Tuesday Forecast

215 Comments

7:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Low pressure tracking east northeastward, passing across the South Coast region or just to the south of New England by this evening, will bring a messy day of weather to southeastern New England with snow/sleet/ice/rain, the precipitation type and duration dependent on location, and unfolding pretty much as described yesterday, with snow for most except a quick turn to rain and freezing rain already taking place as of 6AM on the South Coast. The change-over line, which will have more sleet involved in it soon, will progress northward slowly during the morning and first half of the afternoon so that it is in the I-90 / I-95 (to the north) areas while remaining mainly snow near and north of Route 2, and then late in the day through evening the line will head back to the south and southeast allowing all areas to end as snow tonight. See the detailed forecast below for accumulations of snow/ice. As the temperature drops tonight, watch for icy ground especially where rain/mix had occurred. On the heels of this departing system comes an arctic cold front Wednesday, which will produce snow showers and potentially heavier snow squalls sometime from mid afternoon to mid evening. These can cause brief but significant reductions to visibility and also quickly cover surfaces with snow, which can be even more dangerous if there are still areas of ice on the ground. Use caution if walking and/or driving. A blast of arctic air arrives Wednesday night through Thursday, along with wind. As high pressure moves in Friday, it will remain cold but be much more tranquil with lighter wind. The process of fine-tuning an unsettled weather threat for sometime over the weekend continues, and the current idea is that separate jet streams will be the case with a larger system staying well to the south while a weaker one moves in later Saturday with a lighter snow or snow shower threat. Will continue that idea for now.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Snow to rain South Coast, snow to mix I-95 corridor which may include sleet and/or freezing rain, snow NW of I-95 area. Ice accretion of up to 1/4 inch possible eastern CT, northern RI, and adjacent south central MA. Snow accumulation a coating to 1 inch South Coast including Cape Cod, 1-3 inches most of southeastern MA and RI to near Boston, 3-6 inches most areas NW of I-95 from about Route 2 northward. Highs 28-33 I-95 northwestward, 33-38 elsewhere. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with any rain/mix changing back to snow with additional minor accumulation before ending west to east late evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon snow showers/squalls likely. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with evening snow showers possible. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 0-10 at times.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior valleys, 10-15 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day or evening light snow or snow showers possible. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Weak system departs December 22 after an early risk of light snow or snow showers. Fair, seasonably cold weather for the balance of the period with the exception of a risk of a few snow showers sometime December 24 and/or December 25 as a weak disturbance passes through.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)
Down the home stretch of 2019, and expect a moisture-starved low, probably passing north of the region with milder air and a rain shower risk early in the period, then overall fairly dry and seasonably chilly weather as the polar jet stream dominates and a weak subtropical jet stream is held far to the south for the final days of the year.

215 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    thin coating so far of snow grains …..

    Seems to have increased in intensity a bit last 10 minutes

    1. There was dry air to overcome hence the uneven beginning. That dry air will actually help slow down the warming slightly. This is one factor in me keeping the forecast the same as I had yesterday.

    2. Thanks, TK…

      Transitioned to sleet already in Middleborough. Pinging on the car and classroom windows.

      Full day of school! Woo-Hoo! 🙂

        1. When I was a kid and hoping for a snow day, I used to hate to hear it on the window because I knew the snow was changing to rain and we would have classes. 🙂

    1. Who knows regarding Logan.

      NOT AVAILABLE!?! as of 7:00 AM obs.
      …as is most of the New England region. 🙁

      NWS…our tax dollars at work? 😉

  4. This was never going to be a big snow producer. I think TK, myself, and others noted a colder, less precip scenario for this time period. I know people see the 8 day out snow / frozen precip maps from the ECMWF and get that big storm
    potential in their minds but those have about an 1 in 100 verbatim verification rate.

    This is much more of a flat wave or neutral trough – tough too get prolific precip from that set up, but it does tend to keep warming at bay.

    As for the the model warming last night in mid to high resolution models – just as there is a frequent lack of understanding of connective feedback and the false surface reflections generated from convection, there is a similar misunderstanding of false or more often misplaced latent heat transfer from downstream convection. Thus the model and forecast changes we saw last night.

    Light to moderate QPF was always the snow accumulation issue here. I think too much model guidance and a lot of over thinking and forecasting for this middle of the road winter weather event.

    I mentioned a while back the 1st 15 days or so of December was key to snowfall amounts this snow season. I think we have done real well and the melts have kept us from having to deal with dangerous banks, later season snow removal and disposal issues, hidden layers of ice beneath the snow. Best of all worlds.

    Oh and I love sleet too!!

  7. Thank you TK!
    Heavy sleet here in southern Worcester county, we received just a dusting before the changeover. Let’s keep the freezing rain away.

  9. Snow picked up in intensity as I arrived at the office. Just made it to my desk after a consultation with a colleague on a work related issue.

    Holding onto to 28 degrees at home.

  12. Thank you TK and thank you JMA

    Freezing rain in Sutton also. Schools closed wisely Sutton. Uxbridge also but haven’t checked other towns.

    Temp 25

  15. Its pretty easy to tell from looking at the radar, the snow/sleet line.

    The splotchy looking echoes are the sleet, the smooth green echoes in northern Mass is snow.

    1. be interesting to see on the transition line, where the column is marginal, if this heavier precip causes northern sleet areas to briefly mix with or change back to snow for a bit.

    2. Still SNOW in Boston. How long it stays that way? Who knows. I suspect
      not much longer, but we shall see. Still 28 at home in JP.

  17. Coworker just called to let me know he is trying to get to Plymouth via 495 and there are cars going off the road all over the place. He is in Taunton area.

      1. Yup, tis SNOW and NOT sleet. It has been snowing for more
        than 4 hours now and perhaps 1 stinken inch on the ground. 🙂

          1. 🙂 🙂
            4 hours, 1 inch = 1/4 inch per hour. WOW!!
            Can’t handle that snowfall rate! Just too intense. 🙂

  19. Interesting….
    the latest HRRR (regular, not V4) keeps it mostly frozen in Boston the whole
    way with about 3 1/2 inches kuchera with about 1/2 to 3/4 inch tomorrow in snow
    squalls. 🙂

        1. Well I’m expecting it to verify as written above. I think Boston is about 1/3 to one half way there with snow from this.

  21. How much qpf is expected? Will it even make 0.50? It seems that whatever falls is generally light so far. The snow that did fall earlier was barely moderate by my take.

  29. Hey all,

    Haven’t posted in over a year. Report from the desirable west-side of Woburn…not snowing at the moment, can still see tip of grass blades. I’ll take it. I know we have a ways to go, but hoping we don’t get too much. My brother is flying in from Afghanistan today and I am on airport pickup this evening. Hoping for no delays!

  30. Thanks TK! Morning thoughts…

    *Snow will mostly under-perform today, but plenty of freezing rain has already caused travel issues and will continue to, though right now it doesn’t look like we’ll see enough for more than isolated tree/power line impacts.

    *Scattered but intense snow squalls tomorrow. Best chances to the west but fair game everywhere.

    *Bone dry for the remainder of 2019. Initially a (very) cold and dry for the end of this week, gradually becoming more of a warm and dry over the holidays. A green Christmas for most though there could be some piles and light icy coatings that stick around through the holiday.

    *Possible return to more wintry weather early in 2020 as cold air starts to reload over Canada, but may take as long as a couple of weeks.

    2. Yes I’ve heard a couple of tv Mets saying warner Xmas week and Harvey said today’s storm should be it for now . How does Boston do tonight with this so called backend snow , does it really materialize.

  31. Maybe a 1/2 inch of snow in Amesbury and light snow right now. Kind of surprised at all the school closings today.

  33. Nasty here in Coventry, CT with light to moderate freezing rain and temp at 27. We received about 0.5″ of snow and now everything is glazed over with probably an 1/8″ of ice accretion.

    Roads are not good and schools are closed again. This is now our third snow day of the month and fourth missed school day overall on the year counting that Fall wind storm. Winter hasn’t even started yet! They may be going to school until June 30 this year….

  34. .5 of an inch here in mass, the NWS is still calling for 3 to 6 inches for my area and unless its going to snow throughout the day I do not think I will reach even the low end of those numbers.

  35. Well it’s quiet on the north shore for the moment but about to get hit by a yellow blob on the radar Sort of looks like icy stuff and I am about to drive downtown.

  36. Does anyone know what’s up with Barry Burbank? I know his name was mentioned here weeks ago, but I didn’t see an answer or I missed it. His last Twitter entry was early November. I hope all is well with Barry.

    1. I saw him in the new tv promos with the rest of the Accuweather team. If he was ill or whatever he seems ok now.

      1. Let’s hope. Maybe he went on an extended vacation!
        Wasn’t he recently inducted into the state’s Broadcasters Hall of Fame?

  37. From Ryan Hanrahan
    The 18 HRRR upped the ante some with a band of 6″-8″ of snow in central CT! So what happened? Not totally sure but I have to imaging the big convection associated with the tornadoes last night in the SE US played a role in modulating the flow and moisture transport.

  40. Still 28 at my house in JP.
    I cannot tell precip type from my office window. I will be headed out in a few.
    Visibility indicates to me it is more snow or frozen drizzle than it is sleet.
    Vis goes way up with sleet and it has remained low.
    What I see out the window is floating around, not indicative of sleet.

  42. Nearly 2 inches Reading. Still snowing. Mixed with sleet. Changeover like will halt shortly.

    Forecast on track.

  45. Even to the east of the coastal front, the harbor buoy wind direction is beginning to back from 070 to 060.

    Coastal communities S and E of Boston are probably going to see water begin to freeze up on surfaces as the afternoon progresses.

      2. Sure agree and all of the commuters. Talked to son who routes transports throughout the state. He said all areas are slow and need caution.

  47. Daughter 8 miles from here in Uxbridge has 2-3 inches of slush and ice accumulation on tree branches. We might have 1/4 inch. And some ice starting to show on limbs. Roads are dicey. But then you’d expect them to be.

  48. Looking at radar there appears to be a giant dry slot, I wonder if it will fill in with time this afternoon.

  49. I’m currently at work but from the house cam I can see the pines are starting to droop a bit. The weather station at my house says 28.5. My wife stayed home with the kids and says it’s all freezing rain.

  55. Just came in. We’re up to 32 and the sleet just ended and it is now RAINING.
    Freezing? I do not think so.

    1. Somewhere in between. Most of the snow will be on the lower side of my ranges. Overall things are going about as expected.

  62. I just drove from Reading to Woburn via 129 to the Wakefield line, onto 95S and 93S and off at Montvale Ave onto local roads. All of the roads were in fair to good condition, wet with thin layers of slush between lanes. Traffic was at to slightly below the speed limit, but volume was light, so I got home about 5 minutes more quickly than usual (for this time of year, this time of day).

    One side road I was on was on the slick side, rough ice but not that slippery. Walkways are not sheet ice, but are rough ice. Caution definitely required on foot!

    1. I was out. The VFW parkway on the Roslindale/W. Roxbury line was an
      absolute mess. As bad as I have ever seen a road. Just that one section
      which holds onto snow longer than any place around and is well shaded
      and road surface always colder than surrounding areas. All other areas
      were a piece of cake. No issues whatsoever.

      1. Funny how there can be such local variation like that. I’ve experienced similar in a few areas. One was a cement road in Lowell. That would hold snow/ice much longer than the asphalt, for obvious reasons.

  63. Ice totals from CT. From Ryan Hanrahan. Some of these towns are on the shoreline and don’t often see them get that much ice.
    Ice totals through 2 p.m. – Bridgeport – 0.40″, New Haven – 0.33″, Danbury – 0.31″. Windham – 0.28″, Groton/Meriden/Hartford – 0.24″, BDL – 0.22″.

    1. Those patterns are funny. That driveway I posted earlier was someone else’s but it looked like the condition mine is in without the spots!

      1. I did see you mentioned it wasn’t yours. I wondered at the time what caused that or if it were kids and sidewalk chalk. So I laughed out loud when I looked out and saw mine

  66. Hey all,

    Haven’t posted in over a year. Report from the desirable west-side of Woburn…not snowing at the moment, can still see tip of grass blades. I’ll take it. I know we have a ways to go, but hoping we don’t get too much. My brother is flying in from Afghanistan today and I am on airport pickup this evening. Hoping for no delays!

  67. The southern and northern streams may be so far apart by the weekend that I may have no choice but to remove that light snow threat from the forecast. However, this reconfiguration means that two disturbances will be nearby in the December 23-24 time frame instead. Nothing major. Just possible snow showers.

    I’m still not sure where this “warm up” for Christmas is coming from. Maybe seasonably cold. SAK agrees. We may have one “milder” day just after Christmas as a low passes north of here (27th-28th is the window I’m looking at for that). The first sign of a warming trend I see lasting more than 1 or 2 days is…. Hmm I’m not sure I actually see one at this point.

      1. Before that. 😉

        I honestly don’t see anything that resembles more than brief mild interludes. I don’t see any stretches of mild to warm weather.

        I don’t see a whole lot of storminess either.

        1. Please keep looking.
          Either way, I do not see today’s snow holding on until
          Christmas. Looks like NO White Christmas for SNE.

          1. Well I’m not 100% off the weekend idea. There’s still time for a little something there. But either way, I like the type of pattern we’re in. I can leave behind the persistent warmth. I’ll take it colder. 🙂 Even if it’s dry! I remember a lot of cold/dry weather as a kid and bare ground Christmases. 🙂

  69. Weather Wiz your comment is approved. The last time you posted I think either there was no space in your name or you had a different email (I didn’t bother finding out). That’s why it went to moderation.

        1. What could go wrong? Driving to the easiest airport in the world to navigate (sarcasm here) during peak traffic time replete with flight delays.

          1. Been there done that. 🙂 You may be pleasantly surprised though this time. Let me know how it goes.

  70. Some heavier stuff about to move into Boston. Rain? Likely. Wonder if heavy
    enough to promote sleet or mix?

    1. Initially rain there. Once I get snow here in Woburn, Boston should be about 1 hour away from seeing it.

      I also am starting to see signs of a little boundary nearby tomorrow morning that may produce minor accumulating snow between 4AM & 8AM.

    1. I think the operative words for next week around Xmas Eve and again around the 27-28th would be “moderating temps”. I don’t know where all the talk about a big warmup is coming from either and I posted on that yesterday. Perhaps people are just looking at the 850mb temps on the models and ignoring what is actually happening at the surface?

    1. Yup, coastal front hasn’t moved SE as I thought it would, it’s actually made a bit of progress to the west.

  74. Studying the pattern a bit more closely…

    That “dry cutter” may actually end up passing south of us a couple to a few days after Christmas.

  76. Was pouring here and it is what ended up costing everything with a decent layer of ice. First time today we had a thick layer on trees and anything else you can see rather than just walks and roads

    1. They are generally good. Perhaps some data is estimated as there are a lack of co-op observers in some locations, but this is a decent idea.

      Snowiest December in quite some time. We’ll see more of these in the next 15 to 30 years. Thank you AMO. 🙂

    1. It’s actually a sort-of-synoptic banding feature. A little atmospheric perturbation behind the departing low.

  79. Add another 1.1 to the season snowfall total for Boston. I believe there up to 10.4 inches for December. BDL is now up to 20.3 for the season. The normal for the season is 40.5 inches of snow.

  80. The difference between the 12z surface forecast for December 27 on the ECMWF & GFS is comical. Completely opposite wind directions. 😛

      1. We have excellent commercial salt Vicki we get it by the pallets 50 bags per pallet . Seems to be ok now till the snow starts we are here all night I’m exhausted.

        1. Hmmm. We can’t use salt on cement walks and steps but SIL will have to find some tomorrow for the driveway.

  84. TK there is a pretty thick ice accretion here. Do you think this should melt enough tomorrow before the front with the high winds come through? Just concerned about snapping tree branches and power issues. Thanks.

  89. Mark, if any change to your totals for today, please post and I’ll update and
    post the spreadsheet. 🙂

  95. Not a lot of power outages. Fewer than a handful in Oxford, Franklin, Chelmsford and Amesbury. According to ngrid map

  97. Vicki the December 2010 storm started on December 26th and went into the 27th. This is one of the storms I listed as my most memorable storm of this decade. I hope others will share there most memorable storms or weather events of this decade.

  98. Logan and Blue Hill have dropped in temp, coastal front moving back SE.

    00z NAM showing a small amount of snow overnight.

  99. Been snowing lightly here now for several hours despite the radar not showing much. It’s producing a light coating on top of the thick layer of ice covered snow from earlier. really treacherous to walk or drive on right now. I’m hearing of a lot of spinouts on the highways.

    Widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ ice accretions reported across CT today with Stratford topping the list at 0.55″

    Dave, if we are counting ice along with the snow, you can put me up to 1″ for today with the 0.5″ of snow from this am, followed by 0.35″ ice accretion and the additional light snow falling tonight.

  100. With our upcoming trip to Bermuda, I have been closely following the weather for 2
    weeks now and have learned a bit about their winter weather.

    It takes high pressure directly overhead to get a sunny day.

    Anytime post cold front with cool or cold, dry air coming off the US moving over the warm ocean bubbles up lots of cumulus and scattered showers (ocean effect).

    As soon as the high retreats and the wind goes SE or S, lots of stratus return and the dp’s jump to 65F to 70F, as the ocean not too far south of them is 74F +.

    Trying to get an early look post Christmas, seems they’ll start with the ocean effect scattered showers with 60s, one day of high pressure, then hopefully a day or so of southerly flow with 70s and higher humidity. I want to experience warmth !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  101. I-91 Hartford to Mass line is bad right now according a tweet from Ryan Hanrahan. No surprise with widespread delayed openings for schools across CT tomorrow.

    1. I’ll be shocked if there are not at least delays here tomorrow. Crazy icy and our roads has not been touched since around 3:00. But I never underestimate Sutton DPW

  102. South Central to answer your earlier question I don’t think there will be a whole lot of melting. We should see a great deal of sublimation Thursday and Friday.

  103. SSK to answer your earlier question…

    Yes it does get a little quieter after this but not completely. I’m still watching the possibility of a light snow event sometime this weekend.

  105. After the squalls tomorrow, its definitely looking fairly quiet for the next 10 days through Christmas week.

    But 00z GFS finally showing something of interest in the long range as we get into the last few days of 2019 and start of the new year…..

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019121800&fh=282

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019121800&fh=342

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