that can have a significant impact on local travel, but at day 5 it’s impossible to know yet.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain, moderate to heavy at times morning. Scattered rain showers afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH except S 15-25 MPH Cape Cod this morning, becoming light variable this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers, locally heavy, and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Becoming partly cloudy overnight.
Temperatures steady 51-58 evening. Lows 40-47 overnight. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W overnight.
SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving late evening or overnight – some accumulation expected. Lows 20-27 evening. Temperatures rising overnight. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with mix north, rain south, possibly ending as snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon and evening snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)
The polar jet stream will deliver cold weather for this period, and we’ll have to keep an eye on a piece of energy to the south that develops a storm off the East Coast, possibly close enough to deliver some snow/mix sometime between late December 21 and early December 23.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)
Polar jet stream should remain dominant with seasonably cold to below average cold and a few opportunities for snow showers or periods of light snow from passing disturbances. Currently no major storms expected during this time period which is an important travel period for many people.

100 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. PSA for model users…
    A long-time colleague informed me that his boss contacted NWS about ongoing initialization issues with HRRR & RAP and was informed that they are aware of the problems but will not be addressing them with the current versions of the models being used, but will be waiting until an upgrade scheduled for the spring. So use these products with extreme caution through winter, or avoid using them at all.

    2. Forgive me if this is a stupid question but why close out the fall and go through winter and then go partway into spring before the upgrade? Funding issue and waiting until the next fiscal year?

      1. Given the dedication of the forecasters at NWS, I’m going to confidently guess this has to do with $, and is out of the control of the people who actually use the guidance. šŸ˜‰

    4. I’m very sorry for your loss. So hard to lose a loved one. I am glad you can find some comfort in knowing she’s at peace. Take care of yourself.

    5. Oh Scott. I am so very sorry. What a strong woman to have fought for so long. Hugs and love to you and your family.

    12. I am really sorry scott. May she i reat in peace and god give you and your family strength through this hard time

  5. Thank you, TK.

    Also thanks for the great explanation re temps in Sutton. Everyone on WHW knows how this area and this town varies from one area to the next. Iā€™ve mentioned it enough šŸ™‚ it was 32 at the schools. We were 33 in south Sutton which is actually not typical. We are usually three degrees higher than the center area. Last year multiple times we were just wet while the center area was a winter wonderland with fairly thick ice coating everything, including trees.

    The one sidewalk may have been brick…..Iā€™ll find out from daughter as I stayed in car. Several adults were standing along it to warn people not to walk on it. Our concern was that at that time of night there is no traffic on the back roads….literally, as we saw three cars coming and going the 16 mile round trip. So without traffic the roads stay wet, making black ice easier

    You really have to love natureā€™s whims.

    1. Same thing in the town of Middleborough, Vicki. The town is the second largest in area in the commonwealth, second to Plymouth. 10 towns border Middleborough! During winter storms, it has been raining near the Wareham end and snowing to beat the band “up north” on the Bridgewater border. It give the superintendents fits to whether to postpone school or not.

      1. I didnā€™t realize Middleborough is so large. I can see why it is difficult to decide on snow days. I think Sutton is due more to hills and valleys. Funny too that there are areas where the wind is always stronger. Iā€™m sure due to the same reason as temps.

  8. Elaboration: The HRRR is initializing much too cold if there is snow cover and 1-2 degrees too warm on bare ground.

  10. My mother had a stroke earlier this week. Though she survived the stroke initially, things have turned very badly in the last 48 hours. She’s non-responsive, not eating and drinking. Against all odds, she made it to the age of 90. She overcame many illnesses, but it appears this one will take her. I’m headed to Vermont to see her one final time (her doctor said it’s a matter of a day or two at this point). I will miss my mother so much. More than anyone else she taught me the meaning of life, how to live, how to appreciate life’s moments, how never to just go from point A to B but always smell the roses along the way.

    1. She sounds like a wonderful person. I’m sorry to see you go through this. Travel safely and enjoy her company as much as you can.

    2. My thoughts are with you. Arrive safely. I’m glad you are able to be with her but I wish it was a happier reason.

    4. Sorry to hear Joshua. I am glad you are headed to see her. I found being with my mom before she died somewhat comforting.

    6. Joshua, so sorry you and your family are going through this. Travel safely and I will keep her in my thoughts and prayers.

  11. Scott, there is a wonderful book I learned of after Mac passed. It is called Healing After Loss by Martha Hickman. Itā€™s a compilation of short, daily meditations. Itā€™s easily found at cook stores or on amazon, or If you would be comfortable sharing your address with Brian, Iā€™d love to send it to you.

  12. Hi TK,

    I was wondering could you give me a guess at how the weather might look in Orlando for next weekend. I know itā€™s a week away but my phone keeps showing rain but we know thatā€™s no good.

    Thanks TJ

    1. At the moment, if the pattern works out the way I suspect, the wettest weather would be during the Friday to middle of Saturday and the remainder of the weekend would be dry. I think this is due to southern stream energy that results in a possible snow event about 8 days from now up here.

    1. Don’t pin this to the wall as a final call by any means, because it’s initial idea just over 60 hours before event start…

      I see a coating to 1 inch south of I-90 and a 1-3 inch type snowfall anywhere else. Most of this comes in an initial burst of snow which will then be followed by rain to the south and some type of mix and possible flip to rain/drizzle to the north. But it doesn’t look like the type of rain that “washes everything away”. It’s going to be considerably cooler than the event we are currently experiencing. And cloudy or not, the low sun angle makes a difference too.

      It will be interesting to see how Wednesday’s potential pans out. The bundle of energy that may be coming along the polar jet stream may be rather potent. But that’s too far out into the future to really pin down.

        1. Thanks TK. The tv mets said absolutely nothing about Wednesday other than fair conditions. Donā€™t know about NWS. Weā€™ll keep an eye for Wednesday!

        2. My gut feeling says that will not be a major event, but a “festive” one. However, it’s really far away, so the range of possibilities is rather large at this point in time.

          But I’ve had a vision for a while of something ocean-effect around that time.

  16. Hahaha. Was decorating tree and forgot to look at dashboard. Iā€™m shocked to say 2.19 here.

    And TK the walk that had black ice was brick. Would that make a difference

  17. I am so sorry, Joshua. Try to focus on happy memories and celebrate your mom’s wonderful life. Know of my prayers.

  19. As I indicated, my new Davis Instruments Weather Link Arrived yesterday.
    It works via Wi-Fi and the wireless router and the install was simple.
    $175 from Scientific Instruments as apposed to $250 directly from Davis Instruments.
    It works in conjunction with a smart phone app.

    Anyhow, for anyone interested, here is 8 screen shots taken from it just a bit ago:

    https://imgur.com/a/GrJyvP9

    1. Wow. When I get the time to call accu about my charts, if they donā€™t solve problem I may be looking for a Davis. This is very nice

  20. Seven miles from where daughter and I were last night. A true hero. From Grafton PD

    Last evening at about 9:57 pm, police, fire and EMS personnel responded to Worcester St. and Wheeler Rd. for a motor vehicle crash. On arrival, officers found a vehicle fully submerged in the river near that location. Both occupants were out of the vehicle.

    Investigation revealed that the
    vehicle was heading down Wheeler Rd. and slid on black ice. The operator lost control and the vehicle left the roadway landing in the river. The male driver escaped but the female passenger was trapped. A passing motorist, Chris Etre of Grafton, observed the crash, entered the water and broke a rear window helping the passenger escape before the vehicle became fully submerged. No injuries reported but the occupants were taken to UMass for evaluation.

    The Grafton Police Department wants to recognize and commend Chris Etre for his actions and quick response during this incident. Without his rapid intervention, the outcome could have been tragic.

  21. Gfs and cms showing some icing for Tuesday. looking at the soundings, some areas stay below freezing at surface. Is it possible we are going to see minor or moderace ice on tuesday?

    1. Personally, and I am going by the foreign models, Euro, Ukmet and Icon)
      I think it is a frozen event with snow to sleet to snow and not necessarily ice.
      Just my opinion for what it is worth.

  23. Scott my condolences on your moms passing.
    Joshua I hope your visit brings you the peace and comfort of getting the chance to let her know how much she means to you and how much She is loved. Thoughts and prayers for both of you.

  24. Thank you all again for your nice comments. Vicki, Brian is more than welcome to share my email address with you. So thoughtful of you to share.

  26. On my goodness, just catching up on the blog. So sorry to hear about your moms Joshua and Scott. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

  28. NWS Boston now mentioning what TK was talking about with that possibility of snow showers and snow squalls for Wed. I remember late January last winter getting a quick inch of snow in under a half an hour from one of those snow squalls. In fact there were numerous snow squalls warnings for SNE that afternoon.

    1. Barring a funding disaster (i.e., a very possible government shutdown) I will be doing a poster presentation on the 1/30/19 snow squall event at the AMS conference in Boston in January. It’ll focus mostly on impacts in the mid-Atlantic region and general operational best practices for snow squalls, but I remember that event was impactful in SNE as well and that the squalls began to undergo some very interesting structural changes as they approached the Atlantic coast.

  31. A note on the HRRR to follow up TK’s note from earlier… the upgraded HRRR is already running in an experimental/parallel capacity. It will become operational in the spring. I don’t expect the ongoing issues to be a major problem for forecasting, though it will certainly be wise to be wary of the old HRRR especially during events where low level thermal profiles are important. The RAP is dicey at best anyways. It’s an obsolete model, it basically has the resolution of a global model yet is run on a regional domain for a short period. Wish they’d stop running it altogether. Along those lines, you can expect to see the number of models NCEP runs decrease, not increase, in the coming years. Big changes coming for the US model fleet in the years ahead.

  33. WxW, do you know the future plans for the 32km NAM? It seems to be obsolete itself with the 12 & 3.

    1. That I do not, though I know all the data we look at internally is from the 12km and 3km. And I agree, the 32 seems obsolete given the global models are now much higher resolution than that anyways. Maybe itā€™s left on for research purposes (which I strongly suspect is a big reason the RAP still runs). But I never look at it.

      The 12km NAM is also on the chopping block though. It will go the way of the DGEX eventually, though not before the GFS shows significant improvements in areas the NAM excels at like cold air damming. There will likely be some further simplification among the higher res guidance as well (3km NAM, WRFs, RAP/HRRR) though Iā€™m not sure what the specific plan is. The timelines are flexible and these things tend to take longer to happen as opposed to shorter, but thatā€™s the general idea of where things are heading with the US models based on a couple presentations that have been done by senior leadership.

  34. So sorry to hear the news Scott and Joshua. The pain is rough and I wonā€™t be they person that tells you that it gets easier, bc it doesnā€™t. Hang in there.

    For Tuesday i am thinking the cold hangs tough and we shall see what transpired afterwards through end of the year.

  35. Just returned from NY. Saw the islanders defeat the Sabres in OT this afternoon on Long Island. Great game. Islanders now tied with the Bruins at 46 points for second best record in the NHL, 5 points behind the Capitals and with a couple games in hand.

    2.70ā€ in the rain gauge here…impressive. Just under 5ā€ on the month in what is going to turn out to be the umpteenth month in a row here of above normal precip!

    1. Actually Bruins up to 48 points now with the win tonight. Should be a great matchup when the teams play on Thursday!

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